28 Dem-held seats are rated “toss-up” or “lean retention,” categories that indicate that these races are already competitive. By contrast, I have given these most-vulnerable ratings to only 18 GOP-held seats. This differential is not surprising. Over the past two cycles, Democrats picked up a net 54 seats. Many of these were blue-leaning districts like IA-02 and NM-01 that Republicans wil be hard-pressed to recovered, but the vast majority were either swing districts or red-leaning districts that the GOP has an obvious shot at contesting.
Add to that the fact that incumbents are typically most vulnerable in their first re-election race and it becomes clear that the NRCC has a wealth of Democrats it can target. Yet, Republicans should be careful not to let themselves be distracted by marginally vulnerable seats. Unless Barack Obama’s approval rating declines so much that his party face a toxic environment, not all of these recently elected Democrats will be vulnerable enough to be defeated. Thus, the NRCC needs to carefully consider which districts should be targeted in priority.
Democratic seats, toss-up (5)
| AL-02 | Rep. Bobby Bright | Bush 67%-33% | McCain 63%-36% |
In 2008, Former Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright barely won a staunchly Republican open seat and he will now have to spend many cycles defending it before being allowed any rest. Compared to other lawmakers who are sitting on hostile territory (say, Minnick in ID-01 and Cao in LA-02), Bright has two things going for him: He did not win because of the flaws of his Republican opponent and Democrats knew he would be able to mount a competitive race as soon as they recruited him. This means that we should not consider Bright the underdog as soon as a credible Republican emerges.
But that is certainly not to say that Bright is not highly vulnerable in 2010, especially as the political circumstances will not favor Democrats as much as they did last year. We need to look no further than the length of the list of potential Republican candidates. State Rep. Jay Love, the party’s 2008 nominee, is considering a rematch. Also mentioned are Attorney General Troy King, former Treasurer George Wallace Jr. (the son of the former Governor), Dr. Craig Schmidtke, state Rep. Greg Wren, state Rep. Steve Clouse and state Rep. David Grimes.
| CO-04 | Rep. Betsy Markey | Bush 58%-41% | McCain 50%-49% |
In 2008, Betsy Markey ousted one of social conservatives’ congressional leaders, Marilyn Musgrave, by a whooping 12%. That impressive showing was as much the result of Musgrave’s extremism as it was of the Democrat’s campaign skills: Musgrave’s obsessive focus on battling gay rights did not fit the district’s quickly evolving political identity (Gore lost the district by 20%, Kerry by 17% and Obama by only 1%). Yet, the district remains Republican-leaning and that is enough to put Markey on the list of endangered incumbents.
In 2010, she will have to prove herself against a more electable Republican in a less favorable environment. State House minority whip Cory Gardner has already announced he will be running, a good recruit for the NRCC; University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero is also in the race. Other potential candidates include state Senator Greg Brophy, former state Senate Majority Leader Mark Hillman, former state Senator Steve Johnson and Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke.
| ID-01 | Rep. Walt Minnick | Bush 69%-30% | McCain 62%-36% |
Walt Minnick is arguably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He seats on one of the most heavily Republican districts represented by a Democrat, and the main reason for his 2008 victory was the inaptness of his opponent, then-Rep. Bill Sali. The disdain many Republican officials felt for him, Sali’s extreme conservatism and his immature behavior (Sali heckled Minnick’s chief of staff while the latter was delivering a television interview) and the year’s pro-Democratic environment created a perfect storm for Minnick.
Even under these perfect circumstances, the Democrat only prevailed by 2%. That shows just how conservative a district we are talking about. To the surprise of many, Treasurer Ron Crane announced he would not challenge Minnick but there are many other potential candidates, including Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, former Controller Keith Johnson, state GOP chairman Norm Semanko, state Senator John McGee and still more state legislators. A number of these Republicans would start the general election with the upper-hand. But Minnick could be thrown a lifeline if the GOP once again nominates Bill Sali: the former representative has filed a candidacy statement, and he could squeak by once again if the Republican primary is crowded.
| MD-01 | Rep. Frank Kratovil | Bush 62%-36% | McCain 58%-40% |
This staunchly conservative district was one of the most improbable sites for a Democratic pick-ups. Yet, Republican divisions allowed Democrats to score an upset. The seat was in the hands of Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, a moderate Republican whose centrist positioning so annoyed conservatives that they funded a successful primary challenger last year, state Sen. Andy Harris. That gave the DCCC hope they could pull an upset, and Gilchrest’s decision to endorse the Democratic nominee increased intra-Republican chaos. On November 4th, Frank Kratovil defeated Harris by less than 3,000 votes.
