The AP had called Dan Malloy the winner of Connecticut’s gubernatorial race, but pulled back the call an hour ago. Its results now just Tom Foley leading by 8,500 votes with 99% of the vote reporting.
But something does not add up: The AP and CNN both show New Haven entirely reporting, and Malloy leads 7,441 to 1,579 votes. This is not plausible.
First, about 25000 voters cast a ballot in New Haven in the 2006 gubernatorial race; three times as much.
Second, the New Haven Independent reports that Dan Malloy won New Haven by 18,000 votes (22,298 to 3,685 [Corrected]). That would add up to about 25,000 - right about where we should be given the 2006 turnout level.
Third, CNN says Dick Blumenthal has won New Haven 22,154 to 3,271. So 26,000 votes were cast in the Senate race and 9,000 in the Governor’s race? More than implausible. The New Haven Independent’s numbers are most probably right.
This means that the AP’s supposedly complete New Haven count is probably underestimating Malloy’s lead by about 12,000 votes (corrected), which puts him in the lead statewide. With 40% of the vote in Democratic Bridgeport still to be counted, that makes Malloy a favorite to win.
Tom Foley is now moving ahead with his own claims to victory based on the AP’s latest count, so this error has the potential of creating a lot of chaos - not to mention impact the tone of litigation going forward. If anyone notices a glaring problem in my argument or something obvious I am missing, please let me know and I will gladly retract!