My fully detailed rankings were last updated on June 7th. Since then, my ratings have changed in 10 races - Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Delaware, Nevada and North Dakota have moved to a more competitive category while Arizona, Connecticut and Hawaii has been moved to the safe category. A full update will come soon, for now here are the latest ratings:
| Safe GOP | Likely GOP | Lean GOP | Toss-up | Lean Dem | Likely Dem | Safe Dem | |
| Dem-held | ND DE (open) |
AR NV |
CO PA |
IL (open) |
CA CT IN NY-B WI |
HI MD NY-A OR VT WA |
|
| GOP-held | AL AK AZ GA KS (open) IA ID OK SC SD UT |
LA |
FL (open) NC |
KY (open) MO (open) NH (open) OH (open) |
All I can say is “wow.”
Nowhere else have I seen a discussion of ALL the Senate races, or at least a ranking of them all.
Very impressive.
As I’ve said before, the Sununu-Shaheen race (NH) is more complex than just the McCain effect and GOP money. Shaheen is unpopular in quarters you’d expect to provide strong support: the GOP moderates and Demo Left. There’s a lot of simmering anger over taxes, but in the opposite direction - her failure to push aggressively for a broad-base tax to eliminate the prolonged crisis over school funding and sky-rocketing local property taxes. That translates into a perception of her as a weak and opportunistic figure. These votes don’t migrate to Sununu en masse, though some will, but manifest themselves by their absence from her vote tally.
You missed Nevada’s Reid election. A poll just published by Mason-Dixon Polling says that both Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden would both beat Harry Reid - 48-43 for Tarkanian and 49-39 for Lowden. She is the former head of the GOP in the state and he is an attorney and real estate developer (and son of the famous UNLV basketball coach).
Almost anyone they put up against Reid shows Reid losing. Thank God.
Jim Bunning has retired.
In Delaware: His name is Ted Kaufman, and Mike Castle is running, I think its time you update your details.
Ed Graveline and Patrick S, all of these things have been analyzed and discussed at length on the front page on which I post daily, as well as on the recruitment page. But as you can I’m sure imagine it takes time to write-up full rankings for 36 races, so updating this page is going to have to wait. I recently updated all the Governor’s races, so you can check there for a recent overview of the situation.
Your prediction are not correct. Everyone knows the democrats will be losing seats.