Campaign Diaries

2008 was filled with upsets, from Mike Huckabee’s Iowa triumph to the Democrats’ special election victories in the spring and to Obama’s general election victory in Indiana.

Yet, we had come to expect all of these events by the time they unfolded. Huckabee’s victory was an upset by the standards of the preceding six months and of the millions Mitt Romney spent in Iowa, but he started climbing in the polls early enough for us not to be stunned on January 3rd.

Here’s a list of the top ten shockers of the years, those events that no one saw coming, those that were so stunning that they left us shell-shocked!

1. Clinton wins the New Hampshire primary

Hillary Clinton ran well ahead in New Hampshire polls throughout the fall of 2007, but Barack Obama’s victory in Iowa unraveled Clinton’s campaign. Her New Hampshire numbers collapsed overnight, Obama’s rallies attracted huge adoring crowds, and the January 5th debate left Hillary on the defensive. By Election Day, Clintonites were preparing to be trounced in the Granite State and speculation was flying that her camp was considering an immediate withdrawal.

The rest, as they say, is history. Clinton won a stunning victory that prolonged the Democratic primaries by five months and left the Obama campaign searching for answers

In retrospect, Hillary’s comeback should not have been that much of a shocker. Bounces are intrinsically volatile, and the question was never whether Obama could make that bounce permanent but whether his surge would last long enough to carry him through the finish line. And there were only five days between Iowa and New Hampshire, such a compressed period that the electorate was bound to shift in much higher proportions than in a typical election. Most polls that showed Obama leading by double-digits were taken over the week-end, in the immediate aftermath of Iowa, and there is simply no way that any poll in the field at the height of Obama’s buzz could have picked up Clinton’s comeback. (Other factors that fueled Hillary’s victory were her gains among women and the last-minute decision of many independents to vote for McCain in the GOP primary.)

But all of these attempts to rationalize the results will never erase just how shocked we all were to see Hillary Clinton victorious just hours after staring political death in the face .

2. McCain picks Sarah Palin

Her name was mentioned in the Republican veepstakes, including by Campaign Diaries. But did anyone really expect John McCain to pick Sarah Palin as his running-mate? This bombshell dropped just hours after the end of the Democratic convention, leaving absolutely everyone scrambling to find information about the little-known Governor of a little-known state.

Within hours, we were treated to a flurry of revelations, the most high-profile of which would surely earn a spot on this list if I was willing to consider them separately. Who could have expected on the morning of August 29th that within six days Republican delegates would be cheering a former member of the Alaska Independence Party, a pregnant teenager and her high school fiancé?

What is most fascinating about the Palin pick is that it left Republicans (and many of McCain’s top surrogates) just as stunned as the rest of us! As the press broke stories, the McCain campaign looked completely unprepared to deal with issues it had clearly never heard of - which was quite painful to watch given that modern political campaigns are supposed to control everything down to the smallest detail. In fact, subsequent reports revealed that Palin’s name had emerged as a serious contender in the final days before McCain was set to announce his choice, leaving too short time for the vetting process. (For a larger discussion about the effect Palin had on the general election, check here.)

3. Eliot Spitzer is forced to resign

A headline popped up on The New York Times’s website on March 10. Within two days, Governor Eliot Spitzer had resigned, completing one of the quickest downfalls in political history.

After easily taking-over New York’s governorship in 2006, Eliot Spitzer looked set to become a major player in Democratic politics. He did suffer through a rough first year in Albany, but nothing that looked serious enough to durably damage his national ambitions. His days as Attorney General had earned him a reputation as a superactive crusader who prosecuted white-collar criminals with zeal, and not a single rumor had circulated about his (possibly criminal) ties to an elite prostitution ring until the NYT dropped the bombshell on an otherwise quite Monday afternoon.

That Spitzer was also known for prosecuting prostitution rings certainly increased our shock - not to mention how hypocritical it made him look. And the speed in which the state legislature started talking of impeachment and in which Spitzer accepted to resign was also breathtaking.

