Over the past two cycles, Democrats picked up a net 54 seats, which means that most of the obviously vulnerable GOP-held districts have already fallen in Democratic hands. Only 6 districts currently held by Republicans voted for John Kerry in 2004; 5 of them are currently rated as toss-up. With few low-hanging fruits left for Democrats to go after, what other districts should the party focus on? The answer is obvious: Now that the Kerry districts have nearly all been won over, the DCCC can concentrate on the 34 GOP-held districts that voted for Barack Obama. But it will have take a careful look at each district to determine which would remain open to voting for a Democrat in a less friendly environment.
I have tried to build as exhaustive a list as possible and include any district that could potentially be competitive next year; in particular, I have included many first-term lawmakers, even those who sit in relatively safe districts, as freshmen often make the most vulnerable incumbents. Many of these races could drop out of the ratings in the months ahead, but for now it is worth keeping an open eye and monitoring recruitment activities in as many districts as possible.
Some navigation help if you want to jump to list of toss-ups, list of lean retentions or list of likely retentions.
Republican seats, toss-up (6)
| AK-AL | Rep. Don Young | Bush 61%-36% | McCain 59%-38% |
Don Young’s survival was arguably the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle. Under investigations for allegations of ethical impropriety, the 36-year incumbent was considered an underdog in his primary against Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell and then against Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz. He beat back both challengers, the latter by a decisive 5%. Young’s double-victory went to show how much Alaska voters are attached to their old school Republican leaders (Ted Stevens only lost by 4,000 votes despite being convicted on 7 corruption charges two weeks before Election Day) and how hard it is for a Democrat to win statewide in Alaska, even under the best of circumstances.
That said, Young is too embattled not to be considered vulnerable in 2010. Democrats do not have a candidate just yet, but a credible contender is likely to jump in - perhaps Berkowitz, Diane Benson or state Senator Hollis French. Much will depend on the Republican primary, as Parnell is mulling another run. (He would have to give up his job as Lieutenant Governor, unlike in 2008.) If Parnell wins the nomination, the seat will stay in Republican hands; if Young prevails, he will be hard-pressed to repeat his 2008 upset: Last year, Sarah Palin’s presence on the GOP’s national ticket boosted Stevens and Young as well; the Governor is unlikely to have as large coattails next year.
| DE-AL | Rep. Mike Castle | Kerry 53%-46% | Obama 62%-37% |
Mike Castle is one of the last Republicans surviving in staunchly blue territory. Not only did he serve two terms as Governor from 1984 to 1992, but he has been Delaware’s sole House representative since 1993. Democrats have never been unable to mount a competitive run: Castle has never won a term by less than 12%! Yet, 2010 could be different: In April, former Lieutenant Governor John Carney announced that he would challenge Castle.
Could the threat of a competitive race - something he has not faced in many cycles - be enough to push Castle to leave the House? Not only is he old and perennially subject to retirement rumors, but the NRSC is trying to recruit him to run for the open Senate seat. If Castle runs for re-election, it would set up a highly competitive race that both candidates would be well equipped to win; if he does not, Democrats would be heavily favored to pick-up his seat
| IL-10 | Rep. Mark Kirk | Kerry 53%-47% | Obama 61%-38% |
Rep. Mark Kirk fared impressively in the past two cycles. Despite sitting in a blue-leaning district that voted overwhelmingly for Obama and despite the millions Democrats spent to defeat him, Kirk twice defeated Dan Seals by 5%. Unfortunately for the Republican, he has no time to rest: Democrats are sure to make IL-10 one of their top targets in the midterms. While the political environment will surely not be as favorable for them as it was in 2006 and 2008, the district is so blue that Kirk will never be safe. State Sen. Susan Garrett and state Sen. Michael Bond are mulling a run, and Seals’s entourage is talking up a third consecutive run.
But the situation could get still worse for the GOP: In 2010, Kirk is considering running for Governor or for Senate and he has said that he will make up his mind by the end of April. He might be the Republicans’ only chance to pick-up these statewide offices - but his retirement would be a catastrophe for the NRCC: While the GOP has enough of a bench to contest the race (state Sen. Matt Murphy, state Sen. Dan Duff and moderate state Rep. Beth Coulson and other lawmakers still all live in the district), Democrats would be favored to win an open seat.
| LA-02 | Rep. Joseph Cao | Kerry 75%-24% | Obama 74%-25% |
A Vietnamese-American Republican representing a heavily African-American and safely Democratic seat, Joseph Cao is the unlikeliest congressman. And that makes him the most endangered incumbent of the 2010 cycle. Last fall, Cao shockingly prevailed against Democratic Rep. William Jefferson in very particular circumstances. Jefferson had been indicted and the growing allegations of corruption marginalized him in the district and nationally; even then, the incumbent would have survived if the election had not been delayed until December, where low turnout and the demobilization of black voters allowed Cao to score the biggest upset of the cycle. Cao starts the 2010 cycle as the clear underdog, and it is difficult to see how he could survive a non-indicted Democratic opponent.
Only a set of of circumstances as extraordinary as in 2008 could give him a fighting chance: (1) A bruising Democratic primary from which emerges a weak and embattled nominee; (2) a very pro-Republican national environment; (3) and a lot of moderation in his voting record. About the first condition: The Democratic primary is sure to be crowded (state Senator Cheryl Grey and state representative Cedric Rimmond are mentioned as early front-runners) but there is no suggestion for now that party infighting is undermining Democratic chances. About the third: Cao is voting largely in lockstep with the rest of his caucus, particularly on the stimulus bill and against the Democratic budget.
| PA-06 | Rep. Jim Gerlach | Kerry 52%-48% | Obama 58%-41% |
Philadelphia’s suburbs have been trending increasingly Democratic over the past decade, and Jim Gerlach has been sitting on increasingly precarious territory. Gerlach won his first three elections (in 2002, 2004 and 2006) by a tight 51% to 49%. In 2008, he was expected to cruise to victory since Democrats had nominated the low-profile Bob Roggio; but even then, Gerlach only prevailed by 4%. That might have shown Gerlach that it is only a matter of time until a stronger Democratic challenger channels the district’s lean to unseat him, and Gerlach is now considering leaving his House seat for a gubernatorial run. (An added motivation to look for another job: Democrats are sure to make PA-06 their top target when redrawing district lines in two years.)
Democrats would be favored to pick-up the district if Gerlach were to retire. But even if he runs for re-election, PA-06 is sure to be hotly contested as a number of Democrats are looking to the race. One has already declared his candidacy: Douglas Pike, a former columnist and editorial board member. Pike has indicated that he plans to spend $1 million of his own money on the campaign - a huge sum that guarantees that he remains a force to be reckoned with no matter which other Democrats jump in the race. (I analyzed his candidacy in more detail here.)
| WA-08 | Rep. Dave Reichert | Obama 57%-42% | Obama 57%-42% |
Reichert is still standing in his Democratic district despite facing two very tough challenges from Darcy Burner. Will the DCCC make him a top-tier target again in 2010, or will Reichert get a pass based on his ability to win a blue district in two overwhelmingly Democratic cycles? The answer to that question should depend on the quality of Democratic recruitment.
