Campaign Diaries

[Updated with ABC's new OH poll] If last Wednesday will be remembered as the day Obama surged ahead in the polls, that is nothing compared to the stunning numbers Obama posts today. His strength is evident in so many different ways that it is hard to know where to start - but what is evident is that the race is breaking in Obama’s direction, and that Republicans will have to play catch-up in a way we have not seen either party have to do in the past two presidential elections.

First, Obama’s national numbers are now regularly coming in at 50% or higher, and CNN’s new survey finds the Democrat with his highest level of support ever in a national poll - 53%. In other words, McCain needs to do more than convince undecided voters, he also needs to peel away voters who are currently leaning towards Obama.

Second, McCain’s numbers are collapsing in most of the crucial red states. Obama jumps to his biggest lead yet in NC (6%) and he is ahead by 12% and 10% in two VA surveys! He is also ahead by 6% in a new ABC poll of Ohio. Rasmussen does show better numbers for McCain in Ohio and Virginia, but Republicans can hardly take comfort in Rasmussen’s latest release: the Arizona Senator has fallen behind outside of the margin of error in FL (a 12% swing over the past two weeks) and in CO.

These numbers are not outliers. For instance, this is the fifth poll in a row to find Obama ahead in the Sunshine State by margins ranging from 3% to 8%. Unless McCain wins a blue state (which is looking increasingly unlikely, as the third straight poll finds Obama jumping to a huge lead in NH), he has to sweep all red states but IA and NM. Obama today leads in at least one poll of OH, NC, VA, FL, CO, MO - and he only leads one of these states. On to the day’s full roundup:

• Today’s tracking polls continue to show Obama in a dominant position, and continuing to inch beyond the 50% mark. He reaches 52% for the first time ever in Rasmussen’s poll and leads 52% to 44%. In Gallup, he is ahead 50% to 42%. In Diego Hotline, the margin is smaller - 47% to 41%. And Research 2000 finds the Democrat leading 52% to 40% for the third straight day.

• Obama expands his lead in a new CNN national poll and leads 53% to 45%. This is the first time Obama has ever reached 53% in any national poll.

• Obama leads 49% to 43% in a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. That’s under 50%, but it is an improvement over his 2% lead two weeks ago. Independents have swung by 17% in that time. 35% of voters (40% of white voters) say they are bothered by Obama’s connections to people the Journal describes as “unpopular black figures.”

• Obama leads by a shocking 52% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. McCain led by 5% two weeks ago, the candidates were tied last week. One big change is that Obama is finally strong among registered Democrats.

• Obama surges ahead 51% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. He led by 1% last week.

• Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri. He trailed by 5% three weeks ago. Obama’s strength comes first and foremost from the 88% he receives among registered Democrats.

• UPDATE: Obama leads 51% to 45% in a new ABC/Washington Post poll of Ohio.

• McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Obama is stronger than usual among registered Democrats (85%), but McCain’s party loyalty is stronger. This poll is McCain’s only good news of the day.

• Obama leads 50% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina. This is his biggest lead yet in any poll of North Carolina (he led by 2% last week). This is also the first time Obama is above 80% among registered Democrats in a PPP survey.

• Obama leads 53% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. He led by 6% two weeks ago. Obama climbs among white voters. Note that the sample is more Democratic than the previous ones, but Obama improves his position among independents and Republicans as well.

• Obama leads 51% to 39% in a Suffolk poll of Virginia. Suffolk polls in other states have not been particularly unexpected.

• Obama leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. This is a 1% gain for McCain over last week’s poll.

• Obama leads 53% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Hampshire.

• Obama leads 45% to 40% in an Albuquerque Journal poll of New Mexico.

• McCain leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of Georgia.

• Obama leads 49% to 38% in the Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 10% yesterday.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

• Jeanne Shaheen leads 48% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Hampshire’s Senate race.

• Kay Hagan leads 49% to 40% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 8% last week and by 3% two weeks ago. This is her biggest lead in any poll. Libertarian Chris Cole gets 5%.

• Saxby Chambliss leads 45% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of Georgia’s Senate race.

• Susan Collins leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Maine’s Senate race. She led by 13% in August.

• A DSCC poll finds a similar margin, though Collins is under 50% and leads 49% to 41%.

• An internal DCCC poll shows Eric Massa leading GOP Rep. Kuhl 47% to 42% in NY-29.

• An internal DCCC poll finds Democrat Ashwin Media ahead in MN-03, 44% to 39%. Independent Party candidate David Dillon gets 8%.

Senate: The Democrats’ quest to put new seats in play just four weeks from the election seems to be paying off in Georgia, as this is the closest margin we have seen yet in this race. It comes in the heels of two surveys - one conducted for the DSCC, one conducted by SUSA - that found Chambliss’s lead within the margin of error. So will the DSCC invest in the race? In Maine, however, Collins remains solid. Sure, the margin has tightened but consistently trailing by “only” 10% isn’t anything for Democrats to celebrate. The DSCC just went up on air in this state, however, so we will see whether there is any movement in the upcoming weeks.

As for North Carolina, very few pollsters other than PPP and Rasmussen are surveying the state, so we cannot compare PPP’s numbers to those of other pollsters. But despite the fact that PPP is a Democratic firm, there is very little reason to doubt that Hagan is indeed pulling ahead. For one, PPP found Dole up by big margins earlier this year (a 14% lead in July, for instance). Second, GOP operatives sound very worried about this race.

House: The only new numbers here are internal Democratic polls (though it is no coincidence that we are only rarely getting polls released by GOP candidates or by the NRCC), so take them with a grain of salt. But they obviously bring very good news for Democrats in two toss-up districts. In NY-29 in particular, an incumbent in the low 40s is bound to face big trouble.