Rep. John Murtha dies

Published
by
Taniel
on February 8, 2010
in PA-12
. 5 Comments

Rep. John Murtha died this afternoon due to complications following gallbladder surgery. The 77-year old had represented Western Pennsylvania in the House since winning a special election in 1974, which made him the chamber’s 8th most senior member in the current Congress.

A longtime member of the Appropriations Committee, he directed billions of dollars towards his district and his hometown of Johnstown, a hard-hit region that came to rely on Murtha’s unapologetically aggressive earmarking. Murtha was also a close ally of Nancy Pelosi, and he played a key role in helping the California congresswoman rise in the Democratic leadership. In 2006, Pelosi backed his bid to become Majority Leader in the aftermath of the 2006 midterms.  Murtha lost to Rep. SteveSteny Hoyer but he moved on to chair the House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, which made him all the more powerful.

Murtha’s final years in Congress will perhaps be best known for his decision to call for a withdrawal of U.S. troops out of Iraq in early 2005; his statement came at a time the Democratic establishment was still largely hostile to withdrawal, and the generally hawkish Murtha, with his strong ties to the defense industries, was the last congressman who would have been expected to lead his party towards an anti-war stance. This led to an ugly incident on the House floor when GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt called Murtha a coward, leading to ten minutes of chaos that ended with Schmidt withdrawing her comments. Yet, in his final years Murtha also attracted criticism over his stance on ethics reform and over corruption allegations against groups in his entourage. While Murtha himself was never investigated, questions arose over his ties to the PMA Group, a lobbying shop raised by the FBI in 2008 that had been able to secure hundreds of millions of dollars of earmarks from Murtha, as well as to other organizations.

I will let you dig more information about Murtha in news outlets like The Washington Post and will move on to this blog’s main beat: What happens next in PA-12? With Murtha’s district now vacant, a special election will be organized, yet another major headache for Democrats at a time they cannot ill afford any more electoral setbacks.

Located in southwestern Pennsylvania, this district is the type of area in which Democrats once dominated but are now struggling as Appalachia’s formerly coal-mining, working-class electorate moved away from the party and towards the GOP. In fact, PA-12 is the only district in the country to have switched from John Kerry in 2004 to John McCain in 2008; in 2000, Al Gore had prevailed by 11%, which means the district took significant rightward drift over the past decade.

In short: The DCCC has to defend a McCain district with voters who were predisposed to punishing Democrats even before they were disproportionately affected by the economic crisis; this makes for a strong pick-up opportunity for Republicans.

However, numerous factors should favor Democrats, the first of which is the election’s timing.

State law gives Governor Ed Rendell 10 days to call a special election, which has to be scheduled at least 60 days after his proclamation. It is highly likely Rendell will choose to hold the general election on May 18th, which is the day of Pennsylvania’s regularly scheduled primaries. Why might that help the Democratic nominee? Democrats are hosting two highly competitive primaries for the Senate and Governor’s races while the Republican primaries are largely uncontested at this point. That means turnout should be higher among Democratic voters, who will have many other reasons to go out to the polls than to vote for Murtha’s successor.

Consider that May 18th will mark the culmination of the rough Specter-Sestak battle, which is now starting to heat up and on which millions will be spent by Election Day; that should sure boost Democratic turnout. Consider also that one of the front-runners in the party’s gubernatorial primary is Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, who will put together a heavy turnout machine in Western Pennsylvania, which is his geographic base (in fact, parts of Allegheny County are in PA-12). Some unions are sure to be heavily involved in both Democratic primaries, and as such they will be major players in turning out voters in PA-12, which is heavily unionized.

Whether they are going to the polls to vote for Specter or Sestak, Onorato or Jack Wagner, most of these Democratic voters will be likely to also punch the ballot for whoever Democrats nominate in the PA-12 special election. The Republican nominee should receive less help, as there will be less players ensuring GOP voters head to the polls (Tom Corbett and Pat Toomey don’t face much competition in the statewide primaries).

Second, PA-12 is mostly Democratic at the local level, which means that the party has a strong bench to choose from.

That should not only also guarantee Democrats not suffer the same fate as in KS-3 or LA-3, open seats in which they are struggling to field a candidate, but that they will have a solid contender. Names that are mentioned include Mark Singel, who served as Lieutenant Governor from 1987 to 1995; state Senator John Wozniak, who has represented Johnstown since 1996; state Senator Richard Kasunic, who has been serving since 1994; state Rep. Bryan Barbin; state Rep. Tad Harhai; and still many other state legislators. (State Rep. Bill DeWeese, who once served as state Speaker, probably cannot run given the criminal charges he is now facing.) The Republican bench is far weaker. The GOP has two candidates currently in the race, Tim Burns and William Russell, its 2008 nominee whom conservatives rallied behind late in the cycle; the NRCC spent more than $1 million on his behalf in the campaign’s final weeks.

The twist: Pennsylvania special elections have no primaries. Just as happens in New York (as we learned in 2009 with vacancies in NY-20 and NY-23), a committee of county party chairs meets to determine a candidate.

This should create quite a confusing situation: Whoever the county chairs place on the general election ballot will not have first established their legitimacy through a primary vote, which means these anointed candidates could face challenges from other members of the party for the right to be the nominee on November’s regularly scheduled ballot. And here is where things get really complicated: If Rendell calls the special election on May 18th, the special election’s general election and the regular election’s primary races will be held on the same day!

This could mean that whoever is nominated in the special election has to fight the opposing party’s candidate while at the same time battling opponents from his own party. If such scenarios occur, all bets are off as to how much support the candidates can expect from their party’s base and how united the respective camps will be. (It’s difficult to predict which party is most at risk here: Democrats have a deeper bench, and thus more potential for politicians seeking to move up, but as we saw in NY-23 the GOP electorate’s mood makes Republicans more receptive to ideological disagreements.)

In short, the PA-12 special has the potential to be just as wild as that in NY-23. While I have tried to argue Democrats have a stronger chance than we would think based on the fact that McCain won the district, there is no question that the DCCC is at serious risk of seeing its streak of 9 consecutive special election victories interrupted.

New House ratings show brutally unbalanced map

Published
by
Taniel
on February 8, 2010
in 2010-general and Ratings
. 15 Comments

House Projected Composition February 2010

When I first put together this cycle’s House ratings last spring, I found the landscape to be remarkably balanced: 62 GOP-held seats and 68 Dem-held seats were on the map, with both parties defending a relatively comparable number of seats in the most competitive categories - 18 for Republicans, 28 for Democrats. The eight months that have passed since then have been rough for the DCCC, and it will surprise nobody that my new House ratings look radically different.

The number of Republicans seats that are worth keeping an eye on has plummeted to 34, while many more Democratic seats are on the map today than there were in the spring: 89.

This disparity is as stark when we only consider the most vulnerable categories (lean retention and above): At the moment, the GOP has to worry about just 13 of its seats compared to 43 for Democrats - just above the magic number of 41 seats Republicans need to pick-up to regain a majority, though the DCCC has somewhat of a lifeline with the three GOP-held seats it has a great shot at picking-up (DE-AL, IL-10 and LA-02).

Some of Democrats’ troubles have come from the retirements that have befell the party since November: Had they not been open, AR-01, KS-03, NH-02, TN-06 or WA-03 would either not have been on the map at all or they would have hovered in the potentially competitive column. Instead, they have become some of the DCCC’s biggest headaches. That said, it does appear that Democrats did manage to keep the floodgates closed. But while the GOP does not have as many retirements to exploit as it would like, they have pulled many remarkable recruitment coups in districts that had been uncontested for years, sometimes for decades. As the cycle started, who could have expected that AR-02, MO-04, ND-AL, PA-08, PA-17, SC-05 or WV-01 would find themselves on our radar screen?

Republicans should not expect to sweep all vulnerable seats. For one, a red wave wil not make itself felt equally in all the states, e.g. NY Democrats could be in better form since they’ll probably be helped by Cuomo’s coattails. Second, a number of incumbents who have prepared themselves for a tough run since the cycle started should survive - just as Reps. Gerlach, Kirk, Reichert or Shays managed to win one or both of their 06/08 contests. This is why I have for now maintained all Democratic incumbents in the toss-up category; I fully expect the party to lose many, perhaps most, of its vulnerable districts (AL-02, CO-04, FL-24, ID-01, MD-01, NM-02, NV-03, OH-01, VA-02, VA-05), but for now we have little evidence but the national environment, which makes it all but impossible to differentiate between them.

