Archive for the 'OH-Gov' Category

Poll watch: Rubio edges ahead for the first time, Castle and McCollum grab decisive leads

Published
by
Taniel
on January 27, 2010
in AZ-Gov, DE-Sen, FL-Gov, FL-Sen, IL-Gov, NV-Sen, OH-Gov, PA-15 and UT-Gov
. 12 Comments

For the first time, Marco Rubio leads Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican primary - and it’s not even a Rasmussen poll! He has a 47% to 44% over the Governor in Quinnipiac’s latest poll of the race.

The surprise isn’t necessarily that Rubio has edged ahead (while Crist looked truly formidable when he jumped in the Senate race in May, the primary always looked like it could get very tricky) but that he has done so effortlessly. In June, Crist had a 54% to 23% lead, which he maintained in August; by October, his margin was cut by half (50-35) and Rubio gained another 20% since the fall. There are still 9 months to go before the election, Rubio has yet to air any ad or deploy the heavy artillery but Crist has already collapsed! What will it be once the former Speaker has spent his money introducing himself to all voters? After all, 42% of Republican respondents say they do not know him well, versus only 6% who say the same of Crist.

This is not simply due to conservatives turning against Crist, far from it. Like so many of his colleagues, the Governor has seen his approval rating melt during the economic crisis. Back in June, it stood at 62-28; now, at 50-38. What this means is that Democrats might be better off facing Charlie Crist in the general election - something I frankly never thought I would say.

For now, both Republicans have a commanding lead over Rep. Kendrick Meek: Crist is up 48% to 36%, Rubio is up 44% to 35%. But this does not mean Democrats should give up on this race. For one, 72% of respondents say they know little about Meek, which makes his name recognition far weaker than either of his opponents’. As importantly, what might these numbers look like after Crist and Rubio have spent their millions (both are very prolific fundraisers) blasting each other throughout the summer? (The primary won’t be held before August 24th.) Their favorability rating should be far lower, while Meek is also a well-financed candidate who might have been able to use that time to air unchallenged positive ads.

Meanwhile, in other Senate polls…

Delaware: No Beau Biden, no Ted Kaufmann, no Matt Denn, no John Carney - the highest-profile candidate Democrats can hope for at this point is Newcastle County Executive Chris Coons. Always eager to crush Democrats’ spirits, Rasmussen wasted no time before coming out with a poll pitting Coons to Rep. Mike Castle and the results are rather brutal for the defending party: Castle leads by a massive 56% to 27%! Research 2000’s October survey had Castle up 51% to 39% over Coons, which is 17% more optimistic for Democrats, so we’ll say what other surveys have to say, but there’s no question that Republicans have now become very likely to pick-up this seat. Most stunning is the 31% of Democrats who say they are voting for Castle; sure, that means Coons has some room to grow, but if these respondents are willing to support the Republican outright rather than say they are undecided, it says much more about the congressman’s popularity than Coons’s lack of name recognition.

Nevada: No surprises in Research 2000’s latest Nevada poll: Harry Reid is still in a terrible position. Weighed down by a 34-55 favorability rating, he trails his opponents by brutal margins: 52-41 against Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 against Sue Lowden. Research 2000 tested potential replacements and found that Nevada Democrats cannot hope to pull a Dodd: Rep. Berkley trails 46-40 and 45-40 and Secretary of State Rose Miller is down 44-36 and 43-37. That such well-known Democrats are polling this weakly against such low-profile Republicans suggests NV is very determined to vote Republican in November. One candidate who manages small leads is Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, but he just announced he wouldn’t seek statewide office - not that Democrats had much reason to rest their hopes on him, since he is over 70!

New York: The third poll to test Harold Ford Jr.’s primary prospects is also the one to found him closest: Research 2000 shows Kirsten Gillibrand leading 41% to 27%, with 3% for Jonathan Tasini. Ford is surprisingly well-known among New York Democrats (his favorability rating is 40-13), while Gillibrand has more than avoided David Paterson’s fate (her rating is 46-26). Whatever Ford’s baggage, there is no denying that he still has plenty of room to grow and this will be a real race if he jumps in but that has more to do with Gillibrand’s vulnerability than anything else - remember that she’s been in trouble in primary polls no matter who she’s been matched-up against, and she did trail repeatedly against Carolyn Maloney over the summer.

Meanwhile, in other gubernatorial polls…

Florida: If Alex Sink and Bill McCollum were within the margin of error throughout 2009, how long could that have lasted in the current environment? While the conventional wisdom has been that McCollum comes with electability issues, the bottom line is that we are talking about an open seat race between two credible candidates in a swing states, a situation which in 2010 is bound to favor the GOP. Indeed, the new Quinnipiac poll finds McCollum grabbing a decisive 51% to 41% lead, up from the 4% edge he held in October; at this point, it goes beyond name recognition, though Sink should at least be able to somewhat get closer once she reduces the notoriety gap. One good news for Sink in the poll: 22% of Democrats say they are undecided, but only 11% of Republicans.

Illinois: Attacked from all corners and seeing his primary fortunes sink, Governor Pat Quinn is also in a bad position in the general election according to a new PPP poll. He trails former AG Jim Ryan 42% to 35% and trails former state party chair Andy McKenna 42% to 36%; Dan Hynes, however, leads both Republicans (40-35 against Ryan, 38-36 against McKenna). This is quite a decisive

Arizona: This has been one of Democrats’ top opportunities of the cycle because of Governor Jan Brewer’s unpopularity, but a new Rasmussen poll shows that the GOP is in a position to nominate someone who can perform much better: Treasurer Dean Martin has a 31% to 29% edge over Brewer, with John Munger at 7% and Vernon Parker at 5% (Parker has dropped out). The swap would be helpful to Republicans: Not only does Brewer have a dismal approval rating (37-60) but she trails Democratic front-runner Goddard 43% to 41% whereas Martin leads 44% to 35%. That’s a turnaround from Rasmussen’s last 2009 poll, in which Goddard had a lead against Martin. The shifting landscape is affecting Democratic candidates everywhere.

Ohio: The University of Cincinnati found yet more confirmation that the once mighty Ted Strickland is facing a very tough re-election race: he trails former Rep. John Kasich 51% to 45%. Interestingly, his rating is positive - 50% to 45% - so voters looking for a change are not necessarily doing so because they disapprove of the governor’s performance. This is further supported by the survey asking who respondents blame for the economic crisis. 24% say Bush, 23% say Wall Street and 19% say Congress; only 13% say Obama and 3% say Strickland. Yet, it’s Democrats who are preparing to lose a lot of seats.

Utah: Last week, a Deseret News poll found Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon was holding Governor Herbert under 50%, but Mason Dixon shows Herbert in a stronger position, crushing Corroon 55% to 30%. While Coroon is popular (his approval rating is 47-17), Herbert is showing no sign of vulnerability, with 62% of respondents approving of his job.

New York: No miracle for David Paterson in Research 2000. His favorability rating stands at 34-54 (and yes, that’s just among Democrats) while Andrew Cuomo’s is a formidable 71-15. The trial heat results would be stunning if we hadn’t already seen it dozens of times: Cuomo crushes Paterson 63% to 19%. I’m still at a loss as to how the governor hopes to win the Democratic nod.

Republican Internal polls

NH-Sen: Conservatives have failed to derail Mark Kirk’s candidacy, but we have gotten no look at the primary situation in New Hampshire, where Kelly Ayotte’s situation has seemed a bit more precarious than Kirk’s. (Of course, Democrats would love nothing more than to see the A.G. crash out.) Ayotte sought to remedy the situation by releasing an internal poll that has her dominating the GOP field: Ayotte has 43%, Ovide Lamontagne 11%, Bill Binnie 5% and Jim Bender 3%. Last spring, Lamontagne’s allies claimed he remained well-known among state Republicans so a 32% margin is disappointing but there is a very long way to go until the September primary; given the name recognition gap, Lamontagne has room to grow - not to mention that this is an internal poll.

PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent is one of the few Republican incumbents who are considered vulnerable at this point, which must not be an enjoyable position. The congressman’s camp sought to counter that perception by releasing an internal poll showing him with a dominant lead over Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan. Conducted by The Tarrance Group, the survey has him leading by a massive 56% to 27%. Take the results with a big grain of salt (it’s an internal, and the polling memo doesn’t even include exact wording questions) but the numbers are obviously tough for Democrats; it would be nice to see a public survey from this district.

