While it’s hard to see what could save New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine from a certain defeat in November, one of his last remaining lifelines is the independent candidacy of Christopher Daggett, a former regional administrator for the EPA.
Polls released over the past few months had shown that Daggett’s supporters would gravitate towards Chris Christie if Daggett was not in the race, and today’s Quinnipiac poll confirms this: While Christie is ahead by a healthy 51-42 in a two-way race, his lead drops to 46-40 when Daggett is included. Daggett gets 7%.
The reason for this is not that Daggett is splitting the conservative vote. Long focused on environmental issues, Daggett has a centrist profile and was appointed to the EPA by former Republican Governor Kean, a moderate. So what is going on? Daggett is drawing the support of left-leaning independents - voters who supported Corzine in the past, voted Menendez in 2006 and Obama in 2008 but who this year want to oppose the deeply unpopular Corzine.
Winning over such voters is not just an added bonus for Republicans looking to win by a large margin; it is a must if they want to win at all. In New Jersey, Democrats far outnumber Republicans (44% to 28%, according to the 2008 exit poll) so Christie needs to win big among independents to offset the state’s partisan unbalance. Republicans are aware enough of this that they are now airing an environment-focused ad that is clearly targeting left-leaning independents. For now, they have been successful at courting these voters.
Yet, while Christie looks acceptable enough that these Corzine-hating voters will support him in a two-way race, they would surely like to avoid voting Republican. Thus, the presence of a third candidate gives independent voters disaffected with Democrats a place to go other than the GOP.
Quinnipiac’s poll confirms this: Christie gets his lead from a 64% to 29% advantage among independents, but that lead is cut to 55%-25% when Daggett is included - which explains why the Republican suddenly finds himself at 46%. The good news for Corzine is that Daggett is already drawing 13% among independents despite still being unknown: 92% of respondents (including 89% of independents) have no opinion of him.
Daggett is bound to increase his profile: He has qualified for state-matching funds and thus will also be allowed to appear in the debates that will oppose Christie and Corzine.
That will help him make the most of the corruption issue that has been plaguing the state: 93% of respondents tell Quinnipiac that this is a “serious problem” facing the state. “If what’s happened in New Jersey makes you as sick and angry as it has made me, please join our campaign and send a message to the Republicans and Democrats in Trenton,” Daggett said recently.
Given the poor history of independent candidates, it would surprise no one if Daggett fades into obscurity and finishes with a far smaller number than the 7% he received in the latest Quinnipiac poll. But not only is he set to appear in debates, but the circumstances of the race are bound to favor his bid: Obama-voting independents do not want to vote for Corzine but they are also reluctant to embrace the GOP.
As long as a substantial share of independent voters (25%+) go in Daggett’s camp, Corzine could win on the strength of the Democratic vote alone. After all, his numbers remain solid among his base constituency - Quinnipiac has him topping 80%.
I’m not sure how much Chris Daggett can help Corzine, but the fact that he will be participating in debates makes it more likely that he will get at least a decent amount. (Although on balance debates for anything other than the POTUS tend to get very little viewership, even accounting for the smaller amounts of people who are effected by said offices). If the indepdent vote splits about equally between the three candidates, then Corzine will definitly win. We really have to wait and see, Dagget isn’t at the point where he could play spoiler just yet.
Is he a declared Candidate?
Daggett is a candidate and a very viable one at that.
What this posts fails to point out is that Daggett is polling at 7% while “92% of respondents (including 89% of independents) have no opinion of him.” To say it another way almost everyone who has heard of this guy and knows enough about his message plans on voting for him.
You can learn more about Daggett on my blog at http://njelection.wordpress.com.
Alexander,
You are right to say that Daggett has a lot of room to grow - something I do point out in my post: Almost no one has an opinion of him yet he will appear at the fall debate - which is exactly why I said he could still pick-up a lot of support over the next 3 months.
Yet, nothing in the poll warrants the conclusion “almost everyone who has heard of this guy and knows enough about his message plans on voting for him.” For one, while 7% have an opinion of him - only 4% say that opinion is favorable. What’s happening is that a lot of independent voters who have never heard of him are saying they’ll vote for him when they hear he is an independent candidate: 7% of independents have a favorable view of Daggett but he gets 13% in that group.
And John, yes, he is certainly a declared candidate. He’s already qualified for the fall debates, as I said in the post.
As a Republican, I have never felt comfortable about this race. I started feeling better when Christie’s lead continued to grow (Corzine’s approval numbers kept sinking). Now I continue to be worried, NJ has a history of electing Democrats no matter how corrupt or ineffective they are.
Taniel,
Your response does not make sense. Your post clearly stated that “92% of respondents have no opinion of Daggett .” This is can be corroborated by many other reports on the same poll.
100 - 92 = 8% while Daggett is pulling 7%. Further more, the latest internal Democratic polls have him polling at 10%. Even in your response you state the 4% have a favorable opinion of Chris Daggett while 7% plan to vote for him. I understand you claim that “independents say they are going to vote for him just because their hear he is the independent” but that is nonsense. And here is why..
Daggett has an army of “sleeper” voters who are just outright disenchanted with the corrupt and greedy politics as usual that go on in NJ. We are fed up with corruption. Many disaffecting Democrats who do some research on Chris Chistie find that they are stuck in a south park episode… having to choose between a Giant Douche (Chris Christie) and a Turd Sandwich (John Corzine).
Just look at the Sierra Clubs recent endorsement of Daggett. Its about time a mainstream organization decided to pull their heads out of the clouds and endorse Chris Daggett!!
It just underscores the fact that we need to fight this mentality:
How ridiculous … I have a much better Idea
Let’s say no to the lesser of two evil politics that got us into this mess in the first place and vote for Daggett!!
Corzine has a track record that speaks for itself. And we are all disgusted by the corruption that has plagued our state under his watch. But what’s the only thing NJ voter’s despise more than corruption? Corruption and Hypocrisy and that’s what we find with Chris Christie.
Those of you who still believe in Christie as a crusader against corruption, don’t be surprised as more of his skeletons come out of the closet. You need only do a little due diligence for yourself, as I did after I decided that I was not going to vote for Corzine, to learn that Chris Christie is Corrupt.
Make a difference. Vote For DAGGETT!!! And tell a friend about it
In fact, I am going to go over to the Sierra Club’s website and find out information about donating to their organization.
Its inevitable that the voter’s will one day discover that only they have the power to change our government. The politicians sure aren’t going to do it. And this year is our chance, our opportunity to seize the moment and send a strong message that we will not sit around at idle while these corrupt goons destroy our lives and our children’s lives.
Alex, based on your response I’m not sure why what I said did not make sense: Your “8% superior to 7% so everyone who has heard of Daggett is voting for him” argument does not hold when you look at the fact that 4% of respondents have a favorable opinion and 3% have an unfavorable opinion of Daggett. I doubt these 3% are Daggett voters. The conclusion: Many voters who have not heard about Daggett are saying they will vote for him - and that’s especially true among independents where the gap between those who say they like Daggett and those who say they’ll vote for him is 6%.
In any case, this doesn’t in any way serve as an indictement of Daggett’s appeal; if anything, it suggests there is a real thirst for a third-party candidate in New Jersey. And nowhere did I argue that Daggett did not have room to grow - especially once he airs ads and appears in the fall debates.