Campaign Diaries

Two huge developments in one afternoon have shuffled Illinois’s political stage. First, Lisa Madigan announced that she would seek re-election rather than run for Governor or for Senate - a big surprise since the Attorney General would have been favored to win any seat on which she set her sights. Within hours, Politico and The Washington Post reported that Rep. Mark Kirk was telling Republican donors that he had decided to run for Senate.

This double shocker boosts the GOP’s prospects to capture Barack Obama’s former Senate seat, solidifies Pat Quinn’s hold on the governorship and sparks an open House race that should help cheer up concerned Democrats.

Madigan has long been known to harbor gubernatorial ambitions, and we all assumed that the only question was whether she would accept the White House’s pleas that she jump in the open Senate race rather than challenge incumbent Governor Pat Quinn. Polls suggested she was favored to win either race, especially the Senate contest in which she could have easily crushed rivals from both parties. So what happened? Why did Madigan settle for four more years as Attorney General?

The financial restrictions she would have faced had she ran for Senate made a congressional run an unappealing option - as did Alexi Giannoulias’s warning that he would not clear the field and her disinterest in moving to Washington. The gubernatorial election must have been tougher to rule out, but Madigan must have realized that challenging an untainted incumbent is never an easy task. Quinn might look beatable now but who knows how voters will perceive his leadership by next spring? She decided not to take the risk when, at only 43, she could wait four to eight more years before seeking the Governor’s Mansion?

As for Kirk, his decision is far easier to interpret. The moderate politician is arguably the only Republican capable of winning a statewide race in this staunchly Democratic state and he was receiving a ton of pressure from the NRSC to run for the Senate. While House Republicans probably urged him not to leave them hanging, Kirk just faced two very tough re-election races so it’s not like he’s giving up a safe position for a difficult run. The one obstacle to his Senate run was Madigan, whom Kirk most definitely did not want to face. Once the Attorney General ruled out her candidacy, Kirk made his move.

(The congressman was also said to be considering the gubernatorial run, where he probably could have mounted a stronger campaign since voters are more willing to buck their usual voting patterns in a local race than a federal one. But he ran in the inverse problem as Madigan: He had already raised $1 million for his re-election campaign, money that is transferable to a Senate run but not to a gubernatorial contest.)

Senate: The primary and the general election will be competitive

Once considered a minefield for Republicans, the 2010 Senate landscape is quickly improving for the NRSC. Democratic recruitment failures, changes to the political environment and unexpected opportunities for the GOP are conspiring to make the cycle seem more balanced. Now, it’s Illinois’s turn: Madigan’s exit and Kirk’s entry boosts the GOP’s prospects.

None of this is to say that Kirk is suddenly favored to succeed Roland Burris. Illinois remains a blue enough state that the winner of the Democratic primary (as long as it’s not Burris) will have an edge in the general election. But the fact of the matter is that Democrats will not be fielding a blockbuster candidate, their state state party is tainted by scandal and these are midterm elections that could be tough on Democrats. If the GOP is benefiting from any sort of wind nationally, Kirk’s moderate image could be enough to carry him across the finish line. (A recent poll found him tied with Giannoulias.)

As for the Democratic side, Madigan’s decision guarantees that the primary will be hotly contested since no candidate can claim a clear edge. Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle R. Jackson are already in the race, and Kennedy-family-member Chris Kennedy is expected to join them; we still don’t know what Burris is doing, but don’t rule out an upset victory if the field is that crowded. One thing to keep in mind: A divisive Democratic battle should have no impact on the general election. Illinois primaries are the first in the country (in February) so the eventual nominee will have plenty of time to recover and face Kirk.

IL-10: Dems will have a great shot at a Kerry district

What is great news for the NRSC is a nightmare for the NRCC: With Kirk’s retirement from the House, IL-10 joins LA-02 at the very top of the Democrats’ target list. One of only 6 districts won by John Kerry that are still in Republican hands, IL-10 went decisively for Obama (61% to 38%, though Kerry won by a more modest 6%) and it will be tough for the GOP to defend this open seat.

The GOP has enough of a bench to remain in the running (state Sen. Dan Duff, state Rep. Beth Coulson) but Democrats will have no problem fielding a top-tier candidate: State Sen. Susan Garrett and state Sen. Michael Bond were interested in running even if Kirk sought re-election; it’s also possible that Dan Seals will want the nomination for a third consecutive cycle.

Governor: Quinn goes from highly vulnerable to presumably safe

Ever since Quinn was elevated to the governorship, it looked more likely than not that Madigan would enter the race and end his tenure. As such, he must be elated by the Attorney General’s surprising announcement, which guarantees he will coast to the Democratic nomination. Kirk’s decision is the icing on the cake, as it also removes Quinn’s most threatening general election opponent.