Campaign Diaries

In my most recent presidential ratings, I moved Missouri from the toss-up to the lean McCain column to suggest that the GOP has a slight edge here though the Show Me State remains very competitive. Today, two polls found a slight edge for John McCain:

• In Rasmussen’s poll, McCain recovers from a 1% deficit in early June to take a 47% to 42% lead — the same trend as in SUSA’s last poll.
• McCain’s favorability rating is much stronger than Obama’s: 58-43 versus 50-49.

• In PPP (which is becoming quite a prolific pollster), McCain is leading 49% to 46%.

Two other presidential polls were released today:

• In New Jersey, Rasmussen finds the race tightening a bit since the June poll. Obama now leads 44% to 39%. Here again, McCain’s favorability rating is stronger — and he only has 38% unfovarability rating!

• In Alabama, a new survey finds McCain leading by 13%, 49% to 36%. While comfortable, this is still half of the margin Bush won by in 2004.

Whatever New Jersey polls say, and even if McCain trails by as small a margin as he leads by in Missouri, it is almost certain that the latter will be hotly contested and that the former will not be a particularly hot battleground state. The GOP wasted millions in New Jersey in 04 and 06, and, despite McCain’s belief that he can appeal to independent voters, his campaign is unlikely to go in the state’s expensive media markets unless it has some very credible evidence that it is worth the effort. Also, consider that Obama often leads by much higher margins in the Garden State (a poll found him up by 16% just last week), whereas Missouri is almost always close.

Moving on to down-the-ballot races, a number of interesting polls were released:

• In New Jersey, Rasmussen finds Sen. Lautenberg leading his Republican challenger 49% to 36%. Just last month Rasmussen shocked us by finding the margin down to 1% — though that appeared to be an outlier.

• In Missouri, a number of polls had found Jay Nixon with a big lead over his competitors. Two polls out today suggest the margin is smaller than expected. For Rasmussen, Nixon leads Rep. Kenny Hulshof 49% to 38% and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman 46% to 37%. He led by more than 20% last month.
• PPP’s survey finds even tighter margins, 10% and 5%.

• Finally, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research released an internal poll for the Heinrich campaign in NM-01, one of the hottest House races of the cycle. It shows Martin Heinrich leading Darren White 47% to 44% — within the poll’s margin of error.

As Missouri’s gubernatorial primary approaches, the two Republican candidates have been airing ads and increasing their campaigning rhythm, so it is not surprising to see them reduce the gap. That they are still trailing by such a large margin is a bad sign for their chances to keep the gubernatorial mansion.

As for NM-01, it was one of the Democrats’ biggest heartbreaks in 2006 when Rep. Heather Wilson barely survived. But Wilson’s political career has since then ended, as the Republican congresswoman relinquished her Dem-leaning seat to run for Senate… and lost the primary last month. White is as strong a candidate the GOP could have found in the district, and that might have been enough in most cycles. But in a wave election like 2008 is shaping to be, it is hard for even the strongest candidates to overcome their district’s fundamentals.