Campaign Diaries

Today was Wednesday - meaning I should have published my electoral college ratings. But my desire to go slower this week combined with the fact that the race has been rather stable for a while now is making me delay it for once - but an update should come shortly. In fact, just a few hours after I pointed out how stable poll numbers had been in most states, a second wave of surveys (including 2 from the crucial battleground of Virginia) gets us to similar conclusions:

• In Virginia, Rasmussen finds Obama getting 45% to McCain’s 44% - but with leaners it is McCain who inches ahead, 48% to 47%. The candidates’ favorability ratings, however, is not equal: 47% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Obama, versus 31% of McCain.
• Another poll from Virginia, this one released by Insider Advantage, finds the two candidates tied at 43%.

• In Nevada, McCain took back the lead he had given up last month and is now ahead 45% to 42% in Rasmussen’s latest poll (48% to 45% with leaners). Obama’s unfavorability rating is 51% - though McCain’s is also high, at 44%.

• In Washington, SUSA finds the race somewhat tightening, with Obama leading 51% to 44%. Obama led by 16% last month.

• In Kansas, finally, McCain keeps up a large lead in Rasmussen, 52% to 37% - 55% to 41% with leaners. McCain did lead by 20% last month.

All Virginia polls released since mid-June have the two candidates within 2%, and so do these two new surveys. No surprise, then, that Obama is looking so intent on contesting the Old Dominion, giving Mark Warner the keynote slot and putting Tim Kaine on his VP short list. The reason Virginia looks consistently better for Obama than North Carolina is also obvious, as the two states have roughly the same proportion of black voters but Virginia whites are more likely to vote Democratic than in other Southern states: Obama gets 40% of the white vote in the Insider Advantage poll. Even more so than in North Carolina, an uptick in black turnout could seal the day for the Illinois Senator.

Nevada, however, has got to be disappointing to Democrats. The Kerry campaign milked the Yucca Mountain story in 2004 but fell short and the state is looking to have stayed just where it was four years ago, with the two candidates exchanging the lead back-and-forth. However, there have been no Nevada polls other than Rasmussen’s since June, so it would be nice to have another pollster’s take on this contest.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

• In North Carolina’s Senate race (polling history), SUSA shows Elizabeth Dole back under 50%, leading Kay Hagan 46% to 41%. Dole led by 12% last month, but the difference might come from the presence in SUSA’s question of a libertarian candidate, Chris Cole, who gets 7%.

• In the state’s gubernatorial race (polling history), SUSA has Beverly Perdue holding on to a narrow lead, 47% to 44%. A libertarian candidate, Mike Munger, gets 5%.

• In Washington’s Governor race, SUSA confirms what nearly all polls have been showing - it’s a toss-up between Christine Gregoire, at 50%, and Dino Rossi, at 48%.

• In the Kansas Senate race, the seesaw continues in Rasmussen’s poll- after being up 9% and then 27%, Pat Roberts is now leading 55% to 36%.

• In AL-02, a Capital Survey Research Center poll finds Bobby Bright ahead of Jay Love 47% to 37%.

• In VA-05, finally, a SUSA poll has incumbent Rep. Goode crushing Democratic challenger 64% to 30%.

This is the third poll of AL-02 that has been released over the past week - and it is the second to find Bobby Bright with a 10% lead. The previous two surveys were conflicting internal polls, with both candidates finding themselves ahead (though Love’s poll showed him up by only 2%). In such situations, we are often left wishing an independent poll could be released to give us a better idea of where the race stands - but it is rare to actually be granted that wish when it comes to House races. Put together, these three polls confirm that AL-02 is one of the hottest targets for House Democrats, even though it is a district Bush won with more than 66% of the vote in 2004.

It is difficult to know what to make of SUSA’s North Carolina polls. On the one hand, PPP and Civitas recently showed Dole slipping back under 50%; on the other hand, her fall in this poll seems to have more to do with the inclusion of a libertarian candidate. It is unlikely that a third-party candidate would get such a good result come November and that seems to have skewed the results towards Dole a bit. The same appears to be true in the gubernatorial poll. That said, SUSA’s poll pits the Dole-Hagan showdown where we expect it to be: Dole is clearly the favorite, but Hagan is within striking distance and will receive a tremendous boost from the DSCC’s attack ads against Dole (more on that tomorrow).