For now, there is one Democrat in the race: Suzan DelBene, who worked as a Microsoft executive. As a businesswoman, she has no political experience. Those who followed the two Reichert-Burner match-ups will recognize that DelBene’s profile problem: the incumbent was very successful in portraying Burner as a political novice who lacked the necessary experience to serve as congresswoman. Reichert is able to hold on to his district because he has developed an image of competence and experience; a successful Democratic nominee will be able to undermine that.
Some navigation help if you want to jump to list of toss-ups, list of lean retentions or list of likely retentions.
Republican seats, lean retention (12)
| CA-03 | Rep. Dan Lungren | Bush 58%-41% | Obama 49%-49% |
As CA-03 swung by a significant 17% at the presidential level, Dan Lungren was held to 50% in his re-election race against physician Bill Durston, who received 44%. The two men had already faced off in 2006, and Lungren had cruised to a much larger victory (59-38). In his rematch candidacy, Durston got no help whatsoever from the DCCC, which did not treat him as a serious contender - and can we blame Democrats for not paying attention to a district Bush won by 17% in 2004? After all, only in the final weeks of the campaign did anyone start mentioning CA-03 as a potential pick-up opportunity.
Now, Durston has announced that he will challenge Lungren for the third consecutive cycle. This time, he is expected to receive some support from the DCCC, who will certainly notice that the district no longer looks staunchly red.
| CA-45 | Rep. Mary Bono Mack | Bush 56%-43% | Obama 52%-47% |
CA-45 gave Obama his biggest winning margin among the eight GOP-held California districts that voted for the Democrat last fall. That is enough to put Bono Mack on the list of endangered Republican incumbents. Bono Mack has been in the House since 1999, and she easily won re-election in 2008 (57% to 43%) against an opponent who was able to raise nearly $500,000. That suggests some ability to win Democratic-leaning votes, and Bono Mack has been careful not to look like too conservative a congressman. She is for instance a member of Republicans for Choice and Whitman’s “It’s My Party Too” PAC. Will that be enough to survive in an increasingly blue district?
Democrats already have a credible candidate in the race: Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet has just filed a candidacy statement. While Palm Springs and its population of 42,000 is a relatively small part of the district, it is a good base from which to proceed as it is one of the district’s two cities and its mayors have gone on to hold on federal office before (Mary’s husband Sonny Bono was Palm Springs Mayor until he was elected to the House in 1994; he served until his accidental death in 1999). Another interesting dynamic is that Pougnet is openly gay. All recent electoral signs point to the fact that Pougnet’s sexuality would be a non-issue almost anywhere - let alone in a district like CA-45 that has a substantial gay population.
| CA-48 | Rep. John Campbell | Bush 58%-40% | Obama 49%-49% |
To take advantage of the new blue coloration of eight GOP-held California districts, Democrats will have to recruit strong contenders who can grab the DCCC’s attention and win some support from the national party. Democrats might have found such a candidate in CA-48,: former Irvine Mayor Beth Krom, who recently announced her candidacy. Her pre-existing relationship with Democratic activists should enable her to build a strong campaign infrastructure. Irvine only covers part of the district (the city’s population is estimated at 200,000), but the fact that it is not a Dem-leaning city should further boost Krom’s electability argument.
That said, CA-48 remains a red-leaning district. It might have swung by 18%, but Obama barely won the district in the best of circumstances for Democrats. In fact, Campbell’s first win in a 2005 special election testifies to the district’s conservative nature: the Republican beat his Democratic rival 44% to 27%, while 25% of the vote went to far-right candidate Jim Gilchrist, the founder of the Minuteman Project.
| FL-10 | Rep. Bill Young | Bush 51%-49% | Obama 51%-47% |
Democrats have been waiting for Bill Young’s retirement for years, but Congress’s longest serving Republican is still hanging in there. And why would he call it quits? The ranking member of the Appropriation Committee, Young has long enjoyed the benefit of seniority without having to worry about winning re-election: Even though FL-10 is a swing district that leans Democratic (it voted for Bill Clinton twice, Al Gore and Barack Obama), Young hasn’t faced a serious challenger in decades. Since 1971, he has dipped below 65% only twice - and he has received more than 70% in 12 of 19 contests!
Democrats are finally ready to try: In April, state Senator Charlie Justice, who has served in the state legislature since 2001, announced that he would challenge Young. The incumbent would be very difficult to beat: His astronomical numbers in the face of the district’s blue drift testifies to his popularity, and his role on the Appropriations Committee is a very powerful electoral argument. Yet, Democrats can use Young’s age against him - as well as hope that he has lost the habit of running a competitive race.
The DCCC’s biggest hope is that Young chooses to retire instead of facing the prospect of a hard-fought battle - an experience he is not accustomed to. He only raised $1,000 in the first quarter of 2009; that might be enough if he was unchallenged, but Young now has to get in serious campaign mode. There is no doubt that he can raise money, will he want to? Will he accept the fact that he now needs to solicit funds and hold campaign events - after decades in which raising $1,000 and airing a few last-minute ads was enough? As importantly, how is Young - the former chairman of the Appropriations Committee - reacting to being stuck in minority status?
| FL-12 | Open | Bush 58%-42% | McCain 50%-49% |
Rep. Adam Putnam is running for statewide office, opening up the House seat. FL-12 is undoubtedly Republican-leaning, but a Democratic candidate could pick-up the seat if the environment is right: the presidential vote swung by a large 15% between 2004 and 2008, and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in the districts.
Republicans could have a crowded field State Rep. Dennis Ross is looking like the front-runner for the GOP nomination (he has already secured endorsements from Jeb Bush and four congressmen) but other strong candidates could run: state Senator Paula Dockery, state Rep. Seth McKeel and state Rep. Baxter Thompson are mentioned. Meanwhile, Democrats recently got their first candidate in the race: former state Rep. and current Polk County’s Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards. She has some name recognition, a solid base in a red-leaning county, and enough credibility to attract the DCCC’s attention. Other potential Democratic candidates include former state Senator Rick Dantzler and 2006 nominee Doug Tudor.
| FL-25 | Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart | Bush 56%-44% | McCain 50%-49% |
Of the three Miami Republicans targeted by the DCCC in 2008, only Mario Diaz-Balart was held to a narrow margin of victory: The incumbent prevailed against Dade County Democratic Chairman Joe Garcia 53% to 47%, crushing Democratic hopes of finally demonstrating that Cuban-American voters are ready to desert Republicans. There is little doubt that constituency is less monolithic in its support for the GOP - the district did swing by 11%, far larger than Florida’s statewide change - but Democrats still have work to do. Whether they will have a shot in 2010 will depend on the quality of their recruitment (Garcia is said to be mulling a rematch, and he would make a strong candidate) and whether national Democrats are ready to once again pour money in the expensive Miami market.
| MI-11 | Rep. Thad McCotter | Bush 53%-47% | Obama 54%-45% |
Barack Obama’s decisive victory in the district testifies to the fact that Oakland County is returning to its Democratic roots after being one of the most famous homes of Reagan Democrats. Yet, the DCCC paid little attention to MI-11 in 2006 or in 2008; both times, Republican Rep. Thad McCotter won narrow victories against low-profile and under-funded challengers. Democrats do not want to commit the same mistake yet again, and they have made the four-term McCotter into one of their top targets. (MI-11 was one of 12 districts the DCCC targeted in its wave of stimulus-related robocalls.)
