Campaign Diaries

It is striking that polls from traditionally red states like Alaska, North Carolina, Virginia and Texas consistently find dramatic improvements for Barack Obama over the results of Al Gore and John Kerry, but there is no measurable improvement in many of the states that were already battlegrounds in 2004: match-ups in Missouri, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and even Iowa result in margins that are regularly within the margin of error and are statistically indistinguishable from John Kerry’s showings. This asymmetry has led to the dilemma of this early campaign:

Obama is dramatically expanding the map, putting states in play that Democrats have long not dreamed of contesting. Yet, the presidential election remains a toss-up because Obama’s progress has not been felt as strongly in the states where Obama is hoping to pick-up electoral votes.

This is obvious from today’s batch of polls, showing a state like Ohio remaining at its 2004 level but finding Texas to have tightened considerably:

• In Ohio, which remains the king of all battlegrounds, Obama gets 48% to McCain’s 46% in SUSA’s latest poll. This is down from a 9% lead last month.
• Obama is helped by a shift in partisan breakdown, as 47% of respondents call themselves Democrats versus 35% Republicans, but he has not solidified the base (only 75%).
• Ted Strickland’s inclusion on the Democratic ticket does not help Obama’s candidacy.

• In New Jersey, Obama crushes McCain 49% to 33% according to a poll by the respect Fairleigh Dickinson outlet. Obama only gets 60% of Clinton supporters, but could he lose in a state in which Bush’s approval rating is down to 18%?

• In Texas, McCain’s lead is down to single-digits, 48% to 39%, according to Rasmussen. It was 13% in early June (though only 5% in May).
• Obama’s “very unfavorable” rating is very high though, at 34%.

• Finally, McCain remains in front in Kentucky, 51% to 35%, also according to Rasmussen. This is a tightening from the 57% to 32% lead he enjoyed last month.
• Here again, however, McCain benefits from a big favorability, 63% to 41%, with 37% having a very unfavorable opinion of Obama.

Ohio’s numbers confirm what I have been saying repeatedly over the past few weeks: Obama can put this election away by solidifying the support of registered Democrats. A 12% edge in party identification would be a dramatic improvement for Democrats over 2004, when exit polls showed 40% of voters were Republican and 35% were Democrats. But with only 76% of the Democratic vote, Obama cannot exploit the full potential of this historic shift in partisan breakdown.

At the same time, every Texas poll that shows a single-digit race is a stunning gift to the Democratic candidate: McCain cannot afford to think of this state, let alone spend a dime defending its 34 electoral votes. Bush’s home state is as must-win as any state gets for the GOP’s nominee, and if Obama succeeds in forcing McCain to commit resources to Texas it would be a huge boost to his national chances. Note that another poll found McCain leading by 5% just yesterday. If Obama rallies the Hispanic vote, Texas could end up hosting a surprisingly heated race come October.

Meanwhile, two Senate polls were released today:

• In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell is ahead 48% to 41% in Rasmussen’s latest survey. He was trailing 49% to 44% last month in what was universally described as an outlier.
• Lunsford retains a low favorability rating, however, 43% to 46%. McConnell’s favorability rating is a high 56%.

• In Texas, Rasmussen finds Sen. Cornyn leading 48% to 35%. Two weeks ago, he was ahead 52% to 35% and 47% to 43% last month.

Rasmussen’s May poll from Texas and most recent poll from Kentucky had caused quite a stir, as no poll had shown quite that dramatic numbers for these two Republican incumbents. Texas’s numbers were soon rectified by Rasmussen — but not after a Research 2000 poll suggested there could be something tighter than expected indeed. In the latest installment, Cornyn is under 50%, the traditional vulnerability threshold for an incumbent. The Lone Star State remains a long shot for the DSCC, but it definitely has the potential of a sleeper. While Noriega and the DSCC might not have the resources to devote to this state when time comes to make some tough decisions, Obama’s unexpected efforts to organize in this state and deploy an army of volunteers should help Noriega.

As for Kentucky, Lunsford is in the same boat as Noriega: He has to prove that he is a credible challenger before he can hope to get the attention of national Democrats. Note that Lunsford is less in need of help from Washington, since he can self-fund his campaign and since Kentucky is a smaller state than Texas. Just like Sen. Cornyn, it is hard to believe that Mitch McConnell is truly vulnerable to a second-tier candidate, but Rasmussen is certainly not the only institute finding the Republican incumbent to be struggling.