4. McCain withdraws from Michigan

In the afternoon of October 2nd, everyone’s attention was focused on the upcoming vice-presidential debate when Politico reported the stunning news that the McCain campaign was pulling the plug on Michigan - no more TV ads, no more mailers and the entire staff relocated to other states.

The Wolverine State and its culturally conservative, racially sensitive electorate had long looked like Obama’s biggest vulnerability, but the campaign’s sudden turn to economic issues dramatically undercut McCain’s support among blue-collar voters. Even so, the GOP had already bet so much on Michigan that no one had seen McCain’s withdrawal coming - starting with the GOP’s state officials who publicly expressed their anger. Even Sarah Palin revealed that she had been unaware of the campaign’s Michigan plans in what was one of her most bizarre interviews.

5. McCain suspends his campaign

By the end of September, McCain’s gains in the first half of the month had been erased and the Arizona Senator had once again fallen behind. And with the Wall Street meltdown shifting the conversation to the economy, he had lost the control of the narrative - something no trailing candidate can afford to do. With his back against the wall, McCain knew he had to take huge gamble.

And just as he had at the end of August, McCain delivered. On September 24th, he announced that he would suspend his campaign and seek a delay in the first presidential debate in order to focus on the financial crisis, immediately setting off cries of astonishment in already over-politicized office buildings and college campuses across America! McCain’s dramatic move certainly shook-up the race; unfortunately for Republicans, it massively backfired on the Arizona Senator who emerged looking erratic and indecisive.

6. Stevens is indicted

We had known for months that Ted Stevens was under investigation for money he had allegedly received in exchange for legislative favors, and his July 29th indictement was the logical continuation of a process that had started a long time ago. Yet, for any sitting Senator to be indicted is so rare as to be truly shocking news, especially when the indictment drops four months before said Senator is up for re-election!

Stevens’s indictement was yet another headache for Senate Republicans to deal with, as it seemed to practically ensure they lost the seat and got Democrats one step closer to a 60-seat majority. (As the next few months showed us, Stevens would have probably survived the November vote had he not insisted on an expedited trial that found him guilty.)

7. Ann Cao defeats Rep. Jefferson in New Orleans

Yes, Rep. William Jefferson was indicted on corruption charges and had been stripped of his committee assignments - but LA-02 is a heavily African-American district that is more Democratic than any red district is Republican! And even if the stars were aligned for an upset in New Orleans’ December 6th vote (the off-date election day caused a dramatic drop in black turnout), such districts simply never elect a Republican and practically no one thought that Ann Joseph Cao could prove an exception to that rule.

Yet, New Orleans residents had apparently had enough of their representative’s corruption and Cao defeated Jefferson by 3% in what should be described as one of the biggest upsets of the decade. An ecstatic John Boehner soon proclaimed, “The future is Cao.”

8. Rod Blagojevich is arrested

We long knew that Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich had legal problems, and we had even learned that the FBI was wiretapping some of his private conversations - and this is prior sense that something smelled fishy in Springfield is the reason this scandal is ranked so much lower than Eliot Spitzer’s.

But nothing prepared us for the December 9th news that Blagojevich had been taken into custody by FBI agents on corruption charges, nor for the shocking allegation that he had attempted to sell the Senate seat left vacant by Obama. What made the day so surreal was the quasi-insane scope of Blagojevich’s schemes: The prosecutor’s complaint document alleged a plot to shake down Warren Buffet, extort money from Bill Gates, cut a deal with a labor union, and even prepare a presidential run in 2016!

And the charges surrounding Obama’s Senate seat are just the tip of the iceberg! Blagojevich faces numerous other accusations, for example of having announced an $1.8 billion plan to construct new highways in exchange for a highway contractor’s pledge to raise half-a-million dollars for his upcoming campaign.

