Campaign Diaries

Alaska politics have been dominated for decades by the towering figures of Don Young, Ted Stevens and Frank Murkowski. But the corruption scandals that have been hitting the state’s Republicans have led to a changing of the guard. In 2006, Sarah Palin crushed Governor Frank Murkowski in the gubernatorial primary, with the incumbent left in third position! Two years later, it is Young’s and Steven’s turn to be in trouble.

Democrats are strongly contesting both Young’s House seat and Stevens’s Senate seat. But we will know a lot about what to expect from the November results on August 26th, when Republican primaries decide whether they will renominate Stevens and Young. As I have explained numerous times, the GOP’s best hopes to retain these two seats involve (1) Ted Stevens winning his primary so that Republican can pressure him into dropping out and (2) Don Young losing against Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell.

Just a few days ago, Parnell released an internal poll showing him leading by 4% - confirming that this is one of the hottest primary races of the year. But the Lieutenant Governor just got the biggest endorsement there is to get in the state - that of ultra-popular Governor (and long-shot in the GOP veepstakes) Sarah Palin. Parnell released a new ad this week in which Palin makes a special appearance:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lish7obpl24"]

Palin calls Parnell an “honest, conservative and smart,” in what is truly an important moment in Alaska politics. Two years after sending Frank Murkowski into retirement, Palin appears ready to complete her takeover of the state GOP. While she has not come out against Stevens (it would be hard for her to do so considering the nobodies that are running against him in the primary), she is leaving no doubt as to where she is standing in the current generational battles.

Palin’s choice of words - honest and conservative - is not innocent: Against Republicans that have discredited for corruption scandals but also for their overspending, earmarks, pork projects and bridges to nowhere, Palin is trying to reclaim ethics and fiscal discipline. It is no surprise, then, that groups like Club for Growth have taken such an interest in Alaska politics. The Club recently released a very tough hitting ad against Young (you can watch it here), accusing him of having slipped in an earmark benefiting a Florida investor who had donated to his campaign. This spot combines both charges that are hurting Young right now - corruption and overspending. The Club is flexing its muscle with this ad - having bought $350,000 worth of time, a huge amount in a state with a cheap market like Alaska.

Meanwhile, Republicans seem unsure what to do about since it makes little sense for them to root for Stevens to be defeated in a primary since Mark Begich would be a clear favorite against any of the Republicans who might win against Stevens - so the GOP has to sit and wait. Today, Stevens released his first ad, making the best case he has - that his Washington clout is too big for Alaska voters to afford throwing him out:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqGudtuW50Y"]

“Ordinary” Alaska voters explain that Alaska would be worse off without Stevens and his ability to bring funds to the state. “Without Ted, we’re toast,” says one. “We cannot afford to be without his presence in the Senate,” adds another. This argument, of course, runs against the fiscal conservatism that Palin and the Club for Growth profess to want to bring to Alaska. That might be very well on paper, responds Stevens - but earmarks actually help voters. And in small states like Alaska that have had powerful senators, that argument is bound to resonate.

The problem for Stevens is that he is not on control of his own destiny. The Alaska press will be focused on his indictment and his upcoming trial, and the local headlines will continue to be disastrous for the incumbent Senator, not only in the run-up to the primary but all the way to November. Today, for instance, Anchorage Daily News published a lengthy article detailing the new information that is coming out about the charges against Stevens. It is still unlikely that the Senator will lose his primary - but even if he survives on August 26th, would Republicans be able to convince him to step down?