Campaign Diaries

Democrats have been trying to expand the Senate map since the start of the cycle, and as of mid-September it looked like the GOP had managed to stop the bleeding by solidifying its position in a number of races that Democrats were eying. But Senate Republicans are now back in their downward spiral, the prospect of several incumbents badly damaged by the economic crisis. For the first time in the long history of my Senate ratings, there are a stunning 11 Republican-held seats that are rated as highly vulnerable (meaning that they are rated lean retention or above), two more than in my previous rankings.

Five of those seats are rated lean retention, but they are not the five you might expect, as Alaska and North Carolina are trading seats in these rating update. While her race remains hotly contested, Sen. Dole has fallen slightly behind in recent weeks (and Republican operatives are even more worried than poll numbers seem to justify); on the other hand, Sen. Stevens is looking surprisingly strong, and it looks likely that he would survive this race if he is acquitted in the coming weeks.

Complicating calculations is the fact that highly competitive seats tend to break heavily towards one party, as the national political breeze of the final days tips the balance to one side. That allowed the GOP to nearly sweep the table in 2002 and 2004, while in 2006 Democrats won 6 out of the 7 seats that could have been described as highly contested in the final week of the campaign (MO, MT, NJ, MD, VA, RI and TN). That makes it unlikely that Democratic pick-ups are somewhere at the middle of their range, say 6 or 7. Far more likely are that Republicans slightly improve their situation and save most of the seats that are now rated as toss-ups or lean Republican (holding Democrats at 4 or 5 pick-ups) or that Democrats push their advantage and sweep most of the seats now in contention (getting them to 9 or 10 pick-ups). At the present moment, this ought to worry Republicans, for Democrats have all the momentum and the blue wave is threatening to transform itself into yet another tsunami.

The full ratings are available here. Here are today’s four rating changes:

Alaska, lean Democratic to toss-up: I acknowledge that this rating change is contrary to the conventional wisdom about this race, but there is no reason to categorize this seat as lean take-over when the result now looks to be almost entirely dependent on the decision of 12 Washington D.C. residents who are serving as the jury of Stevens’ trial. Mark Begich had pulled far ahead in July, but Stevens closed the gap over the past two months and seems to be convincing a sizable number of Alaskans that whether or not he is corrupt is irrelevant to the fact that he brings a lot of money to Alaska. The race is now a toss-up in the polls - the latest Ivan Moore survey has Begich leading by 4%, the latest Rasmussen has Stevens leading by 1%. If Stevens is found guilty, it should be enough to propel Begich over the top; but if Stevens is acquitted, it should him give him the last-minute boost he needs to come out on top. And as I explained yesterday, I am getting increasingly uncomfortable with the former scenario given how openly the prosecution has trampled defense rights in this trial.

Georgia, likely Republican to lean Republican: Who knew that Saxby Chambliss was this vulnerable? Late late spring, there were many other candidates to join the group of highly competitive Senate contests: Maine, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Idaho… Democrats were too busy figuring out what was happening in a divisive primary in Georgia to think ahead to the general election. But some polls showed potential immediately after Jim Martin’s nomination - and that as before the financial crisis undercut Chambliss’s defenses along with those of Republican candidates nationwide. Chambliss retains an edge, but polls have shown that the race has dramatically  closed to the low single digits. Yet, the DSCC is not running ads on his behalf. That is certainly understandable (the DSCC is running ads in 9 states…), but unless the Democratic wind is really strong it could mean that Martin is unable to take full advantage of his opening. Martin’s success might very well depend on Obama’s coattails and on whether the Illinois Senator increases the share of the black vote in the state. Early voting indicators are very strong for Democrats, but Martin would have been in a far stronger position had Obama not pulled out of the state in mid-September.

Kentucky, likely Republican to lean Republican: Kentucky’s inclusion in the list of competitive seats is less surprising than Georgia’s. We have known that Mitch McConnell is highly vulnerable  since polls released in the fall of 2007 showed him barely beating a number of Democrats. Yet, many top-tier Democrats passed on the race and Bruce Lunsford simply did not seem a strong enough candidate to make it this tight (nor would he be a reliable enough Democrat for progressives to get excited over). But the race has been highly engaged for months, with both candidates running vicious ads (Lunsford has been particularly smart by contrasting McCain’s reformist image to McConnell’s insider status). And in the context of the financial crisis, it might no longer matter how good or bad a candidate is as long as he has a “D” next to his name; as the Senate Minority Leader, McConnell is that much more likely to suffer from voter anger about Washington and about Republicans. Over the past few weeks, polls have shown the race has closed, with Mason Dixon going as far as showing a tie; most other pollsters show McConnell up in single digits. The DSCC has just gone up on air against McConnell, further proof that Democrats are determined to bring down the Senate’s Republican leader.

North Carolina, toss-up to lean Democratic: This race is the biggest surprise of this year’s Senate cycle. While we certainly knew that Senator Dole was vulnerable, Democrats were certainly not expecting for the incumbent’s standing to collapse so easily. Dole led by double-digits through July, but a hard-hitting campaign by the DSCC took care of Dole’s numbers, as the race quickly became a toss-up by the end of August. Since then, Hagan has inched ahead in a number of polls, with her lead extending as much as a 9% in the latest PPP survey! To make matters worse for Dole, Hagan will benefit from Obama’s turnout machine while McCain’s ground game is minimal in the Tar Heel state. Somewhat surprisingly, Republican operatives are very pessimistic about this race, dropping quotes in a multitude of press outlets about how bad Dole’s situation is. Though there is no question that Dole’s campaign has been strikingly weak and its attakcs on Hagan have failed to catch on, polls do not justify such a high level of despair. The race remains highly competitive, and it could easily find its way back to the toss-up column in upcoming weeks. For now, however, Hagan is riding the DSCC advertisements and Obama’s momentum in the state, and that is proving a lethal combination.