We have known for months that the DCCC’s massive financial advantage would have a dramatic impact on this year’s House battle. We got our first taste of this dynamic when Democrats forced the RNCC to spend millions defending four long-shot open seats (Democrats won three of them) whereas the GOP was unable to help their highly-touted recruit in IN-07 in March. Now, we got another proof that Democrats will put their lead of $40 million (!) to use. Last week, the DCCC reserved more than $4 million of air time to be used in the fall:
- $2.1 million in the NYC market (which covers NY-13)
- $1.2 million in the Portland market (which covers OR-05)
- $600K in the Denver market (which covers CO-4)
These markets are expensive (particularly the NYC one), and by reserving time early the DCCC can get a discounted rate. The RNCC cannot follow the DCCC here, since they only have about $6 million in the bank right now and cannot afford to just spend it away right now. But, you might ask, why would the DCCC spend any money on NY-13 when the race looks like a sure-winner for Democrats already and even in OR-05, where the abortion scandal hitting the GOP nominee makes it a difficult win for Republicans? This money can be refunded if the DCCC chooses to not run these advertisements after all because the races no longer look competitive in a few months.
Even if the networks might impose a small penalty, the DCCC will have shown its determination to winning these three seats in the process, perhaps scaring away potential opponents in Staten Island (where Republicans still have found no challenger at all willing to defend the last GOP-held seat in New York City). It will also show that no seat is beyond targeting for Democrats this year, no matter how expensive an advertising campaign might be.
More troubling news for Republicans in Washington state, where new election rules allow candidates to choose what party label will appear next to their name. TPM reports that two major candidates are shying away from the “Republican” label and choosing to associate with more unconventional appellations. Dino Rossi, running for governor, will write “GOP party” next to his name, while Curt Fackler, a county chairman for Republicans, will run for insurance commissioner with no party label! This will surely hurt other Republicans on the ballot — including John McCain, who already has to battle in neighboring Oregon with the state’s Senator Gordon Smith touting his bipartisan proximity to Barack Obama.
Meanwhile, in Kansas’s Senate race, Senator Pat Roberts shows that he is taking no chances. Barely on the radar screen until a few weeks ago, this contest became potentially interesting when a few polls in recent weeks have shown Roberts holding a smaller lead than expected against former Rep. Slaterry. But Roberts is now airing his third ad, touting his suport for the airline industry.
Finally, in OH-02, a new internal poll for Victoria Wulsin suggests a competitive race with a sure edge for Rep. Schmidt:
- Jean Schmidt leads Wulsin 41% to 33%. Confirming Schmidt’s well-known unpopularity is her approval rating, which is a dismal 33%.
While it’s good for a challenger to hold an incumbent under 50%, two factors should tamper Democratic enthusiasm here: (1) this is an internal poll and (2) Wulsin is already known as this is a rematch of the 2006 battle, which Schmidt won 51% to 49%. She has gotten more entrenched over the past 1.5 years, making her more difficult to beat.
Also look at New Jersey’s 7th district, which is an open seat gerrymandered to be heavily Republican. The DCCC made Democrat Linda Stender a top tier candidate this year. Two years ago, she came within 1% of defeating the incumbent (who outspent her 4-to-1), who is retiring at age 37 to avoid a rematch.
For over a decade, NJ-7 was leaning or safe GOP, now it’s a tossup, with thousands of new Democratic registrations from the February primary. The GOP candidate is a well-respected State Senator who is financed by big pharma and a handful of multimillionaires.
I know that NJ-17 was gerrmandered to be more GOP leaning but even after that it was considered the most competive district in NJ so I’m not sure that the weakness of the GOP caused the district to turn from “heavily” republican to swing.
In Washington, Dino Rossi’s decision to put “GOP Party” instead of Reupublican Party to me is an extreme sign of weakness. Gregoire is the weakest out of all of the Democratic incumbents in the Governor’s race, and for Rossi to do this despite being so close in the polls shows that even he is worried about being called a Republican.
Also, on OH-02, I do think that Schmit is being entrenched. Despite her extreme popularity, her district has a strong Republican lean and Wulsin would probably be to liberal for the district in neutral cycles. I think that if the Democrats really want to take her our that in the next cycle the Democrats will have to choose a conservative Democrat who better fits the district’s profile.
Jersey Bob,
No one here has forgotten about NJ-07. It is listed in the toss-up list in my latest House ratings.
How much did Dino Rossi pay to get himself listed first on the August ballot?
He is sure using every trick in the book to get votes–this is playing dirty! This clearly gathers votes from those who choose to just check whoever is listed first.
The incumbent should have been listed first!
At the very least, candidates should have been listed alphabetically!