Conversely, a number of Democrats who at the moment appear to be keeping their head above the water could easily find themselves submerged if the environment is as toxic as the GOP is hoping; this includes incumbents like Reps. Altmire (PA-04), Dahlkemper (PA-03), Pomeroy (ND-AL), Salazar (CO-03), Matheson (UT-02), Boucher (VA-09), Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Davis (TN-04) and others. While many of these districts are likely to rise to the more competitive categories by the time all is said and done, it goes without saying that efforts to expand the map often fail (see Democrats’ utter failures in IN-03 and ME-Sen in the past cycle), and it is simply too early to differentiate between the Democrats’ marginally vulnerable seats.

Besides the prospect of getting at least get something to campaign if they manage to pass some major legislation or the hope that the economic recovery will make itself felt by the fall, Democrats are banking on two additional wild cards. The first is the possibility that Republican primaries complicate the party’s chances in some districts. Doug Hoffman is for instance threatening to mount yet another third-party bid in NY-23 if he loses the GOP nomination; other primaries could produce a weaker candidate because of crowded fields in which anything is possible, which is arguably what happened to the GOP in last week’s IL-Gov and IL-10 primaries. (Look no further than what happened in 2008 to Democrats in LA-06 and NY-26 or what happened to Republicans in MD-01 to see how perfect opportunities can be ruined by brutal primaries.)

The second major wild card is the GOP’s financial limitation: The NRCC does not have a lot of money, especially when compared to the millions the DCCC relied on to bankroll the blue waves in 2006 and in 2008. That means a number of promising challengers could find themselves swamped come the fall, when well-financed incumbents and the DCCC go all-out to attack them while national Republicans has to prioritize some districts over others in a way that was less problematic for Democrats in the past two cycles. Might they still be rescued by independent groups, which will no longer have to abide by spending restrictions?

Without further delay, here are my rating charts. There is unfortunately no district-by-district explanation (while I have done that in the past, I would have no more time to do any other blogging work if I attempted to pull it off again), but you will find a handy graphic showing the projected balance of power.

House Ratings February 2010

House Detailed Projected Composition February 2010

Illinois confusion

Published
by
Taniel
on February 7, 2010
in IL-Gov
. 10 Comments

[Updated with Cohen's withdrawal.] If Illinois’s federal primaries were resolved with little drama on Tuesday, the results of the state-level contests has left the political situation confused for both parties.

Quinn survives, for now

What we know: Incumbent Pat Quinn will be the Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee. I for one did not think he would survive the primary given the evidence that Treasurer Dan Hynes’s brutal attacks had taken a big toll on Quinn, but at the end of the day the governor held off his aggressive challenger by just 3,087 votes out of 912,695 cast - a difference of 0.33%. (Illinois has no automatic recount and Hynes chose to concede the race.) The more progressive of the two candidates, Quinn will thus have a chance to win a full term this fall, nearly two years after he was elevated to the Governor’s Mansion upon Rod Blagojevich’s impeachment.

Quinn’s victory arguably gives Republicans a better shot at winning this race, and this for a very simple reason: Nearly all incumbents have been growing unpopular since states sank in fiscal crises and voters seem determined to reject many governors as they can. In a blue state like Illinois, this should make it easier for the GOP to convince voters who typically vote Democratic to cross-over. (A recent PPP poll shows Hynes performing 7% to 12% better than Quinn.) Just as Democrats would have been better off had Corzine been replaced, just as I no longer think Charlie Crist is the GOP’s best general election bet, just as Ted Strickland, Chet Culver and Bill Ritter’s fortunes collapsed during 2009, so does Pat Quinn enter the general election weighed down by a mediocre approval rating and by the need to defend not only his economic record but also his ties to Blagojevich.

(Quinn has never been close to Blagojevich, who did not tap him to be Lieutenant Governor, but he will still have to work hard to distance himself from the man with whom he shared the ticket. Democrats should be all the more worried about the former governor weighing them down that his trial is scheduled to start in the fall of 2010, two months before Election Day.)

Yet, Quinn is by no means out of the race. Like the other incumbents who were elevated to their state without running for it, he is less defined than other governors and he thus has more room to grow. Second, Illinois remains a Democratic state, one in which Barack Obama’s involvement could pay more dividends than it might elsewhere. And third, the GOP might have nominated a weaker nominee than it was expected to.

Brady holds on to a 420 vote-lead

While most expected a victor to emerge among state Senator Kirk Dillard, former Attorney General Jim Ryan and former state party chair Andy McKenna, a fourth candidate came out ahead of the initial count: state Senator Bill Brady leads his closest competitor Kirk Dillard by just 420 votes - which is to say 20,3% to 20,2%! As many as 11,000 absentee and provisional ballots might still have to be added to the tally, so Dillard could still grab the lead. It should take another 10 days for a final count to be available.

While Brady’s lead is being portrayed as an upset, it shouldn’t be surprising. Not only did polls show that this was really anyone’s contest to win, but he was the only Republican candidate not from Chicagoland! That geographic advantage allowed him to dominate downstate and become a contender statewide. When a primary features 6 candidates who have a credible shot at the nomination, it is obvious that anything can happen since a very small share of the vote is needed to secure victory. On Tuesday, just 12% separated the first vote-getter from the sixth vote-getter!

If Brady holds on to his lead, the GOP will have nominated the second-most conservative candidate among those who were running (the first being Tea Party-favorite Adam Andrzejewski, who got 14%), which could give Democrats ammunition to convince Illinois’s left-leaning electorate to stick with the party they usually vote for. In particular, Brady opposes abortion including in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s life is in danger, he supports allowing the teaching of creationism, and he is conservative profile on fiscal matters; the 10% across-the-board cut he advocates, which would cut billions from education or Medicaid program, should be hard to defend in a blue state.

Dillard (who appeared in one of Barack Obama’s ads during the 2008 presidential campaign) and Ryan (who has already won a statewide victory) could have made it tougher for Quinn to turn the spotlight on his opponent and thus prevent the race from becoming a referendum on his own tenure. This did not work for the Democratic candidates in Virginia and in New Jersey, but Christie and McDonnell were high-profile Republicans the national party was determined to push through the finish line. We will have to see how much traction Brady’s campaign can gain compared to the one Ryan and McKenna were expected to mount.

On the other hand, if Brady survives the primary it could boost Rep. Mark Kirk’s chances over in the Senate race. If the GOP ticket is headlined by two relatively moderate Republicans from the Chicago suburbs (Kirk and Dillard), it could make it harder for the party to ensure heavy turnout downstate. With Brady on the ballot, however, Republicans could have a more balanced candidate, with one candidate who could ensure downstate conservatives go to the polls and once there also punch the ballot for their party’s Senate nominee.

The Scott Cohen saga

While all eyes were on the senatorial and gubernatorial primaries, however, Democrats got a huge surprise in a race that apparently no one was paying attention to: the primary for Lieutenant Governor. Scott Cohen, a pawnbroker who had never before ran for office, spent heavily from his personal fortune but was not taken seriously enough for either the local press nor nor his rival candidates to spend time vetting him. In a 6-way race in which all candidates got double-digits (!), he prevailed with just 26% of the vote over state Rep. Turner, who received 22%.

Since then, Democrats have been scrambling to address the avalanche of damaging stories that is now surrounding the man who will now be running near the top of their ticket; most discussed are a 2005 domestic battery charge, which was later dropped, and Cohen’s divorce file, which contains allegations of violent acts made by his former wife, who reportedly successfully sought a restraining order against Cohen because she felt threatened by fits of rage caused by steroid use. Also damning are allegations that he missed $54,000 of child-support payment.

I am somewhat uncomfortable condemning someone based on charges he was never tried on - let alone convicted - as that would obviously open the door to huge breaches of the presumption of innocence and of due process. (This of course speaks to a broader problem since people often finding themselves weighed down by charges in their daily activities like searching for a job or housing, even when these charges end up being dropped or even when they are cleared.) Yet, there is no question that all of these stories open up very problematic questions for Cohen to address, particularly the restraining order his former wife obtained and the missed child-support payments.

This has put Democrats in a huge bind: While the nominees for Governor and Lieutenant Governor are selected separately, they run on a ticket so Quinn’s prospects are now tied to Cohen’s!

Since it is difficult to envision Cohen not costing Quinn a lot of votes, Democrats are now trying to find a solution, the easiest of which would be convincing their new nominee to drop out: Quinn, Senator Dick Durbin and Attorney General Lisa Madigan all called on him to do so this week, but can Cohen be persuaded to give up on a race on which he has already spent $2 million?

While The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that Cohen is leaning towards stepping down, the alternative Democrats are considering would be jaw-droppingly radical, as The Daily Herald reports:

If [Cohen] does not [resign], Durbin and others say Quinn can consider the possibility of running without him by leaving the Democratic Party. It’s happened before. In 1986, Democrat Adlai Stevenson III created the Illinois Solidarity Party to avoid running with a lieutenant governor candidate who was a follower of frequent presidential candidate Lyndon LaRouche. Stevenson lost to Republican Gov. Jim Thompson.