An epic polling roundup to get our minds off Massachussetts

Published
by
Taniel
on January 18, 2010
in CO-Sen, CT-Gov, CT-Sen, MA-Gov, NC-08, ND-AL, ND-Sen, NH-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-Sen, OH-01, OH-Gov, OH-Sen, OK-Gov and UT-Gov
. 2 Comments

Research 2000 and ARG just released two of Massachussetts’s final polls - if not the final polls. ARG found a 7% lead for Brown (52% to 45%), up 4% from where he was just last week. Research 2000, meanwhile, found… a tie: Scott Brown and Martha Coakley receive 48% apiece, a testament to how unpredictable the contest remains heading into Election Day. While at this point any poll that doesn’t have Brown ahead is a relief for Democrats, I don’t have to tell you that even that survey is rough for Coakley: Just last week, Research 2000 found her ahead by 8%, which makes this yet another poll to found stunning momentum for the Republican.

Yet, Research 2000 also confirms the hypothesis I enunciated this morning, as an update to last night’s post: Coakley performs better in polls that include Libertarian nominee Joe Kennedy, who will be on the ballot tomorrow. Pajamas Media and PPP, which gave Brown large leads yesterday, did not include Kennedy at all; surveys that have the race within the margin of error do include Kennedy, who for instance receives 3% in Research 2000. There’s every reason to believe that Kennedy is drawing his voters from the conservative camp, so if the race is close his presence on the ballot could allow Coakley to shave off a few points off Brown compared to PPP’s survey. (ARG’s website appears to be down, so I cannot determine whether they included him.)

It’s hard to think of anything but Massachussetts, but let’s try to do just that: Over the past week, there was so much news to cover that I ignored an avalanche of polls, to which I’ll now get to. Now that we’ve entered 2010, there will be more and more surveys released weekly - even daily - so I will obviously not attempt to cover each one in as much detail as I did over the past year; I will however start with polls that are testing election we’ve seen little data on. Today, those consist in 3 House districts and 2 Western Governor’s races.

(Yes, this is a fairly long post… but I let polls accumulate without covering them for more than a week, so I wanted to get to them all at once to make sure I can focus on Massachussetts and other important news after this!)

Three House races find mixed results for Dems

NC-08: PPP managed to find a freshman Democrat from a swing district with solid standing! In NC-08, a district that swung from Bush to Obama, not only does Rep. Larry Kissell have a strong approval rating (45% to 30%), but he displays no sign of vulnerability in three match-ups against his challengers, leading Lou Huddleston 55% to 37%, Tom D’Annunzio 54% to 38%, Hal Jordan 55% to 39% and Harold Johnson 53% to 39%. Sure, none of these Republicans have much name recognition, but consider all the polls we have seen recently in which incumbent Democrats have struggled to mount any sort of lead against unknown opponents. Yet, not only is Kissell up big but he’s also topping 50%.

ND-AL: The DCCC is relieved Rep. Earl Pomeroy decided to seek re-election, but it doesn’t mean he is a shoo-in to win another term. A new poll by Research 2000 finds him solidly ahead of all of his competitors Kevin Cramer and Duane Sand, but he fails to clear 50% against either. (He’s ahead 46-24 and 47-22, respectively.) This is all the more problematic when you consider that Republicans are 5 times more likely to be undecided than Democrats, so the GOP candidates have a lot of room to grow once they introduce themselves, and the NRCC especially has hope in Cramer (North Dakota Public Service Commissioner). In short: Pomeroy has a good standing and he is clearly favored to win re-election, but he is not safe.

OH-01: If Kissell and Pomeroy look strong, Rep. Steve Driehaus is sinking according to a SUSA poll commissioned by FiredogLake. We already knew that this freshman Democrat was one of the most endangered of the cycle (he is facing a rematch against the Republican he ousted in 2008, and OH-01 is a district with a substantial African-American population, so a drop in black turnout compared to the past cycle would be particularly hurtful to his chances), but SUSA’s numbers are uglier than even optimistic Republicans surely expected: Driehaus trails 39% to 56% for former Rep. Steve Chabot. I don’t need to tell you the odds that an incumbent who trails by 17% might win re-election. (Coincidentally, this is the same exact margin SUSA found against Rep. Vic Snyder on Friday.)

An unexpected Dem opportunity in UT, door is closing in OK

Utah: Democrats were excited at Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Coroon’s decision to challenge Governor Herbert, and a Deseret News poll confirms that Coroon could make the race well-worth watching: Herbert leads 48% to 35%, down from his 56-32 lead back in November. There’s no question that Herbert is heavily favored, but Coroon does represent one third of the state’s population in a capacity that ensures he is a visible presence. At the very least, Coroon’s presence on the ballot could help Democrats ensure that Rep. Jim Matheson isn’t a victim of any potential red wave.

Oklahoma: Whatever Oklahoma’s staunchly conservative status, Democrats had enough of a bench they were expecting to mount a highly competitive bid to defend the state’s governorship. (Governor Henry is term-limited.) Yet, a Tulsa News poll finds that Lieut. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are no match for Rep. Mary Fallin; despite their strong favorability rating (Edmonson’s stands at 51-31), they trail the Republican 52% to 36% and 51% to 39%, respectively. A former Lieutenant Governor, Fallin is well-known and popular (54% to 29%). Democrats shouldn’t entirely give up, but the race most certainly leans Republican.

Connecticut and North Dakota won’t be competitive

From the moment Senators Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd retired two weeks ago, we have known that the races to replace them are unlikely to be competitive. Three new poll confirm that John Hoeven and Richard Blumenthal are very heavily favored to be sworn into the Senate come January 2011.

North Dakota: Richard 2000 finds Hoeven leading 56% to 32% against Ed Schulz, 55% to 34% against former AG Heidi Heitkamp and 56% to 32% against Jasper Schneider. Sure, Hoeven’s lead doesn’t quite reach “overwhelming” status, but looking at the internals it’s hard to see a path to victory for whoever Democrats nominate: There are few undecideds, including among Democratic voters; Hoeven enjoys near unanimous support among Republicans; and he has daunting leads among independents.

Connecticut: We’ve already seen a few surveys displaying Blumenthal’s dominance, but over the past 5 days Quinnipiac and Research 2000 both released surveys confirming it. In Research 2000, Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 54% to 35%, Linda McMahon 56% to 34% and Peter Schiff 56% to 33%. In Quinnipiac, whose brutal numbers for Dodd were as responsible for driving the narrative of his doom than those of any other pollster, his leads are gigantic: 62% to 27% against Simmons, 64% to 23% against McMahon, 66% to 19% against Schiff. Everything can happen if Democrats aren’t careful (see neighboring Massachussetts), but Blumenthal isn’t Martha Coakley.

CO, NH, NV, OH: 4 key Senate races, 7 rough polls for Senate Democrats.

Ohio: Democrats led this open race for much of 2009, but Rasmussen’s new poll is its second in a row to find Rob Portman has grabbed the edge. He leads Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 37% and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 43% to 40%. These numbers are very interesting because the Democratic establishment holds Fisher to be a stronger candidate; yet, Portman increased his lead against Fisher whilelosing ground against Brunner! Overall, then, the two parties are roughly where they were in early December.

Colorado: This week, we received three surveys testing Colorado, which until this week an underpolled state:

  • Rasmussen has by far the worst set of results for Democrats: Senator Michael Bennet trails former Lieut. Gov. 49% to 37%, and he’s also behind lower-profile Tom Wiens (44% to 38%) and Ken Buck (43% to 38%). Former Speaker Andrew Romanoff trails Norton and Wiens by the same margin but is only behind Buck by 1%.
  • In response to these ugly numbers, Bennet released an internal poll, which might have found better results but he is still behind Jane Norton, 43% to 40%.
  • Finally, just this afternoon Research 2000 released the best news Bennet has received in quite some time: Bennet leads Norton 40% to 39%, Buck 41% to 38% and Wiens 42% to 38%; Romanoff trails Norton by 2% but leads Buck and Wiens by 1% and 2%.

There is quite a lot of disparity between these three surveys, and Bennet’s camp will be delighted that he finally manages a lead in a poll - even if it’s well within the MoE. That said, it is clear from all of these surveys that Bennet is stuck at 40% - a dismal place for an incumbent to be, even an appointed one. Colorado remains a major problem for Democrats.

New Hampshire: Another tough Rasmussen poll, since it shows that what once looked like a Democratic-leaning open seat might now be leaning Republican: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes 49% to 40%. (This is roughly the same margin Rasmussen found in September.) Hodes does led lower-profile Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie 45% to 38% and 43% to 37%, respectively. This is

Nevada: With everyone now aware that Harry Reid is one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, there’s been speculation that the party might try to convince him to pull a Chris Dodd, as in retire for the good of the party. But a new poll released last week revealed that Democrats don’t have a Blumenthal-like savior:

  • PPP found Harry Reid trailing Sue Lowden 51% to 41% and Danny Tarkanian 50% to 42% - very ugly margins for a longtime senator against second-tier challengers. Yet, the Republicans enjoy similar margins against other Democrats! Rep. Shelly Berkley trails by 8% against both; Rose Miller trails by 10% and 11%, respectively. Only Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman manages to stay on an equal footing: he ties Tarkanian at 41%, leads Lowden 42% to 40%.
  • If PPP’s numbers were ugly, how can we describe Rasmussen’s? Here, Reid is crushed Lowden 48% to 36% and Tarkanian 50% to 36%! He manages to stay close to former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, but even here he’s stuck at 40%, trailing 44% to 40%.