Yet, just as in 2006 and in 2008, the DCCC are having difficulty recruiting a credible challenger. In a major blow to Democrats, state House Speaker Andy Dillon has already decided against a House run; state Senator Glenn Anderson, who represents McCotter’s hometown of Livonia and could thus cut in McCotter’s base, has hinted that he will not run. Other potential Democratic candidates include state Representative Mark Corriveau and Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano. If none of them run, McCotter could coast to re-election.
| MN-03 | Rep. Erik Paulsen | Bush 51-48% | Obama 52%-46% |
In one of the biggest disappointment for congressional Democrats, MN-03 swung decisively towards Obama at the presidential level but the open seat race was won by Republican Erik Paulsen. The new representative has an obvious target on his back; his ability to over-perform relative to McCain had as much to do with his Democratic opponent’s inexperience as with his own strength; with Ashwin Madia’s 2008 loss and Tammy Duckworth’s 2006 defeat in IL-06, the DCCC should learn that veterans are not necessarily the best equipped to win political campaigns. Madia has already said he will not seek a rematch; state Senator Terri Bonoff, who unexpectedly lost the DFL endorsement to Madia last year, could seek the nomination.
| MN-06 | Rep. Michelle Bachmann | Bush 57%-42% | McCain 53%-45% |
MN-06 has a solid enough red lean that the GOP would have little trouble defending it if it was not for Bachmann’s profile as one of the House’s most outspoken conservatives. Bachmann has a history of controversial statements, starting with her description of the liberal agenda back in August and her unbelievable mid-October rant against anti-American sentiment in Congress. The latter incident upended her 2008 re-election race: Within 48 hours, her opponent raised more than $1 million and the DCCC committed as much money to the district. On November 4th, Bachmann survived by 2%. That this was a disappointment to Democrats should not obscure the fact that Bachmann significantly under-performed compared to the top of her ticket.
Democrats will make sure she faces a top-tier opponent who is funded enough to topple her. Bachmann did survive the 2008 cycle, but she is in a situation comparable to other Republicans so controversial that they endangered safely red seats. Rep. Bill Sali’s antics allowed the DCCC to pick-up ID-01 last fall, while a series of controversies surrounding Jean Schmidt gave Democrats a shot one of Ohio’s most conservative districts. Schmidt did survive a couple of times by narrow margins, but OH-02 is far more Republican than MN-06. (McCain got 62% in the former, 53% in the latter.)
| NJ-07 | Rep. Leonard Lance | Bush 53%-47% | Obama 51%-48% |
Republican Rep. Ferguson’s unexpected announcement that he would not for run-election delighted Democrats last spring, but the race ended up as one of their main disappointment of the cycle. Assemblywoman Linda Stender, who had gotten surprisingly close to unseating Ferguson in 2006, was plagued by high negatives inherited from the GOP’s 2006 attacks. The DCCC dropped in more than $1 million, but state Senator Leonard Lance (endorsed by The New York Times and The Star Ledger) won the seat by 9%.
As a freshman lawmaker in a district won by Obama, Lance has an obvious target on his back. Potential Democratic candidates including state Senator Joseph Vitale, Assemblyman Joseph Cryan and Mayors Juan Choi and Jordan Glatt. Yet, Lance will not be easy to dislodge: He has a relatively moderate profile, and the district has elected Republicans since the 1950s. In addition, New Jersey’s electoral map is likely to change significantly in the next round of redistricting; that could encourage many challengers to sit out the next cycle.
| SC-01 | Rep. Henry Brown | Bush 61%-39% | McCain 57%-42% |
In a conservative district like SC-01, it takes a perfect storm for a Democrat to win: a weak Republican, sufficient funds, a top recruit, and a favorable environment. In 2008, these elements almost came together as wealthy heiress Linda Ketner spent more than $1 million of her own money to beat the not-so-entrenched Brown; she came 4% short - an impressive showing given that few people were paying much attention to the district.
In 2010, Brown is considered to be vulnerable again - though Democrats will have to deal with a number of factor going against them: The environment is not expected to be as favorable as it was last year, minority turnout is likely to be much lower and Brown will not be taken by surprise. Many expected Ketner to build on her first run to try again, but she has signaled her reluctance to jump in another race. Other potential Democratic candidates include state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis and former state Rep. Robert Barber. It also looks like Brown will face top-notch primary competition; a bruising intra-party battle could help Democrats - but it could also allow the GOP to get rid of the under-performing Brown.
| VA-10 | Rep. Frank Wolf | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 53%-46% |
First elected in 1980 and a member of the Appropriations Committee, Frank Wolf is a senior enough lawmaker that it would be tough for Democrats to dislodge him however blue the district becomes. Yet, there is no question that Northern Virginia is trending leftward so rapidly that VA-10 might soon become unwinnable by any Republican: George W. Bush prevailed by 15% in 2000, making this a rare district in which Kerry improved on Gore’s performance.
With a top-tier nominee, Democrats might be able to worry Wolf, who prevailed by large margins in both 2006 and 2008 against Georgetown Professor Judy Feder; that said, Wolf’s 17% victory in 2006 was the closest race he has faced in 24 years! The Democrats’ best bet is to hope for a Wolf retirement: Now 70, the representative has been raising almost no money this cycle - suggesting that he is at least thinking about calling it quits. (After all, it is hard for a Republican who has seen the glory days of majority rule to suddenly be stuck in permanent minority status.) A potential Democratic nominee is state Senator Mark Herring.
Some navigation help if you want to jump to list of toss-ups, list of lean retentions or list of likely retentions.