Interestingly, the GOP primary also yielded a surprise, as few expected low-profile 27-year old Jason Plummer to pull it off over state Senator Matt Murphy, but Republicans have received no further surprises.

Update: As is already being discussed in the comments, Cohen announced last night that he was withdrawing, an obvious relief for Democrats that allows them to no longer dream of extreme solutions like having the governor run on an independent ticket. The state party committee will now choose a replacement for Cohen. By the fall, we will have forgotten all about the Cohen saga, so this should really not impact the Quinn’s prospects - nor do I think Democrats have much to fear from the fact that one of their nominees will not have gone through a primary: Unless candidates for Lieutenant Governor become hugely controversial, they will not play an important role in deciding the general election.

Weekly update: As Coats’s baggage mounts, Dems land their first candidates in DE & ND

Published
by
Taniel
on February 6, 2010
in CA-12, CT-Gov, MD-Gov, ND-Sen, recruitment and retirement
. 8 Comments

The 2010 cycle got its official launch this week as Illinois hosted the first primary of the year. State voters put an end to brutal intraparty battles, though the GOP’s gubernatorial primary has yet to produce a clear winner (more on Illinois soon.) The other states that monopolized our attention are Delaware, where New Castle County Executive Chris Coons entered the Senate race, and Indiana, where former Senator Dan Coats came out of nowhere to announce he was preparing to challenge the man who replaced him, Evan Bayh.

While Coats is obviously a major threat to Bayh’s re-election, his move in the race was followed by an avalanche of stories that he will struggle to overcome. The latest episode: A video filmed in 2008 in which he says he is planning to retire in North Carolina, footage that could haunt him the same way Tom Dashle’s “I’m a D.C. resident” damaged his 2004 campaign. This video will be all the more damaging that Coats changed his voter registration to Virginia as soon as he left office ten years ago. The continued drip of revelations about Coats’s lobbying clients is also sure to give Democrats major ammunition. Coats spent ten years paying no attention to how his actions and words might play in an electoral context, which is now making him an opposition researchers’ dream.

In North Dakota, Democrats got their first Senate candidate: first-term state Senator Tracy Potter announced this week he will take on Governor John Hoeven. (Former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp had been getting the most buzz, but she has yet to clarify her plans.) The Republican is obviously heavily favored to pick-up this seat and while Democrats now have a credible candidate in case Hoeven self-implodes due to some bizarre scandal, that’s probably all Potter can pull off.

Interestingly, Potter has a long political career that started with his activism on behalf of North Dakotan Eugene McCarthy in the 1972 presidential election. While the Democrat plans to tout himself as a centrist, the Grand Folk Herald notes that he was a prominent member of the Prairie Campaign for Economic Democracy, a group that sought to strengthen the state party’s progressive wing in the 1970s; in 1980, he walked out of the Democratic convention in protest over Jimmy Carter’s renomination. Another interesting fact: In 1984, he lost the Democratic primary to be insurance commissioner to Earl Pomeroy, who went on to win the general election and now serves in the House.

In Arkansas, Rep. John Boozman formally announced his challenge to Senator Blanche Lincoln. Since it was already all but certain he would do so 9 days ago, I already analyzed his move at length last week and I refer you to that post for why Boozman’s entry goes a long way towards sealing Lincoln’s fate and why the GOP is clearly favored to defend his open seat (AR-03).

In Maryland, it is looking increasingly likely former Governor Bob Ehrlich will seek a rematch against Marty O’Malley, who defeated him in 2006. The Washington Post reports Ehrlich has been lining up fundraising events; “I’m willing to serve,” he said to the Post. While he added he would not make up his mind until March, that alone signals he is leaning towards running: pulling out of the race so late would make it next to impossible for the GOP to find a back-up. Larry Hogan, who looked like the probable Republican nominee before the Ehrlich buzz increased, ended his exploratory committee this week. “I am convinced [Ehrlich] will run,” he explained.

In Connecticut, both parties have their front-runners but there is still movement. On the Democratic side, state Senator Gary D. LeBeau announced this week he was dropping out, which leaves four candidates in the primary. The Republican side got a new entry: Mark Boughton, who has served as the Mayor of Danbury since 2001. Danbury is a decent-sized city whose population hovers around 80,000, so expect Boughton to be a player in the Republican primary; Quinnipiac’s most recent poll found a wide open field with Tom Foley at 17%, Lieut. Gov. Michael Fedele at 8% and Boughton at 6%.

In California, Rep. Jackie Speier ruled out leaving her House seat this week, despite mounting rumors that she was preparing to run for California Attorney General. Her retirement would have created a fierce Democratic primary in her staunchly blue seat, but it would have been all but impossible to envision a competitive general election (Kerry and Obama both received more than 70% in CA-12). Another Democrat who confirmed his re-election plans this week is Tennessee’s Rep. Lincoln Davis. While he had already said he would run, the GOP still hoped it could push him towards the exit and have a shot at an open seat in a district that voted for McCain by 30%.

While I typically publish my weekly update on Sunday, I had left time to blog today so I am posting this post (which is prepared through the week) today and shall have time to do something else tomorrow.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the retirement and race-by-race pages. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. John Boozman (R, AR-03)
Will not retire Rep. Jackie Speier (D, CA-12)
Rep. Lincoln Davis (D, TN-04)
Added to retirement watch Rep. Bill Delahunt (D, MA-10)
Rep. Diane Watson (D, CA-33)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP Rep. John Boozman announced run
DE-Sen, Dem New Castle County Executive Chris Coons announced run
IL-Sen, Dem Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias won nomination
IL-Sen, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk won nomination
IN-Sen, GOP former Senator Dan Coats exploring run
Secretary of State Todd Rokita ruled out run
KY-Sen, Dem doctor Jack Buckmaster is running
Darlene Price is running
businessman Maurice Sweeney is running
KY-Sen, GOP former Ambassador Cathy Bailey will not run
Bill Johnson is running
Gurley Martin is running
Jon Scribner is running
ND-Sen, Dem state Senator Tracy Potter is running
NY-Sen-A, GOP CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow added
WA-Sen, GOP former gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi added

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CT-Gov, Dem state Senator Gary D. LeBeau dropped out
CT-Gov, GOP Danbury Mayor Mark D. Boughton is running
IL-Gov, Dem Governor Pat Quinn won primary
MD-Gov, GOP Lawrence J. Hogan dropped out
MN-Gov, GOPDFL former state Senator Steve Kelley dropped out

Senate GOP leads in AR, NH, NV, CO, KY, IL but Reid enjoys uptick & Ayotte struggles in primary

Published
by
Taniel
on February 5, 2010
in AR-Sen, AZ-Sen, CO-Sen, CT-Gov, IL-Sen, KY-Sen, MI-Gov, NH-Gov, NH-Sen, NV-Sen, NY-Gov and TX-Gov
. 1 Comment

The week’s most dramatic polls no doubt are those from Arkansas since they suggest that Blanche Lincoln’s fate is all but sealed. Rasmussen finds the senator’s favorability rating at a dismal 36-59; PPP shows her approval rating at an even more catastrophic 27-62. Her numbers against Republicans are a disaster. PPP has her down 56% to 33% against Rep. John Boozman and 50% to 35% against Gilbert Baker; Rasmussen shows her trailing by similar margins - 54% to 35% against Boozman, 52-33 against Baker, 50-34 against Curtis Coleman, 51-35 against Kim Hendren. Those are not numbers an incumbent recovers from.

The problem for Democrats is that they can hardly pull a Dodd or a Torricelli: PPP tested a variety of alternatives to Lincoln and found the GOP generally in control. The party’s only savior could be popular Governor Mike Beebe - and even then he is down 1% against Boozman and he leads Baker by an underwhelming 46% to 38%. Rep. Mike Ross trails Boozman 48-37 but ties Baker at 39%; Wesley Clark is down 51-36 and 45-39, respectively and Halter 53-30 and 45-34.

While none of these results are encouraging for Democrats, all four of her potential replacements perform better than the senator. Since Halter, Ross and Clark’s name recognition is lower and favorability ratings is incomparably stronger than Lincoln, they would also have more hope of improving their results while it is hard to envision the incumbent doing so. In short, the GOP is more likely than not to pick-up this seat but it does not mean Democrats should not at least try a switcheroo.

Senate: GOP also leads in NH, NV, CO, KY and IL…

New Hampshire: The first public poll of the GOP’s Senate primary finds that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has her work cut out for her: Research 2000 has her only leading Ovide Lamontagne 36% to 27%, with William Binnie at 4%. If conservatives decide they can add New Hampshire to an already long list of summer primaries they want to prioritize, Lamontagne could very well pull the upset and thus give Democrats a boost in the general election. While Rep. Paul Hodes trails Ayotte 46% to 39%, leads Lamontagne 46% to 36% - a 17% differential. The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that Ayotte remains the front-runner and her high favorability ratings and early poll lead presage good things for the NRSC.

