Campaign Diaries

Two resignations

Neil Abercrombie and Robert Wexler both announced this winter that they would resign in the coming months, the former to run for Governor full-time and the latter to take a job at the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.

On Sunday, Wexler finally made his resignation effective so the House now has 434 members. Since the special election will not be held until April 13th, this means that Democrats will have one less seat in the upcoming health-care vote than they did back in November, when they pushed the bill through on a 219-212 roll call. While some Democrats who voted no are likely to support the final bill, many will not - and they could be joined by progressives angry at the compromises centrists Senators imposed. It’s very highly unlikely this will do anything to derail the bill, but it does mean Nancy Pelosi has slightly less room to maneuver; in particular, it means one less vulnerable Democrat can be allowed to vote ‘no.’

FL-17 is a heavily Democratic seat, so we were expecting a crowded primary. Yet, not only are state Senator Ted Deutch and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber the only candidates in the race but the former has snatched so many endorsements that he positioned himself as the clear front-runner with surprising ease. The primary is on February 2nd.

Also this week, Abercrombie tried to create some semblance of order in the bizarre chaos that is surrounding the organization of the HI-01 special election by announcing that he will resign effective February 28th. Hawaii law requires a vacancy to be filled within 70 days, which would mean that the chief election officer would have to call an election some time before May 11th. (A reminder: Hawaii has one-round special elections with no primary, which could give the GOP candidate an opening because there are two Democrats in the race.) But election officials have still not ruled out trying to circumvent the law because of financial problems; they’re also talking about proceeding with a mail-only voting system, but I have trouble believing that such a change in electoral procedures could be implemented over the course of just a few months.

Three potential retirements

While we might still get surprise retirement announcements, there are few congressmen left who have been signaling that they are looking into not running for re-election next year.

One congressman who remained conspicuously silent as the DCCC rounded up longtime Democrats to get them to announce they were running is Rep. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11). That obviously created some retirement buzz around him; after all, this 72-year old is facing tough rematch against Lou Barletta but will also have to get through a viable primary challenge. Yet, the fact that his spokesperson is publicizing the congressman’s new campaign-centric Twitter account suggests that Kanjorski is leaning towards seeking another term. (Note that Pennsylvania’s filing deadline is coming up in February, so Kanjorski would really have to make an announcement right around now if he was retiring.)

While there is room for debate as to which party would be help by a Kanjorski retirement, there is no doubt that it would be a major blow for the GOP if 79 year-old Rep. Bill Young were to not seek re-election in swing FL-10. While we haven’t heard much about Young in recent months, the buzz that he might be looking to call it quits is now picking-up: The St. Petersburg Times cites speculation that he will announce that he is retiring as early as at a luncheon on January 11th.

Finally, Rep. Peter King is aggressively promoting himself as a potential challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand. We’ll talk about the impact he could have on the Senate race if he gets in, but what’s clear is that the NRCC would rather not have to worry about an open seat in NY-03. While on paper the GOP should be slightly favored (Bush and McCain both won it by 5%), New York has been a disaster for Republicans over the past four years - and the streak continued with two 2009 special elections.

One attempt at a comeback

To the horror of environmental groups who targeted him like no other in 2006, former Rep. Richard Pombo’s name was floated in the hours that followed George Radanovich’s retirement announcement. (Pombo used to represent CA-11 rather than CA-19, but such district switches aren’t rare in California.) Less than a week later, the former congressman has officially entered the race, joining a state Senator and a former Club for Growth-protege to set up an explosive GOP primary that could still get more crowded.

While in the House, he rose to a position of power since he served as the chairman of the House Resources Committee from 2002 to 2006. His crusades to ease forest thinning and to rewrite the Endangered Species Act made him environmental groups’ main enemy in Congress, and his 2006 loss against Jerry McNerny was to a great extent due to the millions they poured against him. It looks like these same groups will do all they can to keep him out of the House, even if this time it means providing help to a Republican rather than to a Democrat. Said the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund spokesperson: “Anything to keep Pombo out of Congress. He is simply too much of a threat to meaningful, common sense conservation policy to do otherwise.”

Pombo has also been ensnared in extensive ethical issues, including connections to the Abramoff scandal and shady payments from his campaign PAC to family members, which contributed to his 2006 defeat. In short: If Pombo emerges as the GOP nominee, Democrats could very well have a stronger opening than they expected… provided, of course, they find a candidate of their own, which they haven’t done yet. Now that it looks Republicans might nominate Pombo, will the DCCC pay more attention to recruiting in this district?