Campaign Diaries

Throughout December, politicians across the country promised they would use the holiday period to reflect on their electoral plans and come to some decisions. It is no surprise, then, that the first few days of 2009 are so rich in retirement and recruitment drama. In fact, there should be plenty more in the weeks ahead and the rumor mill is working full time.

Ohio, and Voinovich’s retirement:

Kit Bond’s somewhat unexpected retirement announcement has made Republicans paranoid that other Senators are looking to follow suit, and it did not take long for articles to pop up about Ohio’s George Voinovich, who is in his 70s. Today, The Columbus Dispatch and Political Machine are both reporting that he is very seriously looking at the possibility of retirement; the latter story hints that Voinovich might be coming out with an announcement as early as next week.

Both parties have candidates waiting in the wings (see my Senate page for more background), and an open race would be hotly contested by both parties. But there is no question that a Voinovich exit would be horrendous news for the GOP at a time they already have a lot to deal with.

Florida, and Sink’s candidacy:

Former Governor Jeb Bush’s decision not to run for Florida’s open Senate race has freed up other Republicans who are now considering a bid; but Democrats are still waiting for their towering figure, state CFO Alex Sink. The latest speculation was sparked by an interview Sink gave to St. Petersburg Times. She notes that “open seats like this don’t come around very often” and describes herself as “very strongly considering” running. It would be hard to blame the DSCC if they got excited by such comments, and it does sound like Sink is leaning towards a run.

Missouri, and the GOP nomination:

Barely 24 hours have passed since Kit Bond’s announcement that he will not seek re-election, but there have been plenty of maneuvering among Missouri Republicans. Politico reports that former Senator Jim Talent was likely to jump in the race; and Rep. Roy Blunt also looks like a probable candidate now that his son (outgoing Governor Matt Blunt) touted his father’s prospects. And former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman told The St. Louis Dispatch that she was “thinking about it.”

As I suggested yesterday, it looks like the GOP will not be able to avoid a divisive, crowded (and thus unpredictable) primary. To make matters worse, Republicans are already taking shots at each other, with Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder criticizing Steelman’s words on Bond. That confirms that Steelman’s candidacy could make this a particularly bruising primary, since it could lead to a replay of the alliances of the 2008 gubernatorial contest that left nominee Kenny Hulshof to weak to run an effective campaign.

An open seat in Texas?

Rep. Michael McCaul is considering a run for state Attorney General, a position that is now occupied by a man who is rumored to be eying Texas’s Lieutenant Governorship. McCaul’s move would open TX-10, a staunchly conservative district that gave George Bush 62% of the vote in 2004 but that has been rapidly trending leftward due to a rising Hispanic population. In fact, McCaul’s re-election race became unexpectedly competitive in the final weeks of the 2008 cycle. But the DCCC never invested in the district, and McCaul survived by 11%. In other words, Republicans would be favored to hold on to an open House seat, but Democrats would have a shot at scoring an upset.