Campaign Diaries

PA-06 was one of the DCCC’s biggest recruitment failures in the last cycle. In one of the most Democratic districts represented by a Republican, Rep. Jim Gerlach had barely survived the 2002, 2004 and 2006 cycles. Yet, no prominent Democrat emerged to take on the incumbent in 2008. Given Obama’s coattails, low-profile businessman Bob Roggio managed to come within 4% of Gerlach - imagine what a stronger contender could have done.

For now, Democrats have not been much more successful recruiting a strong candidate to run in 2010. But they finally got a contender this week: Douglas Pike, who served as an aide to Senator Tsongas in the 1980s before writing editorials for The Orlando Sentinel and serving on the editorial board of The Philadelphia Inquirer for 14 years. Examples based on a quick Nexis search: “We’ll lose if court rejects finance law,” a defense of campaign finance reform published in 03; or “Gephardt’s plan is irresponsible,” a 2002 piece in which Pike blasts the then-Democratic leader for proposing to combine increased spending with tax cuts:

Sure, some zealots insist that depriving government of tax revenue forces those rascals to cut their spending. That may work in Harrisburg, Pa., or Sacramento, Calif., but in the nation’s capital, where the debt is $6 trillion and rising, it’s a lie.

Pike’s background has surely made him familiar with a variety of issues that he will have to address on the campaign trail - and as such it can be an effective replacement for an elected official’s campaign experience. Yet, his years as a writing will also provide Republicans plenty of ammunition. There have to be at least a few controversial-seeming statements the GOP could unearth in all of articles that bear Pike’s byline. After all, all that is needed is a quote that can be taken out of context in a 30-second attack ad with ominous music.

On the other hand, it is debatable how successful Pike’s opponents would be if they were to use his past writings against him. In 2006, Republicans were ecstatic when Democrats nominated John Yarmuth to run against Kentucky’s Rep. Ann Northup, a perennial target. As a columnist, Yarmuth had a long trail of writings that the GOP sought to use against him. But Yarmuth ended up defeating Northup, who had survived against many top-tier Democrats in cycles past.

Sure, Yarmuth’s victory was primarily due to the blue wave that submerged the country. But other vulnerable Republican incumbents did survive that cycle and the point remains that Yarmuth’s columns did not end up damaging his credibility. That same year, Virginia’s Jim Webb found himself under attack for his novels’ graphic descriptions; the charges soon backfired and were ridiculed.

Some might say that Al Franken is a counter-example, as Minnesota Democrats’ Senate nominee found himself on the defensive last spring for an essay he wrote in Playboy years ago. Yet, his troubles partly stemmed from his own party’s failure to rally around him: As Republicans artfully launched the controversy before Franken had secured his party’s nomination, a number of prominent Democrats distanced themselves from the Senator and thus further fed the story - allowing Coleman to use clips of Democrats pounding in ads he released later.

Pike is also the son of a former nine-term U.S. representative; while that might explain why he is interested in politics, it is unlikely to provide him much ties to the current Democratic establishment since his father, who represented New York’s eastern Long Island rather than Pennsylvania, retired from Congress in 1978. More of an asset will be Pike’s wealth.

Pike has indicated that he plans to spend $1 million of his own money on the campaign - an obviously very consequential sum that guarantees that he remains a force to be reckoned with no matter which other Democrats jump in the race. Pike’s fortune, more than any other attribute, is likely to get the DCCC to take him seriously. After all, the national party and local committees are always looking for candidates who are rich enough to buy themselves a congressional seat (see Scott Murphy) - quite an unfortunate reality, especially considering that many politicians who come in office in such conditions, like Jon Corzine, are far from the most successful, qualified or popular of politicians.

One last note about PA-06: Gerlach might run for Governor in 2010. That would make PA-06 an open seat - and one of the Democrats’ top take-over opportunities in the country. If that happens, expect a large number of Democrats to consider running; otherwise, many might think it a better idea to wait until 2012, when redistricting could make the district even more inhospitable for Republicans.