It looks like Florida and Pennsylvania are in a furious competition to see which state will host the most entertaining Senate race of the 2010 cycle.
News that Matthews is now engaged in contract-related discussions with MSNBC has sparked additional speculation as to his intentions: Is he looking to leave his post before his contract expires in June (many are advising him to do so, Politico reports) or has he stroked rumors of a Senate run as a ploy to get a better contract offer?
Given that Matthews is taking tangible steps towards a run - including trips to Pennsylvania and reportedly looking to establish residency in Pennsylvania - the latter option is looking more improbable by the day. At the very least, it looks like we will not have to wait to long to get a sense of Matthews’s intentions.
However, it appears that Matthews will not get a clear run to the Democratic nomination. While Rep. Sestak (PA-07) took his name out of the running today, Rep. Patrick Murphy (who picked-up PA-08 in 2006) is reportedly looking towards a statewide run. Other high-profile Democratic candidates could still emerge in what could become a highly contentious battle. (Note that Pennsylvania’s primary is relatively early.)
Matthews did get some good news today as Rasmussen released the third poll that has already been taken of a Specter-Matthews contest - and the very first to find Matthews within striking distance of the Republican incumbent. The first two surveys (released by PPP and Quinnipiac) had Specter leading by double-digit though he did not cross 50% in either; this third poll has Specter ahead 46% to 43%. We are two years from the election, so the only thing we should look for is signs of an incumbent’s vulnerability and of a challenger’s potential strength - two criteria this poll meets.
But Matthews candidcay alone might not be enough to propel Pennsylvania above Florida if Jeb Bush jumps in the latter race. Perhaps the prospect of a highly competitive Republican primary could do the trick!
Former Rep. Pat Toomey said this week that he is considering a rematch of his 2004 challenge to Specter - a brutal contest Specter barely survived (the margin was less than 2%. Toomey then became president of the Club for Growth and thus funded a number of other challenges to Republican incumbents perceived as moderates, meeting defeat in a number of races (Rhode Island’s Senate race in 2006, AK-AL in 2008) and some short-lived success in others (MI-07 and MD-01, though Democrats defeated the Club-backed candidate in the general election in both districts this fall).
“He’s significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004,” Toomey said of Specter. He unveiled a very interesting argument: Tens of thousands of voters who were registered Republican in 2004 have since switched their party registration and can thus no longer vote in Pennsylvania’s closed Republican primary. Those voters were Specter’s natural constituency, giving Toomey a boost over their 2004 match-up.
Needless to say, another bloody primary would help Democrats in this race. If he survives, Specter would be softened up for the general election. If Toomey prevails, the Democratic nominee would have to be considered the favorite to pick-up the seat.
Spector’s biggest problem in Pennsylvania isn’t in the general election, in which he would start out as slightly favored, but in the Primary. Toomey is right: alot of moderate Republicans left and became either independents or Democrats, and that would definitly make Spector vulernable defeat. It is rather intersting that while Spector has good cross-over appeal with Democrats (taking 30% in the Rassumussen Poll) he is only getting 70% of Republicans, losing an equal amount of Republicans. Of course, most of these Republicans not willing to vote for Spector are probably very conservative and are not going to vote for Matthews, but rather stay home, which helps Spector a little bit. However, it does show that a right wing challange would be extremely difficult. If Pat Toomey runs against Spector again, then in all likelyhood the primary would once again be close. Even if the Democrats also have a competive primary (and Matthews is far from the the favored candidate, althrough it seems to me that it is too early for Murphy to try for a statewide run) a Spector/Toomey matchup would be 100 times more nasty. I’m not sure how softened up Spector would be: only if he had to go to the hard right to win the primary that he would be greatly weakened, and he probably would still be a slight favorite in the GE. Althrough a Toomey win would make the seat almost as sure a pick up as in Kentucky, if Jim Bunning goes through with his plans to run for reelection and Ben Chandler of KY-06 is his opponet.
I remember well during the Fall of 2007, when most observers felt the Republican primary, with so many different participants, would be a long bloody fight, but in the end it closed rather easily. I also remember those who felt the Democratic primary would be over short and sweet, although it sure wasn’t short or sweet. I totally agree that a Toomey win would help the Democrats. I also wonder if Spector might retire as the deadlines for filing loom near. The margin of Obama over McCain, with all the new Democrat voters has to be on the minds of everyone in both parties. Finally, Matthews better get some good handlers, he can get obnoxious and arrogant, and it ain’t a pretty sight, just watch Hardball.
Matthews certainly isn’t guranteed to win the the Democratic primary for the PA seante if he chooses to run, and alot of the talk that him staying at MSNBC is a conflict of interest or immoral would certainly hurt him alot in a primary.
Also, I seriously doubt that Spector would announce an retirment after affirming that he was going to run for reelection. Such an announcement would be devasting to the GOP’s chances of holding onto the seat, especially if it was to come only a few months before the primaries.
Gerard - I agree with you that expectations of the presidential primaries were wrong but Toomey/Spector have history and two well funded opponents will make for a dragged out primary (Obama vs Clinton) - when you have a crowded primary then unpredicatble things can happen (Huckabee weakening Romney just enough for McCain to win).
Specter, people, not Spector.
Any links to Sestak taking his name out of the running? I haven’t been able to find it in print.
Here’s the Sestak link.
Thanks Taniel. I take the release at face value though, he wasn’t spending money for some reason.
Ahhhh…the Republican drive for self destruction and delusion has no bounds! The desire to purify the party by throwing out all these dastardly moderates will be the undoing of the party. I just don’t see how Pat Toomey can possibly win in Pennsylvania in the event he manages to beat Specter. We saw this movie already, Casey vs. Santorum, and it di not end well for the GOP.
Are you sure Sestak is not running? Nowhere in the linked Roll Call article does it state that Sestak is not running for Senate.
On the post-general election FEC reports that were filed yesterday, Sestak spent only $129,000 in the remaining weeks running in a heavily Republican District, while Schwartz and Murphy - both in heavily Democratic Districts - spent $440,000 and $1.6 million respectively. Sestak out-ran both of them in winning margins, and now is sitting on a war chest of $3.1 million versus Schwartz’s $2 million and Murphy’s $238,000.