If polls showing other Democrats doing better than Reid started piling up, the party could hope to convince him to retire; but PPP’s survey cuts that hope short (Research 2000 will also soon release a similar poll), which allows Republicans to feel increasingly confident about picking-up Nevada.

OH, NV and MA: 3 key Governor’s races, three tough polls for Dems

Ohio: If Ted Strickland started 2009 as the clear favorite, he starts 2010 trailing former Rep. John Kasich. Rasmussen finds him trailing 47% to 40%, which is actually a 2% improvement over December’s numbers. Other surveys have found a closer race, but there’s no question that Strickland is in for a very tough battle.

Nevada: Rory Reid is in as much trouble as his father, only the position they’re vying for is different. Sure, Reid manages to lead incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons 43% to 36% in Mason Dixon’s poll, but considering that Gibbons is even more unpopular (his favorability rating is 18% to 53%) than David Paterson that doesn’t mean much; the favorite to win the Republican nomination, Brian Sandoval, crushes Reid 53% to 31%! In a three-way race involving Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who is considering running as an independent, Sandoval and Goodman are close (35% to 33% for the former), with 20% for Reid. There’s no mystery as to why: Reid’s favorability rating is 25% to 35%, Goodman’s 43-15 and Sandoval’s 36-5. Hard to explain Reid’s numbers by anything but his last name.

Massachussetts: Two new polls confirm that Martha Coakley isn’t the only struggling Massachussetts Democrat:

  • PPP shows that Governor Deval Patrick has a dismal approval rating of just 22%. In three-way races involving Treasurer Tom Cahill (as an independent) and one of his 2 Republican opponents, Patrick is ahead but he receives less than 30% (!) and leads whoever is in second place by just 2% or 3%. In both match-ups, the 3 candidates are within 8%.
  • The Boston Globe poll is more favorable to Patrick: His favorability rating is a bad but not horrendous 39/50 and his leads over Cahill are a bit larger. If the GOP nominee is Charlie Baker, Patrick receives 30, Cahill 23% and Baker 19%; if the GOP nominee is Mihos, the numbers are 32, 23 and 19 for Mihos.

Much will depend on how Cahill positions his campaign. A former Democrat, he has been inching closer to the right since announcing he would run as an independent, for instance asking a conservative Republican state legislator to join his ticket.

Democrats’ silver lining is definitely Connecticut

Not only did Chris Dodd’s retirement all but guarantee Democrats will save Connecticut’s Senate seat, but Research 2000 shows they can look forward to in the Governor’s race - and also the 2012 Senate contest. Susan Bysiewicz, who just dropped out of the race last week, was in a very strong position: she led Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele 52% to 33%, Tom Foley 51% to 35% and Mark Boughton 52% to 32%. But the Democrats left in the race look solid as well: Ned Lamont leads 46-36, 46-37 and 46-34 while Dan Malloney is up 44-35, 43-37 and 44-34, respectively.

Research 2000 also tested the 2012 Senate race. In a two-way general election match-up between Joe Lieberman and Chris Murphy, the representative leads the independent senator 45% to 26% - it’s quite stunning to see such a longtime senator fail to receive more than a quarter of the vote. Not only does Murphy crush Lieberman among Democrats (71% to 20%), but also among independents (41% to 22%). Democrats might fear a lot of losses in 2010, but at least Lieberman looks to have too low support to have much hope to win re-election in 2012.

As Dem incumbents tank, open seat candidate Lee Fisher stays afloat

Published
by
Taniel
on December 10, 2009
in OH-Gov, OH-Sen and PA-Sen
. 4 Comments

In search for any polling news they can hang on to, Democrats can take solace in Rasmussen’s poll of the Ohio Senate race. Rob Portman does lead Lee Fisher 38% to 36%, but at a time so many incumbents (Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid) are trailing by widening margins, Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor is at least staying competitive.

Of course, that’s nothing for the DSCC to boast about. Portman trailed by wide margins for much of the year, grabbing his first very lead in late September; as such, these numbers find that shifting national environment is impacting Democrats’ Ohio prospects as much as those of any other state. That’s all the more clear when we consider Portman’s standing against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner: His 40% to 33% lead is the largest he has posted in any survey this year.

But the point remains that Democratic candidates  are managing to stay afloat in the GOP-held open seats they’re hoping to contest (this also goes for Robin Carnahan in Missouri and for Jack Conway in Kentucky). This certainly suggests that evidence that the electorate’s mood is first and foremost anti-incumbent, and that in some cases Democrats might be better off dealing with open seats than in protecting their senators - this is obviously aimed at Chris Dodd, but also perhaps at Blanche Lincoln as I’m certainly open to the argument that Brian Halter would have an easier time winning the general election.

Rasmussen’s poll of Pennsylvania’s Senate race would seem to dispute that hypothesis: Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by comparable margins, respectively 46-42 and 44-38. That’s all the more a blow to Sestak’s arguments that he’d have an easier time winning the general election given that Rasmussen’s October poll had Sestak in a substantially stronger position than the incumbent (he led by 1%, whereas Specter trailed by 5%). Yet, it goes without saying that such an analysis is deeply flawed.

For a 5-term senator to be stuck at 42% - not to mention to be trailing a lesser-known opponent - if far more problematic than Sestak’s deficit. Specter is universally known, and it will be very tough for him to convince voters who are unwilling to back him that he should have another term. (Corzine’s decisive is the most recent example of the fact that an incumbent rarely climbs out of such low levels of support.) Sestak has more room to grow as few voters have a firm impression of him. That said, there’s no question that PA continues to look like a far better takeover opportunity for the GOP than was anticipated last spring - though I claim some credit in pointing out early that Democrats could come to regret accepting the senator with open arms.

In the Democratic primary, Specter leads Sestak 48% to 35%. While the poll is being covered as great news for the senator because Rasmussen’s October poll had a 46% to 42% margin (reading The Hill’s analysis of Sestak’s “staggering” drop, you would think the bottom has fallen out for the challenger), that remains a very respectable showing for the House member given the name recognition difference and the fact that the campaign has many more months to heat up. That said, Specter has to be reassured that anti-incumbent sentiment is not extending to the Democratic electorate; his favorability rating is very strong among his new party’s base, which renders it difficult for Sestak to get traction.

Yet, the week’s most stunning evidence of Democratic incumbents’ fall from grace is not Specter’s trailing or the 13% deficit Dodd face in a poll released earlier this week (we have gotten used to seeing such results) but rather the collapse of Ted Strickland’s numbers in the gubernatorial half of Rasmussen’s Ohio poll: Despite an approval rating that isn’t dismal (48-50), Strickland trails Republican challenger John Kasich 48% to 39% - a massive margin that confirms sitting Governors will be in a very tough spot next year.

That the poll was released by Rasmussen might lead many to dismiss the results, but there is no denying that Strickland’s situation is worsening. Not only is the trendline negative (in September, Rasmussen released the very first poll finding Kasich ahead - and that was only by 1%), but Quinnipiac confirms that Kasich gaining: Their latest poll, released in early November, had a tie at 40%. Given that Republicans are already slightly favored to pick-up Iowa and Michigan’s governorships, Democrats will have to fight to keep a foothold in the Midwest.

Quinnipiac finds ugly results for Senate Democrats in Connecticut and Ohio

Published
by
Taniel
on November 12, 2009
in CT-Sen, NC-Sen, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 6 Comments

The Senate landscape has been getting progressively more complicated for Democrats, and two new Quinnipiac polls released this morning confirm that the time at which the party was dreaming up further expansions of its majority is long gone.

Ohio: Portman captures his first Quinnipiac lead

This change of fortune is nowhere more obvious than in Ohio. Ever since Senator Voinovich announced his retirement, Democratic candidates Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner have enjoyed a big lead in polls over Rob Portman - a lead ranging up to 15% in one survey. That wasn’t because Fisher and Brunner are overwhelmingly popular, nor because Portman has a bad reputation - in fact, neither enjoy a particularly impressive name recognition - but because Ohio’s electorate was still as Democratic-leaning as it had been in 2008. In a generic confrontation between relatively low-profile contenders, voters were decisively choosing Democratic candidates.

