Campaign Diaries

A number of polls were released today along the Rasmussen North Carolina Senate poll I mentioned earlier today. No big surprises in the day’s 5 state presidential polls, but that’s only because we are now getting used to what just three months ago would have seemed improbable, namely that North Carolina is a battleground state:

• Just two days after SUSA found the two presidential candidates within 5% in North Carolina, it is Rasmussen’s turn to confirm the tightness of the race, with McCain leading 45% to 42% (48% to 45% with leaners). Obama has room to grow among registered Democrats, as he only gets 69% of their vote.

This is the fourth straight Rasmussen poll finding a similar result. In April, the two candidates were tied; McCain led by 3% in May and 2% in June. It is therefore time to stop expressing amazement at such competitive results (which I still do) and talk about North Carolina as we would of any battleground state. While Obama certainly does not need the state’s 15 electoral votes to reach an electoral college majority (is there an argument to be made that Obama could lose VA but win NC?), he is certainly campaigning here actively and has been running ads in the state — something the McCain campaign has not been doing. And remember that Obama ads were also saturating the airwaves in late April and early May, in the run-up to the primary.

But despite having the state’s airwaves to himself, Obama’s numbers have not moved much since Rasmussen’s April poll. Nor had they in yesterday’s SUSA poll. This leads to an essential question: What is Obama’s ceiling in the deep red states he is putting in play and in the Southern states in particular? 52% of respondents in this poll have a favorable view of him, but the fact that Obama is only getting 69% of registered Democrats in Rasmussen’s survey and that he was getting 31% of the white vote in yesterday’s SUSA poll makes it clear that he will have to do better among the South’s white registered Democrats (Hillary Clinton’s primary constituency) to pull an upset in states like North Carolina.

The day’s other presidential polls are:

• In Nevada, Obama is ahead within the margin of error in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 42% to 40%. Last month, McCain led by 3%. Obama was last ahead in March.

• In Arkansas, Rasmussen finds McCain leading 47% to 37% (up one from last month), 52% to 39% with leaners. Obama’s favorability rating is a weak 45%, versus 53% unfavorable.

• A Strategic Vision poll of New Jersey shows Obama leading 47% to 38%.

• Finally, in Washington, SUSA finds Obama crushing McCain 55% to 39%.

Of these states, Nevada is naturally the most interesting since it is the only state here I consider a toss-up. Polls here have been zigzagging back and forth between Obama and McCain, and it looks like this state will remain tight, just as did four years ago. Of the three Southwestern battleground states, it is the most likely to remain in Republican hands, but that does not mean that it is not highly competitive and the news I mentioned earlier this week that Democrats now had a 6% registration edge in the state (whereas they trailed by 1% in 04) will be a huge boost to Obama.

Finally, a wave of down-the-ballot races — including three House internals, all currently held by Republicans:

• SUSA finds a tight gubernatorial race in Washington, as expected. Christine Gregoire narrowly leads Dino Rossi 49% to 46%.

• In VA-11, an internal poll released by the Connolly campaign finds the Democrat crushing his opponent Keith Fimian… 52% to 21%!

• In OH-01, an internal poll for the Chabot campaign finds the Republican incumbent ahead of his challenger, state Rep. Driehaud, 50% to 37%.

• In NJ-07, finally, an internal poll for the campaign of Leonard Lance finds the Republican leading his Democratic opponent Linda Stender 42% to 35%.

Naturally, the internal polls should all be taken with great caution and any finding has to be confirmed by independent surveys. A few words about these surveys, however: VA-11 is one of the two or three most vulnerable GOP-held seats. It is an open seat in blue-trending territory and the GOP candidate is not top-tier. There is no doubt that Connolly is the heavy favorite. That said, the numbers will surely be tighter: Connolly is well-known whereas Fimian is largely unknown — though he can self-fund his race and will be sure to increase his numbers once he starts running ads.

The same is true in OH-01: The margin will tighten once the campaign heats up and voters get to know Driehaud, who only represents one part of the district. Chabot is one of the survivors of the 2006 cycle, and he is preparing himself for as close a race as he fought two years ago; that he is only at 50% should also be cause for worry. The real surprise comes from NJ-07: This is a blue-leaning open seat with a strong Democratic candidate who barely lost two years ago. Republicans are more satisfied with their candidate here, however, than in the state’s other open seat (NJ-03). Is this a sign that they are right and Democrats should not underestimate Lance’s strength? The poll is certainly counter-intuitive, but it is up to the Stender campaign to release a poll to disprove it. The problem with House races is that there are too few independent polls to be able to judge the credibility of internal polls.