Could the first week of 2010 have been any more charged with electorally momentous developments? Byron Dorgan, Chris Dodd, Bill Ritter and Henry Brown’s retirements, Jim Gerlach’s unretirement, John Cherry’s withdrawal and Richard Blumenthal’s candidacy conspired to dramatically alter the year’s landscape in a matter of days. Combined with the sudden competitiveness of MA special election and the buzz surrounding Harold Ford’s potential Senate run (his latest flip-flop is so grotesque it can only mean he’s seriously considering it: he matter-of-factly professed support for same-sex marriage just 3 years after voting for the FMA and placing his opposition to gay rights at the center of his Tennessee campaign), all of these developments left little time to cover lower-profile news.
Let’s start with Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon’s entry in Utah’s Governor race, as the Democrat gives his party as much of a chance as they could hope to score an upset in what is arguably the country’s most conservative state. Coroon won a second term in 2008 with 66% of the vote, so he is a well established presence in the state’s population center: Salt Lake County has more than one million inhabitants, so Corroon represents about 1/3rd of the state’s population! Sure, whoever wins the Republican nod (whether Governor Gary Herbert or a rival) will be favored, but keep an eye on Harold Dean’s first cousin.
Also in Utah, Rep. Jason Chaffetz had been mulling a primary challenge to Bob Bennett but opted to stick to the House instead; that doesn’t mean Bennett is safe, however. This week alone, the Club for Growth announced defeating Bennett would be one of its top 2010 priorities (they did not endorse a candidate yet) while Mike Lee, the son of a former U.S. Solicitor General under Reagan and of a former president of BYU, announced his candidacy.
Besides Chaffetz, two other congressmen Democrats were worried about clarified they’ll run for re-election: Rep. Earl Pomeroy and Rep. Leonard Boswell. While Boswell should face a competitive race nonetheless, open races in IA-03 and ND-AL would have been tricky holds for Democrats so this further limits the number of open seat opportunities the GOP can hope for. (DeFazio, Kanjorski, Skelton and Berry are probably those to keep an eye on.)
Another important story occurred in Arkansas: Just when you thought the GOP’s Senate field couldn’t possibly get more crowded entered a ninth candidate. Former state Senator Jim Holt, who lost the 2004 Senate race to Blanche Lincoln and the 2006 Lieutenant Governor race to Brian Halter, announced his candidacy. The NRSC would be better off with Baker or Coleman than with this staunch social conservative with a poor statewide record, but Holt’s name recognition and strong base in Northwest Arkansas gives a strong shot at winning the nomination. (Note, Arkansas primaries are decided by runoffs, so whoever wins would have to top 50%, but a 9-way first round should be unpredictable.)
Democrats are struggling to find contenders in Governor’s races in two Western states. In Nebraska, former Omaha Mayor Mike Boyle’s name had popped up at the end of 2008 as a likely candidate, but Boyle disappointed Democrats just as quickly as he gave them hope they could at least make a showing: He won’t run, and Governor Heineman remains unlikely to have to break a sweat. In Kansas, seemingly every week brings with it a setback to Democrats’ desperate search for anyone willing to run at the top of the ticket. The latest Democrat to rule out a race is Board of Regents Chair Jill Docking, and the party has now switched its focus to state Senator Marci Francisco.
Finally, two Democratic governors got primary challengers this week. The first is New York’s David Paterson, and I’m not talking about Andrew Cuomo, who is still coy about his plans: Suffolk County executive Steve Levy is the first out of the gate, though he has only formed an exploratory committee for now. In Maryland, the GOP is still waiting to see whether former Governor Bob Ehrlich will run but former state Delegate George W. Owings (a conservative Democrat) announced he would run against Governor O’Malley.
As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:
| Will retire | Rep. Henry Brown (R, SC-01) Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) Rep. George Radanovich (R, CA-19) Governor Bill Ritter (D-CO) |
| Will not retire | Rep. Leonard Boswell (D, IA-01) Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D, ND-AL) Rep. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-06) Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R, UT-03) |
Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:
| AR-Sen, GOP | former state Sen. Jim Holt is running |
| CT-Sen, Dem | Attorney General Richard Blumental announces run incumbent Chris Dodd retires |
| ND-Sen, Dem | incumbent Byron Dorgan retires former AG Heidi Heitkamp added to list Rep. Earl Pomeroy won’t run Ed Schultz added to list |
| NY-Sen, Dem | former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. added to list William Thompson ruled out run |
| NY-Sen, GOP | former Rep. Susan Molinari added |
| UT-Sen, GOP | Rep. Jason Chaffetz ruled out run Mike Lee announced run |
| WA-Sen, GOP | former football player Clint Didier announces run |
Third, updates to gubernatorial races:
| CO-Gov, Dem | Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper added incumbent Bill Ritter retired Speaker Andrew Romanoff added Interior Secretary Ken Salazar ruled out run |
| CT-Gov, Dem | former state Rep. Juan Figueroa added Simsbury Selectwoman Mary Glassman announced run |
| CT-Gov, GOP | Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton added to list state Rep. Larry Cafero won’t run Shelton Mayor Mark A. Lauretti added to list |
| KS-Gov, Dem | Board of Regents Chair Jill Docking won’t run state Sen. Marci Francisco added to list |
| MD-Gov, Dem | state Delegate George W. Owings announced run |
| ME-Gov, Dem | state Representative Dawn Hill won’t run Dept of Conservation Commissioner Patrick K. McGowan added |
| MI-Gov, Dem | Lieutenant Governor John Cherry drops out state Senator Hansen Clarke added to list state Speaker Dillon forms exploratory committee |
| MI-Gov, GOP | Domino’s Pizza CEO Dave Brandon won’t run |
| NE-Gov, Dem | former Omaha Mayor Mike Boyle won’t run |
| NY-Gov, Dem | Suffolk Co. exec. Steve Levy formed exploratory |
| PA-Gov, GOP | Rep. Jim Gerlach drops out |
| SD-Gov, GOP | state Senator Gordon Howie announced run |
| UT-Gov, Dem | Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon announced run |
MSNBC just reported that John Hoeven will run for Brian Dorgan’s Senate seat. No word yet as to when he will resign as Governor. Expected but news none the less.