Nevada: Harry Reid arguably just received the best poll he has seen in months - and it came from Rasmussen! While his numbers remain very rough, they are for once not insurmountable: His favorability rating stands at 44/55 and he trails all of his competitors “only” by single-digits: 45-39 against Lowden, 47-39 against Tarkanian and 44-40 against Angle. Of course, an incumbent has nothing to boast about when stuck around 40%, but last month Reid trailed by double-digits in all match-ups. We’ll have to see whether this trendline is an outlier or whether it is due to Reid’s well-financed attempts to improve his image. The poll’s most interesting part is the match-up between Reid and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been mulling the race ever since he was cleared of an indictement: Krolicki has the smallest lead among these four Republicans, 44% to 41%.

Colorado: No miracle for Michael Bennet in Rasmussen’s new poll: the unelected senator leads trails Republican front-runner Jane Norton by a massive 51% to 37%. That said, Bennet’s favorability rating remains (barely) positive and he should have an easier time to improve his numbers than other incumbents since he is less well-known and thus has more room to grow. And yet, his primary challenger Andrew Romanoff performs far better against Norton since he only trails 45% to 38% - a sign Democrats would be better off dumping the incumbent to start fresh? Both Democrats trail by more narrowly against Republicans Tom Wiens and Ken Buck.

Kentucky: Rasmussen’s monthly Kentucky poll confirms not only that the GOP has gained edge in this open seat (a red state’s electorate naturally gravitates rightward in this environment), but also that Rand Paul would be a far more formidable candidate than had been expected: He leads LG Mongiardo 48% to 37% and AG Conway 47% to 39%. Tray Grayson’s leads are more uneven, as his 49-35 rout over Mongiardo contrasts with his 44-40 lead over Conway. Democrats look like they’d be better off with Conway, whose favorability rating stands at 47-32, than with Mongiardo, whose favorability rating is a mediocre 45-43.

Illinois: Conducted by Rasmussen, The first public poll to test the Illinois Senate race since voters chose their nominees finds Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 40%, a result that contradicts PPP’s recent finding that the Democrat has an 8% lead; note that PPP’s poll was conducted just before Giannoulias was hit by new questions over his family bank, so that might account for some of the difference. In any case, Illinois is one state the DSCC simply cannot afford to lose so Kirk’s early lead is an ugly one for Democrats to see.

Connecticut: Even Rasmussen agrees there is nothing to see in this race since Chris Dodd’s retirement. Thanks to a massive 70% to 26% favorability rating, Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 54% to 35% and Linda McMahon 56% to 36%.

New York: I already reported Marist’s Senate survey earlier this week, and Quinnipiac’s poll draws the same lessons: Gillibrand starts with an edge in the Democratic primary but Harold Ford certainly has an opening (Gillibrand is up 36-18 with Tasini at 4) and the incumbent would be favored in the general election against Bruce Blakeman; however, she does not pass 50% in this survey (she leads 44% to 27%), a potential sign Blakeman could still gain traction as he introduces himself.

Arizona: John McCain and John Hayworth both released internal polls of what is shaping up to be a rough primary. As you would expect, the two camps’ numbers tell a different story. Hayworth’s survey (conducted by McLaughlin) has the incumbent leading 49% to 33% while McCain’s survey (conducted by POS) has him up 59% to 30%. Given that there is still a long time to go, that McCain is after all the GOP’s former presidential nominee and that he is better known than Hayworth, the latter set of numbers is also quite underwhelming and signals that the challenger has an opening.

Governor: White within single-digits of Perry, Michigan’s Cox leads

Texas: Since Bill White’s entry in the race, Democrats have been paying more attention to this gubernatorial race but Rasmussen is the first pollster to find a real opening for the Houston Mayor: When matched-up with Governor Rick Perry, he trails 48% to 39% - a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent since he is only up single-digits and remains under 50%. Against Kay Bailey Hutchison, White trails by a larger 49% to 36%. As such, whether the general election will be competitive depends from the outcome of the March-April primary; there is no little doubt White would rather face an incumbent with a mediocre 50-48 approval rating.

New York: David Paterson still looks to be heading towards certain defeat in Marist and Quinnipiac’s new polls. His approval rating stands at 26% in the former and 37% in the latter; that might be an improvement over his low points of 2009, but it leaves him in no position to be competitive against the ultra-popular Andrew Cuomo. Marist shows the Attorney General would crush the Governor by a stunning 70% to 23% in the primary, while Quinnipiac shows the margin to be a comparatively modest 55% to 23%. Both surveys have Paterson struggling against Rick Lazio (he trails by 3% in Marist, leads by 1% in Quinnipiac), while Cuomo crushes the former congressman by 37% and 32%.

Michigan: While some cheered Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s early January withdrawal as an opportunity to field a stronger candidate, EPIC-MRA’s latest poll finds state Democrats are hardly saved: Attorney General Mike Cox crushes the three Democrats he is matched-up against by margins ranging from 17% to 22%. Yet, Cox is not certain of surviving the primary, since he leads 32% to 25% against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who does not fare quite as well in the general election: He leads by 17% against Virg Bernero but only by 8% against Andy Dillon and by 7% against Denise Ilitch. The other good news for Democrats is that former GOP Rep. Schwarz is now saying he is 75% certain of running as an independent, which could lead Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Connecticut: Democrats don’t have as clear an edge in this Governor’s race since Susan Bysiewicz dropped out, though they still lead all match-ups in Rasmussen’s new poll: Ned Lamont is up 41-33 against Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and 40-37 against Tom Foley while while Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy tops the two Republicans by just 1%.

New Hampshire: Governor Lynch is one incumbent Democrats will apparently not have to worry about. In Research 2000’s new poll, he crushes low-profile businessman Kimball 59% to 13%.

Tracking movement in AR-01, MN-03 and the two Orlando districts

Published
by
Taniel
on February 5, 2010
in AR-01, FL-08, FL-24 and MN-03
. 5 Comments

Rep. Paulsen unlikely to struggle in MN-03

As 2008 came to a close, Democrats were expected to mount a top-tier challenge against freshman Rep. Erik Paulsen, one of 2008’s unlikeliest Republican victors since he won a district Obama carried. Paulsen’s victory was partly due to the lackluster campaign of Democratic nominee Ashwin Madia, one of the many failed House candidates who confirmed that having served in the Iraq War is not enough to be elected. Madia had secured the DFL’s endorsement at the party’s convention over state Senator Terri Bonoff, whom Democrats were hoping would run again in 2010 but who announced this week she would do no such thing.

Two Democrats are still seeking the DFL’s nomination: psychiatrist Maureen Hackett, who might not need the DCCC’s attention since he appears to be self-funding, and Minnesota PTA President Jim Meffert. Things could get interesting in Democrats right their ship nationally, but as of now Bonoff’s move leaves Republicans with one less seat of their own to worry about.

Interestingly, Bonoff voiced interest in running in 2012, after redistricting. Not only could that yield significant change because Minnesota might see its number of seat change (it looks unlikely at this point, but not impossible), but if Democrats pick-up the Governor’s Mansion this year they would be able to draw a favorable map. Given that he represents an Obama district in which more Democratic precincts can easily be added, Paulsen would surely be the party’s main target.

AR-01 sees little activity since Berry’s retirement

While Democrats recently met some recruitment success in AR-02, they are still searching for their flag-bearer in the other Arkansas open seat they must defend. In recent days, two Democrats announced they would not run - the first of which was Democrats’ strongest potential candidate, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel. The move was entirely expected (McDaniel has been eying the Governor’s Mansion, which he’ll probably run for in 2014 when Mike Beebe is term-limited), but the DCCC is probably nonetheless disappointed. Another Democrat also bowed out of the race: state Sen. Robert Thompson.

One Democrat who is preparing to run is Chad Causey, Berry’s chief of staff. I doubt this is going to get Democrats that excited. While congressional staffers sometimes pull off victories of their own, it is tough to see Democrats hold AR-01 if they cannot nominate a candidate whom voters have already grown to know and be comfortable with; otherwise, how can they resist Arkansans’ increasing comfort with shedding their loyalty to the Democratic Party?

That said, the party has such a deep bench in the state that they still have many elected officials who could run, including state Senators Steve Byrles, Paul Bookout, Tim Wooldridge, Kevin Smith as well as a number of state representatives. Furthermore, the Republican side has been just as curiously inactive: Radio owner Rick Crawford was already in the race when Berry retired and no other Republican has joined him since then, though a couple of state legislators have yet to rule out doing so. I would argue that this is one district in which the quality of the GOP nominee is less important than the quality of the Democratic nominee, however.