9. Obama is ahead in AK/IN/MT/NC/ND for the first time

By November 4th, Indiana, North Carolina and Montana had undoubtedly become toss-ups in the presidential election and it no longer seemed wild to predict an upset in North Dakota. Yet, all of these states used to be staunchly Republican states (Bush won Indiana by 21% in 2004, for instance) and a Democratic victory would have been unthinkable at the start of the cycle.

It took a long time for us to get used to thinking of any of these states as competitive, and it is doubtful whether anyone really believed Obama could pull any of them off until the first poll from each state that showed Obama in the lead. Every single one of those surveys was so shocking that they single-handedly upended every assumption we ever had about that state! Here’s a rundown:

• On June 24th, a SUSA poll showed Obama ahead in Indiana by 1%. I wrote: “Today’s shocker comes in the form of a SUSA poll from Indiana — not the first state you think of when you wonder where the next exciting presidential poll will come from.”
• On July 3rd, a Rasmussen poll had Obama ahead by 5% in Montana. I wrote: “This is obviously a stunner: Montana went for Bush by 20% in 2004, and even though the state’s Governor and two Senators are now Democrats, Montana is still considered a staunchly red state.”
• On August 12th, Obama led his first Alaska poll, 45% to 40%. I wrote: “Today’s polling delivery does contain a surprise: The first Alaska poll to find Obama ahead (for that matter, this is probably the first Alaska presidential poll in quite a while to find any Democrat ahead)!”
• On September 4th, a DFM Research poll found Obama leading by 3% in North Dakota. I wrote: “Seeing a Democratic presidential candidate leading by any margin here is truly remarkable.”
• Finally, on September 25th, I devoted an entire post to a Rasmussen poll fro North Carolina with Obama leading 49% to 47%: “Today, the world as we know it changed in yet another red state: Obama has his first lead in North Carolina.”

Obama only won two of these five states, and by tiny margins. But these states proved extremely consequential, forcing Republicans to invest resources in North Carolina and Indiana at the expense of states like Colorado and Minnesota.

10. McCain’s rivals give him a free pass throughout January

This item might seem minor in comparison to the other stunners of this list, but the reluctance of McCain’s rivals to attack him throughout January remains for me the most incomprehensible event of the entire year!

The Arizona Senator was far behind throughout the fall of 2007, but he had emerged as a top contender by the first days of 2008. His New Hampshire victory left him as the man to beat; one more win looked like it would be enough for McCain to close the deal (which is exactly what happened).

Given that situation, I am still at a loss to explain why McCain’s rivals failed to challenge McCain throughout the South Carolina campaign - starting with the January 10th debate which left the Arizona Senator entirely unscathed. In my write-up of that debate, I asked, “Do Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee want John McCain to be the GOP nominee?”

As puzzling was Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson’s decision to not attack McCain from the Right in South Carolina despite the fact that a loss for either men was tantamount to the end of their presidential ambitions. Unlike 2000, then, no one arose to point out McCain’s apostasy on issues dear to social conservatives and McCain prevailed by 3%. A few days later, it was Rudy Giuliani’s turn to do the same in Florida, where he mysteriously gave up on an opportunity to capitalize on a rare major policy disagreement - McCain’s opposition to a national catastrophic fund, which Giuliani favors.

In fact, Huckabee spent more time praising the Arizona Senator than criticizing him. As Romney and McCain were engaged in some harsh rhetoric over the former’s alleged support of a withdrawal timetable, Huckabee rushed to McCain’s rescue.

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Honorable mentions go to McCain’s unexpectedly flashy first celebrity ad featuring Britney Spears; to John Edwards’s unexpectedly early withdrawal a week before Super Tuesday; to Don Young’s November 4th survival; to McCain’s thoughtless mid-September decision to once again state that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong;” and to the dramatic September 7th Gallup poll that found McCain leading by double digits, leaving all Obama supporters speechless!