Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

The AP had called Dan Malloy the winner of Connecticut’s gubernatorial race, but pulled back the call an hour ago. Its results now just Tom Foley leading by 8,500 votes with 99% of the vote reporting.

But something does not add up: The AP and CNN both show New Haven entirely reporting, and Malloy leads 7,441 to 1,579 votes. This is not plausible.

First, about 25000 voters cast a ballot in New Haven in the 2006 gubernatorial race; three times as much.

Second, the New Haven Independent reports that Dan Malloy won New Haven by 18,000 votes (22,298 to 3,685 [Corrected]). That would add up to about 25,000 - right about where we should be given the 2006 turnout level.

Third, CNN says Dick Blumenthal has won New Haven 22,154 to 3,271. So 26,000 votes were cast in the Senate race and 9,000 in the Governor’s race? More than implausible. The New Haven Independent’s numbers are most probably right.

This means that the AP’s supposedly complete New Haven count is probably underestimating Malloy’s lead by about 12,000 votes (corrected), which puts him in the lead statewide. With 40% of the vote in Democratic Bridgeport still to be counted, that makes Malloy a favorite to win.

Tom Foley is now moving ahead with his own claims to victory based on the AP’s latest count, so this error has the potential of creating a lot of chaos - not to mention impact the tone of litigation going forward. If anyone notices a glaring problem in my argument or something obvious I am missing, please let me know and I will gladly retract!

20 Responses to “Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)”

  1. 1 Paul

    Your numbers in the parentheses are wrong.

    “Second, the New Haven Independent reports that Dan Malloy won New Haven by 18,000 votes (16,589 to 8,274).”

    The numbers in the parentheses should actually read “(22,298 to 3,685).”

  2. 2 phil

    do you know the numbers for the senate race in New Haven? You can verify whether the AP numbers are plausible based on Blumenthal/McMahon results in New Haven on Tuesday

  3. 3 Ron

    This also isnt counting Bridgeport, where there is still 40% of the vote outstanding and where Malloy leads by around 80%-20%.

  4. 4 ?

    Not snark, serious question, what do you mean by, “With 40% of the vote still remaining, that would in fact make him a slight favorite to hold on.”?

    40% of which vote still remaining? I’m very confused.

  5. 5 Paul

    AP numbers for the US Senate in New Haven:

    Blumenthal: 22,154 (86%)
    McMahon: 3,271 (13%)

    So yes, something definitely is up with the AP’s gov numbers.

  6. 6 mikeel

    Not the first AP screwup–se CO-Sen. Highly unlikely that there would be a 16,000 vote dropoff from the Senate race to the Governor race.

    Speaking of CT, is the outstanding Bridgeport vote why Hymes has been declared the winner, despite trailing by about 1000 votes?

  7. 7 phil

    Another thing, which is quite sad frankly: Where are the CT newspapers and tv stations? Don’t they have their own reporters to fact check the election results? Are they outsourcing basic in-state reporting to the AP? C’mon CT media. Do your own homework. Show some self pride.

  8. 8 Don

    I had noticed the same error with the AP New Haven count. I posted a comment on the hartford courant site after noticing that almost no news, blogs or twitters about the AP story tonight have even noticed this glaring error (also sent an email to local ct news station and AP). Amazing. I guess they layed off so many reports there really is very little reporting / fact checking these days.

  9. 9 Nathan

    Forget the AP. The Connecticut Secretary of State has published results by town in the gov/lt-gov race, showing Mallow leading 20,860 to 3685 in New Haven, but Foley ahead 556,787 to 525,980 overall! I still think something may be screwy, however. Their site lists two different races: one for “governor,” and this one, for “governor and lt. governor.” Why would these be different races? Making matters worse, when I try to load the “governor” race on their site, I get an error from something called the Crystal Report Viewer.

    Confusing web site. But it is the official source. It seems to me that candidate decisions such as declaring victory ought to be based on the official tally, not an AP story.

  10. 10 Kevin

    Nathan - You are missing the Working Families line (on the far right in the table), which would add another 21,137 to Malloy’s total, putting him at over 550,000.

    Also notice there are NO numbers in the row for Bridgeport, which will deliver a margin of thousands of more votes to Malloy.

  11. 11 Nathaniel

    The Secretary of State in CT has declared the election finished, with Malloy as the winner. Bloomberg, AP, UPI, Business Week, all major CT newspapers, NBC, CBS, and Fox….ALL have validated the same decision.

    Tom Foley is embarrassing the whole State of Connecticut. He should graciously concede and move on. It is truly a shame that he wasted $11 Million of his own money on a failed campaign. But, failure it was.

    Tom Foley is now looking like a sore loser. Foley is making a black eye for the whole State of Connecticut.

    Thoughtful voters, Democrats and Republicans alike, are urging Tom Foley to drop out, it’s over. Why he continues to squirm and gasp is unfathomable. Foley looks and acts desperate, like a lost soul.

    Even Tom Foley’s friends and neighbors have written blogs and letters to editors, urging Foley in public forums to concede.

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