Fritz, I just saw that indeed. Not a big surprise there: Most everyone has been covering the race with the expecting Hoeven will get in. Why do you expect him to resign, however? I can’t imagine he’d do so before he is elected to the Senate, at which time Lieutenant Governor Jack Dalrymple (a Republican who’s been elected on the same ticket as Hoeven) should take over, and will then be up for re-election in 2012.
^
Taniel: Your right of course. Just call it a brain cramp.
Taniel,
Do you have any insights into the New Orleans Mayoral race coming up? It’s not something I’ve seen covered on any of the blogs as of yet. The primary is on Feb 6, and the run-off is on March 6. I haven’t seen any actual polls, but from what I’ve read, Lt. Gov Mitch Landrieu is the leading candidate. There seems to be some thinking that this will be the first election of a white mayor there since his father held the seat. Mitch’s leading African-American opponent decided not to run last month. Do you think he has a shot? If he does win, according to the state constitution, Gov Jindal would name a replacement with a majority vote of the legislature, then because there is over a year left on the term that person would have to run to complete the term in the November elections this year, then run again for a full term next year (assuming he/she would want to keep the position). The GOP has not held the Lt Gov seat since 1988-1992, then prior to that was back in the 1870s. Given the reddening of the state, the new Lt Gov could be well positioned to follow Jindal after his second term in 2015, or challenge Mary Landrieu in 2014. Initially, I was thinking this would be a good way for Jindal to save Rep. Cao from a certain loss at re-election in November, but his vote for ObamaCare really hurt him among conservatives, so that may disqualify him. There are several Republicans running for Melancon’s seat, so maybe one of them?
TJ
I’m sure that the New Orleans race isn’t getting covered because its not really that major of a race: a Democrat will be the new mayor.
In terms of my thoughts, I would say that Mitch Landrieu has the lock for the mayor after his primary (African American) challanger dropped out, interesingly because he didnt’ wnat to have any racial stife in a city that has alot. I assume that either Mitch really wants to follow his father footsteps or the Lt. Governorships is pretty weak (probably both). So yeah I would say that he is overwhelingmly favored to be the first White mayor in nearly 20 years.
In terms of a Lt. Govenor, it would obviously be a Republican. I believe that Democrats still have a majority in one half of the state legislature, so they could block it but I think that scenario is very unlikely. I doubt that Jindal could really annoint the lt. Governor as his eventually sucesseor, because for one its a pretty long time, and two, the Lt. Govenorship is elected seperately from the Governor, and I’m sure in 2015 that other prominant statewide Republicans would also be interested in the govenor’s race. Going against Mary Landrieu the new lt. Govenor would have an easier time because fewer statewide officals would be willing to go after an icumbent senatnor, so that scenario is more likely to me.
On Cao, yes Jindal could appoint him Lt. Gov to “save” him but I highly doubt Jindal would pick him. I’m not sure how his vote for the health care bill would hurt him; he does represent a heavily Democratic, Black district. Plus there is a chance that Cao will vote agianst the final compromise bill if it doesn’t have abortition restricts the Stupark amendent had. I do think that Cao could be a very attractive and valuable politican for Louisana Republicans, but unfortantely I don’t think he is going to get alot of respect from then unless he is able to consistenly win reelection in his heavily Democratic district, which to me seems very unlikely.
Cao’s vote on the health care bill will help him in LA-02, but it probably will hurt him if he ever runs for a statewide office.
I’m wondering if Harry Reid might end up on this list soon. Check this poll out by Mason-Dixon (this is a good polling firm, btw). http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/jan_2010_1_polls.html. Reid is getting demolished by the Independent voters. A 70 year old man may prefer fishing in Florida instead of losing his seat.
Cicero, that’s certainly a damning poll; I actually wrote about it last night (here’s the post).
As for Louisiana, I’m sorry for not covering it TJ! I’ll have to do some research before saying anything intelligent about it though; my impression is indeed that Mitch Landrieu is heavily favored.
Jaxx,
Democrats control both houses in Louisiana. The House margin is literally the slimmest possible, but their Senate majority is large, and they can block anything they want to. That being said, it would have to be something that someone like Bayh wouldn’t vote for. An almost 3:2 majority is enough, especially where redistricting in concerned. That’s what really helps when it comes to AL, MS, AR, KY, WV and NC. Unfortunately, that doesn’t apply in the least to GA, TN or SC.
BTW, Taniel, didn’t the filing deadline just pass in MS?
Taniel, yes you did, but you didn’t dive into the Internals. The internals of this poll is especially “damning” to Reid.