It was the biggest outstanding question left in the 2008 cycle, and it has just been resolved: Senator Ted Stevens has just been convicted on seven counts of lying about gifts worth more than $250,000 on financial disclosure forms.
This is first and foremost a major blow for Stevens, and a stunning fall for the towering figure of Alaska politics. The Alaska Senator now faces up to five years in prison, and his legal troubles are only the beginning. Two weeks ago, I noted that prosecutorial mishandling and disregard for defense rights should make us at least somewhat uncomfortable with a guilty verdict, but that has little to do with the verdict’s huge political fallout: Stevens is up for re-election in 8 days, and it’s difficult to see how he can survive this.
Stevens fell in a deep hole in the polls in the immediate aftermath of his July indictment, but he had battled his way back to a dead heat in most recent surveys. The news of his sweeping conviction (on all counts) will now dominate Alaska’s news coverage over the next eight days, and Stevens will come under pressure to resign.
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has just become the clear favorite to pick-up the seat, and Democrats are one seat closer to their dream of a 60 seat super-majority. And even if Stevens somehow prevails next Tuesday, he would face expulsion, though he could perhaps delay that procedure until an appeal is heard.
Alaska thus joins Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire as GOP-held seats in which a Democratic victory is likely - bringing the total to 5 seats.
But the damage could reverberate beyond the Alaska Senate race. Stevens is no ordinary politician, he is the longest serving Republican in the U.S. Senate and he represents the home state of the GOP’s vice-presidential nominee. At the very least, this will cost McCain one of the last news cycle he has available to change the narrative and tighten the race. Today was going to mark a Republican offensive on Obama’s “redistributive” goals, but the verdict will be the day’s dominant political story, obscuring the presidential race - and that is great news for Obama.
At worst for the GOP, the verdict could lead the media to talk about other stories of alleged political corruption like those facing Don Young and even Palin with troopergate. It could also mean trouble for Republicans who have received contributions from Stevens. Al Franken already tried to make this into an issue against Sen. Norm Coleman. And any hope Alaska’s Rep. Don Young had to survive have probably just been crushed, as Young’s own ethical problems will be tied in to Stevens’s fate and lead Alaska voters to reject the state’s Republican establishment. Could this also endanger McCain-Palin’s hold on Alaska’s 3 electoral votes?
Taniel, the analysis can be boiled down to 3 words: Stevens is finished.
Unfortunately I wouldn’t put anything past the American voting public. Why, for instance, is there no pressure on Sarah Palin to resign after a state probe found that she had abused the powers of her office to pursue the personal vendetta against her ex-brother in law? Citizen apathy and complacency seem to have reached their apotheosis in Alaska.
Like a housing bubble, a towering and most powerful figure in American politics or popular culture can burst any moment. The Three Corrupt Alaskans, palin, Young and Stevens, are the poster children of GOP hypocrisy, cronyism, and decadence. It is amazing that all 3 powerful Republicans are facing ethical problems, which signals to voters that the GOP is a party of unethical politics interested mainly in advancing party politics, power politics, and ideologies at odd with the fundamentals of Americanism.
And the should-be-lobotomiz, subhuman-like skinheads who thought they are making a great contribution to advancing institutionalized racism by trying to kill Obama. Oh well, any president is subject to harm inspired by popular anger or individual grudges. What a sad state of affairs.
BTW Taniel, I am merely reflecting on a personal take of the events of today, so I apologize for my overly subjective analysis of the circumstances. I am enjoying your wodnerful objective blogging.
As a convicted felon, Stevens can still run for the Senate, but is he now barred from voting for his own re-election? Perhaps I should direct my question to Katherine Harris.