The battle lines are getting clearer in the presidential race. With Iowa and New Mexico leaning Obama and the Democrat inching ahead in Colorado, keeping the Kerry states would be enough to get Obama to the White House - and he can even afford to lose New Hampshire since a tie favors Obama. With that in mind, we will keep a particularly sharp eye on polls from Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
And today’s news is good for Obama: he continues to post a narrow but consistent advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Michigan appears to be breaking open in his favor. Three out of five surveys released today have him leading between 8% and 13%, a margin supported by Marist’s 9% earlier this week and Obama’s 5% (7% among registered voters) yesterday. However, Mason Dixon does find a tie in the Wolverine State today.
As long as those five states break Obama’s way, the other states lose importance, so forgive my glancing over the latest toss-up poll from Ohio, McCain’s semi-comforting 8% lead in West Virginia or Obama’s two three 1% leads in New Hampshire. And don’t forget Rasmussen North Carolina survey that I wrote extensively about early this morning. Another poll of importance is Obama’s 5% lead in the latest NYT/CBS poll.
First, the five polls from Michigan:
- Obama leads 48% to 38% in an EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan. Obama led by only 1% in a EPIC-MRA survey taken just a few days ago.
- Obama leads 51% to 38% in a Detroit Free Press poll of Michigan conducted by Selzer & Co. Obama leads by 15% when voters are asked which candidate they trust on the economy.
- Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Strategic Vision poll of Michigan.
- Obama leads 47% to 39% in an Insider Advantage/National Journal poll of Michigan.
- The candidates are tied in a Mason Dixon/NBC poll of Michigan. Here, McCain does well in the Detroit suburbs (home of Reagan Democrats), which is key to a victory here.
It’s not a surprise that Michigan would be the state in which we would see the biggest shift as the conversation turns to the financial crisis, as this is among the most hard-hit state economically. But it is a major development, as the McCain campaign (and polls) had long regarded Michigan as the GOP’s biggest opportunity to pick up a blue state. However, note that both campaigns have recently been spending more in Pennsylvania than in Michigan, suggesting that the Keystone State is being recast in its traditional role of most-vulnerable-Democratic-state.
On to other presidential polls, including the three polls from Pennsylvania:
- Obama leads 47% to 42% in a new CBS News/New York Times national poll. This is the same margin as last week. McCain reclaims the lead among independents.
- Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania taken Wednesday. He led by 3% in a poll taken on Saturday, so a stable race.
- Obama leads 43% to 41% in an Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania.
- Obama leads 50% to 44% in a SUSA poll of Pennsylvania.
- Obama leads 49% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin.
- McCain leads 47% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio.
- Obama leads 44% to 43% in a National Journal/Insider Advantage poll of New Hampshire.
- Obama also leads 46% to 45% in a Strategic Vision poll of New Hampshire.
- Obama also leads 46% to 45% in a Suffolk poll of New Hampshire.
- Obama leads 52% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Oregon. He led by 3% last month.
- Obama only leads 49% to 44% in a SUSA poll of Maine, which could make him lose one 1EV - and one he cannot afford to lose if he loses New Hampshire as well. (This poll does find McCain leading among 18-34 year old voters.)
- McCain leads 50% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of West Virginia. That is a more reassuring lead than other surveys have found lately, and keep in mind that Obama is not investing in the state (though some WV markets overlap with markets from swing states in which Obama ads are running).
- Safe blue states: Obama leads 57% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Delaware, 55% to 39% in a SUSA poll of New York; 58% to 38% in a Rasmussen poll of Massachusetts
- Safe red states: McCain leads 51% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Arkansas.
Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:
- Jeff Merkley has gained 14% in two months in SUSA’s poll of Oregon’s Senate race and taken a narrow lead (within the MoE), 44% to 42%. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 8%, probably helping Merkley.
- Two polls from Alaska’s Senate race find close races: Farleigh Dickinson has Begich leading 47% to 43%, Ivan Moore finds Begich leading 48% to 46% (he led by 3% two weeks ago).