Republican seats, likely retention/potentially competitive (44)
| AZ-03 | Rep. John Shadegg | Bush 58%-41% | McCain 57%-42% |
In 2008, Democrats thought that Shadegg - one of the House’s most prominent conservatives - was ripe for a challenge and the DCCC invested more than $1 million in the race in the contest’s final months. Yet, the eight-term incumbent won by a decisive 54% to 42% margin. That might have been the closest race in Shadegg’s congressional career, but it certainly did not justify Democratic optimism. In 2010, Democrats are unlikely to try much against Shadegg, though the district could be in for an entertaining race if the representative retires. (While he has not said anything about his plans this cycle, he announced he would not seek re-election in February 2008 before retracting his decision two weeks later; that certainly suggests that retirement is on the back of his mind.)
| AL-03 | Rep. Mike Rogers | Bush 58%-41% | McCain 56%-43% |
AL-03 emerged as one of the most surprising races of Election Night 2008. For much of the evening, it looked like the Democratic nominee - 29-year old attorney Joshua Segall - might pull off one of the cycle’s biggest upsets and oust Rep. Mike Rogers. He ended up falling short, 53% to 47%. Now, Segall has announced that he will seek a rematch in 2010. Also mentioned is Calhoun County Commissioner Robert Downing. (Some Democrats were hoping that Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks would challenge Rogers in 2010; instead, Sparks is running for Governors.)
Segall’s candidacy undoubtedly guarantees a competitive race, but there is reason to think Rogers might not have as much to worry as last year: Much of his 2008 vulnerability came from the year’s pro-Democratic fundamentals, which was strongly felt in Alabama (Dems won two hard-fought open seats), and from the boost in African-American turnout, which should not be as marked in 2010. Furthermore, Democrats will not be able to count on an element of surprise: In 2008, Rogers did not feel threatened and did not defend himself as much as he should have. He now has time to see Segall coming.
| CA-24 | Rep. Elton Gallegly | Bush 56%-43% | Obama 51%-48% |
In 2006, Elton Gallegly announced his retirement - only to have to reverse himself a week later when he discovered that he would not be allowed to withdraw his name from the ballot and that no other Republican would be allowed to replace him. Gallegly ended up running again with less drama in 2008, and won easily against a low-profile challenger. The first question we should be asking, then, is whether Gallegly will run for re-election in 2010, or whether his 2006 retirement desires will come back.
An open seat race would undoubtedly be a good takeover opportunity for Democrats - a much better one than it would have been in 2006. California’s blue drift has made CA-24 one of eight red districts won by Obama. Even if Gallegly runs for re-elections, the DCCC will at least look around for a credible candidate who could take advantage of the district’s evolution.
| CA-25 | Rep. Buck McKeon | Bush 59%-40% | Obama 50%-48% |
Few districts changed as much between 2004 and 2008: The presidential vote swung by a massive 21% in the Democrats’ favor. That is enough to mark Gallegly as an endangered incumbent, and the DCCC will now start looking for challengers who could take advantage of California’s blue drift. That said, Gallegly’s 2008 performance suggests that he retains the ability to win over Democratic-leaning voters: While Reps. Lungren, Calvert and Bilbray only narrowly survived their district’s unexpected blue coloration, Rep. McKeon won by a respectable 16%. On the other hand, McKeon’s 2008 opponent spent less than $11,000; for her to get 42% of the vote was thus a decent showing. Can Democrats field a more stronger challenger next year?
| CA-26 | Rep. David Dreier | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 51%-47% |
First elected in 1980, Dreier has not had to worry about his re-election races much in this historically Republican district of Southern California. But the Golden State’s leftward drift is leaving him exposed to a top-tier challenge, and the DCCC is now paying close attention to CA-26 and the seven other GOP-held districts won by Barack Obama last fall. The first question, like in these other California districts, is whether Dreier will draw a strong Democratic opponent.
| CA-44 | Rep. Ken Calvert | Bush 59%-40% | Obama 50%-49% |
Ken Calvert was close to falling victim of the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle. Not only was he considered safe given that CA-44 is considered a staunchly conservative district (Bush did prevail by 19% in 2004), but no one paid any attention to Democratic nominee Bill Hedrick, the Corona-Norco school board president who raised a total of $200,000. Yet, the district experienced two shockers on November 4th. First, Obama managed to win the district, in what is a massive swing of 20% (far larger than the national or the state average); second, Hedrick came within 6,000 votes of unseating the Republican incumbent. In fact, it took a few weeks for Calvert’s victory to be finalized.
Hedrick is now preparing a rematch and meeting with DCCC officials to convince them to fund his campaign. That is enough to put CA-44 on the watch list. However, there are a number of factors that will make it difficult for Hedrick to come as close as he did last year. For one, he will not benefit from as strong a Democratic turnout as the one that carried Obama to a district-wide victory; second, the DCCC does not look committed to helping Hedrick just yet; and third, Hedrick will no longer enjoy the element of surprise, as Calvert is now sure to devote himself to his re-election campaign in a way he did not do in 2008.
| CA-50 | Rep. Bill Bilbray | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 51%-47% |
One of eight California Republicans to find himself representing Obama-voting territory, Bill Bilbray has a history of facing competitive contests. In 2006, he won a special election by only 5%; last fall, he was held to an unimpressive 50% by Democratic challenger Nick Leibham, who received 45%. In short: His district’s changing politics and his past results mark him as a vulnerable incumbent. To oust Bilbray, the DCCC will need to commit more help than they did over the past few cycles (CA-50 was not on the national radar screen in 2008) and recruit a strong candidate. Attorney Tracy Emblem and the Democrats’ 2006 nominee Francine Busby have already jumped in the race.
| FL-13 | Rep. Vern Buchanan | Bush 56%-44% | McCain 52%-47% |
In 2006, Vern Buchanan won his first term in controversial circumstances; an unbelievably high number of undervotes in Democratic-leaning Saratosa County allowed him to score a 250-vote victory with no possibility of recount since the county’s machines had no paper ballots. In 2008, Buchanan faced a rematch against Democrat Christine Jennings; this time, he won by 19% and significantly over-performed relatively to John McCain’s showing. But would he have done so well had he faced another candidate than Jennings, considering voters don’t tend to like candidates who pursue election contests - however justified their complaints?
Potential Democratic candidates in 2010 are Morgan Bentley and state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald. But the biggest question mark is whether Buchanan will seek re-election - or whether he will look for a Senate or gubernatorial promotion. Republicans have a deep bench in the district - starting with state Senators Michael Bennett and Nancy Detert - and the GOP would be more favored to win an open seat than in 2006. The political environment is likely to be better for the party next year, and Buchanan was not considered to be the strongest potential Republican then.
| FL-16 | Rep. Tom Rooney | Bush 54%-46% | McCain 52%-47% |
Last fall, Mark Foley’s old House seat was rocked by yet another sex scandal that cost Rep. Tim Mahoney his seat and gave the district back to Republicans. Yet, Mahoney was one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents even before he was hit by allegations of pay-off and harassment: The district leans Republican, and Tom Rooney was a formidable candidate on his own right (unlike Mahoney in 2006). That means that Rooney is now favorable to hold on to his seat, though a freshman’s first re-election race is always worth keeping an eye on.
| FL-18 | Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | Bush 54%-46% | Obama 51%-49% |
In 2008, Democrats made a lot of noise about targeting Miami’s three Republican congressmen. While they invested the least resources against Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, her 58% to 42% victory was impressive - especially considering that Barack Obama won the district and improved Al Gore’s performance by 16%! One of Ros-Lehtinen’s best assets is her seniority: She is the Ranking Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committees, for instance. Simply put, it is for such entrenched incumbents to beat in non-wave elections. Nevertheless, the rapidity of the district’s political transformation leaves Ros-Lehtinen in a potentially vulnerable position down-the-line.
| FL-21 | Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart | Bush 57%-43% | McCain 51%-49% |
FL-21 was one of the Democrats’ most shocking disappointments last fall. This Southern Florida district was considered one of the party’s top pick-up opportunities: Democratic nominee Raul Martinez, the former Mayor of Hialeah, was touted as a top-tier challenger, the DCCC spent a lot of money and a SUSA poll even found Rep. Diaz-Balart trailing his opponent. Yet, Diaz-Balart triumphed on Election Day, 58% by 42%. Along with the Democrats’ failure in FL-18 and in FL-25, this result was a setback for Democratic hopes that they would finally make inroads in the Cuban vote.
