The Olympics are approaching and the veepstakes speculation is reaching feverish pitch. That is somewhat paradoxical as some indicators over the past two days have been suggesting that both candidates are considering waiting a bit more to announce their picks after all and try to break through during the Olympics.
There is of course a clear risk to doing so: Any high-profile announcement could be drowned by news from China. But postponing the decision also makes sense for both candidates: Obama is planning on taking a week long break in Hawaii. Announcing his vice-presidential pick just before he departs would allow his running-mate to take center stage for a few day. As for McCain, he would be giving up a key weapon (more control of timing) if he were to hurry into a choice.
That said, other indicators suggest that Obama and McCain are very near to making a choice and that they have significantly narrowed their list. Sources in the McCain world have long been saying that the campaign has already completed a lot of its vetting and McCain has all the information to make up its mind whenever he wants. Yesterday, Obama met with most of his advisers and with his vetting team for more than 3 hours - quite an extended period of time to take off the campaign trail if it is not intended to resolve a number of issues and get closer to a decision.
More detailed speculation over the past 48 hours has concentrated on the Democratic side and on Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Not one but two articles were published in the past 24 hours - one yesterday afternoon in Politico and one this morning in the Washington Post - that described Kaine as being “very, very, very high on Obama’s short list” based on numerous interviews with people close to Obama’s campaign and members of Kaine’s entourage. Both Politico and The Post are well-sourced and well-connected and that they would both publish such an article within hours of each other speaks to the sure fact that Kaine is one of the finalists.
This morning, both Obama and Kaine were in Washington DC, prompting speculation that a meeting had been organized between the two Democrats. (Think about that: Obama had a three hour VP meeting yesterday and might have met with one of his top choices less than a day later.) Kaine was one of the earliest Obama endorsers, and did so long before Obama had really broken through in his match-up against Hillary Clinton. Kaine and Obama are not only personally close, but Kaine embodies as close to post-partisanship a management style as Obama could want.
However, both articles make it clear that Kaine’s being subjected to intense vetting means he has reached the final stages of the veepstakes, not that he is the only one there. While Politico has a few sources in hte Obama world, most of these leaks are coming from the Kaine camp, which explains why the stories are so fixated on one name. In fact, Marc Ambinder thinks that the outstanding level of buzz generated by leaks from the Kaine entourage are hurting the Virginia Governor compared to other contenders that aren’t leaking information. Politico’s report cites Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn; Marc Ambinder is hearing the most buzz about Kaine, Biden, Sebelius and Evan Bayh. This testifies to the stamp Obama wants to leave on the party, as all these names but Biden’s embody a similar post-partisanship positioning.
Of the top-tier of Democratic contenders, two names are missing in this latest round of speculation: Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton’s star is decidedly fading. It was always clear that Obama did not want to pick his former rival and that he would only do so if polls indicated he had not succeeded in capturing Clinton’s electorate. While he does still have some trouble securing the Democratic base and there are still signs of discontent between the two camps, the problems do not seem to be wide-ranging enough for Obama to be forced to do something he does not want to do.
Declarations made by Terry McAuliffe (as faithful a Clinton supporter as any) in recent days seemed to confirm that Clinton was not at the top of Obama’s list: McAuliffe declared Kaine would be his pick for VP and he suggested Clinton was planning on speaking Tuesday night at the convention - a day earlier than the running-mate will. The New York Times’s Adam Nagourney hardened the conventional wisdom yesterday with an article detailing the “mounting evidence” that Clinton is not being seriously considered by the Obama campaign.
In fact, the Obama campaign might need to prepare itself to not enjoy a bounce when it selects the Democratic nominee if he/she is not Hillary. Once Clinton supporters realize that their former champion will not be on the ballot, a small number might temporarily withdraw its support for Obama in anger. I am not suggesting that this would be a lasting move or that Obama stands to , but that the temporary effects of the first impression (which is what a bounce is, after all) might be less positive than they would otherwise be because of this.
