Campaign Diaries

After yesterday’s flurry of state polls, the main presidential survey of the day comes from Quinnipiac’s national numbers: Obama leads 50% to McCain’s 41% based on a 19% advantage among women and a 94% to 1% lead among African-Americans. This is a larger lead than we have seen in the past few national polls.While McCain isn’t expected to do well among black voters, getting an abysmal 1% would be a catastrophe for him in a number of states.

[Update: Two new national polls were released late afternoon:

• Washington Post/ABC: Obama leads 50% to 42% among registered voters. Among all adults, Obama leads by 12%; among likely voters, he is up 49% to 46%. The poll identifies Obama's weakness as foreign affairs, as 63% of voters think McCain has a better knowledge of world affairs, versus 26% for Obama. They also trust McCain more to handle a major crisis.
• New York Times/CBS: Obama leads 45% to 39%. This poll explored racial differences in public opinion, finding for instance that only 34% of whites think race relations are in bad shape, versus 60% of blacks. And the poll finds that only 30% and 24% of whites have a favorable opinion of Barack and of Michelle.]

A key finding in the Quinnipiac poll is that Obama and McCain have the same lead among registered Democrats and registered Republicans, respectively. Among independents, the two are tied at 44%. Yet, Obama has a large lead. What does that tell us? What I have been saying quite often by now: The shifts in partisan identification means that all Obama needs to do is secure his Democratic base and not fall too far behind among independents — a key difference with 2004 and the reason moving to the center seems to me like a strategic blunder.

Quinnipiac also finds that Obama leads 57% to 35% in blue states (those that voted for Kerry by more than 5% in 2004) though McCain is only up 47% to 44% in red states. In states in which the election was within 5% four years ago, Obama crushes his rival 50% to 39%. This confirms what we have been seeing over the past few weeks at the state level: the epicenter of the electoral college battle is moving in red territory, with marginally blue states looking solid for Obama and marginally red states looking like true battlegrounds.

Case-in-point in today’s PPP poll from South Carolina, one of the most solidly red states of the South:

• McCain leads Obama 45% to 39%, with 5% for Bob Barr. Obama’s lead among black voters is 77% to 10% and he can expect to increase that share.

Yes, summer polls are probably overstating Barr’s support, making McCain look weaker than he ought to be. But there is no question that a single-digit lead in South Carolina is disturbing news for the Republican. After all, while Demcrats entertain hopes of flipping VA, NC and perhaps even GA and (some dream) MS, South Carolina just seems to be even more out-of-reach. Can Obama’s campaign force McCain to be this much on the defensive?

Also note a fun Rasmussen poll that was released today that pits Obama and McCain against others. While Obama leads McCain by only 2%, he would lead Bush 54% to 34%, which is not surprising but still shocking. He also leads Romney by 8% and Huckabee by 11%. As for McCain, he would fare more poorly against other Dems: Clinton leads by 8% and Gore by 7%.

The day’s other polls come from congressional and gubernatorial races:

• In the Colorado Senate race, PPP found Mark Udall leading Bob Schaffer 47% to 38%.

• In the Louisiana Senate race, Rasmussen shows Mary Landrieu with a narrow lead over John Kennedy, 51% to 45%. That’s an improvement for Landrieu over last month, when she was ahead 47% to 44%.

• In Missouri’s gubernatorial race, Jay Nixon shows no sign of weakening as he leads his Republican competitors 52% to 35% (against Hulshof) and 53% to 34% (against Steelman).

• And in Washington’s gubernatorial race, Rasmussen finds incumbent Christine Gregoire leading Dino Rossi 49% to 43%.
• Update: As a commenter amicably points out, the Rossi campaign released an internal poll conducted by Moore Information that has the two candidates tied at 45%.

• And in Michigan’s uncompetitive Senate race, Carl Levin still crushes his opponent. In South Carolina, Lindsay Graham is 22% ahead of his opponent, a “Democrat” who seems to be much more of a Republican (literally).

None of these results are surprising: In Colorado, Udall has pulled ahead and other institutes have found him leading by the same 9-10% margin. Louisiana’s race promises to remain tight to the end but Landrieu remains ahead — albeit by consistently narrow margins. The most recent poll, for instance, found her down to a 6% lead, the same result as Rasmussen. Democrats should at least be reassured that Kennedy is not an unknown and thus should has less room to grow than the average challenger.

As for the gubernatorial races, Nixon is now regularly ahead by very significant margins because of a combination of an intense GOP primary and of the Democratic fundamentals of the year that make open seats that ought to be toss-up lean blue from the get-go. And Washington’s race remains tight: not much has changed since 2004 but Gregoire’s party identification and the power of incumbency give Gregoire an advantage.

Finally, two House polls were released yesterday — but they were both internal polls, so take them with a grain of salt:

• In PA-03, an internal poll for the Democratic candidate Kathy Dahlkemper shows her leading incumbent Phil English 41% to 40%.

• In OH-16, an internal poll for the Republican candidate Kirk Schuring finds him leading Democrat John Boccieri 40% to 34%.

Both set of numbers go against the conventional wisdom. While Rep. English is believed to be vulnerable in a swing district, his district is rarely included in the top tier of House races. If Dahlkemper has already fored English in a toss-up, it could be the beginning of the end for House Republicans. As for OH-16, this open seat is generally believed to be leaning Democratic: It is a tight district and Boccieri is one of the Republican’s top recruits. The fact that undecideds have not been pushed that much helps Schuring here and is the mark of the poll having been taken for his campaign: The Democrats’ strength in 2006 was that a large number of independents were behaving as Democrats, an effect that is muted when a poll keeps such a large number of undecideds .