That is no longer the case. Quinnipiac, which in early September had found Fisher leading by 11% and Brunner leading by 9%, now finds Portman ahead for the very first time of the year. Sure, the margins are small (39% to 36% over Fisher, 38% to 34% over Brunner) but the trendline is not. Portman’s progression is due both to his solidifying his numbers among Republican respondents and to a 13% turnaround among independents.

Ohio is moving back to behaving like a swing state, and Democrats can no longer expect to coast to startlingly easy victories, as they did in 2006.

This isn’t a particularly mysterious phenomenon, of course. That year, Republican controlled the White House and Ohio’s governorships - two positions that are now in Democratic hands, which allows the GOP to run as the outsider party. That Barack Obama’s approval rating in Ohio is for the first time in negative territory - 45% to 50% - is as important a development in the Senate race’s context as any evolution to Fisher or Portman’s approval rating.

Democrats risk more than failing to pick-up this Senate seat, however: Quinnipiac also finds that they could lose the governorship, as Ted Strickland not only sees his approval rating decline (now 45% to 43%) but is for the first time tied (at 40%) with his Republican rival, former Rep. John Kasich. In September, he led by 10%; in February, by 30%. Those numbers are all the more ugly when we consider that Kasich’s name recognition is very low (67% have no opinion of him): For an incumbent not to lead a little-known challenger a year before the election is a sure sign of trouble.

Connecticut: Dodd suffers setback

Quinnipiac’s second poll of the day is just as brutal for Democrats. Ever since an April poll found him Rob Simmons trailing by 16%, Chris Dodd had managed to cut the gap to single-digits: He was only down 44% to 39% in September, a trendline that coincided with an uptick in his approval rating. But this new poll finds Dodd’s numbers back where they were in the spring: Despite his best efforts to address his image over the past six months, he remains in a deep hole.

His approval rating is stuck at a dismal 40%, with 54% disapproving of his action. Against former Rep. Rob Simmons, he trails 49% to 38%, hurt by a 29% deficit among independents and by his failure to break 68% among Democrats. He also trails former Ambassador Tom Foley 47% to 40%, Linda McMahon 42% to 40%. He ties state Senator Sam Caligiuri at 42% and manages to grab a 1% edge over Peter Schiff; even in that latter match-up, he receives only 74% of the Democratic vote and trails among independents by 13%.

In short, Connecticut confirms its place at the very top of next year’s endangered Senate seats - especially if Rob Simmons, who enjoys a 40% to 10% favorability rating, emerges as the GOP nominee. That means that Dodd’s biggest hope might reside in the Republican primary’s chaotic nature. Any of 5 candidates could clinch victory (Quinnipiac has Simmons leading McMahon 27% to 18%, with everyone else in single-digits); since Connecticut holds its primaries in August, a nasty intraparty fight could give Dodd an opening.

North Carolina: Burr receives the usual numbers

Dodd’s numbers might have gotten worse, but PPP’s monthly look at North Carolina’s Senate race finds little movement. Richard Burr’s approval rating is underwhelming but positive: 41% approve, 30% disapprove. In the general election, Burr might be under 50% but he leads by double-digits: 45% to 35% against Bob Etheridge, 45% to 34% against Elaine Marshall, 45% to 33% against Dennis Wicker, 44% to 32% against Kevin Foy, 45% to 32% against Kenneth Lewis and 44% to 31% against Cal Cunningham.

As has been the case in all polls released, there is no meaningful electability differential between the Democratic contenders. In particular, Marshall and Etheridge would enter the race in a comparable situation (Research 2000 last week had Burr leading Marshall by 7% and Etheridge by 8%). There was some discussion here as to whether that spoke ill of Marshall, since she’d presumably enjoy a notoriety edge, but most surveys have found her name recognition is as low as Etheridge’s.

On the other hand, both Etheridge and Marshall can hope to close part of their general election deficit once they introduce themselves to voters: In their match-ups against Burr, about 25% of Democratic respondents are undecided compared to only 12% of Republicans. That signals the race could certainly be competitive next year.

Yet, it also illustrates the contrast between vulnerable Democratic Senators’ situation (they are struggling to mount any sort of lead against little-known opponents) and vulnerable Republican Senators’ situation: Burr or Vitter might be stuck under 50%, but Democratic and independent voters aren’t committed to ousting them. That might change by next fall, but as of now it is further proof of the enthusiasm gap.

Poll watch: Corzine’s rise, gay rights’ strong support and Specter with dismal re-elect

Published
by
Taniel
on October 28, 2009
in Gay marriage, NJ-Gov, OH-Gov, PA-Sen and Uncategorized
. 1 Comment

6 days to go: Corzine grabs significant lead while Deeds sinks

If PPP and Rasmussen had brought some worrisome news to Jon Corzine’s camp yesterday, today’s Quinnipiac poll all but takes cares of their worries. The reputable pollster, which has been polling the contest monthly since August 2008, finds Corzine ahead for the first time since last November - and we’re not talking about a tiny edge: Corzine leads 43% to 38%, outside of the poll’s margin of error. Chris Daggett is at 13%.

If we forget about the recent Suffolk poll’s bizarre results, this is the largest lead Corzine has enjoyed since the first week of January. What is just as important as the margin of his advantage is the level of support he reaches: Corzine is finally able to rise above the 42% ceiling he’s been stuck under for months, with Rasmussen and Quinnipiac now both showing him at 43%. That doesn’t look like much but it should be enough for him to clinch victory as long as Daggett stays in the 12%-14% range.

One caveat: Quinnipiac’s poll was conducted from the 20th to the 26th, so it’s more dated than the two surveys released yesterday (Rasmussen’s was conducted on the 26th only, PPP’s from the 23rd to the 26th). That period corresponds to the intensification of Chris Christie’s attacks against Daggett, and both PPP and Rasmussen found that those attacks were succeeding in hurting the independent and by extension helping the Republican. Quinnipiac has Daggett still more popular than not (21-16), so we shall see what polls say in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Virginia polls are all finding the same result: Bill McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds by double-digits. The SUSA poll that had him up 19% two weeks ago looked like an outlier at first, but it doesn’t look far-fetched anymore. At this point, I’ll do little else than relay the latest numbers. First, Rasmussen has McDonnell up 54% to 41%; the Republican’s favorability rating is so high (62/30) you wouldn’t guess he just went through a heated campaign. Second, Virginia Commonwealth University has McDonnell crushing Deeds, 54% to 36%.

6 days to go, and good news for gay rights in Maine and Washington

Most surveys of Maine’ have found the slightest of edges for the “no” - certainly nothing large enough to reassure gay rights defenders that same-sex marriage will be upheld. (Many California polls had Prop 8 failing in the run-up to the 2008 vote.) But a poll released a few days ago by Pan Atlantic SMS found the largest lead yet for the pro-gay marriage vote: 53% to 42%. That’s a lot of undecided voters for gay marriage opponents to convince, especially given that those who make up their mind at the last minute tend to break towards the “no” in referendum votes.

But that rule of thumb is not that useful for high-profile issues like this one. While it is a cliche to say that an election comes down to turnout, this is one contest in which it is no overstatement: This referendum is the highest-profile vote on Maine’s ballot, so it’s the main issue that will drive voters to the polls. So which group is most motivated by gay marriage will have an outsized importance - and this is one metric on which social conservatives have tended to have an edge.

Another important gay rights vote is occurring in Washington State, which is set to vote on a referendum to establish expanded domestic partnerships (R-71). Two new surveys released this week find the “yes” in the lead: The University of Washington has it easily passing (57% to 38%) while SUSA finds a tighter margin (50% to 43%, with the 40% of respondents who’ve already voted approving partnerships 53% to 42%). Here again, the gay rights-position is favored going into next week’s vote, but referendums are hard enough to poll that this could go both ways.

Note that the White House has ignored gay rights activists’ pleas to take any stance on either states’ votes - let alone an active one.

2010: Worrisome numbers for Specter and Strickland

By now, we are used to seeing Arlen Specter suffering from ugly numbers but it’s hard to overstate how dismal it is for such a longtime incumbent’s re-elect to stand at 23%; 66% of respondents in a new Franklin & Marshall poll say it’s time for something new. His favorability rating (28/46) is barely better.

It’s only because his rival are so little-known (only 26% have an opinion of Toomey, 16% of Sestak) that he manages to still lead direct match-ups. And given the wide name recognition gap, his 33-31 edge over Toomey and his 30-18 lead over Sestak isn’t impressive, especially when you consider that Sestak has closed the gap by 14% since F&M’s prior poll. Sestak does trail Toomey 28% to 20%, but that survey has such a huge number of undecided respondents that it’s not worth discussing much. (Don’t forget that two mid-October polls had Sestak over-performing Specter in the general election.)