- Two polls from AK-AL find that Don Young is still alive: Farleigh Dickinson has Berkowitz leading 47% to 41%, Ivan Moore has Berkowitz leading 49% to 44% (he led by 17% two weeks ago). Berkowitz’s unfavorability rating has shot up in Ivan Moore.
- Kay Hagan leads yet again in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina’s Senate race - the second Rasmussen took over the past 7 days. She had a 6% lead last week (her largest yet), 3% today: 48% to 45%.
- Susan Collins does not tremble in a SUSA poll of Maine’s Senate race. She continues to crush Tom Allen 55% to 39%.
- Jeb Bradley leads Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter 45% to 42% in a UNH poll. He led by 6% in July. Paul Hodes leads by 12% in his district.
- An internal poll for the Nye campaign finds the Democrat closing the gap in VA-02, but she still trails 45% to 40%.
- [Corrected, previous write-up of MI-07 was horribly mistaken] Democratic challenger Mark Schauer of MI-07 released an internal poll finding him leading 42% to 36% against Rep. Walberg. He led by 3% in a May survey.
- Safe seats: Biden and Markell lead in SUSA polls of Delaware’s senatorial and gubernatorial races. Kerry leads in Massachusetts.
Some excellent news for both parties, as Democrats will be heartened that Hagan and Merkley continue to be more than competitive despite GOP ads stepping up their attacks. MI-07 is undoubtedly one of the Democrats top targets, and any incumbent polling at 36% (even in an internal poll) is in danger. But Republicans will take comfort in the fact that neither of Alaska’s races appear to be over, as the two GOP incumbents are making somewhat of a comeback. The question now is how voters will react to the month-long coverage of Stevens’ trial. Odds are that the coverage of the Senator’s corruption will also hurt Young’s standing.
It looks like Shea Porter is in great trouble as she is a liberal Democratic in a swing district that happens to lean Republican (if not barely Republican). Also her election was widely seen as a major upset and its possible that the electorate is going into correction mode in leaning towards putting Bradley back in office. Even if Shays in CT-4 falls, there is a good chance that there will still be at least one Republican in New England, and it is likely to be Bradley.
The Maine Senate race numbers show that the Democrats have failed to make the race competive, despite having a popular congressman of one of only two districts. Probably a big dissapointment, but unlike Chafee, Collins is very popular compared to just ok, and unlike Rhode Island, Maine isn’t a Democratic Strong hold. That polls have been showing Obama in single digits in Maine is testement to this fact, althrough both of Maine’s district are similar in partisan leanings, so the second district isn’t likely to fall to McCain with Obama taking the rest of the state unless polls consistenly show Obama with only a 2 point margin. A 4 point margin allows Obama to barely make it in Maine’s second district.
Correction: In the MI-07 race, Schauer is the challenger against Rep. Walberg, a far right-wing conservative who took out a moderate Republican last term. This poll shows Schauer up 6% at 42% to 36%, versus being down to Walberg by 3% in May. So it is not a worrisome result for Schauer, but it is a worrisome result for the incumbent Walberg since he was in the lead by 3% in May.
Kell,
Thanks for the correction, quite an awful mistake indeed!
Jaxx is correct on Shea Porter. She was a movement candidate who was swept in on a tide of anti-war sentiment. Unlike Hodes, who quickly consolidated his electionwith an infrastructure and funding, Shea Porter still has a rudimentary admin staff, modest funding with no coherent fund-raising apparatus - most of the fund-raising muscle went to Shaheen or stayed with Lynch - and is the focal point for Union Leader attacks.
NH is very volatile and on a bad night, McCain, Sununu and Bradley could all win their races. Lynch is enormously popular but is very cautious about using that for other candidates. Like many other states, at the moment the inchoate rage against the bail-out could migrate in about a dozen different directions. With the late news that McCain may have cratered the earlier agreement and sided with the House rebels on a very different bill, its impossible to guess where public sentiment will take this.
Strange Days……