For a few days, Democrats found themselves hoping they could still recapture AL-05 - which would not only be helpful on a political level, but also on a viscerally personal one: What better way to get back at a turncoat than to end his political career? Yet, their most obvious shot at contesting the district evaporated today: Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks ended days of speculation that he might challenge Parker Griffith by announcing he would stick to the Governor’s race instead.
The emergence of Sparks’s name as a potential House candidate was not just fruitful thinking on Democrats’ part. Not only had he himself declared he was considering the move, but it would have made perfect sense. Sparks is currently a double underdog in the Governor’s race: He faces an uphill climb to beating Rep. Artur Davis in the Democratic primary, and even if he does beat Davis Alabama is too red a state for Republicans not to be favored in the general election. If he had ran in AL-05, however, Sparks would have coasted to the Democratic nomination and arguably had a stronger shot in the general election: Not that the district is bluer than the state at large, but it has a long history of voting Democratic in non-presidential races. In fact, it has never voted for a Republican in a House race.
Spark’s exit from the House race does not mean Democrats are out of option. For one, Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker would make for a strong candidate; but the problem with this former state Auditor isn’t so much her electability but the fact that it would be very risky for her to run: She is up for re-election in 2010, so challenging Griffith would mean giving up a safe position for a tough race. Other names are also floating, but AL-05 is conservative enough that Democrats are unlikely to be competitive unless they nominate a top-tier contender who has already developed a long relationship with voters.
Of course, even if Democrats fail to contest the seat it won’t mean Griffith can expect an easy cycle, as his two Republican opponents are proving themselves determined to take him down. (Remember: Alabama has a runoff system so Griffith cannot benefit from his opponents’ divisions.) If we heard more about Mo Brooks over the past week, Lee Phillip ensured he would not be forgotten by sending a mailer to the district’s Republican households attacking Griffith’s ties to national Democratic leaders:
To make matters worse for Griffith, we are for the first time hearing that the NRCC did not commit to helping win the primary - at least that’s what GOP sources are telling Politico. It is somewhat incomprehensible that the congressman accepted to switch parties in such conditions: He must have known that it would not be easy for him to be accepted by local Republicans, so how could he not insist that his switch be accompanied by a financial commitment? Sure, he is no Arlen Specter but it still seems to be something the NRCC would have ended up accepting.
Another district in which Democrats are having recruiting difficulties is TX-10: I already wrote about the district last week, when Jack McDonald’s surprisingly dropped-out of the race. But the catch is that the filing deadline is this coming Monday, and Democrats now have absolutely no one seeking their party’s nomination. Sure, targeting Rep. Michael McCaul isn’t the DCCC’s priority but failing him to field any candidate would be a big setback: The incumbent looked surprisingly weak in 2008, so Democrats shouldn’t allow him to calmly build up his profile while running unopposed. It looks like 2008 nominee Larry Joe Doherty is taking a look at the race in the wake of McDonald’s withdrawal, but his supporters only have 5 days to convince him.
In fact, Democrats are facing a broader Texas problem: A SSP diarist shows that, while are all 12 Democratic incumbents have drawn opponents, only 9 of 20 Republicans are facing challengers! Running unopposed at the moment are: Ultra-conservative Rep. Gohmert (TX-10), Rep. Poe (TX-02), Rep. Johnson (TX-03), Rep. Hall (TX-04), Rep. Culberson (TX-07), Rep. Brady (TX-08), Rep. McCaul, Rep. Granger (TX-12) and Rep. Thornberry (TX-13). Like McCaul, Culberson had shown some signs of weakness in 2008.
Of course, Democrats have no chance of ever winning most of these 11 districts, but that does not mean that this discrepancy won’t have deleterious effects on the party’s performance up and down the ballot: The lack of Democratic challengers could negatively affect turnout since Bill White will be the only Democrat at the top of the ballot in more than a third of the state!
One district in which neither party is having any difficulty recruiting, meanwhile, is WA-03. Hotline On Call walks us through the latest developments in the race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird. As I wrote earlier this month, Democrats were already facing an ideologically clear choice between centrist state Rep. Deb Wallace and more mainstream state Senator Craig Pridemore. Another high-profile candidate has emerged: ex-state Rep. Denny Heck has not run for office since the 1980s, but he remained involved in political circles and could use his personal funds to finance his campaign. It’s unclear how he would position himself vis-a-vis Wallace and Pridemore. On the GOP side, I am surprised no elected official has emerged to challenge 31-year old state Rep. Jaime Herrerra (other state legislators’ names were being floated), but she is sure to face competition; conservative activists are perhaps looking for a candidate to rally around.
Gohmert is in the 1st district, not the 10th district. McCaul is in the 10th district.
I didn’t know Lee Philip was an African American. Considering that Alabama as well as lot of the deep southern states are still (unfortunately) racially polarized, I wonder if he would do worse than the typical Republican because of his race? At any rate Mo Brooks has a higher profile and is therefore more likely to emerge as Griffiths main challanger. It seems to me that Griffith likely HURT his chances of remaining in Congress: while he would have faced a tough general election as a Democrat, he would have had alot of Dem support, but the House Republican leadership is not committed to protecting him.
On Texas, the fact that many Texas Republicans are being unopposed is an testament to how effect the mid decade Delay engineered gerrymandering has greatly strengthed Republican power. The good thing is that despite Texas likely gaining 3 or 4 seats, at least 2 of them will likely have to be fairly safe Dem because of where all the growth is coming from. On TX-10, I guess that seeing the enviroment being weaker, no one wants to be a sacrficial lamb.
Jaxx,
It could be that Philip’s race would hurt him in the general election, but given that the district is 17% black (per Wikipedia), it might also help him, if some traditionally Democratic voters are drawn to his candidacy. It might be impossible to find out which way that cuts, since people with racist tendencies are unlikely to admit it to pollsters.
Nathan,
Forget any good will formt he African American vote toward Mr. Philip. Friends with deep roots in the distric tell me Mr. Philip is another Alan Keyes/Jesse Patterson type. Black folks will not vote for a guy like that. And I understand he is part of the Tea party movement. I guess if you are African American in Alabama, you have to be to the right of the lunatic fringe in order to get any traction.
I agree that Alan Keyes is too nutty and condescending to gain much sway with…well, about anyone. (I’m well right of center, and I was positively cringing, watching him debate Obama.) But there are some African Americans in the Tea Party movement, no? They’re not diametrically opposed groups, anyway.
Oh but they are have diametrically opposed goals. The Tea Party is committed to the defeat of the Obama administration and most African Americans are not. Surely you did not miss the racist signs and the Nazi symbology in those rallies? Sure there are African Americans in the Tea party movement. And there are gays and lesbians in the GOP, some birds don’t fly, and one mammal lays eggs! Exceptions to the rule. Remember Ken Blackwell in Ohio? How did that work for him?
Actually two living mammals lay eggs.
Oh yes!!! Two. I forgot that ugly looking ant eater. And belive me Les Philip looks even uglier when you take a good look at his possiton on almost every issue important to minorities in this country. Thanks for the correction Joe.
AL-05: I’m a member of this district and I think Griffith’s political career is over. We’re not about to elect a RINO. I also want to say that I appreciate Mo Brooks sticking only to issues, especially after the election we went through last year. He seems to be running on his record so far. Brooks’s record speaks for itself as does Griffith’s.
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