Given the district’s Republican tilt, Kratovil is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and the moderate Republicans that supported him in 2008 might desert him in 2010. The national environment is unlikely to be as toxic for the GOP as it was over the past two cycles, meaning that independent voters might no longer behave like partisan Democrats. Yet, Kratovil could catch a major break if the GOP once again nominates Harris, who recently announced he will seek a rematch. Sure, moderate Republicans might not be as angry at Harris as they were in 2008, but he is the principal reason MD-01 is now in Democratic hands. Another potential Republican candidate is State Senator EJ Pipkin.
| VA-05 | Rep. Tom Perriello | Bush 56%-43% | McCain 51%-48% |
Tom Perriello’s victory against Rep. Virgil Goode was arguably Election Night’s only big congressional upset. While we were keeping an eye on the race, Goode was considered the clear favorite and no more vulnerable than dozens of other Republican incumbents. While many such favored incumbents fell in 2006, Goode was the only one to lose in 2008. Combined with Obama’s statewide victory and the Democrats’ pick-ups in VA-02 and VA-11, this suggests the Democratic wave was stronger in Virginia than in other states and that Perriello benefited from a favorable environment.
For that alone, Republicans are sure to make VA-05 one of their top 2010 targets; after all, McCain did win this district. The party looks fairly certain to recruit a top challenger: State Sen. Robert Hurt and state Del. Rob Bell could jump in the race. Goode is also considering seeking a rematch, which could be the best scenario for Perriello: The controversial former lawmaker might not be suited to the district’s decreasingly conservative politics.
How much of Virginia’s blue drift was due to a short-term boost in young and minority turnout and how much was due to long-term changes in the state’s demographics? What will be Obama’s approval rating in the fall of 2010, and will independent voters still be sour on the GOP? Perriello should also be careful not to move too far rightward because he might lose a core group of supporters: Last year, he was boosted by the enthusiasm of the grassroots and of the blogosphere, but he has emerged as a conservative lawmaker - more than a 51%-48% district warrants. (He was one of the first House Democrats to announce his opposition to EFCA, for instance.)
Democratic seats, lean retention (23)
| AL-05 | Rep. Parker Griffith | Bush 60%-39% | McCain 61%-38% |
The district might be staunchly Republican at the presidential level, but voters are very comfortable electing a Democrat: AL-05 has not been represented by a Republican since… 1869! While the GOP pushed much of the South to realign in the 1990s, they were unable to unseat Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. Accordingly, Cramer’s retirement last year gave the NRCC shivers of excitement: This was their golden opportunity to finally claim AL-05. Unfortunately for Republicans, Cramer chose to retire in a strong Democratic year and the wave was felt strongly throughout Alabama; that allowed Parker Griffith to win the seat in a 4% victory.
While the district is very conservative, it is also traditionally Democratic and that will make Griffith hard to defeat. Yet, he should expect a top-tier challenge: Republicans know that Southern Democrats can entrench themselves very quickly if they make themselves look familiar (and nonthreatening) to voters, so they will work hard to oust him early. Furthermore, the district is getting more and more Republican at the presidential level and the Southern realignment will catch up with the district sooner or later.
| AZ-05 | Rep. Harry Mitchell | Bush 54%-45% | McCain 52%-47% |
Harry Mitchell was one of those Democrats unexpectedly swept in by the blue wave of 2006, and he would have been sure to face a top-tier challenge last year had the environment not been so toxic for Republicans. Mitchell faced former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who was at first considered a top recruit before fading away; he did manage to keep the incumbent to a single-digit victory.
