Campaign Diaries

With most of the week’s electoral attention focused on Massachusetts’ Senate race - the short version: Rep. Ed Markey and former Bush Chief of Staff Andrew Card are not running - it’s easy to miss two surprising developments that could shake up gubernatorial elections in the Southwest.

NV: Buckley exits race, boosting (Rory) Reid’s primary prospects

Jim Gibbons is arguably the country’s most unpopular governor, which makes Nevada’s Democratic nomination particularly valuable. All eyes were on Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, who has served in the legislature since 1994 and is the first woman to hold the Speaker position: Not only was she expected to run, but a recent Mason-Dixon poll showed that she would be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination.

Yet, Buckley announced yesterday that she would not run for Governor. She cited the impact a campaign would have on her family, particularly on her 10-year old son. While she opened the door to a future political run, it’s hard not to think that it will be hard for her to find as good a time as 2010: Not only is the GOP brand more tarnished in Nevada than in most other states, but Buckley is term-limited out of the legislature next year. There is speculation she might be appointed to a judgeship, however.

Buckley’s exit shakes up the race. The two other contenders who are most often mentioned are Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid, the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Goodman could be a formidable contender, but he is also considering running as an independent, which means that all-but-certain candidate Reid should now be considered the front-runner to win the Democratic nod. That could be troublesome for Democrats.

While any Democrat would be favored to win if they faced Gibbons, the governor is not likely to make it to the November ballot; the Democratic nominee will have to prepare for a highly competitive general election against the likes of Brian Sandoval or Joe Heck. Whatever Rory Reid’s campaign skills and electoral strength, the bottom line is that he is bound to be weighed down by his last name.

If he wins the nomination, father and son would both appear on next year’s general election ballot. The state’s 2010 Democratic ticket would become the Reid ticket. Such a blatant display of dynastic politics would create an uncomfortable situation for any candidate, but it should be particularly damaging to Rory considering Harry’s unpopularity. (It could also undermine the senator’s reelection prospects, though that’s less likely to be a factor since voters have a more defined opinion of him.)

AZ: Symington III hints at return

In September 1997, Arizona’s Republican Governor J. Fife Symington III was forced to resign after being convicted of bank fraud in a massive trial that shook up state politics. Within two years, his conviction had been overturned by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals because the trial judge had dismissed a juror who was leaning toward acquittal and he was pardoned by President Bill Clinton, who he saved from drowning during their college days.

Symington might now have a clean criminal record, but that does not make him the most obvious of Republican candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial race. Yet, Symington floated his name this week, when he told The Arizona Republic that he is “thinking seriously” about the race.

If he were to run, Symington would have to challenge an incumbent Governor: Jan Brewer replaced Janet Napolitano when Obama tapped the latter for his Cabinet. Brewer has won a statewide race on her own name before; that’s not something we can say of all Lieutenant Governors who suddenly become Governor (say, David Paterson) and certainly not of Senators who are suddenly appointed to vacant seats (say, Michael Bennet). Yet, weighed won by a weak approval rating and a grumbling GOP base, she is sure to face a competitive primary: Treasurer Dean Martin, former state Sen. Karen Johnson, Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas are all mulling the race; Rep. Jeffrey Flake could also run.

Symington’s entry would undoubtedly spice things up. Beyond adding a well-known name to the mix, it would inject in the race one of the 1990s most prominent political scandals. Could he ride his name recognition - and potentially the GOP base’s anger at his prosecution - to win the Republican nomination? How would that translate to the general election, where independent voters should be less forgiving of his involvement in an extortion and bank fraud scandal? Given the many options Republicans have, it’s hard to see how they don’t hurt their prospects if they nominate Symington.

Interestingly, the probable Democratic nominee is Symington’s first gubernatorial opponent. In 1990, former Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard narrowly lost the general election to Symington in a 52% to 48% runoff; four years later, he sought a rematch but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Having since been elected Attorney General, Goddard is preparing for a third gubernatorial run - one in which he could face Symington once more, twenty years after their first encounter.