Yet, the presidential results suggest that Democrats should not give up hope: Obama improved Kerry’s performance by 12%, which is a much higher swing than in the entire state of Florida. That suggests that Cuban-Americans’ loyalty to the GOP might indeed be diminishing, which will sooner or later endanger the career of Miami Republicans. A Democratic candidate that has less baggage than Martinez (whose controversial mayoral tenure gave the GOP plenty of ammunition) might fare better in upcoming cycles.
| IA-04 | Rep. Tom Latham | Bush 51%-48% | Obama 53%-45% |
In 2000, Tom Latham was redistricted in a Democratic-friendly district that was expected to give him trouble - and Barack Obama’s 8% victory in the district confirms that the incumbent has to swim against the tide. Yet, Latham - boosted by his seat on the Appropriations Committee - has had little trouble winning re-election. In 2008, he received 61% of the vote against Becky Greenwald; she might have be an under-funded opponent who received no help from the national party, but Latham’s electoral strength is nonetheless impressive. Given that they’ve barely put up a fight over the past two cycles, it would truly be a shame for Democrats not to try to unseat Latham in 2010; but will any strong Democrat stand up after the incumbent’s triumphant wins in recent cycles?
| IL-06 | Rep. Peter Roskam | Bush 53%-47% | Obama 56%-43% |
The DCCC poured millions in his district during the 2006 open seat fight, but Peter Roskam narrowly beat Rahm Emanuel’s protege Tammy Duckworth. Even though the district took a wild swing to the left in 2008, IL-06 will be a tough district for Democrats if Roskam seeks re-election. Yet, the sophomore representative is considering mounting a statewide run, potentially seeking Roland Burris’s Senate seat. An open seat race in a district Barack Obama won by double-digits would immediately become one of the Democrats’ top pick-up opportunities, at least if the DCCC finds a more experienced candidate than it did in 2006.
| IL-16 | Rep. Donald Manzullo | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 53%-45% |
First elected in 1992 in this marginally Republican district, Donald Manzullo has had little trouble holding his seat and he has received more than 60% of the vote throughout the past decade. Yet, he is now representing a district that voted for the Democratic presidential candidate by a decisive 8%, which marks Manzullo as a potentially vulnerable representative. He has spent little time guarding himself over his 9 terms, developing a very conservative voting record that could be used against him if the DCCC finally commits to targeting him; they have shown signs that they will: Manzullo was one of 28 congressmen targeted by an early February radio ad attacking Republicans for their opposition to the stimulus.
| IL-18 | Rep. Aaron Schock | Bush 58%-42% | McCain 50%-48% |
When Republican Rep. Ray LaHood announced that he would retire in 2008, Democrats thought they would have a shot at winning his district. But 27-year old Aaron Schock was never threatened by Colleen Callahan: He easily won 59% to 38%, becoming the youngest member of the House. His political resume is already impressive, as he has also won two terms as an Illinois state representative from a Democratic-leaning district (not to mention being voted hottest new member of Congress by Huffington Post readers).
It remains to be seen whether the DCCC will spend much time worrying about this district. After all, McCain managed to narrowly prevail even though he was facing an Illinois Senator; and the ease with which Schock won the open seat does not suggest that he is that vulnerable. On the other hand, a representative is often vulnerable in his first re-election race, and Schock seems to be the type of politician the opposite party should try to defeat as soon as possible.
| IN-03 | Rep. Mark Souder | Bush 68%-31% | McCain 56%-43% |
Last fall, Indiana’s 3rd District shifted by a massive 24%; yet, that did not prove enough for Democrats to unseat Rep. Mark Souder, an eight-term socially conservative lawmaker who was heavily targeted. The DCCC spent heavily, forcing the NRCC to use more than $300,000 of its meager budget, and polls suggested that the race was a dead heat. The reason Democrats were so confident: Souder had only prevailed by 8% in 2006 against an underfunded challenger no one was paying much attention to. Yet, the incumbent scored a decisive victory last fall, beating Michael Montagano 55% to 40% - outpacing his 2006 result as well as John McCain’s showing.
If Democrats did not manage to unseat Souder last year, when Indiana was as hospitable to Democrats as it has ever been and the DCCC was willing to spend heavily to help its nominee, it is far less likely they will be able to do much in upcoming cycles. Yet, Indiana’s changing politics are worth keeping an eye on - Obama is sure to cultivate the state - as is Souder’s vulnerability. The next round of redistricting could also alter the district’s shape.
| KY-02 | Rep. Brett Guthrie | Bush 65%-34% | McCain 61%-38% |
KY-02 was one of House Democrats’ biggest disappointments on Election Night, as polls throughout the year had shown Democratic nominee David Boswell with a slight edge over Brett Guthrie for this open seat race. But the DCCC found itself faulted for its attack ads, putting Boswell on the defensive; combined with McCain’s coattails, that was enough to power Guthrie to a 53% to 47% victory. The district is heavily conservative, so Democrats will be hard-pressed to defeat Guthrie now that he is an incumbent. But it is worth leaving the race on the list since a representative’s first re-election race can become unexpectedly competitive. David Boswell, who is still a state Senator, could seek a rematch.
| KS-02 | Rep. Lynn Jenkins | Bush 59%-39% | McCain 55%-43% |
Among the best news Republicans received on Election Night ‘08 was Lynn Jenkins’s 5% victory against Democratic incumbent Nancy Boyda. The Democrats’ hope to reclaim the district largely depend on whether Boyda decides to seek a rematch, a prospect that is plausible according to The Hill. If she does, 2010 could be the fourth cycle in a row featuring Boyda as the Democratic nominee: She was crushed in 2004 before prevailing in 2006 and losing her seat in 2008.
| KS-04 | Open | Bush 64-34% | McCain 58%-40% |
Based around Wichita, KS-04 is staunchly conservative; George W. Bush won with 64% of the vote in 2004 and McCain received 58%. Accordingly, the Republican nominee will be heavily favored to hold on to this seat, and the GOP is likely to have plenty of candidates looking to get a promotion to Washington. Potential contenders include White House Political Affairs Director Matt Schlapp, State Sen. Susan Wagle, State Senate Majority Leader Derek Schmidt.
