Campaign Diaries

Kentucky Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo announced his Senate candidacy earlier this year; last week, Roll Call reported that Attorney General Jack Conway had also decided to run for the Democratic nomination. If that latter development is confirmed, the situation would be strangely parallel to the Ohio showdown between Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner: A Lieutenant Governor and another top statewide official are going head-to-head.

Such a scenario makes it very difficult to determine a favorite and to predict how the primary will unfold and who will gain the most establishment support. None of these four Democrats can mount an insurgent campaign. For one, they cannot credibly portray themselves as an outsider looking to shake things up; second, there is no clear ideological gap between Brunner and Fisher, Mongiardo and Conway.

As a result, most of them are likely to run a traditional campaign in which success is measured by the number of endorsements one has accumulated and the amount of money one has raised. Yet, all early signs suggest that none of these candidates is pulling away; instead, Ohio and Kentucky’s political establishment is starting to split.

In Kentucky, Governor Steve Beshear released a statement endorsing his Lieutenant Governor’s quest for the nomination. “Now, more than ever, we need strong representatives in Washington, D.C., to give voice to Kentucky priorities and values,” he wrote. “I believe that my lieutenant governor, Daniel Mongiardo, can be that voice.”

Sure, this endorsement is no shock since Mongiardo was picked to be Lieutenant Governor by Beshear himself. Nonetheless, it is newsworthy. For one, Beshear had no need to endorse so early in the game. Second, his statement will undoubtedly help Mongiardo claim front-runner status and it will boost his fundraising efforts. Third, Beshear’s move comes at a crucial time for the Lieutenant Governor, as it was starting to look like Kentucky’s Democratic officials were forming an (unexplained) alliance against Mongiardo!

Mongiardo served as the Democrats’ Senate nominee in 2004; in fact, he only lost by 2% against Jim Bunning. That experience has made him known nationally and explains why outside observers might think of Mongiardo as the natural choice to lead Democrats in 2010. Yet, we learned over the past few weeks that some of the most powerful Kentucky Democrats thought otherwise. Conway publicly declared that it was very unlikely Mongiardo would have the primary field to himself, and he added that he was in talks with Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler to determine which of the three would run against the Lieutenant Governor.

The implication was clear: Chandler, Luallen and Conway would be more than happy to have a member of their group win the nomination - they just don’t want Mongiardo to be their party’s candidate. (One potential explanation to this is that they might think Mongiardo has usurped his place: In 2004, he was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb but he came within 2% of the Senate thanks to Bunning’s gaffes and misstatements. That gave him enough stature to be picked as Beshear’s running-mate in 2007 - and to place him as an obvious Senate candidate in 2010. Does someone like Chandler resent the possibility of Mongiardo leap-frogging him to the Senate?)

In this context, news that Conway was close to jumped in led people to assume that Luallen and Chandler would endorse him as soon as he officially announced his candidacy. Such a succession of events would have served as a powerful rebuke to Mongiardo, but Beshear’s endorsement ensures that such a scenario will not unfold. It also signals that the state’s Democratic establishment is split. On one side, the Governor and Lieutenant Governor; on the other, the Atorney General, the Auditor and a powerful U.S. representative.

That should certainly make for an entertaining primary.

The situation is somewhat similar in Ohio. As I have explained before, it is hard to find much distance between Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, and their showdown is already looking like one of the most unpreditable contests of the cycle. Governor Ted Strickland wasted no time before picking sides, however: As soon as Fisher announced he would run, Strickland endorsed the man he had chosen as his running-mate back in 2006.

In the weeks following Strickland’s endorsement, pressure has build on Brunner to withdraw from the race. The prevailing sense among Democratic officials seems to be that the nomination is Fisher’s right and that Brunner should wait her turn; there is also the concern that Brunner not running for re-election in 2010 will endanger Democratic control of next decade’s redistricting process.

It was important for Brunner to demonstrate that she was more than an obstacle on natural nominee Fisher’s path - and she got some important good news late last week when the United Food and Commercial Workers endorsed her candidacy. Ohio Daily described the news as “the largest endorsement of the campaign for any candidate;” after all, Ohio is a state with an important labor presence, and unions can play a decisive role in Democratic primaries. Brunner also received the endorsement of a smaller, Cleveland-based union. (And in more minor news, Brunner was also backed by Caroline Kennedy!)

These developments are unlikely to be remembered as significant by the time 2010 comes around. But the timing makes them very valuable to Brunner. These endorsements relieve the pressure she is facing; they allow her to showcase that she has assets that will allow her to win the support of key Democratic constituencies; and, most importantly, they demonstrate that Strickland’s endorsement has not locked establishment support in Fisher’s favor and that Brunner can count on her own share of institutional support.

In any case, Brunner is showing no sign of backing off the campaign. In fact, she took her toughest shot yet at Lee Fisher last week. “Take one for the team? Even if the other guy can’t win?,” she asked. “I don’t think that makes sense.”

Thankfully for Democrats, these two primaries will be held in May 2010, which is relatively early and should leave enough time for the winners to turn around and prepare for a general election. By contrast, Missouri’s Republican nominee will have far less time to recover from primary bruises. (The primary is also held late in Florida, but it is unclear who stands to suffer the most since both parties have unsettled fields.)