Barack Obama has offered the position of HHS Secretary to Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has reportedly accepted the position. This was expected: Ten days ago, The New York Times had already reported that the Administration was all but certain to tap Sebelius.
(That the appointment is now being confirmed is obviously a major story that deserves to be addressed today, but I did I write an entire post about what the pick would mean when the Times story came out so I used parts of that entry here.)
Sebelius picks makes Senate seat safe GOP hold, perhaps boosts Tiahrt
Sebelius was the only Democrat with any hope of picking-up Kansas’s Senate seat, left open by Sam Brownback’s retirement (a recent poll had Sebelius beating Rep. Moran and Rep. Tiahrt by double-digits). her move to the HHS Department all but guarantees that the seat remain in the GOP’s hands - and that most certainly offers indescribable relief to the NRSC.
The primary showdown between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt is now the de facto general election - and that could have major consequences on the primary’s dynamics. While they share a similar ideological profile, Tiahrt has the reputation of a movement conservative while Moran can be perceived as somewhat more mainstream. If Sebelius had been waiting in the general election, Moran could have benefited from looking more electable; but the Governor’s departure means that electability will not be a factor in the Moran-Tiahrt battle, allowing primary voters to choose whoever they feel closer to. That could prove a major boost for Tiahrt.
Finally: Many Democrats will surely be puzzled that Obama is willing to give up on his party’s shot at the seat; if anything, the past few weeks showed Obama the importance of enjoying a filibuster-proof majority. It is very possible that Sebelius had already decided not to run for Senate, and had informed Obama and the DSCC of her decision, allowing the President to pick her without having to worry about midterm repercussions.
A new Governor
Sebelius’s move to Washington also means that Kansas will have a new Governor: Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who ran as Sebelius’s running mate in 2006. But Parkinson was in the GOP until the spring of 2006, and he held many elected offices as a Republican from the early 90s onwards; he was also the chairman of the state Republican Party! So while Kansas will technically remain in Democratic hands, state governance could move to the right.
This might have consequences in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Sebelius is term-limited out of office in 2010 anyway, so her departure to Washington does not deprive Democrats of her candidacy. Yet, Parkinson’s elevation means that the state now has an incumbent who is allowed to run for re-election, and that could help Democrats keep the governorship. Fortunately for the GOP, it looks like the race will still be an open: Parkinson declared in early January that he would not run for any office next year. Might he change his mind now that he will get used to serving as Governor and would be able to run as the incumbent? And could he win the Democratic primary given that he was the Kansas GOP’s chairman just a few years ago?
A centrist liberals can stand
Sebelius’s nomination would increase the ranks of Cabinet centrists, but it would also come as a relief to progressives, who had come to expect the worse. For starters, Sebelius is a Democrat (which is significant, given some of the Administration’s other appointments…), and she is far less conservative a pick than Phil Bredesen, the health care coverage-cutting Tennessee Governor with deep ties to the insurance industry who looked looked like one of the front-runners for the position.
Sebelius’s ability to awake little passion (for or against her) has always puzzled me, but that is probably what Obama is looking in an HHS Secretary: A wonky, reassuring-looking politician who will ignite as little partisan fire as possible from either side. Indeed, Sebelius has little partisan edge - something that generally frustrates liberals - but she has managed not to develop the reputation of a conservative Democrat. This remarkable equilibrium mirrors Obama’s own ideological positioning, especially when it comes to health care (as we saw in the primary as well as the general election): A centrist, but a non-militant one.
Health care will obviously be one of the biggest issues of Obama’s presidencies, which means that Sebelius could emerge as one of the Administration’s most important players. This could prove perilous, but it is also sure to immensely rewarding - both professionally and personally. (Getting credit for finally realizing some version of health care reform could position Sebelius for bigger things in the years ahead.) And as we learned this week that Obama plans to start pushing for health care reform this year, Sebelius will have to get to work immediately.
Update: The Kansas City Star asks a very good question:
Who will [Parkinson] pick as his lieutenant governor now that he’ll be vacating that position? Why is that significant? Because it’s the Democrats’ last chance to come up with a candidate for governor or the U.S. Senate in 2010.
I think this is a good move. Taniel and other commentators excessively worry about the Kansas senate seat - there was no guarantee (probably at best a 50:50 chance) of winning the seat. There are plenty of better possibilities including NH, MO, OH, KY, FL, NC and PA which would get the Dems to 60 (or well over).
There is plenty of benefit NOW to having her instead of hoping in two years you get another senate seat - she will be reassuring, pragmatic and a good salesperson for healthcare reform. Remember healthcare reform is a top priority for rank and file Democrats and I am sure most would willing give up the chance of a senate seat for long term healthcare reform.
Actually there is talk over pro-life advocates trying to make a fuss, because she has some connections with a doctor in Kansas who has been accused of doing late term abortions.. althrough I suspect the GOP will let her in with no fuss so she doesn’t try to run the KS senate seat instead.
While I’m disappointed that she won’t be running against Moran or Tiahrt (both of whom I strongly dislike), I think that she’ll be good at the head of HHS. I just hope now that the Dems can hold on the governor’s mansion.
Indeed, it’s frustrating that Obama has taken away the only possibility for the Democrats to take the Kansas seat.
But on the other hand, if Sebelius (or Napolitano before her) REALLY wanted to run for it, don’t you think that she would say no to Obama’s proposal?
Panos - she would have said no if she wanted to run. Plus even if she wanted to run there is no guarantee at all that she would become the senator from Kansas in 2010. SO I would rather take an effective advocate for healthcare reform who has managerial capabilities over a possible senate seat the Dems probably really don`t need. They should get to 62-63 next year plus the two women from Maine. That gets you pretty much filibuster proof.
Probably a wise decision by all involved given the unfortunate circumstances surrounding Daschle. Sebelius would have had a tough fight win the KS Senate seat, I agree that her odds would have been around 50%. If she won, she would have had to cast a lot of tough votes where the priorities of President Obama who she endorsed and admires strongly conflicted with the large majority of voters in Kansas. Obama’s electoral performance against McCain in the state was not pretty.