That said, the district has been known to elect Democrats - until the 1994 red tsunami, in fact, when Tiahrt unexpectedly defeated Rep. Glickman. Furthermore, Democrats have somewhat of a bench in KS-04. Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer and state Sen. Raj Goyl (who comfortably upset a Republican incumbent in 2006 in a red-leaning area) would be credible candidates if the DCCC can recruit them.
| LA-04 | Rep. John Fleming | Bush 59%-40% | McCain 59%-40% |
On paper, Paul Carmouche was a stronger candidate to win the open seat race in 2008 than was John Fleming - but the Republican prevailed by less than 400 votes. The election had been delayed by a month due to Hurricane Gustav, and Fleming benefited from a less toxic environment than the one Republicans faced in November: The turnout gap disappeared and conservative-leaning independent did not reflexively vote for Democrats, allowing Fleming to take full advantage of LA-04’s Republican lean.
This is the sort of conservative district that the DCCC can only hope to pick-up as open seats - not to mention in excessively pro-Democratic cycles. 2008 was a golden opportunity, and Fleming is now heavily favored to keep his seat as long as he wants it. I am putting LA-04 on the list of races to watch solely because Fleming is a freshman and it is worth seeing whether Democrats will make any recruitment efforts; but the district could easily fall off the rankings soon.
| LA-06 | Rep. Bill Cassidy | Bush 59%-40% | McCain 57%-41% |
In the spring of 2008, Democrats celebrated an unlikely special election victory in this heavily Republican district. Don Cazayoux might have been helped by controversies surrounding his GOP opponent and by the national environment boosting his party, but he still looked favored to win the regularly scheduled election in November. Yet, Cazayoux’s re-election bid was sabotaged by a fellow Democrat, state Rep. Michael Jackson: In such a Republican district, there is really no room for Democrats to split their votes, and the 12% Jackson drew were enough to give the district to Republican nominee Bill Cassidy, who received 48% of the vote.
The district is conservative enough that Cassidy is heavily favored to hold on to the district now that he is the incumbent; but it is worth seeing whether Cazayoux (who is also mentioned as a potential Senate race) will make an attempt at reclaiming his former seat.
| MI-02 | Open | Bush 60%-39% | McCain 51%-48% |
Rep. Pete Hoekstra announced his retirement in December. This is a Republican-leaning district which swung to the left in 2008: Bush crushed Kerry with 60% of the vote, but McCain’s share was reduced to 51%. Whether that was an aberration or a durable change in Michigan politics will determine whether Democrats have a shot at contesting this race. The problem for Democrats is that they have a thin bench and that the political environment in 2010 is unlikely to be as favorable to their takeover efforts as it was in 2006 and 2008.
| MI-06 | Rep. Fred Upton | Bush 53%-46% | Obama 54%-45% |
Like many of his Michigan colleagues, Rep. Fred Upton thought he was seating in a marginally Republican district, but Barack Obama swung MI-06 by 16% on his way to scoring a decisive victory. That is enough to put Upton on the radar screen, and Democrats would be able to rely on the district’s changing politics if they were to recruit a top-tier challenger in 2010. Yet, the DCCC faces two problems. One, Democrats have a thin bench in the district (state Rep. Robert Jones and former Kalamazoo Mayor Hannah McKinney could make decent candidates). Second, Upton showed his ability to sustain Democratic waves in 2006 and 2008, when he easily won re-election. The Democrats’ best shot at picking-up the seat would for Upton to retire, which is sometimes mentioned as a possibility.
| MI-08 | Rep. Mike Rogers | Bush 54%-45% | Obama 53%-46% |
Rep. Mike Rogers disappointed Democrats when he announced that he would not run for Governor in 2010. The DCCC was hoping to have a shot at an open seat in a district that gave a decisive 7% victory to Barack Obama. The district was held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow until Rogers narrowly won the open seat race in 2000. Since then, national Democrats have paid little attention to the district, allowing Rogers to sail to re-election; for instance, he won 57% to 40% last fall. We now have to see whether the DCCC is committed enough to capitalizing on Obama’s gains to recruit a top-tier challenger and make this a competitive race; potential contenders include Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, state Senator Gretchen Whitimer and state Rep. Mark Meadows.
| MO-06 | Rep. Sam Graves | Bush 57%-42% | McCain 54%-45% |
What happened here in 2008? One of the Democrats’ most touted recruits early in the cycle, Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes was unable to get any traction and lost by a whooping 21% against an opponent who was considered vulnerable. Graves’ early decision to air nasty attack ads blasting Barnes for supporting “San Fransisco values” to bizarre disco music might have made a difference. The incumbent’s triumph will surely scare other Democrats away from challenging him and dissuade the DCCC from spending too much time looking towards this district; Barnes has already ruled out a rematch.
| MO-09 | Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer | Bush 59%-41% | McCain 55%-44% |
Last fall, the GOP avoided a congressional debacle by saving seats like this one. A conservative district, MO-09 should not have been that hotly contested but the national environment made it quickly obvious that the NRCC would have to put up a fight to hold on to Kenny Hulshof’s seat. After an expensive and bruising campaign, Blaine Luetkemeyer prevailed by 3%. Now that they will have to face an incumbent, Democrats will have trouble competing in the district, especially once the environment becomes less toxic for Republicans than it was in 2008. On the other hand, Luetkemeyer is still a freshman lawmaker who has not had time to entrench himself; it could be worth for the DCCC to test him once more, so we will keep an eye on Democratic recruitment.
| NE-02 | Rep. Lee Terry | Bush 60%-38% | Obama 50%-49% |
Lee Terry was surely not expecting to ever have to worry about representing a blue district. But Obama’s victory in NE-02 gave him his most improbable electoral vote of the 2008 election and confirmed that Omaha residents are open to bucking the GOP - but only if Democrats make an effort to win over their support. The combination of Obama’s coattails, of the national environment and of the Democrats’ unexpectedly superior ground game almost cost Terry a six term: The incumbent prevailed by only 4% against Jim Esch, who got the DCCC’s attention in the final weeks. (In 2006, Esch had already held Terry at 55%.)
NE-02 is one of the most difficult districts to assess. Can federal Democrats possibly stay as competitive now that George W. Bush has left the White House? Are Nebraska Republicans not warned enough that they will not let themselves be swamped by the Democratic ground game in upcoming elections? On the other hand, the DCCC could target Terry more deliberately in 2010: The fact that this is now an Obama district immediately puts it on the radar screen, as opposed to the past two cycles where it unfairly remained an afterthought.
| NJ-05 | Rep. Scott Garrett | Bush 57%-43% | McCain 54%-45% |
In the final weeks of the 2008 cycle, NJ-05 attracted a fair amount of attention and Democrats held some hope that Rabbi Dennis Shulman might upset conservative Rep. Scott Garrett. But after airing one of the most vicious ads of the cycle, Garrett comfortably won re-election, 56% to 42%. He could very well face a competitive race in 2010, but NJ-05 is one of those districts in which the 2010 midterms cannot be discussed independently of the 2011 redistricting. New Jersey is set to lose a congressional seat, which will mean that the electoral map will be significantly transformed. (Lines are drawn by a bipartisan comission.)
