Ohio Democrats are being uncharacteristically blunt about their Senate preferences. It is certainly not rare for the establishment to pressure a politician into not running, but the message Governor Ted Strickland sent to Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner was surprisingly explicit.
“My commitment is to [Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher] first. I believe Lee would be the strongest candidate if he were to choose to run,” Strickland told The Cleveland Plain Dealer. “I don’t say that to disparage Jennifer. She would be a very strong and credible candidate.” He later added, “I would be very happy if he chose to stay. But I would in no way want to interfere with anything that he deeply desired or felt was in his best interest.”
In other words: If Brunner chose to run in the Democratic primary, she should not expect the Governor (and, by extension, the state’s Democratic establishment) to remain neutral. This is obviously a particularly brutal way to convince Brunner to stay put at the Secretary of State office and run for re-election in 2010.
Of course, neither Fisher nor Brunner have declared their candidacy; nor have they signaled that they are about to do so. And there is a third high-profile Democrat who is considering a race, Rep. Tim Ryan. It might be harder for Strickland to put pressure on him since Ryan works in the federal government - but there is no question that the prospect of having the powerful Governor endorse a rival could be enough to keep Ryan out of the Senate race.
Why are Democrats maneuvering so openly to keep Brunner out of the race? One reason might be that they want to avoid a contested primary (especially as Republicans have all but anointed their candidate, former Rep. Rob Portman) and the nomination is first Fisher’s to refuse. It is plausible that many Democrats feel this, but it is doubtful they would phrase it this explicitly.
The most likely explanation has to do with redistricting. Ohio has a five-member Apportionment Board that controls the redrawing of district boundaries (both federal districts or those of the state legislature). This redrawing will happen after the 2010 census, and it will be very important for the state’s power of balance over the next decade. Ohio Democrats are still complaining about the redistricting that Republicans undertook at the beginning of this decade and they believe they can strengthen their hold on the Buckeye State if they manage to control the process in 2011-2012.
Democrats currently have a 3-2 edge on this board, but what matters is having majority after the 2010 election, when redistricting will happen. Whether they retain an edge then will depend on whether they can hold on to the Governor’s Mansion and to the Secretary of State office. In other words, Ohio Democrats want Brunner to run for re-election because it would be much easier for Republicans to pick-up the SoS seat if it is an open race.
Similar considerations will play out in other states.
Besides Ohio, Florida is a great example of a state in which redistricting considerations will influence the 2010 cycle. Republicans have long controlled the process in the state and that has allowed them to build large majorities in the state legislature and in the congressional delegation (the GOP holds 15 of 25 House seats). For Democrats to have a say in redistricting could allow them to dramatically improve the redrawing of the state districts.
Yet, Republicans have large majorities in both chambers of the legislature and Governor Charlie Crist is so popular that Democrats have little to no hope of unseating him in the 2010 election. The only way for Democrats to gain a seat at the redistricting table is for Charlie Crist to give up running for re-election, jump in the Senate race instead and leave the Governor’s Mansion wide open for the taking.
Sure, for Crist to run for Senate would all but ensure that Republicans hold on to a vulnerable seat; but it would also give Democrats a priceless opportunity to come back to power in Tallhassee and influence the next round of redistricting in such a way that the GOP would spend a decade regretting Crist’s departure.
These concerns have to be weighing heavily on Crist’s mind. As much as the NRSC is pressuring the Governor to run for Senate, many in the state’s Republican establishment are undoubtedly reminding Crist that he is needed in Tallhassee.
If Crist jumps in the Senate race (which i believe he will, having a long history of only staying in one position long enough to get to the next) CFO Alex Sink will jump in the Governor’s race in a heartbeat, she passed on the Senate race to run for Governor in ‘14. She would clear the field of Democrats and be the frontrunner having been elected statewide, even winning in many rural and more conservative areas (being from North Carolina helps), it will depend on who her opponent is, but she would likely become the first female governor of Florida.
I didn`t know Alex Sink was from North Carolina, no wonder she is an impressive person!
I like Jennifer Brunner and would be happy for her to be in the senate but if she can help ensure a reasonable redistricting then she should stay as SoS.