In a campaign season in which most polling news tends to bring good news to Democrats, today’s delivery is remarkably strong for the McCain campaign and should serve as a reminder that, however much red states like North Carolina and Alaska have shifted blue, Obama is very far from having put away the states he needs to win the presidency:
- First, Obama is unable to open any sort of significant lead in Gallup and Rasmussen’s national tracking polls, despite predictions that he would benefit from the intense coverage of his foreign trip. The two candidates are tied at 46% in Rasmussen and Obama has a 3% lead (down from 6% yesterday) in Gallup in what is Gallup’s first poll entirely taken after Obama left the United States.
- In Ohio, Rasmussen contradicts yesterday’s PPP survey and finds McCain with a solid lead: 46% to 40%, 52% to 42% with leaners. That’s an improvement over the 1% edge he had last month. Obama’s favorability rating is only at 50%, compared to 57% for McCain.
- In New Hampshire, ARG revists last month’s finding that Obama had a large 12% lead and finds him ahead 47% to 45% thanks a slight lead among independent voters.
- In Florida, ARG also shows the numbers shifting in McCain’s direction. Contrary to the 5% lead Obama enjoyed last month, McCain now gets 47% to Obama’s 45%. The sample’s partisan breakdown is good for Democrats, but Obama only gets 73% of the Democratic vote. The two candidates are tied among Hispanics, suggesting the Cuban vote remains solidly anchored in the Republican camp.
- In Michigan, the reputable pollster EPIC-MRA finds a toss-up, with Obama narrowly besting McCain 43% to 41%, well within the survey’s margin of error. McCain was ahead by 4% in EPIC’s May poll, so this is progress for Obama, but it is also much closer to what other recent polls had been suggesting.
- Only in Colorado does Obama’s situation improve in Rasmussen’s latest poll. The Democrat leads 49% to 42% but only 50% to 47% with leaners included. Here again, Obama has a problem with his favorability rating: 48% of respondents view him unfavorably (31% very) versus 39% for McCain.
For McCain to be leading in a poll from Ohio and from Florida on the same day while also pulling into a toss-up in Michigan’s most reputable poll is certainly cause for Republicans to celebrate, particularly when both the FL and OH surveys show the Arizona Senator progressing by 7%. This also serves as a reminder that toss-up states (like Ohio) are defined not only by consistently tight results (as we have seen in New Hampshire yesterday and today) but also by the fact that there is no agreement between polls as to who is leading or by what margin.
What is especially problematic for the Obama campaign is today’s polls is the high unfavorable ratings he is suffering from, not only in Ohio but also in Colorado. In both of these states McCain does disproportionately well when leaners are pushed (gaining a net 4% in both states), suggesting that undecided voters have a surprisingly negative view of the Illinois Senator. This echoes the ceiling problem I talked about yesterday - but that discussion concerned Southern red states, not swing states in which Obama has to do well.
Obama has to go from the low-to-mid 40s to the high 40s in swing states. It is obvious that this will not be easy in the red states he is targeting; but his high unfavorables in states like Ohio and Colorado could be more damaging.
That said, Colorado remains a huge problem for McCain: he has never led in an independent Colorado poll and this is the day’s only poll in which he shows no progress. With Colorado and Iowa, Obama would only need two more electoral votes to reach the presidency - and a lot of states to get those from.
Down-the-ballot polls were also released today from two crucial Senate races Democrats are counting on:
- In New Hampshire’s Senate race, ARG finds Sen. Sununu drowning. After trailing by 14% in the last two polls of the group (a margin that we found in other institutes as well), Sununu is now distanced 58% to 36% by former Governor Jeanne Shaheen. That includes an 18% lead among independents.
- In Colorado’s Senate race, however, Rasmussen is back to finding a toss-up after two months of Udall expanding his lead. He is now ahead 47% to 43% for Republican Bob Schaffer, 49% to 46% with leaners.
Both parties can celebrate over these numbers. Some Republicans want to believe that John Sununu can catch up to Jeanne Shaheen and that his war chest will allow him to hit back in the coming months. Every poll that comes out finds the Democrat up double-digit, and by a smashing 22% in ARG’s latest poll. The GOP is increasingly entering Santorum-territory in this race, and there is little evidence that New Hampshire voters are willing to give any Republican but John McCain a chance.
On the other hand, Mark Udall has been unable to pull ahead for a year now despite predictions that it would be difficult for the GOP to hold on to this open seat. While polls in recent months have found Udall starting to inch ahead to a high-single digit lead, that is the least that we could expect given that Schaffer has been hit by controversies (including his connections to Jack Abramoff). And Rasmussen’s poll suggests that Udall has still been unable to open a comfortable lead.
