Campaign Diaries

Over the past few weeks, we have had numerous opportunities to talk about Arlen Specter’s political future: Will his vote in favor the stimulus bill and Pat Toomey’s decision to jump in the Senate race doom his prospects of winning the Republican nomination? If so, what (if anything) can Specter do to win a sixth term?

One solution that some are suggesting is for him to leave the GOP - either switch parties and run as a Democrat, or become an independent and attempt to win the general election without the backing of either major party. But there is at least one path that is not available to Specter (and this is something I did not articulate in the Toomey-related post I wrote earlier this week): He cannot pull a Lieberman and run as an independent in the general election after losing the Republican nomination.

Unlike Connecticut, Pennsylvania has a sore-loser law that prevents someone who lost in a party primary from running as an independent in the general election.In short: For Specter to run as an independent requires him to jump ship before the filing deadline.

(Some question the constitutionality of sore-loser laws, but Specter is certainly in no position to challenge them in court. Even if he had the time to do so by next year, his efforts would enrage Republican voters and confirm that Specter has no intention of bowing to the results of the GOP primary. That would seal his doom.)

So would Specter be better served in abandoning the GOP before the Republican primary? I have repeatedly said that I find a full party switch unlikely. But what about becoming an independent in the months ahead, circumventing Toomey’s primary challenge and ensuring a place in the general election? If Lieberman managed to survive, why would Specter not be able to?

Whatever the odds of such a scenario, Specter would face two problems that Lieberman did not. First, Pennsylvania’s voters are more partisan than in Connecticut. In the 2008 election, 31% of Connecticut voters identified themselves as independents versus 18% of Pennsylvania voters.

Second, Connecticut’s 2006 Senate race was essentially a two-man race. There was no credible Republican candidate, which made Joe Lieberman into the de facto GOP candidate: 70% of Republicans voted for Lieberman! This helps explain how Lieberman managed to beat Lamont in the general election.

The same situation is highly unlikely to take place in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. Democrats are sure to field a credible candidate even if Specter is running as an independent, while Republicans would nominate Toomey or someone of his stature. Specter would thus find himself in a 3-way race, and he would have no obvious reservoir of votes (unlike Lieberman in 2006): Republicans would be furious at him, Democrats would have their own candidate to rally around and there aren’t enough independents to form anything resembling an electoral coalition.

These daunting prospects make it unlikely Specter would consider taking independent route. For a five term incumbent to suddenly find himself stripped of his party’s support and forced to mend for himself is a jarring thought: Even for a Senator as powerful as Specter, building a campaign infrastructure and raising money without the backing of a party structure is no easy task. If Specter realizes that he will not be able to beat Toomey in the Republican primary, he would be more likely to choose an early retirement than to battle his way through the intricacies of a solitary general election run.

Interestingly, Specter might be about to be thrown a lifeline from the unlikeliest of places: Peg Luksik, an anti-abortion activist who received a shocking 46% in her party’s 1990 gubernatorial primary (against the pro-choice establishment favorite) before receiving 12% and 10% in the 1994 and 1998 general elections as the Constitution Party candidate!

By herself, Luksik could conceivably beat Specter in the GOP primary; but for Toomey and her to run at the same time could be all Specter needs to squeak by yet again. It might be too much to ask of him to get 50% in the primary; but a plurality win is certainly not out of the question. And that is why he will delight at Luksik’s recent insistence that she is not affected by Toomey’s plans and that she is still looking at the Senate run.”What I’ve seen is somebody looking at poll numbers and that’s it,” she said of Toomey.