As you have surely noticed, I have been staying away from this final stretch of veepstake speculation because these last few days have generated an incredible amount of wild speculation - a lot of which are impossible to verify. So here’s an attempt at separating some elements of fact from the growingly hysterical buzz.
When: Obama has to make some sort of announcement in the coming days, and the text message announcement could come at any moment. What now looks fairly certain is that Obama will appear with his vice-presidential pick in Springfield, IL this Saturday, meaning that the choice will be announced some time before then - most probably from Thursday morning to Friday night.
As for McCain, the timing became much less suspensful when McCain did not make any announcement last week, as the only slot he had left was August 29th. Politico confirmed yesterday that the McCain campaign was organizing a large-scale rally in Dayton, OH on that Friday (the day after the Democratic convention), an event at which the Senator will appear with his own pick.
The Democratic short list: Bayh, Biden, Kaine. Biden, Kaine, Bayh. Kaine, Biden, Bayh. The top-tier has been known for weeks, but no new information that has come out in the past week has allowed us to find out who is about to get the nod. (1) Mark Warner becoming the keynote speaker was taken as a sign that Kaine would not be the pick, but Obama might very well be planning a Virginia-centric convention. (2) Joe Biden traveled to Georgia not because Obama sent him there but because the Georgian President invited him. And his telling the press “I’m not the guy” sparked so much talk that “it might not be Biden” after all that Biden “walked it back” Tuesday night.
(3) Was the mounting speculation surrounding Bayh last week a trial balloon? If it was, many progressives tried their best to pop it, but is that what Obama was hoping would happen (if he wants to go to the center) or what he feared? What about Bloomberg story that Bayh could be out because of his wife’s seats on corporate boards? The Obama campaign surely already knew about that and if Bayh was still in the running after being vetted it is surely after the campaign had already thought that through.
And what about other contenders? We have had some hard information pointing towards Hillary Clinton not being the VP pick (even though that is far from certain, and Ralph Nader is betting it will be), what about Nunn and Sebelius? Why have they dropped out of the top-tier? It might very well be because there is no buzz around them, but there is no hard information pointing towards Sebelius not being on Obama’s short list. She is still not responding to questions, Obama still speaks highly of her and we are pretty sure she was being vetted. Same with Reed, Richardson, and Dodd.
In other words, it is still anyone’s game - though there is no question that the conventional wisdom appears to have settled on Joe Biden just as it settled on Tim Kaine three weeks ago and Evan Bayh before Obama went on his Hawaii break. Howard Fineman is reporting that Biden is the favorite, and Intrade and Hillary’s alums apparently agree. That might very well be because Biden looks like the most obvious choice on paper - especially since Webb and Strickland took themselves out of the running. And it is true that Obama is more unlikely to pick a completely unexpected pick - say a Schweitzer or a Hagel - with only days to go until the convention and a time he has a consistent but very narrow lead. That’s a position that leads one to caution.
The pro-choice trial balloon: The discussion in the GOP veepstakes has almost entirely centered on the possibility of a pro-choice VP pick over the past few days. McCain himself said he was open to the idea last week, and the resulting outcry led people to conclude that the trial balloon had been popped for good. But last night, the speculation started over as the National Review reported that Republican officials were being contacted and asked about such a possibility. The result has been a firestorm of rumors: NR launched its anti-Ridge lobbying, and the Page is now saying that Ridge is out. That would still leave us with Joe Lieberman - a pick that is generating a lot of buzz but that is so bizarre that it is difficult for me to assess what effect that might have on the race.
So bluff or serious vetting? Trial balloon or true short list? There is simply no way of knowing, as every argument has its inverse. It makes perfect sense for McCain to float the possibility of a pro-choice pick like Lieberman and Ridge even if he ends up selecting someone else. It makes him look moderate and willing to consider figures whom the electorate thinks of as centrist. It also could make conservatives relieved with whatever pro-lifer they get, even if it’s someone like Romney or Crist whom they have had disagreements with (this is very much the same situation as the Democratic veepstakes, where Biden or Kaine, both moderates, could be viewed as a relief by progressives compared to Nunn, Hagel or Bayh).
On the other hand, we do know that McCain would want to pick someone like Lieberman if there was no political drawback and that choosing an unconventional choice like Lieberman or Ridge would make sense (at least on paper), for it would bolster McCain’s “maverick” theme, allow him to double-up on experience and on national security - two areas he has put at the center of his attacks against Obama. The McCain campaign might also be thinking that Rush Limbaugh’s outrage at the thought of a pro-choice ticket sounds like the anti-McCain statements he and other conservative activists made earlier this year, in other words not taking the threats of an unenthusiastic base that seriously.
Here again, it is anyone’s game - and it is especially difficult to say what McCain is thinking because his campaign’s thinking will most probably be influenced by Obama’s choice and even by the tone of the Democratic convention. Will the election be waged on experience, on national security, on domestic issues, on an age contrast? How charismatic will the Democrats’ VP pick be, how knowledgeable, how popular, how moderate? McCain will know the answer to those questions by the time he makes his choice public.
Most recent VP headlines:
- August 8th: When the veepstakes start to get a little old
- August 3rd: Speculation on timing and a new name in the GOP veepstakes
- July 29th: Kaine rising and Clinton fading
- July 27th: Veepstakes are entering their last stretch
Biden may be picked, but I don’t think he’s going to help Obama much. Biden has a deep grasp of foreign policy but he’s 65. He would be at least 73 at the end of Obama’s second term. Also, I would expect the VP to be required to do a lot of traveling, to be Obama’s surrogate around the world. Is Biden going to be up to all that traveling in two or three years’ time?
Bayh’s support of the Iraq invasion does not recommend him well to a lot of progressives. It’s uncertain that Obama will even invest heavily into winning Indiana anyway. At any rate, Obama has held off on his choice for so long now that choosing Bayh will surely be greeted with yawns and groans in many activist quarters. Not a good thing going into a convention.
As for Kaine, he’s young, untested, largely unknown. However, he comes from a key state, and is no slouch when it comes to brains. Picking Kaine would not exactly be a surprise, but it would certainly be a more interesting pick than the other two mentioned above. Kaine would be a good Obama surrogate as VP: a fresh, youngish face, willing to see things in a new light.
In my opinion, Kaine is clearly the best choice of the three, but that’s not saying much.
True Biden would be 73 at the end of two terms. McCain would be 72 at the START of his term (80 at the end). So any criticism of Biden goes double for McCain who would actually be President not VICE-President.
I think Biden would be the best choice because he would most easily play the role of VP candidate attack dog, has experienced loss and tragedy in his life but recovered strongly, and is a Democrat that many Republicans could at least be comfortable with because of his hawkish image. The only drawback for Democrats (his endless talking and off-the-cuff remarks are really only minor) is his age, but not due to vigor or travel requirements. If McCain loses at 72, it will attributed at least partly (if not significantly) to his age, which means that at 73 a Vice President Biden would likely NOT be running for president in 2016, then Obama would have no successor and we would again have a wide open election. Obviously a lot can happen between 2008 and 2016 with a VP, but its got to be something that the Obama camp is considering.