On the Republican side, the conventional wisdom is still fixated on a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty and . That has been the consensus for many weeks now, and John Thune’s declaring a few days ago that he had not been asked to submit vetting documents shrunk the number of Republicans capable of contesting that even further (if Thune is telling the truth, that is). Over the past 48 hours, Pawlenty has gotten a lot more favorable press while Romney was hit this morning by a Washington Times article reiterating that a number of evangelicals are warning against a McCain-Romney ticket.
Of course, we already know that a Romney pick could lead many conservatives to grumble, but that is not a welcome reminder at this crucial time in the veepstakes. In fact, campaigns routinely float trial names around to see the type of reception it will get and how interest groups will react; the strongly negative reactions sparked by Ann Veneman’s name circulating, for instance, are bound to have an effect. In fact, a new name was just added to the Republican veepstakes: Fed Ex executive Fred Smith, whose name started circulating yesterday with odd timing. The perfect example of a trial balloon?
I dropped three names from the top-tier since yesterday (Thune, Edwards and Clinton) and added to the long-shot list. That gets us to the following new exhaustive list for Republicans:
- Top-tier: Crist, Portman, Pawlenty, Romney
- Second-tier: Fiorina, Jindal, Palin, Ridge, Sanford, Thune, Whitman
- Long shots: Bloomberg, Cantor, Cox, Graham, Huckabee, Hutchinson, Kasich, Lieberman, Perdue, Fred Smith, Snowe
And for Democrats:
- Top-tier: Bayh, Biden, Dodd, Kaine, Nunn, Reed, Sebelius
- Second-tier: Casey, Clark, Clinton, Dashle, Chet Edwards, John Edwards, Hagel, Rendell, Richardson,
- Long shots: Bloomberg, Jones, McCaskill, Napolitano, Bill Nelson, Schweitzer, Veneman, Warner
Most recent VP headlines:
NEWS FLASH–TED STEVENS INDICTED!
Check swingstate project.
I have been surprised by the persistance the PUMA crowd has had in their opposition to Obama. Because of that, Hillary would still be my choice for VP. I hope that Obama at least offers her the nomination because, honestly, those PUMA people scare me. (remember the rules committee meeting on May 31?)
Jim W, Ted Steven’s indictment has actually hurt Benigh chances of winning the Alaskan seat. Unlike the house race, no Republicans dared to challange Stevens, but they will now, and they will force Stevens to either quit his reelection campaign or defeat him in a primary, just as Young will likely be defeated by the Lt. Governor in the GOP House primary. A Republican with no ethnical problems, especially one who came from the Palin administration (althrough it is very unlikely Palin herself will challange Stevens) will instantly be at the VERY least a slight favorite in the Senate race. Benich would have an advantage in terms of being in the race longer and having of money, but Alaska is a strong GOP state and natural GOP lean will make any clean candiate the favorite.
On the VP stakes, Kaine in my opinion could present some problems because he is pro-life, and angering pro-choice voters, especially women who supported Clinton would be a very bad idea. However he did say that he wouldn’t change abortion law even if Roe vs Wade was overturned I believed so maybe he would be OK. Besides this, Kaine as well as Selbius would be good safe choices for Obama while Biden and Bayh would help alot on foreign policy but possibly overshadow Obama and course Biden has his problems with keeping his mouth shut.
Joe from NC, the PUMA voters are too little and the drawbacks of Clinton both in terms of the campaign and governing are too much to warrent her on the ticket. Most of Obama’s weakness among Clinton voters are among those who are undecided rather than those who say they are going to vote McCain. Those willing to vote McCain are probably going to vote McCain no matter what, while those who are undecided probably just need more convincing that Obama is supieror to John McCain, he can get those voters if he is smart enough and uses Hillary Clinton in a good way.