This awkwardly drawn could very well find itself split in two, with the Democratic-tilting Bergen County parting itself with the rural parts of the district. That somewhat lowers the stake of the 2010 election - and it could also dampen the enthusiasm of potential Democratic candidates who would likely be better off waiting for 2012. For instance, why would Ogdensburg Mayor Jim Sekesly go through the trouble of running next year if he does not know whether his district would include Bergen County over the next decade?
| NV-02 | Rep. Heller | Bush 57-41% | McCain 49%-49% |
Heller managed to win an open seat in 2006 and handily prevailed in his first re-election race in 2008 despite Democratic buzz that he was beatable. His victories in two very heavily pro-Democratic cycles suggest that Heller should be able to hold on to his seat in 2010, when he will be more entrenched and the environment should not be as toxic for the GOP as it was over the past four years. Democrats already have a candidate in the race: Douglas County School Board President Cindy Trigg.
One big wild car: Heller might retire from the House to seek statewide office - either the gubernatorial race (Governor Gibbons is a Republican, but he is so unpopular as to be vulnerable in a primary) or a challenge to Senator Harry Reid. Given how much the district swung to the left in 2008, an open seat would undoubtedly be more competitive than it was in 2006.
One reason for Heller to stick it out is that his district is expected to become more solidly Republican after the next round of redistricting, when Nevada is expected to gain a seat. If Republicans control the process, they will protect their incumbents; if Democrats control the process, they will be more interested in protecting Dina Titus’s swing NV-03 and in giving the new NV-04 a Democratic lean. Such goals would require pushing Republican precincts into NV-02.
| NY-03 | Rep. Peter King | Bush 52-47% | McCain 52-47% |
Long Island representative Peter King should have little trouble holding on to his House seat if he seeks re-election. Sure, he is vulnerable on paper, but Democrats will have their hands full defending the six House seats they gained in the state over the past two cycles - not to mention potentially competitive senatorial and gubernatorial races. Yet, this race could catapult itself at the top of the DCCC’s target list if King decides to run for Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate, as he has said he might. Given the New York Republican Party’s dismal state and Long Island’s blue drift, Democrats would have the upper-hand.
| NY-23 | Rep. McHugh | Bush 51-47% | Obama 52%-47% |
Like the rest of upstate New York, NY-23 used to be a Republican bastion. But things dramatically changed over the past decade: Not only did neighboring districts fall in the Democratic column, but Obama won a decisive victory in NY-23. McHugh looks to be more entrenched than some of his former Republican colleagues, and he has easily won re-election since he first arrived to the House in 1993. Despite the district’s blue drift and the DCCC’s success at defeating upstate Republican incumbents in 2006 and 2008, McHugh should not face a stiff challenge if he runs for re-election. But Democrats are hoping that prolonged life in the minority looks unappealing to McHugh and that they get a shot at an open seat.
| NY-26 | Rep. Chris Lee | Bush 55%-43% | McCain 52%-46% |
Last year, Democrat Alice Kryzan unexpectedly won her party’s nomination after the top two candidates spent weeks demolishing each other; while Emily’s List and the DCCC immediately moved to signal that they would back Kryzan’s candidacy, she never recovered from doubts about her electability and about the degree to which the national party would help her. After a chaotic fall campaign, Chris Lee scored a convincing 14% victory - one of the few bright spots for Republicans in the Northeast.
NY-26 is now one of only three New York districts to be held by a Republican; that it is also the district in which McCain won the biggest victory does not obscure the fact that he only prevailed by 6%. Add to this the fact that Lee is a freshman lawmaker that did not face much of a race last year, and Lee looks sure to be heavily targeted next year. (The DCCC has been running radio ads against him.) The only problem for Democrats is that they have a thin bench in the district; in 2008, the candidates for the open seat besides Kryzan were a veteran and a multi-millionaire self-funder. Why should it be any different next year?
| OH-02 | Rep. Jean Schmidt | Bush 64%-36% | McCain 59%-40% |
OH-02 might be a heavily Republican district, but Schmidt’s unpopularity has made her a top Democratic target in years past. That said, Schmidt has now won three tough battles, and she won her 2008 race more decisively than she had the previous ones - suggesting she might finally be entrenching herself. Schmidt is unlikely to face as tough an environment in 2010 as she did in 2006 and 2008, so it remains to be seen whether any Democrat can mount a competitive run - let alone sole Democratic candidate David Krikorian, who has too conservative a profile to appeal to the district’s Democratic base.
| OH-12 | Rep. Patrick Tiberi | Bush 51%-49% | Obama 53%-46% |
Democrats might come to regret not doing more to defeat Pat Tiberi over the past two cycles. OH-12 has been trending leftward since Tiberi first won the seat in 2000. That year, Al Gore lost the district by 6%; last fall, Obama prevailed by 7%. As much of the country was submerged by a blue wave in 2006 and in 2008, OH-12 would have been ripe for a strong Democratic challenger; instead, Tiberi was barely targeted. In 2006, he faced former Rep. Bob Shamansky, then an 80-year old who had only served for two years in the 1980s; last fall, he faced political novice David Robinson. That Shamansky and Robinson managed to receive 43% and 42% respectively is a testament to many voters’ desire to elect a Democrat. Will the DCCC pay more attention to the district in 2010 than it did over the past decade? A strong challenger could make this a district to watch.
| OH-14 | Rep. Steve LaTourette | Bush 53%-47% | McCain by 600 votes |
Looking at Steve LaTourette’s victory margins in 2006 and in 2008, you wouldn’t know that he is representing a swing district: The 8-term incumbent won by more than 20% on both occasions, even as a blue wave submerged many of his colleagues. While that suggests that LaTourette is entrenched enough to win over Democratic-leaning voters, the DCCC did not target him in either cycle and his opponents were under-funded. The situation could change in 2010, when Democrats will be looking for new districts to target. Michael Wager, the former chairman of the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority, is mentioned as a potential challenger.
| OK-05 | Open | Bush 64-36% | McCain 59%-41% |
OK-05 is a staunchly conservative district, so there is no reason for Republicans to panic about defending this seat, left open by Rep. Mary Fallin’s gubernatorial run. Yet, some Democrats are taking comfort in the presidential numbers: OK-05 is the only Oklahoma district in which Obama improved on Kerry’s performance, and he did so by a significant boost of 10%. OK-05 is also the only state district in which McCain received less than 60%. Does this suggest that the district is more receptive to electing a Democrat than other parts of the state?