Gutierrez drops out in FL-8

For months, Republicans struggled to recruit a credible nominee against Rep. Alan Grayson but in recent months a number of candidates have emerged to challenge the outspoken progressive, namely state Rep. Kurt Kelly and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who appears to be the NRCC’s preferred candidate because he might be willing to self-fund a campaign. (Note that Grayson is one of the biggest self-funders in Congress, so spending could quickly skyrocket.)

O’Donoghue and Kelly’s entry allowed the GOP establishment to marginalize 28-year old developer Armando Gutierrez, whom for a time in the fall had come to look as the party’s probable nominee. Thanks to his family’s connections to Southern Florida’s political establishment, Gutierrez had received the endorsements of at least 2 House members and numerous state legislators, but his lack of familiarity with the Orlando area (he had just moved to the region from Southern Florida a few weeks before he entered the race) led to NRCC concerns that they were endangering what they view as one of their top opportunities of the cycle.

Yet, Gutierrez announced this week that he was dropping out, explaining that he was now more interested in trying to bring a baseball team to Orlando. “I feel I can do more for the Central Florida economy by bringing a baseball team to the community than I can as a Member of Congress,” he said. This development leaves Kelly, O’Donoghue pitted against attorney Todd Long and Tea Party activist Patricia Sullivan in what will be one of Florida’s many highly contested GOP primaries: Given that these fights will not be settled until late August, might this help Democrats?

The question applies not just to FL-8 but also to the Senate race, where the summer battle ought to be brutal, and to FL-24, where the Republican field might be getting even more crowded soon. With Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams headlining the GOP primary for now, the NRCC has nonetheless been looking for an alternative because of their preference for someone who can afford buying himself a congressional seat: Craig Miller, the CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, is now reportedly planning to run and use his deep pockets to finance his challenge to Kosmas. That should also make for a rough primary.

Retirement clues

Published
by
Taniel
on February 4, 2010
in FL-10, OH-12, SC-05 and VA-10
. 12 Comments

Since open seats have played a major role in determining the shape of the cycle, it would be good to take a look as to what shoes might still drop in the coming months.

On the Senate front, the only incumbent who might choose to retire for reasons unrelated to the prospect of a tough loss is 85-year old Dan Inouye, but as I discussed recently the Hawaii senator has certainly dropped no hints he might call it quits so Democrats seem safe. Meanwhile, Harry Reid and Blanche Lincoln are now both regularly fielding questions about whether they intend to stick to their re-election races given their dismal poll numbers; I find it hard to believe either would step aside, and unlike in Connecticut, Democrats have no obvious savior.

On the gubernatorial front, there are already so many open seats it’s tough to come up with any more incumbents who might choose not to run. The only one who might do so is David Paterson, though the New York Governor has looked determined not to leave the field to Andrew Cuomo. There has also been some minimal speculation that Chet Culver and Ted Strickland might retire rather than face the prospect of a loss, but it’s tough to see how Democrats could do better in Iowa given that their trouble come from Terry Branstad’s entry while Strickland’s woes are not pronounced enough for his retirement to make much sense.

That leaves us with House races, in which the number of additional open seats will be decisive in determining how serious a shot Republicans have of regaining the majority. Based on the past few cycles, we are unlikely to get that many more retirements in the coming months but there are many congressmen we should keep an eye on, namely Ike Skelton, Peter DeFazio, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden on the Democratic side, Bill Young on the Republican side.

In addition, Democrats like John Spratt and Collin Peterson have ruled out retiring but they are worth still tracking. Finally, surprise retirements are possible, though it is worth noting that most of the Democrats who recently called it quits - Berry, Snyder, Gordon - had at least been mentioned as potential retirees. [Update: I should add the 68-year old Rep. Bill Delahunt, who represents the most Republican district in Massachusetts and who is now being mentioned as a potential retiree.]

Fundraising totals often offer interesting clues as to which incumbents might not be looking to run for re-election. Now that we can parse through the 4th quarter totals, we can glean new hints. To be sure, a congressman raising little money does not mean they are planning to call it quits, nor do big fundraising hauls indicate that they will run again. But they can certainly point us in useful directions; Jodi Rell’s 3rd quarter report, for instance, foreshadowed her decision to retire.

The most eyebrow-raising number once again belongs to 79-year old Bill Young, the longest serving House Republican who represents a swing district and has not committed to seek a 21st term in 2010. Young raised just $750 in the fourth quarter; even lower than the $3,900 he raised in the third quarter. It’s not like Young is averse to soliciting funds, like John Hostettler or Vic Snyder. In 2007, he raised 5 times more than he has in 2009 - and he was not facing a competitive opponent as he is this cycle.

That said, state Senator Charlie Justice has not caught fire, which might encourage Young to think that he would not have to break much more of a sweat than he is used in his largely competition-free38 years in Congress. In early January, speculation mounted that Young was about to call it quits; the fact that he did not do so might also signal he is willing to press ahead.

Other Republicans who had been considered potential (albeit unlikely) retirees are Frank Wolf (VA-10) and Pat Tiberi (OH-12). The former reported raising more than $180,000 while Tiberi is trumpeting the $440,000 he raised in the fourth quarter. With Ohio’s filing deadline looming later in February, the time has come to strike him off our retirement watch. (Note that Tiberi is a rare House Republican to face a top-tier challenge next year.)

On the Democratic side, the number that is producing the most buzz is that of John Spratt (SC-05). While Spratt said in December he would seek another term, the $77,000 he raised in the fourth quarter don’t point to an incumbent who is seriously preparing for the hard fought race Spratt is sure to face; it is also far lower than what Spratt reported in previous cycles.

On the other hand, a number of Democratic incumbents whom the GOP has been ardently hoping will retire are proceeding like they are running. Most significant is 78-year old Ike Skelton’s $492,000, which certainly suggests he is taking his 2010 challenge very seriously. There is also no reason for Democrats to be alarmed at Baron Hill, who reported $251,000. (The filing deadline is looming.) Leonard Boswell (IA-03)’s $180,000 is a higher number than he did in the last three months of 2007 and Colin Peterson topped $100,000, which is not negligeable considering he is not facing a competitive race.

Interestingly: Rep. Marion Berry, who announced his retirement a month after the end of the fourth quarter, reported raising $73,000, which might have been a hint since that was less than he reported in 2007, a cycle in which he was entirely unopposed.

Rare good news for Senate Dems: Coons enters in DE, Tomphson inches away in WI

Published
by
Taniel
on February 4, 2010
in DE-Sen and WI-Sen
. 6 Comments

Attorney General Beau Biden’s decision not to run for Senate left Delaware Democrats in a bind, with John Carney and Ted Kaufman soon adding to the party’s fear they would let Mike Castle coast to the Senate. Democrats immediately moved to plan D, New Castle County Chris Coons, and this time they were successful: Coons jumped in the Senate race yesterday.

I do not need to tell you Rep. Mike Castle is a formidable candidate. The presumptive Republican nominee was undeniably favored to pick-up this seat before Coons entered the race, and he remains the clear front-runner with Coons running. Since 1980, Castle has won 13 double-digit statewide victories, and the likeliest scenario for his match-up with Coons is that the number rises to 14. The most recent poll, released by Rasmussen, does show Castle crushing his opponent 56% to 27%.

The more interesting question is whether Coons has the potential to make the race competitive, and the answer is assuredly yes. For one, Coons is no random candidate: Since 2004, he has represented two-thirds of the state voters since New Castle is by far the state’s largest county.

Second, this is one Senate seat national Democrats are highly unlikely to give up, not only because Delaware is small enough that contesting it does not require that much money but also because this is Joe Biden’s former seat and the vice-president has already personally invested himself in keeping it in Democratic hands.

He asked Kaufman to reconsider, he urged Coons to run and for the past week he has been working zealously to convince the press that Castle is not a shoo-in. Not only did he insist yesterday that Coons would surprise us, but he reportedly personally lobbied electoral analyst Charlie Cook to change his rating from “Safe Republican” to a more competitive column! (Compare this to national Democrats relative indifference towards recruiting Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and ensuring she is competitive.)

While Castle has never trembled in his three-decade career, when is the last time Democrats seriously sought to damage him? When is the last time he faced a barrage of attack ads? This is not to say his numbers will collapse as soon as the DSCC buys air time, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on how Castle is impacted when Democrats finally try to appeal to Delaware voters’ typical partisan allegiance.

Third, the contrast between a 69-year old and a 47-year old could play to Coons’s favor, especially if the Democrat can appeal to voters’ desire to bring new faces to the elite. Coons could also run against Castle’s longtime tenure in Washington while touting his local office to prevent some of independent voters’ exodus towards the GOP. Relatedly, the Republican has been rumored to have health problems that were making him consider leaving politics altogether. Massachusetts showed what happens when a candidate lets herself be outworked; does Castle have what it takes to campaign full-time for months? If he chose to ran, the answer is presumably that he can invest himself enough to protect his lead, but this remains a question worth asking.