Another state, another endangered incumbent: A University of Cincinnati poll finds Ohio Governor Ted Strickland holding on to a 49% to 46% edge against former Rep. John Kasich; among all registered voters, the lead is smaller still (48-47). We haven’t heard that much about this contest, mostly because there hasn’t been much primary or recruitment drama on the side of the challenging party (Kasich signaled he’d get in the race early, and his hold on the nomination hasn’t been contested) but it’s sure to be one of the year’s highest-stake battles.

Polls show GOP boost in Ohio and Michigan, Jerry Brown’s strength in California

Published
by
Taniel
on September 28, 2009
in CA-Gov, CO-Sen, MI-Gov, NJ-Gov, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 11 Comments

OH: Rasmussen gives Portman first lead in 9 months, Kasich first lead ever

Ever since George Voinovich retired, all but the very first of Ohio’s Senate polls found both Democratic candidates with a solid lead over Republican Rob Portman - one that had extended to as much as 15%. But as is often the case, Rasmussen brings comfort to Republicans by finding a far more competitive race: Portman gets 41% against Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher’s 40%, and he is ahead of Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 40% to 38%. Both margins are well within the MoE, but they represent substantially stronger Republican performances than in other polls.

This is Rasmussen’s first poll of the race, so there is no trendline. In fact, Ohio is rarely polled - especially when compared to a state like New York, which is frustrating considering the high stakes of the Buckeye State’s contests. It’s important to note that Rasmussen contradicts a central finding of other Ohio polls. There is here little name recognition differential between the Democratic candidates and Portman; yet, other polls found Brunner and Fisher far better known. (This is not the first time Rasmussen has found some puzzling name recognition results.)

Rasmussen also tested the Governor’s race, and here again the results are very encouraging for Republicans: Plagued by a mediocre-to-bad approval rating (47% to 50%), Governor Ted Strickland is behind former Rep. John Kasich 46% to 45%. This is the first poll ever released to find Kasich posting any sort of lead, and though the margin is well within the MoE there is no question that this is not favorable territory for any incumbent. Over the summer, PPP and Quinnipiac both found Strickland leading by low single-digits, so this poll does not come out of the blue.

CA: Brown runs far stronger than Newsom

In the heels of its poll finding Barbara Boxer building a lead in the Senate race, Rasmussen released that survey’s gubernatorial numbers. The results should please everyone in the race but San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. While former Governor Jerry Brown has comfortable leads against the 3 Republican candidates (44% to 35% against Meg Whitman, 44% to 34% against Tom Campbell, 45% to 32% against Steve Poizner) Newsom trails against all three: 42% to 36% against Campbell, 41% to 36% against Whitman and 40% to 36% against Poizner.

I don’t know whether the poll’s most surprising result is the huge differential between Newsom and Brown (Research 2000 recently found Brown running stronger, but nothing resembling Rasmussen’s findings) or the fact that Campbell enjoys a bigger lead than his two Republican rivals. Campbell is not as high-profile as Whitman and Poizner, and he has gotten less media attention - at least when it comes to a national audience. But with Whitman truly to respond to the jaw-dropping revelation that she did not vote for 30 years, Poizner and Campbell definitely have an opening to hammer her; the former is already trying with this hard-hitting new ad.

NJ: Democracy Corps shows Corzine gaining

For months, Democracy Corps has found the most favorable results for Jon Corzine but never had the New Jersey Governor been so close to his competitor: Chris Christie is up 40% to 39%, with Chris Daggett at 11%. Do with the margin what you will (as long as no other pollster finds Corzine within the MoE, whether PPP, Monmouth, Quinnipiac or Franklin, I’ll have trouble believing that Corzine has tied things up), but the trendline is certainly interesting since it suggests Corzine is slowly gaining ground even within Democracy Corps’s turnout model. The evolution is small, however: Christie led by 3% three weeks ago.

MI: Democrats face uphill climb

No one doubts that Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry will have a tough fight on his hands in 2010, but two new surveys suggest Michigan’s governorship is one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities next year:

  • An Inside Michigan Politics survey has Cherry trailing Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard 41% to 38%; he does lead businessman Rick Snyder 42% to 34%. IMP only tested Cox in an unexpected 3-way race involving Cherry and Democratic state Speaker Andy Dillon; Cox leads Cherry manages 35% to 33%.

The polls test different match-ups, so it is difficult to conclude anything electability-wise. Yet, Cox can point not only to his 13% lead but also to the fact that he comes on top of both polls’ primary trial heats. He is in a virtual tie with Rep. Hoekstra in one; he has a somewhat larger lead over Hoekstra in the latter. Also: Both institutes find Rick Snyder with only 2% of the GOP primary, but he should not be underestimated: He just surprisingly won the high-profile straw poll at Mackinac Island’s Republican Leadership Conference. This could help him get more attention, raise more money.

CO: A first look at Senate primaries

In what is the first poll testing Senator Michael Bennet’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary, Republican institute Tarrance Group found the incumbent in a dangerous position against former Speaker Andrew Romanoff: Bennet leads 41% to 27%, a certain proof of vulnerability. Obviously, Bennet cannot be held at the same standard as other senators, for whom a 14% lead in a primary would be verging on the catastrophic: Since his name recognition is still relatively low, Bennet has more room to grow than someone like Arlen Specter, despite the fact that the Pennsylvania senator is posting similar numbers.

On the Republican side, former LG Jennifer Norton crushes DA Ken Buck 45% to 15%. It’s still unclear how this race will shape-up: Buck is clearly to frame it as a conservative-versus-establishment battle, so we’ll have to see how Norton seeks to position herself. In the gubernatorial primary, former Rep. Scott McInnis starts far ahead of state Senator Josh Penry; however, McInnis might not be the establishment favorite since Penry has earned a lot of good press in conservative circles as a GOP rising star. He will have to battle McInnis’s superior name recognition, however.

Senate: Qpac has Ohio swinging Dem, Rasmussen shows GOP leading in CO, NH and NV

Published
by
Taniel
on September 16, 2009
in CO-Sen, NH-Sen, NV-Sen, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 4 Comments

In the heels of yesterday’s Research 2000 polls that found Democrats Chris Dodd and Blanche Lincoln enjoying sunnier yet still worrisome numbers, a flurry of Senate polls gives both parties something to celebrate. Let’s get right to the numbers, as none of these contests needs any introduction:

  • In Ohio, Quinnipiac confirms what most pollsters have found: Democrats have a a clear early edge. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher leads former Rep. Rob Portman 42% to 31% while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is ahead 39% to 34%. (Against car dealer Tom Ganley, who is challenging Portman, Fisher is ahead 41% to 29% and Brunner leads 39% to 31%.)
  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen is the first pollster to find Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte with a substantial lead against Rep. Paul Hodes, 46% to 38%. The two candidates have a widely differing favorability rating: 58% to 21% for Ayotte, 46% to 38% for Hodes.
  • In Colorado, Rasmussen gives us the very first poll testing former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton - and the numbers are just as worrisome for Democrats as last week’s survey, which tested other Republican contenders. Norton leads Bennet 45% to 36%; she is also ahead of former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, 42% to 34%. Bennet’s favorability rating is a very worrisome 36-49, which leaves me skeptical as other surveys have not found the appointed senator’s name recognition anywhere near that level.
  • In what is quickly emerging as the Democrats’ biggest 2010 headache, Rasmussen finds Nevada’s Harry Reid trailing former party chairwoman Sue Lowden 50% to 40% and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian 50% to 43%. Here again, I find the favorability ratings bizarre, as I am highly skeptical that enough people already know who Lowden is to give her a 48-27 rating. The same goes for Tarkanian: His 57-30 rating makes him as well-known as incumbent senators of most states.

We are once again confronted with a polling situation that has led to many questions over the past few months: In many races, Rasmussen serves us surveys that are more favorable to Republicans than those of other pollsters - but certainly not in a way that allows us to dismiss these results. For one, this is now consistent enough that it is likely due to a difference in the likely voter screen, and there is simply not enough 2010 polling circulating to know which screen could lead to outlier. There is enough evidence out there that Republicans are more motivated that it would be foolish to blindly denounce Rasmussen’s LV model.

More importantly, Rasmussen’s results in most states are really not significantly different from other surveys - certainly not enough for us to dismiss them. I have made this point about Rasmussen’s surveys in VA and NJ, but it also applies to Nevada and Colorado: PPP has found quite troubling numbers for Bennet in CO (if Beauprez leads by 4%, it is that far-fetched for Rasmussen to show a former LG ahead by 9%?) and Mason Dixon’s NV results are very similar to those of Rasmussen - namely Reid trailing outside of the margin of error against these two potential opponents. Research 2000’s survey was a bit better, but it still had both Tarkanian and Lowden ahead.

