Obsessive political analysis
You’ve done a great job with your list. I totally agree with your Cao assessment. Although the district is solidly blue, Cao has some strengths and could still be re-elected. The Delaware seat is a big question: Carney will be a solid candidate, but Castle seems to be fairly strong with his moderate voting record. However, Castle’s situation is very complex, and I agree with your assessment regarding this race. The only one in the Tossups that I might put in “Lean Retention” is Don Young. I’m on the fence regarding his future. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t decide to retire. If he retires, the GOP will keep this seat.
I was surprised at first that you had listed 7 Florida districts in play, but after reading your comments, I do agree that they should be listed on your thread.
I wonder if something to be considered regarding the Florida seats is the moderate Cuba stances Obama has been willing to take regarding travel and such to Cuba. Is 2010 to early to expect some change toward Dems in So. Florida? Since Fidel would be unable to claim credit for these new moderate policies, are Dems ables to soften relation w/ Cuba without apearing Soft toward Fidel?
I can’t wait until Puerto Rico becomes a state and they can finally get some represenatation. They could pick 2 senators and have represenation in Congress. It seems like staying a territory is ridiculous. If they don’t become a independent country, statehood would be better than what they have now. They can vote in primaries, but not in the general election. This debate over statehood has lasted for years. Hey, they have a Republican Governor, just like my home state of VT. I wonder what a Republican governor in Puerto Rico is like. I am sure that he didn’t accept Fred Thompson’s endorsement like Candidate Simmons running against Chris Dodd in CT. The witch hunt on Dodd is sort or predictable, with his connection to AIG and the bailout fallout. How many other politicians have connections to large financial companies? It is America, what is wrong with politicians investing? Because Dodd is a Democrat he is taking the heat. If he were a Republican it would be alright. I can’t believe that people will be as fickle as to not re-elect him. Perhaps the moderate Republicans have a good shot at winning in 2010 but it will be a tough sell to distance themselves from being embarrassed by people like Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. 2010 will be an intersting year. Hopefully Puerto Rico can become the 51st state. Something about 50 as a cool number has been the trend.
The GOP in SC-5 received a major success today when it was leaked that State Sen. Mick Mulvaney will be challenging John Spratt http://www.heraldonline.com/120/story/1651295.html
I personally don’t like when people get elected for one position and then run for another one right away, but Mulvaney is a very strong candidate in this district that is heavy GOP on the presidential level. Unknown Ellis George is also a candidate and former marine/accountant Jamin McCollum is a possible candidate.
Certainly, under a close analysis, IA-3 may now be leaning republican, against a weak Boswell incumbancy
I found your site hilarious. Keep the wishful thinking coming.
BTW, when are you going to write an article on all the elected Democrats in Texas who are switching parties to the GOP?
Parker is going to get primaried! Check out http://www.lesphillip.com to learn more about the next Rep from AL 05.
Where are the race-by-race comments that I so enjoyed reading last time?
I am surprised you think Mike McIntyre in the NC 7th is safe, he has been tied to the culture of corruption with tainted money from the NC Democratic Party Machine.
He has refused to answer a direct question in the Wilmington Paper about Thirteen Thousand plus dollars from indicted or corrupt politicians who have served time for accepting bribes.
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