For McCain, the only real choices to me are either Rommney or Pawlenty. Crist just has too many problems with the Republican base and too little benefit while Portman has said he isn’t interested in the job. I think Pawlenty is almost a GOP version of Kaine, except that he brings a little less drawback but a little less benefit to McCain, just like Kaine, Pawlenty’s approval rating in Minnesota are around the 50’s range and will probably only add maybe 2 points in a state that Obama is likely to win with double digits or high single digits. Rommeny on the other hand would help McCain in terms of the ecnomny, and could probably help in Michigan and maybe New Hampshire, as well as get Mormons to vote in big numbers in Nevada. However, a major drawback would be that Rommeny would hurt McCain immensily with evangelicals, as many of them despite Rommeny party because of anti-Mormon bigotry, but also because of Rommney’s shifting positions on abortion and other social issues. McCain will win the evangelical vote regardless, but it will be by a much narrower margin than Bush and other Republians, and with Rommeny on the ticket, few evangelicals will be willing to volunteer for McCain and do all of the ground work needed in many swing states. Pawlenty is probably the better choice cause he is much safer but we have to see who McCain picks.
Joe: Unfortunately, I’m forced to agree. The idea of Clinton on the ticket really wilts my enthusiasm, but after seeing what the PUMA crowd is capable of, I’m afraid that any other choice could be a costly mistake.
Jaxx - I do not think Romney would help McCain much. His linkls to Michigan are very limited, his father 30 plus years ago was a popular Governor. That will not resonate much. Yes he won the Michigan primary but a) winning a primary doesn`t mean you will win the state (in that case you need Huckabee for the southern states) and b) he promised $billions for the auo industry and promised people their jobs would come back unlike McCain who was honest and said those jobs have gone for good.
Romney’s business experience will also be questioned and cost him in the MA senate race against Kennedy in the 1990’s. His business is to buy out firms, sack lots of workers then sell the firms on. Maybe not the best business to be associated with right now!
Romney will help with Utah, but then the GOP don`t really need help there!
I still think Clark and Montana Governor Schwitzer would be good choices for Obama. Not mentioned much but Clark has great military experience, the grassroots like him and he is associated with Clinton.
Jaxx Raxor,
The primary is in 3 weeks, and the GOP have six others challenging Stevens in the primary. I don’t believe the GOP can replace Stevens unless he wins the primary. The other 6 running in the primary are lightweights. At that time, let the fighting begin…
I think the name “Begich” is pretty powerful in Alaska, especially since Begich’s father was the US rep before Young. Also, there will be some coattails in Alaska with the Presidential election with Obama on the ticket.
Jaxx, I thought Joe was referring to something different - the capacity for die-hard PUMAs to raise a ruckus both inside and outside the Pepsi Center and generate lots of negative publicity that dilutes the convention impact.
I don’t think they’re very numerous but have no way of telling, and theya re extremely venomous. The Manchester (NH) U-L had a column today on the Clinton supporters and quoted one die-hard who said that MI and FL rsolutions were equivalent to a ‘gang-rape’ and referred to Obama as Dean’s ‘paper-boy’, ugly stuff and particularly so in a New England state where race hasn’t been a historical problem. You don’t reason with people like that.
Magnify that by a couple of hundred (remember the disruption Rules) and you’ve got a made-for-YouTube moment you’d rather forget.
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As for who would be most beneficial to Obama, and add the most to his candidacy, it seems to me that Clark is the one. Military experience, strong knowledge of foreign policy, ties with Clinton, Rhodes scholar… If Kaine is pro-life, and Obama picks Kaine, then heaven help him. He will have one tough Rowe to hoe.
As for McCain, I thought Crist would be picked for a long time, but Crist is pro-choice, is he not? Now it looks to me like it’s gonna be Pawlenty, and probably he will be named very soon, so as to get his name out into the public eye. Pawlenty brings very very little to the ticket, but he probably has few negatives as well. He makes a good sock puppet.
Dan Greenfield,
I am too tired to check this right now, but I really do not think Crist is pro-choice. Tom Ridge is and that by itself is costing him being in the top-tier. Crist would not be there if he was pro-choice. There are other reasons conservatives distrust him; I detailed some of them here a few months ago.
Crist is not Pro-choice (anymore), but he is sort of in favor of gay civil unions (I wonder why), so the religious right will still object to him.