Three new presidential polls were released since Friday morning, two of which are from battleground states rated “toss-up” or “lean” in my latest ratings:
- In Virginia, Rasmussen finds the two candidates tied at 44%, with McCain leading by 1% when leaners are included. Last month, Obama got 45% to McCain’s 44%. The bad news for Obama is his favorability rating: 47% of respondents now have an unfavorable opinion of him (compared to 36% for McCain), including 31% who say their view is very unfavorable.
- In Alaska, Research 2000 has McCain maintaining a decent-size lead, 51% to 41%. That is up from a 49% to 42% lead two months ago.
- In Maine, finally, Obama’s lead is cut by more than half in the latest Rasmussen poll. Up 22% last month, Obama is now leading 46% to 36%. Remember that the state awards 2 of its electoral votes by congressional district, and the first district could be an opportunity for McCain.
Both parties are now up on air in Virginia, but that is not the case in Alaska where Obama has had the state’s airwaves to himself for about a month now. This raises the same question we asked about North Carolina on Thursday: Why are the numbers in those states remaining stable despite Obama’s organizing and marketing efforts? It seems almost heretical to ask such a question considering that it is already extraordinary for a Democratic candidate to reach 45% in North Carolina and the low 40s in Alaska, but since it is now clear that the Obama team is playing for the win in those states, we now have to look at those red states by considering Obama’s chances of victory.
The answer could be problematic: Obama might already be reaching his ceiling in those red states because of how enthusiastic Democrats are this year, which could make it difficult for him to continue progressing — at the very least, it will not be as easy a rise as it been up to now. Obama’s very high unfavorability rating in states like Virginia and North Carolina confirms that they aren’t many who aren’t voting for him but who could be convinced to do so.
That said, the Virginia numbers have been very encouraging for Obama for months, as he has been at least tied with McCain for all of 2008. There is no question that the result in Virginia will be tied to turnout and that the battle lines are already drawn: McCain needs to rely on strong voting patterns in the military areas and Obama will need to spend the next 3 months organizing Northern Virginia.
Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot races:
- Rasmussen’s poll from Maine’s Senate race finds Susan Collins leading 49% to 42% — the same margin she led by last month.
- In Alaska’s Senate race, Research 2000 finds Mark Begich leading 47% to 45%, slightly down from a 48% to 43% lead last month and back in the margin of error.
- In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Beverly Perdue is up 43% to 40% in Civitas’s new poll, a stable margin compared to their June survey.
- Finally, in Alaska’s House race, Ethan Berkowitz leads Republican incumbent Don Young 51% to 40%, compared to a 10% margin last month.
- Finally, the California Field Poll finds Proposition 8 - the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage - losing 51% to 42%.
Interestingly, the first four polls polls show very stable margins from the institutes’ previous polls. The largest movement consists of Begich losing 3%, which suggests that we have entered a period of relative stability in congressional politics.
A few quick notes, as usual, about some of these races. First, the numbers of the Alaska House race are pretty much worthless until we know whether the GOP will renominate Don Young. With 2 challengers spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and helped by outside group, Young’s place on the general election ballot hangs by a thread and it could be much more difficult for Berkowitz to win if he is facing a Republican not plagued by scandals.
In Maine’s Senate race, meanwhile, Collins has been enjoying huge leads for months against a candidate Democrats were touting from day one. Rasmussen is the only institute to have shown single-digit races and Collins under 50%, and we are still awaiting confirmation from other polls. As the presidential race heats up and the electorate becomes more polarized, Allen will try to link Collins to her party label; for now, his efforts have not been successful.
Finally, the rule of thumb about California proposition is that the yes vote has to start substantially ahead to have a chance at winning at the polls in November as undecided voters tend to break heavily towards a no vote. That is usually due to propositions seeming confusing, and that factor might be reduced on the relatively simple issue on gay marriage, but the poll still bring good news to proponents of gay marriage.
I’ve said before I think Obama is wasting his money in these red states. If he wins them there’s no way he hasn’t won the election already in other states. It will help Hagan and Begich but Obama should make sure HE wins before thinking of others. I’m saying that even though I’m very excited about beating Stevens.
I would really like to see some Ohio polls. I am interested to see if Obama has recovered among Hillary supporters there
Indeed, it is very irritating to have to list the week’s 10th poll from Washington when we have so few polls from Ohio or Pennsylvania (no polls from there for a whole month now!).
Yeah we do need more polls from Ohio.
Tatina Obama’s spending in states like Alaska is not a waste if he has alot of extra spending money. Remember that like many things, spending has dimishing returns. Its probably better for Obama’s chances if he spends his extra money in Alaska and not just put it all into Ohio for example.
The Virginia poll is worrisome for Obama but he is still very competive here so thats good news for him and bad news for McCain. I do feel that Virginia will eventually go to McCain by the smallest of margins if only because McCain is more popular in Obama’s base of Northern Virginia than Obama is in McCains base in the rest of Virginia. Obama needs to win northern Virginia by huge margins if he wants to pull of a win, but “maverick” McCain appeal to moderate voters plus the absolute despise that many conservative Virginians have for Obama (that is probably what makes up 90% of those who see Obama unfavorably) will give Obama a close loss in Virginia.
On the Maine poll we really need to see more consistency before Obama has to worry about losing a electoral vote in Main. Both the districts in Maine are Democratic leaning and the first is about +4 Dem lean and the second +6 leaning, not really a big difference. I could say that maybe if u break it down Obama is winning the first by 2-5 points but we don’t know for sure as Rasmussen didn’t break down the vote by CD. I don’t think McCain will win this district and get a electoral vote if only cause he doesn’t have the money nor the interst to capitalize on it, espeically for just one measly EV. If the Northeast becomes better for McCain, he will go after New Hampshire first and then New Jersey and then maybe even Conneicut before he starts spending money to win in Maine’s 1st.
In Calfornia, I think that Arnold’s dissapproval of the constitutional ban has doomed the amendment from passing because as a Republican he gives the green light for other moderate Republicans to not vote for the amendment, and therefore conservatives have no real leader to champion thier cause to end gay marriage. If the amemdent fails to pass, it would only the second since Arizona, and the first in which people have actually voted to keep Gay Marriage in thier state (in Arizona it is still illegal by just normal law). As Calfornia is a trend setter I hope it spreads to other states, like my home state of Maryland.
Jaxx Raxor,
I mostly agree with your prediction about Virginia, but I think Mark Warner could help Obama win there. Warner looks sure to win the senate race by a landslide and, while many Virginians will split the ticket, the major enthusiasm for Warner could cause a few independents to swing for Obama, and given how competitive Obama is, they could swing the state his way.
Of course, that is probably the best case scenario for him, but it is a possibility, and one that could become more likely if the two campaign together.
I have done a statistical comparison of Obama in May/June 2008 to Kerry May/June 2004, the results from the battleground states are here at my blog.
Similar story for McCain in May/June 2008 to Bush May/June 2004, the results from the “SAFE” GOP states are here.
Coming Tuesday: Obama 2008 vs. Kerry 2004 - SAFE DEM states.
The numbers and commentary are worth the click. :) :)
Mark, thanks for your blog!
Those stats are very interesting and, as an Obama supporter, inspiring. For so long I’ve been hearing people try to compare Obama being in the lead with the ‘88 race and I knew it didn’t make sense.
Of course, we won’t know what will happen on November fourth until November fourth, but your statements are fresh and mature.