Campaign Diaries

For Democrats to win a Senate seat in red Mississippi, absolutely everything has to break their way which is perhaps why this election is generating so much controversy. At the beginning of the year, Gov. Barbour succeeded in moving the special senatorial election from the March date state law appeared to mandate to November 4th; that was meant to give Wicker more time to develop an incumbency advantage and spare the GOP the risks of a low-turnout spring election.

Yesterday, the GOP-controlled state Election Commission took another controversial move by placing the Musgrove-Wicker Senate race at the very bottom of the ballot - after obscure races like local school boards. Just like the debate over the election’s date, this has now become a legal battle because of a state law that says federal elections have to be placed at the top of the ballot. A judge issued a restraining order, blocking the state from printing ballots until the issue is resolved.

Democrats and Republicans are very much convinced this down-ballot placement would be very harmful to Musgrove. The reasoning is that down-ballot placement might lead low-information voters as well as many first-time voters who Democrats hope will be black (due to the Obama factor) to overlook the Musgrove-Wicker race. Another reason this could truly hurt Musgrove is that voters tend to favor incumbents in down-the-ballot races, as they typically have paid less attention to those.

(All of this is complicated by the fact that that Musgrove’s and Wicker’s party affiliation will not appear on the ballot because this is a special election. That is in many ways good for Democrats, as Musgrove will not be automatically dragged down by his party affiliation, but it could also prevent him from benefiting from whatever boost of black turnout Obama generates - particularly if the race is buried at the bottom of the ballot.)

But there also convincing reasons why this could backfire and actually hurt Wicker as well. One of the main reasons the GOP wanted the race to be moved to November was so they could benefit from higher-turnout associated with the presidential race and so they could ride the coattails of white voters massively coming out to vote for the GOP and make sure that the electorate’s racial breakdown reflects historical trends. But if the Musgrove-Wicker race is buried under the ballot, wouldn’t many white voters who are only coming out to vote because of the presidential race also be moved to overlook it? In Mississippi, voting breaks down along racial lines rather than class lines, as a Democrat would be lucky to even get 20% of the white vote; so are low-information voters really more likely to be the Democrats’ constituency?

Another factor that might make this a misguided move for the GOP: Mississippi’s white voters still vote Democratic in local races, it is only in federal elections that they massively break towards Republicans. Democrats control both the state Senate and the state House, the latter by a large 73-46 margin! By pulling the Mississippi Senate race out of the federal category and into down-the-ballot placement, does the GOP not risk depriving itself of this dynamic (common to many Southern states)?

This might all be moot if courts overrule, but questions about how voters might perceive Musgrove and Wicker will be crucial to the November results, especially since voters will not be reminded of party affiliations. Wherever the race is located on the ballot, a white voter who is coming out to vote for McCain will have to remember that Wicker is a GOPer, just as a black voter will have to remember that Musgrove is a Democrat. And keep in mind that there is more to gain for Democrats to blur partisan lines than Republicans, as blacks are extremely unlikely to go for the GOP while some white voters might be moved to vote Democratic.

This is the logic that is driving the Democrats’ campaign. Musgrove is running as conservative a campaign as possible, though he has said he will vote for Obama. And the DSCC’s new ad in the state attacks Wicker for not being like… John McCain!

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLvXu8o8IDs"]

This is somewhat of a reversed echo of Gordon Smith’s ads embracing Barack Obama, though Mississippi’s dynamics are much more confused - the incumbent has been in office for a few months, voters know Musgrove well, party affiliations will not be on the ballot, the placement is disputed, we don’t know whether Obama will succeed in boosting black turnout…