Last month, the DCCC reserved millions of air time in a total of 51 districts, starting this fall. But that doesn’t mean that the Democrats’ very wealthy congressional committee has not already started spending on seats it believes could benefit from early investments. Over the past few days, the DCCC bought around $175,000 of radio ads in 10 districts: LA-06, NH-01, PA-10 are the three seats currently held by Democrats. ID-01, MI-07, MO-06, NM-01, NY-29, OH-15, and OH-16 are all seats the DCCC is looking to pick-up. The DCCC has also launched direct mail campaigns in IL-11 (bringing its total spending in this district to more than $80,000) and NJ-07.
It is difficult to look to much into the DCCC’s choices of which districts it is targeting with its radio ads, as this investment is a response to ads launched by the GOP-backing independent group Freedom’s Watch. However, it is interesting that some of the GOP-held districts on the list (starting with the two in which the DCCC is sending out direct mailers) are the most obvious targets of the 2008 cycle, those Democrats are the most confident they will pick-up. IL-11, NJ-07, NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16 are all open seats which Democrats have at least a 50:50 chance of winning. The quick spending pace in some of these districts might be an attempt to put them away early (IL-11, for instance).
What is particularly interesting about the DCCC’s expenditure in NH-01 is that Democrats listed Jeb Bradley as the candidate their ad will be criticizing. Jeb Bradley, the congressman who was defeated in 2006, is indeed running for his old seat back but he is facing a strong challenge by a more conservative candidate, John Stephen. That the DCCC is taking care of hitting Jeb Bradley is a reflection that (1) they are more worried about him and that (2) they expect him to win the Republican nomination.
While Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter is likely to face a tough race no matter who she faces, it looks like her chances would significantly improve if Stephen would to win the Republican nomination. A recent UNH poll showed Bradley leading Shea-Porter by 6% (a very dangerous place for an incumbent to be), while the Democrat outpaced Stephen by the same margin. While that can be explained by Bradley’s superior name recognition, the former congressman’s more moderate profile would help Republicans win in New Hampshire.
The September 9th primary could thus prove crucial to Shea-Porter’s survival. And while it would be an upset for Stephen to win his party’s nod, that has looked increasingly plausible in the past few days. First, state Treasurer Jenkins’s victory over former Rep. Ryun in KS-02 suggested that congressmen seeking their old posts back are not automatic shoo-ins for the November ballot. Second, the powerful and conservative New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Stephen in a strongly-worded editorial that blasted Bradley for his spending habits and praises Stephen for his fiscal conservatism: “If you want to see John Stephen get excited, ask him about wasteful government spending. He hates it the way most Red Sox fans hate the Yankees — with a genuine passion.”
The Union Leader prides itself for having political influence and writes front page editorials; they endorsed McCain early this fall and spent weeks blasting Mitt Romney - paving the way for McCain’s come-from-behind triumph. That they are endorsing Stephen a month before the primary suggests they are looking to use their influence to help him win.
Finally, in AL-02, I mentioned on Friday that Democratic candidate Bright had released an internal poll showing him leading 50% to 40%. His opponent Jay Love released an internal poll of his own over the week-end:
- Taken in mid-July by McLaughlin & Associates, Love’s poll has him narrowly ahead 41% to 39%. The poll also finds McCain leading Obama 55% to 30% in the district.
Two differences exist between these polls: The first is that Love’s pollster pushed undecideds far less than Bright’s pollster - so the campaigns think either that undecideds are more likely to break towards Bright or that he has a higher name-recognition that will be offset by Election Day. The second is that Bright’s poll was taken last week, whereas Love’s was taken a few days after his victory in the primary runoff and Love might have been benefiting from a primary bounce.
I like the ad hiting Jeb Bradley for another reason - it could hurt his ability to win the primary at all (see Davis hitting Riordan before the GOP primary a few years back in CA).
SPS, I’d be careful what I hope for. John Stephen IMO is a charlatan and accomplished little or nothing at the agency level, but he’s young and may bring a sense of rejuvenation to the beleaguered NH GOP, whereas Bradley is a bit shop-worn and reminiscent of the past GOP congressional failures. The U-L is ferocious in supporting Stephen which is going to help in the GOP primary.
While Manchester is Stephen’s home turf and its early, there are Stephen lawn signs all over the place, and that’s one of the traditional markers for a successful campaign up here.
If Stephen makes it past Bradley, Shea-Porter doesn’t have the kind of organizational depth and financial support that Hodes has in NH-02. This seat is definitely up for grabs.