In short: Delaware’s seat clearly leans Republican, but it is not as far gone as North Dakota’s. At the very least, Democrats will do what it takes to put Coons in the position of scoring an upset.

—

Democrats got more good news on the recruitment front from Wisconsin: former Governor Tommy Thompson has signed up as an adviser to Peak Ridge Capital Group venture capital fund, which certainly suggests he is not seriously considering running for Senate this year.

This of course does not make it impossible for Thompson to jump in sometime in the spring, but why would he be looking for new positions if he was entertaining the notion of an electoral comeback? In particular, why would he choose an activity that would open him to obvious Democratic attacks, since voters don’t think warmly of venture capital funds right now.

Interestingly, this same scenario (our leaning a Republican is leaning against running when he signs up for another job) has played out repeatedly this cycle, most notably for Rudy Giuliani but also for Jon Porter and Gordon Smith. All three of these Republicans later confirmed they would pass on 2010. Needless to say, it would be a huge break for Senate Democrats if Thompson chooses not to challenge Russ Feingold.

Former Senator Dan Coats comes out of the shadows

Published
by
Taniel
on February 3, 2010
in IN-Sen
. 10 Comments

Former Indiana Senator Dan Coats is preparing to challenge the man who replaced him, an unbelievable development no one saw coming that causes Evan Bayh to regain the status of vulnerable incumbent he had shed just yesterday.

Needless to say, this plunges Senate Democrats in a dire situation since Coats’s entry makes Indiana their eighth competitive Senate seat. To have a shot at regaining the senate, the GOP needs to put in play just two of the following 5 states: CA, CT, NY, WA and WI.

I admit I am guilty of twice trumpeting Bayh’s return to the safe column when he was apparently not out of the woods; first when Rep. Mike Pence announced he would not run, the second when Secretary of State Todd Rokita did the same. For my defense, who could have imagined just a month ago that just one of these Republicans would consider challenging the incumbent - let alone so many? While I did point out that Governor Mitch Daniels remained as a wild card, a shocking development came from an entirely unexpected direction.

A major caveat: There have been countless reports announcing Coasts’s imminent entry since late last night, first on Howey Politics Indiana and later on other press outlets. But the former Senator’s actual statement, which he released this afternoon, makes it sound like he is less definite than original stories had suggested:

After much thoughtful consideration, I have authorized my supporters to begin gathering signatures as I test the waters for a potential challenge to Evan Bayh in 2010. Over the next few weeks, I will be talking to Hoosiers from all walks of life, and I will make a formal announcement regarding my intentions in the near future.

It is of course unlikely Coats’s would suddenly come out of the shadows if he wasn’t fairly certain he was interested in the race, but it does nonetheless make sense that Coats might float his name to such an extent while still being genuinely undecided: The deadline to submit signatures is only 13 days away so he cannot wait longer to start gathering them. It is after all probable he just started thinking about the possibility he might run last week, and he cannot afford to fully make up his mind before getting the wagon moving.

That said, Democrats shouldn’t spend too much time hoping Coats does not run; not only will he now receive a lot of encouraging phone calls form Republican dignitaries but most press outlets are still reporting that he is all but sure to get in. (The signature threshold is too low to be much of an obstacle.)

Coats was elected to the House in 1982; in 1988, he was appointed to the Senate to replace incoming vice-president Dan Quayle. He beat Baron Hill in 1990 to serve out the reminder of Quayle’s term and secured a full term in 1992. In 1998, he decided not to seek a second full-term, citing his aversion towards fundraising. His retirement allowed Evan Bayh, who had just been forced out of the Governor’s Mansion two years earlier due to term-limits, to swoop in the Senate. As such, a race between the two men would come to replace the showdown they did not have twelve years ago.

Combine Coats’s status as a former Senator, the national environment, Indiana’s red lean and Bayh’s struggles to distance Pence and former Rep. Hostettler in a recent Rasmussen poll, and this match-up sure has the potential to be competitive. At the very least, Coats should force Bayh to face the most prominent opponent of his entire political career - arguably even the first well-known opponent of his career. (The highest-profile Republican he has faced is then-Lieutenant Governor John Mutz back in his first gubernatorial victory in 1988; in a tough year for Democrats, Bayh won by 7%.)

Yet, Coats has accumulated baggage since he left the Senate and there are a number of important reasons to give Bayh the edge.

First, we should not understate the popularity and electoral strength Bayh has displayed time and time again. He has won five statewide races, the last three of which (including both of his Senate victories) with more than 60% of the vote. How many senators can say they won their first race by 36%, especially when it was a pick-up?

Coats, on the other hand, has only ran for statewide office twice: in 1990 and in 1992 - 18 years ago. On neither occasion did he cross 60%. This also means that he has been out of office for already 12 years so the electorate has obviously changed quite a bit since he last represented them. This also points us towards Coats’s age: While 67 is barely above the Senate’s median age, it is rare for challengers to be elected so late. Red wave or not, Bayh is formidable enough that Coats will have put up a top-tier fight and display preserved electoral skills. Does he have it in him?

Second, Bayh has a huge warchest: Senators rarely have $13 million stocked-up in a bank account ready to be used on a federal race. The reason the Indiana Democrat has this much money is that he was preparing to run for president in 2008, and when he decided to pass on the contest it looked like those millions would not find much use. This money will allow Bayh, whose standing is certainly not damaged like Dodd’s or Lincoln’s, to run an avalanche of early ads protecting his own image and reminding voters of what they might have disliked about Coats.

Note that Coats should have little difficulty raising money, whatever he said about fundraising back in 1998: While he has been out of office for 12 years, he has acquired a prominent status within the GOP. During George W. Bush’s second term, he was charged with walking Harriet Miers through the Senate; in 2008, he was one of the most influential Republicans in convincing John McCain to choose Sarah Palin. That both of these events turned out to be disasters does not erase the fact that he is very well-connected and should benefit from the help of the entire GOP establishment. But enough to face Bayh’s millions, especially when he’ll have to go through a contested primary?

Third, Coats’s moves since he retired make it obvious that he did not think he might ever want to run again. He is a registered federal lobbyist, and he has worked on behalf of Bank of America and Lockheed Martin. That is a terrible line on any candidate’s resume, let alone in a cycle driven by anti-establishment sentiment and angers towards banks.

Based on Coats’s lobbying activities alone, Democrats (and perhaps Republican opponents, since Hostettler should stick to challenge him from the right) would be able to attack him as having become part of the problem - having “gone Washington”, as political ads like to claim. And here’s the twist: They could make the claim quite literally since Coast moved his residency to Virginia as soon as he left the Senate (he voted there as early as the 2000 primary) and he is still registered in the Old Dominion!

As such, Coats has managed to do better than Ford, who had at least changed his registration from Tennessee to New York two months before launching his media blitz. That Coats is launching his exploration while still a Virginia resident is eyebrow-raising, will make for obvious attacks from Bayh’s camp and will surely sell badly in Indiana. (Remember John Thune’s ads featuring Tom Dashle proclaiming he was a resident of DC?)

Democrats have understandably grown anxious in the face of a mountain of terrible news, not to mention their large majorities’ utter inability to get anything done and pass any meaningful reform But they should not press the panic button because of Coats’s apparent entry. The race should be far more competitive than anyone could have envisioned when we entered 2010, but Bayh is far from lost. (And on that note, I am doing to go watch the premiere of Lost’s final season, which I didn’t manage to catch last night.)

Illinois has voted

Published
by
Taniel
on February 3, 2010
in IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14 and IL-Sen
. 21 Comments

The cycle’s first primaries have come and gone - and so much for surprises, at least on the Democratic side. After weeks of brutal campaigning, Illinois voters chose their general election candidates. In the Senate race, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias held on to his position as the early front-runner. In the Governor’s race, it appears that incumbent Pat Quinn will be able to hold on since he leads by one percentage point with just 0.8% still to report, though the contest might still head to a recount.

Yet, it is the Republican side that makes for a study of contrasts as to whether GOP primaries might knock the wind out of the party’s wave prospects. In the Senate race, a moderate Republican who just last June was one of conservative groups’ ultimate persona non grata coasted to an easy victory while in heavily blue IL-10, a conservative businessman upset a moderate state legislator that would have been better positioned to defend the open seat.

Republicans nominate Kirk for Senate, Dold for House

On June 27th, Rep. Mark Kirk was one of just 8 House Republicans to support the cap-and-trade bill; these congressmen provided the winning margin, since the legislation passed by a narrow 219-212 margin. Conservatives immediately vowed to punish the culprits. Yet, Kirk coasted to the GOP’s Senate nomination last night. While the 58% he received is thoroughly unimpressive given the caliber of his opponents, the silence of conservative groups and figures who were all over NY-23 and are now going all-out in the Crist-Rubio contest was deafening. After all, Kirk’s main challenger (businessman Pat Hughes) was no less credible than Doug Hoffman and he did reach out to politicians like Senator Jim DeMint.