To recap: Rasmussen’s survey is the third pollster in the past month that has Reid trailing Tarkanian and Lowden - the second that has one of the Republicans ahead by 10%. If that’s not enough for Reid to push the panic button, I don’t know what is.

The one state in which Rasmussen differs substantially from other pollsters is CA since there is no other evidence for its finding that Barbara Boxer is only ahead of Carly Fiorina by 4%. We can’t add NH to this category. Though Ayotte’s lead might be bigger than we have seen, the Granite State is rarely polled and other surveys (UNH, R2000) have also shown the Attorney General in the lead, albeit within the MoE. So Rasmussen finds the Republican in the lead - but not by margin that is not explained by differences in the LV screen. That’s something we should be able to judge for ourselves by the time 2010 rolls around.

As such, we are here in a situation in which the DSCC can point to some polling to suggest its candidates are not in as big holes as Rasmussen suggests - but there are hardly any recent surveys that find what can genuinely be qualified as good for Bennet, Reid or Hodes.

That’s why Quinnipiac’s Ohio poll is so welcome. The state might be one of the Democrats’ golden pick-up opportunities, but the GOP has always believed Portman enough to guarantee a top-tier campaign. Yet, pollster after pollster have found Fisher and Brunner with a consistent lead. Sure, some of it this comes from a name recognition differential (47% have an opinion of Fisher, 41% of Brunner, 27% of Portman) but that alone cannot explain how the Lieutenant Governor can muster a double-digit lead.

The bottom line is that Ohio still looks like the blue-leaning state it became in the 2006 midterms, during which voters gave Democratic candidates two huge victories in the open Senate and gubernatorial seats. In a generic confrontation between relatively low-profile contenders, voters are choosing the Democratic candidate.

This good news extends to the state’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is strengthening his position. Quinnipiac finds his approval rating inching upwards - 48% to 42% - and his lead against former Rep. John Kasich solidifying, 46% to 36%. Sure, Strickland is still endangered - as is any incumbent under 50%. But in the current circumstances, a double-digit lead is nothing for any Midwestern governor to be ashamed of - not to mention that it’s Strickland biggest lead in any poll since April.

Coleman, Strickland and Hutchison won’t be happy with new polls

Published
by
Taniel
on July 10, 2009
in MN-Gov, OH-Gov, OH-Sen and TX-Gov
. 0 Comments

Yet another Ohio polls finds narrowing Democratic edge

This week’s Quinnipiac survey showing a collapse in Barack Obama’s and Ted Strickland’s approval rating in Ohio must have given a lot of Democrats some heartburn, especially since it came in the heels of June PPP poll confirming the Governor’s vulnerability. We now have a third pollster who got in the Ohio fray, and Research 2000 finds results that are similar to Quinnipiac’s:

  • Of the six politicians whose favorability rating is tested, Strickland has the worst numbers by far: 44% to 40%. He leads former Rep. John Kasich 44% to 39%, which is a good result for the Republican given that his name recognition is not particularly high (more than half of respondents have no opinion of him).
  • Over on the Senate race, Democrats have the same edge other polls have found: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman 42% to 35%, Jennifer Brunner is ahead 40% to 36%. All three have good favorability ratings, though we should take into account the fact that Portman’s name recognition is lower.
  • The one good news for Democrats: Obama’s favorability numbers are strong (59% to 35%). The one caveat is that Quinnipiac’s poll measured his approval rating, so we’re not comparing the same thing.

With three polls released by three different pollsters finding Strickland well under 50% and leading a lesser-known opponent by mid-single digits, there is no more doubt that Democrats are in for a tough fight. If voters do not feel that the economy has rebounded by the fall of 2010, Midwestern governors will be the recession’s most logical victims. We shall see the extent to which Strickland’s weakening numbers affect his party in the Senate race: Fisher and Brunner are systematically ahead of Portman, but the Republican has more room to grow as more voters have not heard about him.

In Texas, Perry leads Hutchison and Obama leads Romney

The Hutchison-Perry showdown is bound to be the mother of 2010 primaries, but it’s also sure to be very hard to poll since it won’t be easy to determine the turnout universe and the enthusiasm of both sides’ supporters. That said, the conventional wisdom going into the race was that Kay Bailey Hutchison would be the heavy favorite to win the gubernatorial nomination. The first poll of the race had her leading by 25%. Yet, polls released since then have struck a fatal blow to those expectations, and the latest survey from the University of Texas goes as far as to show the incumbent Governor is leading 38% to 26%.

While the poll’s MoE is a large 5%, those are great trendlines for Perry - Hutchison led by 6% in UT’s March poll. And I do believe that the Governor has more to gain as the campaign unfolds: His ideology fits better with the state’s Republican base and as such he is well positioned to take an advantage once the campaign heats up and passions flare.

One fascinating nugget in the poll: Obama is ahead of Romney 36% to 34%. Sure, that’s a lot of undecideds we’re talking about - but for a Democrat to lead in any Texas survey is well worth signaling and it’s a clear response to those who worry Obama has already lost the vote of typically conservative-leaning independents.

Minnesota’s first gubernatorial poll that tests Coleman

It’s barely been a week since Norm Coleman conceded the Senate race but PPP has already tested his strength in a potential gubernatorial race. The result: Coleman’s favorability rating stands at a disastrous 38-52 and voters say 2-1 that his handling of the Senate recount makes them less likely to support him in future races. And yet, Coleman remains competitive against three potential Democratic opponents: He trails former Senator Mark Dayton 41% to 39%, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak 43% to 37%; he leads 42% to 34% against state Rep. Margaret Kelliher.

Those numbers suggest Coleman could be competitive in a 2010 race, but they certainly should not make him confident: His name recognition is far higher than that any of the Democrats he was tested against (even Dayton’s) and the fact that he fails to break 40% suggests that his image might have been irremediably deteriorated not only by the recount saga but also by the brutal negativity of his campaign against Franken.

Also, don’t forget that it’s very unclear who will run in this gubernatorial race: None of the four politicians tested by PPP have declared their candidacy. As such, it will take a long time to draw any conclusions as to which party - let alone who - is expected to win the governorship. For those who are really into this contest, Politics in Minnesota has prepared this handy chart tracking the more than 40 politicians (!) who have been mentioned as potential contenders.

Second consecutive poll finds New Jersey tightening

Jon Corzine is still hovering around the 40% mark, but at least he has cut his deficit and gotten Chris Christie back under 50%. After mid-June’s primary, Rasmussen was the first pollster to find the Republican getting majority support; now, their latest poll has him ahead 46% to 39%. The trendline is within the margin of error, but it also comes just days after a Farleigh Dickinson survey showed Corzine facing his smallest deficitsince April. The Governor has a long way to go before he even gets in a competitive position; but his campaign has just started going negative and trying to define Christie, so we will have to see how those efforts go.

New poll reminds Dems that economis crisis could mean a tough cycle

Published
by
Taniel
on July 7, 2009
in 2010-general, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 3 Comments

For months, Quinnipiac’s Ohio polls found the Buckeye State remained faithful to its newly acquired blue state status, giving Barack Obama, Ted Strickland and the party’s Senate nominees high marks. But the July survey finds a collapse in the Democrats’ numbers - especially at the presidential and gubernatorial level:

  • Barack Obama’s approval rating has plunged from 62%-31% in May to a mediocre 49%-44% in July. We don’t have to look very far to see where this dip is coming from: Two months ago, voters approved of Obama’s handling of the economy by 21%; now, 48% disapprove while 46% approve - quite a sharp drop.
  • Governor Ted Strickland’s approval rating has also plummeted: It stood as 56-29 in May, now it’s down to 46-42. Here again, you can link the Governor’s fall to the economy: Two months ago, voters approved his handling of the budget by 3% but they now disapprove by 19%.
  • In gubernatorial match-ups, Strickland leads former Rep. John Kasich 43% to 38% and former Senator Mike DeWine 41% to 40%; in May, he led them by 19% and 12% respectively. Strickland’s drop is fueled by independents deserting him.

The trendlines are so brutal that we will need to see some confirmation in upcoming polls. However, Quinnipiac’s numbers correspond to those of another pollster. In June, PPP found Strickland with a nearly identical approval rating, a nearly identical drop-off and as narrow a lead against Kasich. There is thus no denying that the Ohio Governor is quickly emerging as one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle.

That this evolution can be directly tied to the economic crisis should be of great worry to Democrats. Ohio might no longer be the most important battleground state, but voters’ increasing disapproval of Obama and Strickland’s handling of the economy is symptomatic of the political trends across the economically distraught Midwest. Should these trends continue over the next year, Democrats could find themselves staring at a very tough cycle. Obama has time to recover by 2012 but vulnerable representatives and many Governors don’t have the luxury to time.

