Campaign Diaries

The Democratic congressional committees have money, and they are ready to put it to good use. We have known for more than a year now that they would have a clear fundraising advantage over their Republican counterparts, but the continually widening gap remains a stunning reminder of how much the fundamentals favor congressional Democrats. Today, the June fundraising and cash on hand numbers of all four congressional were made public:

• On the Senate side, the DSCC raised $10.8 million in June and has $46.2 million of cash on hand. The NRSC raised $6 million in June and has $24.9 million of cash on hand.
• On the House side, the discrepancy is wider: the DCCC raised $10 million in June and has $54.7 million of cash on and, whereas the NRCC raised $6.1 million and only has $8.5 million left in the bank.

Considering how many House and Senate seats the GOP has to defend in the coming months, the meager totals reported by the NRCC is among the most worrisome metrics of the campaign season. As Democrats are already planning to spend millions on a large number of GOP-held seats, how will House Republicans defend themselves with only $8.5 million to send to the dozen of vulnerable incumbents, not to mention their candidates in open seats and the challengers trying to win Democratic seats? As the priority is usually given to incumbents, Republican candidates in the latter two categories are unlikely to receive much help from the national parties - one more reason to believe that most Republican open seats will be competitive this year.

As for the Senate field, the DSCC is already displaying formidable strength. Last week, the DSCC reserved up to $6 million of air time in North Carolina to boost Kay Hagan’s bid to unseat Elizabeth Dole. This week, they appear to be doing the same in Maine: they are reserving $5 million of fall ads to help Tom Allen’s candidacy against incumbent Susan Collins. That is a huge amount in Maine’s cheap media markets and a massive investment considering the number of voters. It is also stunning in that the DSCC has now reserved up to $11 million in what most people would consider the 9th and 10th targets on their pick-up list! Could there be better proof that Democrats are committed to expanding the map beyond what was thought possible? My next Senate rankings, which should be out tomorrow or Wednesday, will show the map continuing to shift towards Democrats.

The Maine investment will particularly welcome by the Allen campaign, not only because of the enormous potential $5 million worth of advertisements could have on this state but also because Susan Collins has displayed surprising resistance to the dismal national environment for her party. Except Rasmussen’s polls that find her under 50%, most polls have found Collins crushing her opponent. To make her vulnerable, Democrats need to tie her to President Bush and to her party label - and that would require a lot of ads to try and change her image.

Finally, Republicans can count on a number of outside groups that are committed to influencing the results of congressional elections. Freedom’s Watch spent significant sums in LA-06 and MS-01’s special elections and Club for Growth also has substantial investments to make for the candidates it endorses. In fact, Club for Growth dumped a large sum of $100,000 in Alaska’s House race last week. Sure, this money is meant to help Lieutenant Governor Parnell win the Republican primary against Representative Don Young, but that would have a direct impact on the general election:

If Parnell beats Young, AK-AL will go automatically go from “Lean takeover” to “Lean retention.” In fact, given Young’s money troubles and the fact that he now has two Republican opponents spending hundreds of thousands of dollars, the odds are increasing that Young will end up like the state’s former governor who finished third in the party’s primary in 2006 - and that would be the best news the GOP can hope for.