Campaign Diaries

In what is perhaps the biggest judicial decision of the 2008 Election since a Nevada judge allowed at-large casino caucuses to stand (though that certainly did not play out as the Obama campaign was hoping it would), the United States Supreme Court overturned a lower court ruling and decided that Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner was not required to help local election officials purge voter registration lists.

The Supreme Court ruled against the Ohio GOP that Brunner will not have to share with local officials lists of new registrants whose names do not match government databases (drivers’ license or Social Security files). That would have potentially led to tens of thousands of registrations being stricken off voter rolls, and the state-provided lists would also have been a basis for voter challenges at the polls on November 4th.

While Republicans say that a match-up re-verification system is important to prevent voter fraud, Democrats respond that most of the mistakes are due to clerical errors and that too many actual voters would be struck off the lists in a classic Republican attempt at voter suppression.

The Democrats’ argument was vividly illustrated yesterday when The Toledo Blade reported that Joe the Plumber’s name had been misspelled on voter registration rolls (Worzelbacher instead of Wurzelbacher). If Joe the Plumber had been a new registrant, his name would probably have been purged off the list in the type of verification the GOP wanted in Ohio and that the Supreme Court just prevented - the type of verification that is being implemented in Florida. The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Ohio House Speaker’s registration would also not match against government databases… confirming that voter rolls are too messed up for such match-up procedures to be effective.

While the Supreme Court did not rule on the merits of match-up verification but rather on the Ohio GOP’s standing to file suit against Brunner in the first place, the result is that there will be no massive voter registration purge in Ohio (unlike in some other states) and that challenging voters will be slightly more difficult. This might not matter much if the election is decided in a blowout, but if it comes down to a few thousand votes it could certainly help Barack Obama, who stands to benefit the most if more first time voters participate.

Another legal dispute is ongoing in Indiana, where Republicans are still blocking three early voting sites in heavily African-American Lake County (yes, that Lake County) despite polling places having opened elsewhere in the state. Republicans profess to be concerned about the possibility of voter fraud, and their argument is that the local election board had to approve new voting sites unanimously (the three Democrats were in favor of it, but the two Republicans voted against it). It is unclear how this will be resolved, but at the very least Republicans have been successful at delaying the start of early voting in a county Obama needs to do very well in to carry the Hoosier State. The voting sites were scheduled to open two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, in other news from battleground states:

• In Georgia, we have now reached the staggering number of 635,798 early voters, but the proportion of African-Americans is steadily declining, and is now at 35%. That remains, however, far above the voting population or the 2004 share of the electorate but it is a reminder that the composition of early voting will not be the same as that of Election Day.

• In Colorado, a New York Times story looks at mail-in voting in Colorado and reveals that nearly half of all eligible voters have already requested mail-in ballots - two weeks before the deadline to do so! Also: North Carolina polling places opened yesterday - and turnout is already picking up - and early voting is strong in Indiana.

• Slate hits the trail in New Mexico; it might not be the most competitive of battleground states, but it is certainly politically complex.

• Politico warns that Election Day could be a catastrophe in numerous states - first and foremost Colorado. The Denver Post agrees, in its own alarming article.

• The Boston Globe analyzes the dynamics of the Ohio exurbs.