Several reasons why McCain is doing so well:
1. Energy issue–McCain’s ads are working
2. New Yorker cover–it’s still sticking
3. Race–still a problem
4. Surge–it’s “working”–not really, the it’s the perception that counts.
5. Still a lot of Clinton holdouts.
Even though her unfavorables would still be be pretty high, Hillary Clinton would be up 5-7% over McCain.
Maybe Hillary would be higher at this point if she was the nominee instead of Obama, but its’ hard to know what type of scrunity she would have gotten. We don’t want tot forget that Clinton’s strength among democrats is balanced by her weakness with independnets and she would probalby be doing much worse than Obama is right now among these key groups. Not to mention that Republicans would be much more gun ho about defeating a Clinton than going after Obama. Obama’s weakness isn’t in GOP mobilzation but mainly in Clinton holdouts, which is where alot of his unfavorable ratings are coming from. It is true that Obama isn’t the strongest Democratic candidate, but Hillary Clinton wouldn’t have been the strongest either, or even just stronger than Obama over the long run. Remember that she ended the primary on a high note and Obama on a kinda of low note, which is why polls show her doing better, but it would fade fast if she had somehow become the nominee.
Today’s polls may be good for McCain but he still hasn’t polled ahead in the national polls yet (he only manages a tie) and like Taniel said he has been behind in Colorado ever since Obama got the nominatiation. So I say until a poll shows McCain ahead (even by just 1 point in national polls) I say that this election is still trending Democratic, as barely as it is.
I’m not too concerned about this “snapshot”. I expected McCain would close in the gap with Obama at some point of time. I also do not believe it will last. Obama did a helluva job in Iraq, and he just looks very presidential in his mannerisms and demeanor. McCain looks more and more like Bob Dole in 1996–a good and decent man that has a bad temper, the GOP base hates, and is too old. Dole caught up with Clinton on occassion, but that was 1996 and Clinton was the incumbent President.
I think Obama will beat Dole in November by a healthy margin. I think Obama will end up winning 330 electoral votes.
I think both polls are a little off. PPP usually is a bit more generous to Democrats than others and Rasmussen usually favors Republicans by a little bit. However, it is clear that Obama has not put away the state. This probably is due to the fact that McCain and his allied groups have been spending so much there and Obama has not.
Also, the offshore drilling issue has been used ingeniously by the Republicans. They took an issue that could easily be made to look like their fault and are attempting to make it look like its the Democrats’ fault. Obama will have to be clearer and more agressive in his attacks on McCain’s oil plan and do a better job of putting his plan out there.
Joe the issue of drilling should be a potent issue for Republicans because polls currently show strong appoval among voters for offshore drilling and drilling in ANWR, even among Democrats and liberals. The issue will be how potent it will be, and if it will turn back the horrible political enivorment Republicans are in right now.
Jaxx,
That’s the point I was trying to make. I was also saying that the high gas prices look like (and in my belief largely are) the fault of Bush and the Republicans. It shocked me that they have been able to make the gas prices look like the democrats fault. The dems however are wisely urging a crackdown on speculation in the oil market. They will have to make the case that this is the most effective route to the voters.
I’m in the minority who feel that Obama’s performance on tour is a mixed bag.
I think he’s muffed the surge issue. There is an argument that the Sunni Awakening in Al Anbar - combined with buying of Moqtada and his gangsters - really changed the equation and that it began before the surge was implemented, but he didn’t make it very clearly, and seemed to dodge the question entirely at the end. As someone (Jay Carney?) said tonight, drilling down beneath everything else, the voters don’t like a person who dodges responsibility and refuses to admit mistakes, which this resembles.
Also, I think he gave the impression that he is the decider, and the business with Petraeus where he says he wound up disagreeing with Petraeus and announced that it was his ultimate responsibility as a potential president to do so was unfortunate. It created the impression he was free-lancing on foreign policy despite his comment that we only have one president at a time, and it flies in the face of his earlier comment that he was going there to listen and not to talk.
I’m concerned by his persistently high unfavorables. We know what role that played in sinking Gore and Kerry. People may be dismayed by McCain’s policies and his chaotic memory for names, etc., but they don’t dislike him the way they’re beginning to dislike Obama. I’m uncomfortable with the way my candidate is comporting himself right now. We’re a long ways away from November. Hopefully, it’s my habitual pessimism compounded by too much caffeine today…..
Obama “disagreeing” with Petraeus is perfectly acceptable since Petraeus is the commander in Iraq and Obama as a future President has to see the big picture. It is like one school in a school distric saying we need $millions and millions and ignoring the needs of the other schools in the district. The school district leadership has to look at all the school. This what Obama is saying.
If we are going to defer to military types then just elect a General President and be done with it!
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