There are obviously very good reasons for conservatives to give Kirk a pass: His candidacy is the main reason this Senate race is considered competitive. Kirk was able to survive in tough cycles in his blue-leaning district, so his ability to appeal to centrist voters and even some Democrats has been proven. Illinois is no Florida and Hughes is no Rubio, so working to defeat the congressman was a much graver blow to Republican electability.

Such considerations hardly stopped conservatives in NY-23, where many activists were quoted as saying they did not mind Bill Owens’s victory as long as Dede Scozzafava was defeated. Yet, Kirk is the second Republican in a row to benefit from a party-over-ideology reflex (conservatives rallied around Scott Brown despite the likelihood that he will position himself as a moderate senator), which could help reassure the GOP that the rise of Tea Partiers will not lead their candidates to be systematically Scozzafavad.

And yet, Republican voters also complicated their party’s hope of defending IL-10, the blue-leaning district Kirk is vacating to run for Senate.

IL-10 voted for Kerry by 6% and for Obama by 23%. To prevail, the Republican nominee looks he would need to duplicate Kirk’s ability to appeal to voters who typically vote Democratic and the GOP thought it had found such a contender in state Rep. Beth Coulson, who has a moderate reputation. Yet, businessman Bob Dold went after Coulson from the right and last night won by a surprisingly decisive margin.

Given the district’s leanings, this leaves Republicans at a disadvantage. Whether or not a red wave submerges Democrats elsewhere, Dold does not look like a good fit for this suburban Chicago district. Yet, the NRCC might ultimately be saved by the result of the Democratic primary, in which voters also chose their weaker general election candidate - albeit this is far more debatable and minor a point than the one regarding Dold’s victory over Coulson.

Indeed, IL-10’s Democratic nominee will be the party’s failed candidate against Kirk in the 2006 and 2008 cycles: Dan Seals beat out state Rep. Hamos by a narrow 49% t0 48% margin. While countless of Republicans in far more marginal districts fell, Kirk pulled it off on both occasions while Seals massively underperformed relatively to Barack Obama last year, leading to obvious questions as to whether nominating him for a third consecutive time might not cause the party trouble; whatever Seals’s qualifications, the bottom-line is that voters twice rejected him and that these defeats left him with far high negatives than Dold starts with.

A Coulson-Seals match-up might have been a carbon copy of the Kirk-Seals races, with the disappearance of the GOP’s incumbency advantage compensated with the shift in the national environment. But against Dold, Seals starts as the slight favorite. Needless to say, Democrats need this seat as a cushion against the GOP’s probably big gains elsewhere.

Democrats choose Giannoulias

Chicago Inspector General Dave Hoffman started his relentless attacks Giannoulias back in the fall and he was helped last week by reports that federal regulations were clamping down on Broadway Bank, the bank owned by Giannoulias’s family at which he himself worked as a manager. Yet, it did not prove enough to bloody the state’s Treasurer: He prevailed 39% to 34%, a narrower margin than was expected last fall but enough to move him to the general election.

Cheryle Jackson received a decent 20%, but her defeat eliminates one of the only candidates who could have ensured that the Senate contains at least one African-American come 2011. The maintenance of just that minimal level of diversity in the Senate now rests on the shoulders of Rep. Kendrick Meek.

In recent weeks, the conventional wisdom has been that Giannoulias could be Democrats’ weaker general election contender given the ethical questions that surround him. I wasn’t convinced Democrats had much to lose by nominating him until these questions took on a new dimension last week, though I still think that the state Treasurer is (very) arguably better positioned than Hoffman to ensure the Democratic base and minority voters turn out.

In any case, I suspect that the general election result is far more likely to depend on the national environment than on the identity of the Democratic nominee: Since we already knew there will be no incumbent, Republicans will not be able to turn the spotlight solely on an unpopular opponent and will have to hope that independents and moderate Democrats are willing to turn their back to Barack Obama. Can the president carry Giannoulias across the finish line in his home-state?

GOP also chooses its challengers in IL-8, IL-11 and IL-14

All eyes were also on IL-14, where Ethan Hastert was looking to take on Rep. Bill Foster. Yet, the former Speaker’s son fell 4% short against state Senator Randall Hultgren. My debatable sense is that this is the better result for the GOP since Hastert’s family ties opened him to obvious Democratic attacks while Hultgren already has a base and electoral experience. Yet, it remains to be seen how much the NRCC prioritizes IL-14 (the district did vote for Obama) so Hastert’s ties to national Republicans could have been helpful to the GOP. Overall, IL-14 is probably Democrats’ most (only?) endangered Illinois seat.

In IL-11, freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson might have found herself in a tougher race if the state’s filing deadline was not so early but Republicans were left with an underwhelming list of candidates. Yet, the winner of yesterday’s 5-way primary is the one candidate who seemed to at least attract the NRCC’s attention: Air Force veteran Adam Kinzinger. His fundraising strength also suggests that Republicans are paying attention to the district; Halvorson enters the general election favored, but we’ll keep an eye on this race.

IL-08 is another district in which Republicans failed to recruit a candidate capable to take advantage of a red wave and the GOP nomination yielded a candidate who is even more of a question mark than was expected; in a recent overview of the race by The Daily Herald, Joe Walsh chose to highlight primarily his desire to reform “ill-conceived” Medicare and Social Security, which is hardly a winning issue. For him to defeat Rep. Melissa Bean would require a red wave so huge that it remains at this point hard to envision.

Since both gubernatorial primaries are too close to call, it would be futile to analyze the results before knowing for sure who the nominees will be. While Governor Pat Quinn seems likely to hold on to his lead over Treasurer Dan Hynes on the Democratic side, state Senator Bill Brady’s 500-vote lead (with 99% precincts reporting) in the GOP primary is very fragile since the remaining votes were cast in Cook County, where Brady is very weak.

To have shot at Senate, NRSC needs recruitment coups in two out of NY, WI and WA

Published
by
Taniel
on February 2, 2010
in IN-Sen, NY-Sen and WA-Sen
. 35 Comments

Evan Bayh has dodged his second bullet in two weeks as Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita announced he would run for the House seat from which Rep. Steve Buyer retired on Friday rather than challenge the longtime senator.

Is this a case of fortuitous timing for Democrats? Rokita had nothing to lose by seeking federal office since his term is not up until 2012; his decision to run for the House suggests he really was interested in a congressional position, so might Bayh have landed a top-tier challenger by now had Buyer not retired? While Republicans are left wondering what might have been, we are back to the situation we were in on Thursday: Unless Governor Mitch Daniels bucks expectations, the GOP will have to do with state Senator Marlin Stutzman and former Rep. John Hostettler, neither of whom are well-positioned to take full advantage of the environment.

(Rokita’s move also guarantees a competitive GOP primary in IN-4, since Buyer’s protege state Senator Brandt Hershman has also jumped in. Whoever prevails in this their primary is likely to win the general election; the only Democrat who is being mentioned as a potential candidate is Purdue University biology professor David Sanders.)

While Bayh can no longer be considered a shoo-in for his re-election race, Indiana is back on the safer side of the equation - which is more than we can of other Democratic seats. A reminder of what the landscape looks like: With ND, DE, AR, NV, CO, PA and IL already top-tier targets, Republicans need to put three more Senate seats in play to have a shot at controlling the Senate if they pull off a sweep. With an Inouye retirement looking unlikely in HI, the NRSC failing in its IN recruitment effort and Blumenthal as of now marching towards a CT coronation (which is leading to talk that Rob Simmons might drop out), the remaining targets are CA, NY, WI and WA.

With Tom Campbell and to a lesser extent Carly Fiorina, the NRSC already has the candidates they need in California. That means they probably need to pull off recruitment coups in two out of the three latter states.

WA: GOP poll suggests Patty Murray could be vulnerable

We should never do much with partisan polls taken with obvious political intents but GOP firm Moore Research found Dino Rossi, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee in both 2004 and 2008, with a 45% to 43% lead over Senator Patty Murray. Rossi is arguably as good as it gets for Washington Republicans; after coming as close as you can get to becoming governor in 2004 (he led before a recount reversed his edge), he was one of the few Republicans mounting a competitive statewide challenge in 2008 anywhere in the county. As such, Murray could do worse than trail Rossi by 2% in a Republican poll.