Better still, Democrats have something resembling a bench: The district sends four Democrats to the state Senate. One of them is Andrew Rice, a 35-year old who made a name for himself by challenging Senator Inhofe in the 2008 cycle. Rice was demolished by a series of vicious ads that questioned his belonging in Oklahoma (some suggested that Inhofe was trying to imply that Rice was gay), but he was noticed by the netroots. The other state Senators are Minority Leader Charlie Laster, Debbie Leftwich and Constance Johnson. Another possible Democratic candidate is Oklahoma County District Attorney David Prater.
Yet, given how difficult it is for a Democrat to win a federal race in such red territory, the DCCC is sure to have difficulty recruiting any of these candidates. Democratic officials who have to run for re-election for their current seat in 2010 are particularly unlikely to run for the House since they would have to give up their job to do so. Rice is up for re-election in 2010, so he does not have the luxury to seek a promotion without risking to find himself jobless. Johnson, Prater and Leftwich are all in the same position. That leaves us with Laster, whose seat is not up until 2012, so he could run for Congress without risking his job.
| PA-15 | Rep. Charlie Dent | Kerry by 103 votes | Obama 56%-43% |
Despite the Democratic tsunami that submerged Pennsylvania in 2006 and in 2008, Charlie Dent’s opponents failed to get within single-digits. But the size of Obama’s triumph has put Dent near the top of the Democrats’ target list, and the DCCC is sure to deploy heavy artillery to recruit a top-tier candidate. For now, their efforts have not been successful: Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, who leads a city of over 70,000, all but closed the door to a run. 2008 nominee Sam Bennet has said that she might run, but that she’ll work with other Democrats to ensure Dent receives top-tier opposition.
| SC-02 | Rep. Joe Wilson | Bush 60%-39% | McCain 54%-45% |
Just as in SC-01, Rep. Joe Wilson suffered from a surprising a slump last fall, when he won 54% to 46% against Iraq War veteran Rob Miller. Miller now sounds like he is seriously considering seeking a rematch. Given that he proved himself a worthy candidate in 2008, Miller should be able to attract the DCCC’s attention (unlike what happened last year). But he would also have to deal with different circumstances than in 2008, when a boost in minority turnout helped Democrats perform well in SC-01 and in SC-02.
| TN-03 | Open | Bush 61%-38% | McCain 62%-37% |
Rep. Zach Wamp is running for Governor, and TN-03 is conservative enough that Republicans are heavily favored to keep his seat. And while Democrats have had some luck winning open seats in such red territory over the past few years, 2010 is unlikely to be as toxic for Republicans than the past two cycles were, and that will make it far more difficult for Democrats to pull stunning upsets in staunchly Republican districts.
At least, Democrats look like they have gotten a strong candidate to step in: former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flower will seek the Democratic nomination, and she will be helped by her experience as a statewide official. Her candidacy guarantees that TN-03 remains on the radar map as a race to watch. The DCCC’s second hope is that the GOP primary is a crowded and bruising affair: : A number of Republicans are already gearing for a run (Bradley County Sheriff Tim Gobble, state Senator Bo Watson and state Rep. Gerald McCormick) and the nominee will not be decided until August 2010, leaving him or her little time to turn around and prepare for the general election.
| TX-07 | Rep. John Culberson | Bush 64%-36% | McCain 58%-41% |
In the past cycle, TX-07 burst on the scene in the final weeks of the campaign - but Rep. Culberson was able to hold off Democrat Michael Skelly 56% to 42%. That means that he only slightly underperformed relatively to John McCain - and the district is conservative enough that he is clearly favored to win re-election in 2008. Yet, the past cycle’s spark of competitiveness makes it worth keeping the race on our watch list until we know whether Democrats can recruit a credible challenger.
| TX-10 | Rep. Michael McCaul | Bush 62%-38% | McCain 55%-45% |
TX-10 is a staunchly conservative district, but it is also one that has been trending leftward due to a rising Hispanic population. Democrats are expected to be highly competitive in the area down-the-line, but 2010 might be too early, just as 2008 was: McCaul’s re-election race became unexpectedly competitive in the final weeks of the 2008 cycle, but the DCCC never invested in the district and the incumbent survived by 11%.
Democrats have gotten a candidate to jump in the 2010 race: John T. “Jack” McDonald, a high-tech executive. As soon as McDonald jumped in, it looked like his main asset would be fundraising (including extensive self-funding) and that analysis has already been confirmed: In the first quarter of 2009, McDonald outraised McCaul 3:1. (No other challenger even came close.) On the other hand, McDonald donated to both of George W. Bush’s re-election campaign - and that certainly won’t get Democratic party activists excited.
| VA-01 | Rep. Rob Wittman | Bush 60%-39% | McCain 51%-48% |
In 2007, Democrats did little effort to win a special election that was held in VA-01 and they allowed then-state Delegate Rob Wittman to coast to victory. After all, this eastern Virginia district had given George Bush 60% of the vote in 2004, suggesting it was so conservative not to be ripe for a Democratic pick-up. Yet, the 2008 campaign showed that the Old Dominion’s political transformation has greatly impacted this district, which swung towards Obama by an eye-popping 18% at the presidential level. That was not enough to color the district blue, but it certainly should warn Wittman that VA-01 is not as conservative as he might have thought when he won the 2007 special election. Before Wittman has a chance to entrench himself in the district, Democrats would be well-advised to look for a top-tier recruit.
| VA-04 | Rep. Forbes | Bush 57%-43% | Obama 50%-49% |
VA-04, which makes up the Southeastern bloc of the state, is not a district we would expect to see on the list of potentially competitive races. Ever since his narrow 52% to 48% victory in a special election in 2001, Rep. Randy Forbes has faced no real competition: He ran unopposed in 2002 and 2006, and he received more than 60% in 2004 and 2008. Yet, the district took a leftward swing of 15% at the presidential level last fall, enough to give Barack Obama a slight majority and enough to put VA-04 on the radar screen. Forbes has proved himself entrenched enough to have the clear upper-hand, but a strong Democrat could give Forbes his first competitive race in 9 years.
| WV-02 | Rep. Shelley Moore Capito | Bush 57%-42% | McCain 55%-44% |
Once a Democratic bastion, West Virginia has rapidly drifted to the Republican column over the past decade - and Rep. Capito, a top Democratic target not so long ago, has looked increasingly safe. In 2008, Democrats were touting the candidacy of Anne Barth, who received substantial establishment support; Capito easily crushed Barth, 57% to 43%. Will a credible candidate even emerge in 2010?
Democrats’s main hope looks to be a potential Capito retirement or a Senate run (of course, that would please the DCCC at the DSCC’s expense). An open seat would make for quite a race: On the one hand, the GOP now has the upper-hand at the presidential level; on the other hand, the state remains staunchly Democratic at the local level and Capito is West Virginia’s only Republican congresswoman even if she represents the least conservative of the state’s three district.
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