Campaign Diaries

Rhode Island: Two bow out, Chaffee still mulling run

With Republican Governor Donald Carcieri term-limited out of office in one of the most liberal states in the country, Rhode Island is already the Democrats’ top gubernatorial pick-up opportunities. This week, the Democrats’ hold on the seat got even stronger and Republican bench got even thinner: former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, the GOP’s highest-profile potential contender, announced that he would not seek his party’s nomination.

On the one hand, Laffey’s ideological profile made it difficult to see him the general election in this blue a state: He is known as a conservative, especially by Rhode Island’s standards. In 2006, he challenged Senator Lincoln Chaffee in the Republican primary; he criticized Chaffee for his centrism, was backed by Club for Growth and only narrowly lost the contest, 53% to 47% (Chaffee went on to lose the general election).

On the other hand, voters are far more open to voting for someone of the opposite party in state-level races, and Laffey would at least have guaranteed Republicans a high profile candidate with the financial networks to stay on the airwaves and make the general election worth following. The GOP’s probable nominee is now state Rep. Joe Trillo, who will have a hard time remaining relevant against a crowd of Democrats, starting with Treasurer Frank Caprio, Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts, Attorney General Patrick Lynch.

Also this week, the Democratic field lost one of its most prominent candidates: Providence Mayor David Cicilline announced that he would not be seeking the Governor’s mansion but seek re-election instead. Cicilline stood a good chance of becoming the first openly gay Governor in the country, but we will have to wait longer for that to occur.

And the biggest wild card has yet to make up his mind about this race: Former Senator Linc Chaffee, who said last week that he is “very, very seriously” considering a gubernatorial run. Chaffee would run as an independent, which would ensure his place on the general election ballot but would also make for a difficult campaign: If Chaffee lost a two-way general election in 2006, would it not be more difficult to win a three-way race, facing a credible Democrats while bleeding votes from the right?

In this context, Laffey’s decision not to run might be a blessing for Chaffee as it opens the door to the possibility that the GOP does not nominate a credible candidate and that the former Senator manages to attract most Republican-leaning voters. This would put Chaffee in the position of Joe Lieberman in 2006: Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger only attracted 9.6%, allowing Lieberman to win re-election as an independent thanks GOP voters.

California: Whitman prepares for self-funding, speculation surrounds Feinstein

Republicans face tough odds in their bid to hold on to California’s governorship next year, but could they hold on to their seat with money? In an interview with Fortune, Meg Whitman hinted that she might spend as much as $50 million of her own money - a startling amount that would rank Whitman among those who try to buy their seat, the Michael Bloomberg, Jon Corzine and Mitt Romney’s of the worlds.

Whitman faces a highly competitive - and potentially bruising - primary against Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former state Rep. Tom Campbell. Whitman’s moderate profile could make her a better candidate in the general election of such a blue-leaning state, but it is also a clear liability in the GOP primary. Naturally, the ability to obliterate her rivals financially should be a tremendous boost to Whitman’s hopes of surviving the primary. After all, California is a very expansive state to campaign in.

More importantly, Whitman’s seemingly unlimited resources would be a huge asset in the general election: The Democratic field is filled with prominent candidates, and the nominee could emerge from the primary bruised and with depleted financial resources. For Whitman to have millions of dollars available at that moment would enable her to hammer her Democratic opponent when he is already down and has litlte ability to respond.

In other California news, the Los Angeles Times takes a look at the possibility that Senator Diane Feinstein jump in the gubernatorial race: Will she finally run, or will she once again take the safe route and remain in the Senate? The reporters opine that she will not jump in the race, arguing that (1) she has reached a prominent position in Congress, that (2) other Democrats would not be likely to step aside for her and that (3) Feinstein is too old to want such a dramatic change in her life. Those reasons all make sense; that said, Feinstein’s refusal to rule out a run could handicap Democrats who are already in the race as donors might be reluctant to take side until they know what Feinstein is planning to do.