On the other hand, Murray was considered safe until Massachusetts altered the GOP’s ambitions so these numbers cannot but give a lot of additional heartburn to Democrats - especially as they moved Rossi to open a slight door to a run. While he said he has “no plans to run for any office at this point,” he added “I never say never.” The GOP is presumably working to convince Rep. Dave Reichert, who must not be relishing the prospect of being one of the only House Republicans facing a credible challenge.

GOP prospects against Gillibrand depend on Pataki (and Ford)

Believe it or not, even Chuck Schumer’s re-election race is now generating news! While the Democratic Senator has long looked untouchable, a new Marist poll finds an undeniable downward trend in his approval rating: for the first time since April 2001, it has dipped under 50%. This development comes as CNBC anchor Larry Kudlow, last seen mulling a Senate run against Chris Dodd last year, is now setting his sights on Schumer. That prospect is silly and Marist confirms the dip in Schumer’s rating doesn’t mean he has much to worry about: He crushes Kudlow 67% to 25%. Yet, the mere fact that I am moved to discuss Schumer on this blog is a stunning development.

New York’s other Senate seat remains the race to watch, and Marist finds that GOP prospects probably depend on George Pataki’s decision. While Kirsten Gillibrand trails the former governor 49% to 43%, her numbers against sole Republican candidate Bruce Blakeman bear no trace of vulnerability: she crushes him 52% to 30% - a margin that is all the more decisive considering the number of Democratic senators who are proving unable to muster leads against low-profile challengers, let alone cross the 50% threshold.

The GOP’s other hope of contesting this seat, of course, is for Harold Ford to bruise Gillibrand, outright win the primary or run as an independent. Marist found Ford routed by Pataki (52% to 35%) and struggling to muster a lead over Blakeman (39% to 35%); a match-up with Ford running as an independent was not tested. Marist did poll the primary, finding Gillibrand up 44-27 with Tasini at 4%. Ford is competitive thanks to weak support for Gillibrand in NYC, but is this not the region in which he should find the coldest reception for his conservative views? Another problematic number for Ford is that his unfavorability rating is nearly identical to Gillibrand’s despite his lower name recognition.

Except for Indiana, filing deadlines are a long time away

Unfortunately for Democrats, New York’s filing deadline is in July so Pataki has time to see whether Ford will gain any traction before making up his mind. The same is true in other states since Washington and Wisconsin Republicans have until June to make up their mind. Only in Indiana is the NRSC running out of time.

Of course, it is difficult to mount a competitive statewide campaign in just a few months, but we are talking here about well-known politicians like Pataki and Tommy Thompson who do not have to introduce themselves to voters, already have a fundraising structure and would probably easily secure their party’s nod; the same is true to a lesser degree of Rossi and perhaps even of Reichert, who is already raising money at a fast paste to prepare for his re-election race.

Poll watch: Crist in free fall, Burr under 50, Alaska Republicans looking safe

Published
by
Taniel
on February 1, 2010
in AK-AL, AK-Sen, FL-Gov, FL-Sen, NC-Sen and WI-Gov
. 12 Comments

Charlie Crist is in free fall. Just one week after Quinnipiac released the very first poll with Marco Rubio leading the Florida Governor in the GOP’s Senate primary, Rasmussen finds Crist even further down: Rubio leads 49% to 37%, a dramatic turnaround from the December tie and from Crist’s 22% August lead. Crist has sure not said his last word, but given that Rubio is just starting closing the name recognition gap the governor certainly has his work cut out for him.

It is important to keep in mind that Crist’s collapse has at least as much to do with the woes that are befell incumbent governors as with conservatives’ hostility: His approval rating among the electorate at large has fallen to 51% to 47%. That might be a respectable level, but it is nowhere near’s Crist 74-26 in December 2008, his 60-36 in June 2009 and his 52-45 in December - an undeniable downward trend that creates quite a conondrum for the governor: The hard right has long already turned against him, and Rubio has an excellent shot of winning the support of moderate Republicans who disapprove of Crist for reasons that little to do with conservatism.

Both Republicans crush Kendrick Meek in the general election: Rubio leads 49% to 32% and Crist leads 49% to 33%. As I have written before, Florida is undeniably not in the top-tier of Democratic opportunities, but it is worth waiting to see what the numbers will look like at the end of August, when Meek will have spent the summer introducing himself to voters while his two rivals will have poured in their millions into attacking each other.

Rasmussen’s gubernatorial poll of Florida’s Governor race confirms what Quinnipiac found last week: Republican Bill McCollum has opened a lead against Democrat Alex Sink: He is up 46% to 35%, whereas he had a 5% edge in December. While Sink’s name recognition is lower, her net favorability rating is surprisingly mediocre (39-34) while McCollum’s is solid (53-30). Sink will also have to struggle with Barack Obama’s dismal approval rating (42-58), which is all the more interesting considering Rasmussen’s North Carolina poll, which I discuss below, finds his rating at a stronger 48-52.

Alaska: Murkowski is safe, Young is strong

While PPP’s Alaska survey contains no surprise, it is newsworthy considering how rarely the state is polled. PPP found that both of the GOP’s federal incumbents - Senator Lisa Murkowski, Rep. Don Young - enter 2010 in a strong position to secure an additional term.

Murkowski faced a very tough race in 2004, when she was plagued by nepotism charges since her father appointer her to the Senate. Yet, she has a decent approval rating in 2010: 52% to 36%. PPP did not test a named opponent, since none has emerged, by the senator does lead a generic Democrat by a solid 52% to 25% - a margin that bears no trace of vulnerability.

Young’s standing is not as solid but the representative enters 2010 in a far stronger position than he looked to be in 2008, when he barely survived the Republican primary and the general election. His approval rating is still mediocre (43% approve, 41% disapprove) but he has a large 49% to 34% lead against state Rep. Harry Crawford. While his failure to break 50% threshold does suggest he is not fully safe, he spent much of 2008 trailing Ethan Berkowitz by decisive margins before emerging as the victor in November so Democrats would understimate him at their peril. Furthermore, Young has long faced ethical questions but rumors that he might be indicted have been circulating long enough that it does not look like he has to worry about meeting Ted Stevens’s fate.

NC: Even Rasmussen has Burr under 50% while Civitas shows open primary

Senator Richard Burr is holding on to his dubious distinction of the cycle’s most (only?) endangered Republican Senator: A new Rasmussen poll has him under the 50% threshold against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, though he leads 47% to 37%. Against former state Senator Cal Cunningham, Burr is ahead by a larger 50% to 34%.

That said, it obviously says a lot about the shape of the cycle that the most vulnerable Republican is ahead by double-digits. Furthermore, Rasmussen has his approval rating far stronger than other pollsters: 56-32. This goes against the main finding of surveys like PPP and Civitas, which had shown that Burr was surprisingly little-known; for instance, PPP’s latest poll had Burr’s approval rating at 36/33. Don’t be surprised if the DSCC pays more attention to the state than Burr’s numbers might warrant: Democrats would be well-served to force the GOP to serve some of its resources in North Carolina, since that is money that cannot be used in states like California or Wisconsin.

For now, Democrats’ main hope is that their candidates gain notoriety in the run-up to the May primary, just as had happened to Kay Hagan in 2008. A Civitas poll released last week confirms that none are imposing figures: Marshall only gets 14%, Lewis gets 7% and Cunningham gets 4%, with 75% of respondents undecided. This means the next few months might be decisive as these Democrats will have a chance to monopolize the press coverage and the state’s airwaves without facing a barrage of GOP ads seeking to define them. (I would be surprised if the Marshall-Cunningham-Lewis showdown grows very negative, let alone as ugly as it would need to get for the nominee to emerge wounded out of the primary.)

WI: Disappointing poll for Tom Barrett

Democrats have been upbeat about their chances to defend Wisconsin’s governorship ever since Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett entered the race, but Rasmussen finds him trailing his two Republican opponents: 42% to 38% against former Rep. Mark Neumann and a decisive 48% to 38% against Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker. The favorability ratings confirm not only that Barrett might not be as popular as he has been touted to be, but also that Walker could be a formidable force: his rating is 56-27, compared to 46-35 for Neumann and 44-41 for Barrett.

These numbers might matter beyond the Governor’s race. I doubt there have been any public polls testing the Republican primary, but based on Rasmussen’s favorability ratings it certainly is not a stretch to describe Neumann as the underdog against Walker. That’s exactly what Republicans have been saying in making the case that Neumann should switch over to the Senate race if Tommy Thompson decides not to challenge Russ Feingold.

That said, a party often “wastes” candidates on one race while neglecting another so it would certainly not be surprising for Neumann to stick in the Governor’s race. (One precedent that comes to mind is North Carolina in 2008: The DSCC was pleading with Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore to have one of them challenge Elizabeth Dole rather than go after each other in the gubernatorial primary. At the end of the day, none of it mattered because of Kay Hagan but Democrats could not have known just how weak of an incumbent Dole would turn out to be.)