The 2010 cycle is heating up, top-tier congressional candidates are jumping in the race and the national parties are thinking about the seats they should target in the midterm elections. In short, the time has come for new House ratings!
I have put together a look at 62 GOP-held seats and 68 Dem-held seats that we could be hearing about next year. The graphics below recap the ratings of each of these 130 races. Click on one of the graphics to be taken to a race-by-race analysis of all the vulnerable seats that party needs to defend.
You’ve done a great job with your list. I totally agree with your Cao assessment. Although the district is solidly blue, Cao has some strengths and could still be re-elected. The Delaware seat is a big question: Carney will be a solid candidate, but Castle seems to be fairly strong with his moderate voting record. However, Castle’s situation is very complex, and I agree with your assessment regarding this race. The only one in the Tossups that I might put in “Lean Retention” is Don Young. I’m on the fence regarding his future. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t decide to retire. If he retires, the GOP will keep this seat.
I was surprised at first that you had listed 7 Florida districts in play, but after reading your comments, I do agree that they should be listed on your thread.
I wonder if something to be considered regarding the Florida seats is the moderate Cuba stances Obama has been willing to take regarding travel and such to Cuba. Is 2010 to early to expect some change toward Dems in So. Florida? Since Fidel would be unable to claim credit for these new moderate policies, are Dems ables to soften relation w/ Cuba without apearing Soft toward Fidel?