Campaign Diaries

It is telling of the difficulties Republicans are facing that they have to worry about Alabama. The Montgomery Advertiser published an article today that examined the possibility that Democrats could gain a majority in the state’s delegation. To do so, they would have to successfully defend a difficult open seat (AL-05) and conquer two GOP-held seats (AL-02 and AL-03). Ironically, AL-03 is much more Democratic than AL-02 (Bush won the former with 58% and the latter with… 67%) but it is AL-02 that is generating the most buzz: Democrats are touting the candidacy of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, a candidate so conservative that Republicans were trying to recruit him to run under their own party banner.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s road is getting tougher in AZ-08, where freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is running for re-election against Republican state Senator Tim Bee. The GOP incumbent who retired in 2006, Jim Kolbe, grabbed quite a few headlines last weeks when he withdrew his support from his party’s current candidate. While Kolbe provided no explanation for his move, it is probably due to Bee’s casting the last and decisive vote in favor of placing an anti-gay marriage amendment on the November ballot. Kolbe, who was one of the only openly gay congressmen, was sure to have been disappointed by Bee’s prominent role in that vote.

If he does not return to the Republican fold, Kolbe’s absence will be noticed and commented on at length in the coming months. It will hamper Bee’s efforts to reclaim the seat. Kolbe’s moderate profile allowed him to remain popular in this somewhat swing district and his refusal to stand by Bee will help Giffords’s efforts to paint the Republican as too conservative for the region. (As a side to the story, not that Arizona remains the only state to ever have voted down an anti-gay marriage amendment, back in 2006).

In NY-13, finally, it looks increasingly certain that Mike McMahon will pick-up the seat come November, completing a Democratic take-over of all of New York City’s seats. Staten Island Republicans have still not settled on a candidate and seem unable to do so after quite literally all their choices declined to run one after the other. Former GOP Rep. Guy Molinari admits to TPM that it looks likely that McMahon will emerge the victor and confirms that current discussions are focused on whether businessman Paul Atanasio (who is registered conservative, not Republican!) would be an acceptable choice. In fact, it looks like there is a serious split between the Brooklyn GOP and the Staten Island GOP — and Republicans only have a few days left to collect signatures to have a candidate placed on the ballot!

To finish this House round-up with some exciting (and rare, since House contests are not often polled) polling data , Bendixen & Associates released the results of three House races in South Florida:

• In FL-18, GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is comfortably ahead of Annette Taddeo, 51% to 38%.
  
• In FL-21, GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart narrowly leads Raul Martinez 41% to 37%.
• In FL-25, GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart narrowly leads Joe Garcia 44% to 39%.

The Diaz-Balart brothers have been targeted by Democrats for a few months now: Raul Martinez and Joe Garcia are two very strong candidates that could give the GOP incumbents the most difficult re-election campaign of their careers. Yet, it remains unexpected to see both of them struggling this much, as both is under 50% — a vulnerability point for any incumbent. Ros-Lehtinen appears much more protected than her two South Florida colleagues, even though Taddeo’s name recognition is certainly inferior to Martinez and Garcia’s.