The Senate map has long been a bright spot for Democrats. With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans and with New Hampshire heading in the same direction, there are already 3 Republican seats that look like they will change hands with little competition. Add to that a number of Democratic targets that are sure to be hot battlegrounds (Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota, Oregon and Mississippi), and that is already eight seats Democrats are already heavily targeting and that no one would be surprised to see turn-over.
But Democrats are hungry for more. A 60-seat Senate majority has always been a long shot for Democrats, but once the idea was thrown on the table, it became too tantalizing for them to not think about. And as it became clear that 2008 will be a great Democratic year, the possibility of a clean sweep of the eight seats listed above became credible. That would mean that holding on to Louisiana and adding just one (or two, if Joe Lieberman is thrown out of the caucus) seat would get Dems to 60!
As a result, the DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, with an eye on: Maine, North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas (and to a lesser degree NE, ID, KS and even OK where the DSCC has sent some staffers). After all, they know that they might not have such a golden opportunity for massive congressional gains for a while, particularly if the party regains the White House in November.
Of these races, the DSCC has made a clear choice: North Carolina has the most potential, and the race will be treated accordingly. Chuck Schumer has been including the state in the list of top targets for many weeks now and today, the Raleigh News Observer revealed that the DSCC had reserved up air time for up to $6 million in advertising starting mid-September. This is the same strategy that the DCCC is using in a number of House races: by reserving early in potentially expensive races, committees can get a discount. Add to this the fact that Hagan is holding her own in fundraising (with more than $1 million of cash-in-hand compared to $2.7 million for Dole) and it is clear that Democrats are committed to making a significant financial investment in this state.
The marked preference for North Carolina over Maine is surprising to the extent that Maine was originally believed to be one of the Democrats’ best opportunity. Their candidate, Rep. Allen, was highly touted whereas Kay Hagan, the North Carolina candidate, was recruited at the last minute when more high-profile candidates refused to run. Yet, a series of polls released in May found Hagan enjoying a stunning post-primary bounce to almost tie Elizabeth Dole. Since then, the Republican unleashed a big advertisement campaign that has pushed her numbers upwards. Just yesterday, SUSA released a poll that found Dole leading by 12%, up 8% from her lead in May. Today, Rasmussen confirms Dole’s recovery:
- The incumbent leads Hagan 53% to 41%, compared to a 53-39 advantage last month and a 48-47 deficit in May. Dole’s favorability rating is 61%, compared to 53% for Hagan, though the Democrat is also less known than her opponent.
What the (consistently tight) May numbers did, however, is show that there was an opening here, that Dole’s support is shallow and that Hagan has potential. It took an ad campaign by Dole to bump her up again — and she is still barely above 51%. That suggests that Dole is still not very well defined nor very entrenched and that new information has a big impact on voters, which is exactly why the DSCC is willing to commit as much as $6 million to what is at best their 9th best pick-up chance (think about that for a moment).
That North Carolina is now competitive at the presidential level will only heighten Hagan’s chances. Obama is organizing in this state and he is buying running ads. For now, the GOP is not doing much in response in a state that Republicans have not had to worry about much in past cycles. This means that Hagan will be able to rely on Obama’s turnout machine and on an increase in black turnout that many are predicting. That also surely influenced the DSCC’s decision to trust that Hagan really can make this race competitive.
I would love to see Dole go down, but I don’t think it will happen. Republicans here feel she is the heir of Jesse Helms, and especially with his death, they will be voting for her in full force. NC Dems don’t like her, but we don’t hate her with the passion we had against Helms. Independents don’t particularly like her, but because she is incumbent, most seem to support her.
I think she can be beaten if it is pointed out consistently that she has voted with Bush 98% of the time. She has been very slow and weak on NC specific issues such as the offshore landing strip the Navy wanted and is unpopular in Eastern NC. I think a good Obama showing will certainly help and will ensure the GOP and putting money into NC rather than OH, CO etc. Also Obama advertising in NC will cross the border into VA so he gets 21 for 1.
I think that Eastern NC has problems with Dole, and just like Guy said, Hagen has a chance to beat her. However, I would say it will take a lot of effort. NC is still a culturally conservative state, although less conservative than 10 years ago with the new flux of residents coming from all over the country (and world).
I think Hagen is a better candidate than Erskine Bowles, but she is not as well known. After all, Erskine was closely associated to Bill Clinton, who was not a well-liked figure in NC. Right now I would say that Dole will win with a margin of around 5-7%.
Jim W - you may be right Hagan is more popular than Bowles. Bowles lost by only 3-4% each time he ran so Hagan only has to improve a little in a Democratic year. It is doable.
The NC governors race is also very close - shows NC is becoming more of a swing state, give it to 2012/2016before it really become one like VA.
To be fair, North Carolina Democrats have always been strong at the state level and they have controlled the governorship for a while. Also, both of Bowles’s races were in very Republican years (2002 and 2004). The cycle’s GOP-lean was accentuated in the South (remember how the GOP sweeped the Southern open seats in 04). Bowles would probably have beaten Burr in most other years.
One correction, Bowles lost to Dole by a 10 point margin.
Also, I think Burr should be far more vulnerable than Dole. He is almost as obnoxious about his ideaology as Helms was, but he doesn’t have Helms’s ruthless campaign skills.
Taniel,
Democrats are strong on the national level in NC, but at the same time the Dems have only elected 2 democrats as senators since 1974, and both only served 1 term (Sanford, Edwards).