Attorney General Beau Biden’s decision not to run for Senate left Delaware Democrats in a bind, with John Carney and Ted Kaufman soon adding to the party’s fear they would let Mike Castle coast to the Senate. Democrats immediately moved to plan D, New Castle County Chris Coons, and this time they were successful: Coons jumped in the Senate race yesterday.
I do not need to tell you Rep. Mike Castle is a formidable candidate. The presumptive Republican nominee was undeniably favored to pick-up this seat before Coons entered the race, and he remains the clear front-runner with Coons running. Since 1980, Castle has won 13 double-digit statewide victories, and the likeliest scenario for his match-up with Coons is that the number rises to 14. The most recent poll, released by Rasmussen, does show Castle crushing his opponent 56% to 27%.
The more interesting question is whether Coons has the potential to make the race competitive, and the answer is assuredly yes. For one, Coons is no random candidate: Since 2004, he has represented two-thirds of the state voters since New Castle is by far the state’s largest county.
Second, this is one Senate seat national Democrats are highly unlikely to give up, not only because Delaware is small enough that contesting it does not require that much money but also because this is Joe Biden’s former seat and the vice-president has already personally invested himself in keeping it in Democratic hands.
He asked Kaufman to reconsider, he urged Coons to run and for the past week he has been working zealously to convince the press that Castle is not a shoo-in. Not only did he insist yesterday that Coons would surprise us, but he reportedly personally lobbied electoral analyst Charlie Cook to change his rating from “Safe Republican” to a more competitive column! (Compare this to national Democrats relative indifference towards recruiting Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota and ensuring she is competitive.)
While Castle has never trembled in his three-decade career, when is the last time Democrats seriously sought to damage him? When is the last time he faced a barrage of attack ads? This is not to say his numbers will collapse as soon as the DSCC buys air time, but it is certainly worth keeping an eye on how Castle is impacted when Democrats finally try to appeal to Delaware voters’ typical partisan allegiance.
Third, the contrast between a 69-year old and a 47-year old could play to Coons’s favor, especially if the Democrat can appeal to voters’ desire to bring new faces to the elite. Coons could also run against Castle’s longtime tenure in Washington while touting his local office to prevent some of independent voters’ exodus towards the GOP. Relatedly, the Republican has been rumored to have health problems that were making him consider leaving politics altogether. Massachusetts showed what happens when a candidate lets herself be outworked; does Castle have what it takes to campaign full-time for months? If he chose to ran, the answer is presumably that he can invest himself enough to protect his lead, but this remains a question worth asking.
In short: Delaware’s seat clearly leans Republican, but it is not as far gone as North Dakota’s. At the very least, Democrats will do what it takes to put Coons in the position of scoring an upset.
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Democrats got more good news on the recruitment front from Wisconsin: former Governor Tommy Thompson has signed up as an adviser to Peak Ridge Capital Group venture capital fund, which certainly suggests he is not seriously considering running for Senate this year.
This of course does not make it impossible for Thompson to jump in sometime in the spring, but why would he be looking for new positions if he was entertaining the notion of an electoral comeback? In particular, why would he choose an activity that would open him to obvious Democratic attacks, since voters don’t think warmly of venture capital funds right now.
Interestingly, this same scenario (our leaning a Republican is leaning against running when he signs up for another job) has played out repeatedly this cycle, most notably for Rudy Giuliani but also for Jon Porter and Gordon Smith. All three of these Republicans later confirmed they would pass on 2010. Needless to say, it would be a huge break for Senate Democrats if Thompson chooses not to challenge Russ Feingold.
If Thompson doesn’t get in, which does appear to be the case, that’s a blow, but I think you overstate the importance of Coons entry into the race. I don’t think the D’s will spend a penny on him. He’ll have to do it all himself.
Yes, I know, Scott Brown essentially did that, but Brown was a Republican running in a Republican year against an untested politician. Coons will be a Democrat running in a Republican year against a VERY tested politician. I mean, if anybody is going to seriously suggest we would have beaten Ted Kennedy had he somehow been running for his own seat in January ‘10 that we would have won because people were “Anti-establishment,” tnen they are absolutely nuts. Kennedy would have won by 20pts minimum.
Given Coons long odds, I think it’s much more likely they’ll spend money trying to win New Hampshire, Missouri or Ohio or trying to save Pennsylvania, Nevada or Colorado.
That was the comment I posted almost a week ago:
“Re Delaware. Coons could beat Castle but it will be an upset almost equal to Mass Senate. And upsets happen once in a decade, not twice in the same election cycle.
1)Coons could paint Castle as an Washington insider while at the same time touting his outsider status. The political environment favors that kind of campaign.
2)Coons can run a vigorous and exciting campaign thus emphasizing the issue of Castle’s age, health problems and the fact that he hasn’t run a campaign for ages.
3)Coons can argue that a small state like Delaware would be better served by a young senator who can build seniority rather than a 71-year old minority-backbencher.
It’s an uphill battle but then again so was Brown’s. And Coons is going to be running in a Dem-leaning state.
Then again, who knows if the Biden family doesn’t try to undermine him for obvious reasons.”
I’m surprised to read that Biden is so personally invested given that the CW was/is that Castle will retire after four years and the Beau will waltz to the open seat.
“Then again, who knows if the Biden family doesn’t try to undermine him for obvious reasons . . .
I’m surprised to read that Biden is so personally invested given that the CW was/is that Castle will retire after four years and the Beau will waltz to the open seat.” — Panos
Please. Are you guys so blinded by partisanship that you don’t see the kabuki dance here? Biden Sr.’s effusive support for Coons is merely an effort to provide political cover for his son, who may have angered more than a few Delaware Dems by not running this year. (Interestingly, Biden Sr. said his son made his decision around Thanksgiving. Yet he did not announce until the end of January. Hmmm. Why do you think he waited so long?).
If Coons campaigns well and is polling close to Castle in October (unlikley but certainly possible), you can count on the Bidens and their political supporters to cut the legs from under Coons. No way will they allow Coons to take way Beau Biden’s future (2014) Senate seat. A Coons victory would upset the applecart and undermine the Biden legacy project.
That may sound cynical but I bet its spot on.
I don’t know if Castle will retire in four years when the seat is up again. He’ll be around 73 then, which isn’t necessarily that old for a senator, especially given the fact that Castle has had senate ambitions for a while.
Taniel,
Delaware may be a small state, but that does not mean that it is inexpensive to mount a race there. There are no VHF television stations in Delaware. Almost all of Delaware is part of the Philadelphia media market. Campaign ads will be extremely pricey and about 90% of the viewers will not be able to vote for your candidate.
Kewgardens - I can see your point about Biden Jr maybe wanting to waltz in in 2014. However I think he seriously pissed a lot of Dems both in DE and nationwide. So I wouldn`t be so sure he would waltz in. Remember well laid plans (like Hillary’s presidential aspirations, skipping 2004) can easily go awry.