This poll thus points to the Democrats’ nightmare scenario: The economy does not recover over the next year, Obama’s approval rating falls to a mediocre level in swing states, the party’s Governors are also unable to overcome the stain of their state’s budgetary woes and Democrats suffer massive midterm losses at all levels.

Even if the political environment does not deteriorate enough for marginally vulnerable incumbents to fall, Democrats would be hard pressed to win the competitive open seats if they find themselves to any extent blamed for the economic downturn. Irrespective of the merits of Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner in Ohio or of Robin Carnahan in Missouri, it will be very hard for them to prevail if the GOP is enjoying any type of national breeze - even a slight one.

Quinnipiac’s poll also tested the Senate race and found that the large leads Democrats Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner were enjoying in May have melted away: Fisher now leads Rob Portman 35% and 31% while Brunner is only ahead 35% to 34%. Surprisingly, car dealer Tom Ganley, a political unknown tested for the first time, performs almost as well as Portman: Fisher is ahead 36% to 30% and Brunner 37% to 33%.

Yes, the Democrats keep their edge but Brunner and Fisher have a much higher name recognition than either of their Republican opponents; as such, much of their lead can be explained away by a notoriety differential. And here’s another reason that’s a bad sign. Voters really don’t know much about any of the Senate candidates, so Fisher and Brunner’s clear drop can be tied directly to Obama and Strickland’s declining popularity. And since this is an open seat, the party’s Senate prospects are sure to remain tied its executive leaders’ fortunes.

Quinnipiac also tested many gay-rights questions, finding that Ohio has not evolved as rapidly as other states: Not only do 60% oppose same-sex marriage but civil unions is only approved by 46% of respondents (versus 47%). On the other hand, it looks like some pro-marriage liberals responded “no” to the civil union question: When asked to choose between marriage, civil union and no legal recognition, 57% of respondents choose the first two options - including 65% of Democrats and 61% of independents. 57% also approve of a ban on discrimination based on sexual orientation, versus only 35%.

With numbers like that, it’s unlikely gay rights can be used as much of a wedge issue in upcoming cycles. But the poll also suggests that Republicans might not need social issues anymore as Democrats are increasingly having to take ownership of the economic crisis.

So can Obama maintain high approval ratings into the next year? Can Democratic Governors avoid being blamed for the economic crisis since their party controls both the state capital and the national capital? We’ve always known that these fundamental questions will be crucial in determining the shape of the 2010 cycle, but now polls are sending warning signs of their own.

Poll watch, incumbents in trouble edition

Published
by
Taniel
on June 23, 2009
in NV-Sen, NY-Gov, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 1 Comment

Ohio: Strickland’s troubles do not extent to his party’s Senate candidates

Different pollsters are now on the record finding widely contrasting results in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. A few weeks after Quinnipiac showed Governor Ted Strickland crushing his Republican opponent, a new PPP survey has just found the incumbent in as vulnerable a position as can be. However, PPP agrees with Quinnipiac when it comes to the Senate race, giving the Democratic candidates a clear edge.

Let’s start with the Governor’s contest:

  • PPP finds Strickland’s approval rating at a problematic 43%, with 42% disapproving. In January, PPP pegged it at 48-35.
  • In a match-up with probable Republican nominee John Kasich, Strickland is only ahead within the margin of error, 44% to 42%. Interestingly, Kasich himself is not popular, with his favorability rating sitting at an ugly 31-30.

The race is currently rated ‘lean retention’ in my gubernatorial rankings, so it is certainly not unexpected to see this race competitive. If anything, I would be far more surprised if Strickland manages to coast to re-election as Quinnipiac suggested he might: Governors all over the country are seeing their popularity collapse as the crisis unfolds and their leadership on economic matters is contested. Ohio’s situation is certainly not rosy, and Strickland’s approval rating could still get worse.

One problem for Republicans is that Kasich does not look popular enough to win if the race is anything but a referendum on Strickland’s leadership. And yet, PPP’s results for the open Senate race suggest that Ohio voters seem to dislike all of their politicians at this point:

  • Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, both Democrats, have practically the same favorability rating as Kasich (32-31 and 32-32, respectively). Probable Republican nominee Rob Portman fares even worse, 22% to 34% - a shockingly dismal number for someone who is not particularly well known.
  • In general election match-ups, Fisher leads Portman 41% to 32% and Brunner leads 40% to 32%.

Strickland might have lost ground since January, but his fellow Democrats have improved their position.
Perhaps that indicates that Ohio remains a left-leaning state - the weight of incumbency notwithstanding; perhaps it is a reflection of Rob Portman’s dismal favorability numbers. All we can say is that PPP’s numbers are very similar to most other surveys we have seen of this race. (Quinnipiac’s May results were almost exactly identical.) In short: Both Brunner and Fisher look to be in a strong position, and it does not look (for now) that the DSCC has to worry about one candidate being less electable than the other.

Nevada: Ensign’s popularity collapses, but still remains above Reid

In mid-May, Mason Dixon released a poll finding Harry Reid posting dismal numbers. His favorability rating (38-50) was pathetic compared to fellow Nevada Senator John Ensign’s strong results (53-18). A month has passed, and with have come revelations of Ensign’s sex scandal. Mason Dixon thus revisited the state to see what had change - and the results are bad for both Senators.

On the one hand, John Ensign’s favorability rating now stands at 39-37. That might not look bad given the type of press he has gotten lately, but that’s quite a huge drop from his May numbers. Thankfully for Ensign, he does not have to face voters for another 3 years, which should give him plenty of time to improve his image. Furthermore, 62% of respondents say Ensign should not resign.

As such, the poll is far worse for Reid, who has to face voters in just a few months and posts lower numbers than Ensign: His favorability rating has also dropped (34-46). Interestingly, his approval rating stands at a more respectable 43% (against 55%), suggesting that voters have a better view of Reid’s political action than they like him as a person. And of course, the best news for Reid is that he still has no challenger, and it is looking increasingly possible that he will not face serious opposition.

No miracle for Governor David Paterson

In the latest Siena survey, Paterson’s favorability rating stands at 31% and his approval rating at 20% - the first time since February these measures have stood above 30% and 20%, respectively. I have spent enough time describing to Paterson’s collapse that it seems appropriate to point to a small sign of uptick. But the mere fact that such results could be considered good news tells you all you need to know about Paterson’s vulnerabilities.

The electoral match-ups still show no hope for recovery for the Governor, as the time at which he’ll have to decide whether he’s seeking re-election is approaching. Against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (whose favorability rating stands at 71%), Paterson is crushed 69% to 16% - a larger margin than in May. Against the also popular Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 57% to 27%. As for a Cuomo-Giuliani match-up, the Attorney General keeps a solid lead - but he has dipped below 50%: 49% to 40%.

All of these results are just what we have come to expect, so there is no need to delve on them any longer. As I have said already, I wish a polling instute tested Paterson and Giuliani against another Democrat than Cuomo to bring something new to the discussion. This Siena poll’s most interesting findings concern state politics, as the survey finds that all the protagonists in the Senate coup are understandably unpopular, starting with Pedro Espada (12-33), Malcolm Smith (12-32) and Hiram Monserrate (7-36).

Poll watch: Democrats in control in Ohio and Pennsylvania

Published
by
Taniel
on May 7, 2009
in OH-Gov, OH-Sen and PA-Sen
. 0 Comments

Ohio: Strickland is popular, Democrats lead Senate race

The latest Senate polling has been encouraging for Republicans, but the DSCC can take comfort in a new Quinnipiac survey of the Ohio Senate race: Whoever the two parties nominate, Democrats would start with the upper-hand.

  • In the Democratic primary, there is no front-runner - and a huge number of undecided: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher receives 20%, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner gets 16% and state Rep. Tyrone Yates gets 4%.
  • In the Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mark Taylor 29% to 8%; strangely, Taylor gets the same level of support as auto dealer Tom Ganley.
  • In the general election, Fisher crushes Portman 42% to 31% and Taylor 41% to 39%. Brunner leads Portman 40% to 32% and Taylor 38% to 29%.

The good news for Democrats: Both Brunner and Fisher look to be in a strong position to win the general election, and it does not look (for now) that the DSCC has to worry about one candidate being less electable than the other. Furthermore, these numbers are similar to those Quinnipiac found in February and March, which indicates that the Democrats’ advantage is not an outlier and that Republicans have made no success in changing the political environment.

But there is also some hope for the GOP, as far more Republicans are undecided than Democrats. That is partly explained by a differential in name recognition: Voters are more likely to be familiar with Brunner and Fisher (both of whom hold statewide office) than with Portman, who should shore up his support among Republican voters once he introduces himself.

Finally, a note about the Democratic primary numbers: While much of the establishment has lined up behind Fisher, ll polls have shown Brunner within the margin of error. A competitive race should not worry Democrats, as Ohio’s primary is early enough to leave the winner time to prepare the general election.

Quinnipiac also tests the gubernatorial race, finding strong numbers for Governor Ted Strickland:

  • 57% of voters approve of his performance, compared to 29%.
  • Against former Rep. Kasich, Strickland triumphs 51% to 32%. (Back in March, Strickland was ahead of Kasich 51% to 31%.) He also leads by double-digits against former Senator Mike DeWine, 48% to 36%.
  • In a hypothetical Republican primary, DeWine is narrowly ahead, 35% to 23%.

These are very solid numbers for the Ohio Governor. A recent poll found that voters are not enthusiastic about his handling of the economy, but the financial crisis has not made a dent in his numbers - unlike so many other Governors. Whether he can keep that up all the way to the fall of 2010 remains to be seen, but he can afford to lose a lot of supporters before looking endangered. The only sign of worry in this poll is that he dips below 50% against DeWine, but we are talking about a former Senator - hardly your typical challenger. (Also, DeWine looks somewhat unlikely to run.)

Pennsylvania: Specter controls Democratic primary

Research 2000 offered us a comprehensive look at the Pennsylvania Senate race. Unfortunately, their survey was conducted before Tom Ridge announced he would not run, and the pollster did not have time to replace the former Governor with another moderate Republican.

Let’s start with the Democratic primary, as the numbers are not encouraging for those who are hoping to see the Senator defeated:

  • Specter crushes both of his potential Democratic opponents: 56% to 11% against Joe Sestak, 60% to 5% against Joe Torsella.
  • 37% of Democrats say they will definitely vote for Specter, while 16% say they will definitely vote for someone else. (23% say they are open to someone else.) Those numbers are not as strong for Specter, but they certainly don’t suggest a wave of discontented Democrats angry at being represented by a center-right Senator.

One big qualifier: Most Democrats have no idea who Torsella or Sestak are. While only 10% have no opinion of Specter (those who do like him 54% to 36%), 56% have no opinion of Sestak and 85% have none of Torsella. On the other hand, the fact that few people know them does not explain away the fact that the Senator is well above 50%. For now, a majority Democrats are comfortable at the idea of voting for Specger

Between 24% and 28% of Democrats said they would be less likely to vote for Specter if he voted against against Obama’s budget, against EFCA or against health care reform, but between 45% and 47% say it would have “no effect” on their vote (6% to 7% say it would make them more likely). Is Specter so entrenched that nothing he does will anger his constituents?

Obviously, a lot could change in the next year and it is worth remembering that primaries tend to be far much volatile than general elections as voters generally don’t think ill of incumbents of their own party. (Kos reminds us that Lieberman led Lamont 65% to 19% in a Quinnipiac poll of the primary just four months before the election.) Furthermore, Specter just switched over to the Democratic Party, so he was enjoying a wave of good will among his new party’s base when the poll was taken.

The rest of the poll also offers valuable information:

  • In a Republican primary match-up, Toomey leads Ridge 41% to 33%.
  • In the general election, Pat Toomey trails all match-ups: 55% to 31% against Arlen Specter (independents back the incumbent 61% to 23%), 37% to 32% against Sestak (34% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 24% of Republicans) and 35% to 33% against Joe Torsella (37% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 23% of Republicans).
  • Ridge is far stronger: He is behind Specter 45% to 44% (they are tied among independents), but he crushes Sestak 50% to 36% and Joe Torsella 52% to 32%.

Toomey enjoys strong name recognition: only 23% of respondents have no opinion of him. That is very important to keep in mind when looking at his general election numbers: 86% of respondents have no idea who Joe Torsella is, while 77% know of Pat Toomey. Yet, Torsella is ahead and handily wins the vote of independents. What better illustration of the fact that Toomey would face very tough odds in the general election?

Unfortunately for the NRSC, these numbers also suggest that Toomey would be very hard to beat in a primary: 66% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of him, versus 13% who have an unfavorable one! If Ridge is trailing Toomey, what chance does someone like Gerlach have? (Note that another poll released on Monday had Ridge crushing Toomey by 40%.)

But the poll’s most striking finding is how formidable a candidate Ridge would have been in the general election: Boosted by a strong favorabilty rating, he would have ensured that the race is a toss-up against whomever Democrats nominate. His decision not to run was arguably the biggest recruitment blow the NRSC has received so far this year.

GOP gets two credible recruits in Ohio, New Hampshire

Published
by
Taniel
on May 1, 2009
in NH-01, NH-Sen and OH-Gov
. 2 Comments

After scoring a triumphant victory in 2006, Ohio Governor Ted Strickland was not believed to be vulnerable in 2010. Unfortunately for Democrats, the dire economic conditions endanger any incumbent Governor - especially in the Midwest - and Strickland is no exception. While his poll numbers remain strong, a March survey found a majority of respondents disapproving of his handling of the economy.

Strickland now has a challenger: Former Rep. John Kasich, who was long believed to be planning a gubernatorial run, effectively jumped in the race today by filing paperwork to start raising money for a bid. The former Chairman of the House Budget Committee, Kasich served in the House for 18 years and he is well-known to conservatives nationwide as a guest host on Fox News’s O’Reilly Show.

An official announcement might not come for a few more months, but this move should be enough to dissuade other Republicans (including former Senator Mike DeWine) from getting near the race. That means that Ohio Republicans are close to finalizing their 2006 line-up: former Rep. Rob Portman for Senate and former Rep. John Kasish for Governor.

While Portman’s main vulnerability is his service under Bush, Kasich has been out of elected office since 2000. That does not mean that he should expect to escape from the GOP’s tainted reputation. Over the past decade, he remained active in Republican politics and his staunch fiscal conservatism puts him in line with the GOP’s current ideological line; combined with his role as a guest host on Fox News, that should help Democrats paint him as too far to the right.

Kasich’s biggest liability might very well be the fact that he spent six years as a managing director of Lehman Brothers’ investment banking division. That is not the type of role that Americans have come to appreciate, and it connects Kasich directly to the economic crisis in a way that Democrats will be delighted to exploit. How can Kasich expect to go after Strickland’s handling of the economy with Lehman Brothers on his resume?

The short take: Whether this race is competitive is largely beyond Kasich’s control. If the economic crisis damages Strickland’s approval rating and if the political environment significantly shifts against Democrats by the fall of 2010, Kasich would be a credible challenger. Otherwise, Strickland will be favored to win a second-term and the state GOP will focus most of its attention on the open Senate race.

—

After two painful losses against Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01, Republicans believe they can reclaim the district in 2010 by running Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who filed paperwork today to set up a run.

There is no doubt that Guinta would be a strong candidate. For one, he is the Mayor of New Hampshire’s biggest city - and mayors are often well-positioned to run for higher office. Second, he first won in 2005 by defeating a three-term Democratic incumbent, a victory that was viewed as a major upset and that suggests strong political skills and an ability to win over Democratic-leaning voters; after all, the political environment was already getting toxic for the GOP in 2005. Third, NH-01 is a swing district that voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and in 2004.

Earlier this week, a GOP-sponsored poll found Shea-Porter leading Guinta 43% to 34% - a good margin for the Democrat (especially in an internal Republican poll) but also a clear sign of vulnerability since she is under the 50% threshold.

On the other hand, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is regularly underestimated - and the GOP should be careful not to do so for the third cycle in a row. Sure, her past victories occurred in pro-Democratic cycles; but when combined with her unexpected win in the 2006 primary, they also suggest that Shea-Porter has strong campaign skills and that she can mobilize the Democratic grassroots. Now, she can take comfort in the fact that she represents a district that gave Barack Obama a clear majority.

Guinta’s move has consequences beyond the House race: While the Mayor was known to be eying a challenge to Shea-Porter, his name was also mentioned as a possible candidate in the state’s open Senate race. Today’s decision takes him off the list of potential statewide contenders, however, and leaves the GOP with an ever shrinking list.

It is interesting that Guinta is choosing to run against an incumbent representative rather than run for for an open Senate race. Is that more telling of the GOP’s low confidence that it can contest the Senate race, of its overconfidence that it can beat Shea-Porter or of Guinta’s insider knowledge that former Senator John Sununu is planning on running for Senate? Republicans better hope it is the latter. (Sununu is generally viewed as unlikely to run, but he now looks like he is trying to stay in the public eye, which somewhat contradicts the conventional wisdom.)