Mitchell looks stronger heading into the 2010 cycle. Sure, AZ-05 remained red at the presidential level, but that is somewhat distorted by the fact that Arizona is John McCain’s home-state. And Mitchell is no longer a freshman lawmaker, which means that the advantage of incumbency should kick him more powerfully. That said, the Democrat is likely to face a strong challenger. Schweikert has already filed paperwork to seek a rematch; state Rep. Susan Bitter Smith and Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman could join him.
| CT-05 | Rep. Chris Murphy | 49-49 | Obama 56%-42% |
Looking to rebound after two calamitous election cycles in which they lost three House seats, Connecticut Republicans are hoping to contest CT-05, the least Democratic of the state’s five districts. And they just got a credible candidate to step in the race: Justin Bernier resigned from his position as an executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs to declare his candidacy for Congress.
That said, is Rep. Chris Murphy even vulnerable? CT-05 might be the least Democratic district of the state, but Obama still prevailed by 12%. Moreover, Murphy has proved to be a formidable politician who has scored two very impressive victories over the past two cycles. In 2006, he crushed then-Rep. Nancy Johnson by double-digits in what was supposed to be one of the tightest elections of the year. In 2008, the NRCC touted state Senator David Cappiello as one of its most promising recruits; by the summer of 2008, no one was paying any attention to CT-05 and Murphy crushed Cappiello 59% to 39%. Can Bernier do any better?
| FL-08 | Rep. Alan Grayson | Bush 55%-45% | Obama 53%-47% |
As Barack Obama did not improve on John Kerry’s Florida numbers as much as in other states, the magnitude of the shift in this particular district is worth pointing out; it corresponds to Democratic registration gains in the Orlando area and it helps explain Grayson’s success. Yet, Republicans rate the district as one of their top takeover opportunities and they are already targeting Grayson with radio ads.
Now a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Grayson is an outspoken liberal lawmaker. Republicans insist that this will lead to Grayson’s defeat in 2010, though FL-08 is certainly not conservative enough a district for a left-wing positioning to doom a representative’s re-election; just see the ease with which Peter DeFazio holds on to OR-04. After all, Grayson unseated an incumbent that was embroiled in no scandal after campaigning as a liberal - especially his staunch opposition to the Iraq War - throughout the 2008 campaign, and his populism could win him support in times of an economic crisis.
That said, Grayson is undoubtedly vulnerable. A congressman’s first re-election race is often the trickiest - and that is even more true when the incumbent is sitting on a swing district and when he looks relatively certain to face a top-tier challenger. Indeed, the GOP has a deep bench in the district: Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, state Senate Majority Whip Andy Gardiner, former state Senator Dan Webster and state Rep. Steve Precourt are mentioned as potential candidates, while talk-show host Todd Long is already running. If a Republican breeze starts to blow next year, FL-08 will quickly rise in these ratings.
| FL-24 | Rep. Suzanne Kosmas | Bush 55%-45% | McCain 51%-49% |
Convinced that Suzanne Kosmas’s 2008 victory was to Rep. Tom Feeney’s ethical problems, the GOP insists that this Orlando-based district will be a top-tier target next year. One look at the depth of the Republican field confirms that we could be in for fireworks: While the GOP’s state party chair Jim Greer announced he would not challenge Kosmas, state Senator Lee Constantine, state Rep. Dorothy Hukill and state Rep. Sandy Addams are all mentioned as contenders.
Yet, Kosmas is not a fluke. A two-term state representative, she was viewed as a top-tier challenger as soon as she stepped in the race and she ended up demolishing an incumbent by 16%; however much Feeney was weighed down by his ethical issues, for a challenger to receive 57% is an impressive feat. Kosmas could face a highly competitive challenge, but it will not be easy for the GOP to dislodge her.
| GA-12 | Rep. John Barrow | Bush 50%-49% | Obama 54%-45% |
GA-12 is the type of district the GOP needs to contest. Sure, it does not tilt red (Bush narrowly prevailed here in 2004, but Obama beat McCain by 9%), but the state legislature’s Republican majority drew it to be competitive in a controversial mid-district redistricting ploy. And their gamble almost worked in 2006: Rep. John Barrow barely survived a strong GOP challenge. Yet, the GOP barely contested the seat in 2008, allowing Barrow to cruise to a 32% victory. That could have been a fatal error for Republicans, as that kind of easy victory is sometimes all an endangered incumbent needs to entrench himself durably in a district.
We will soon know how solid Barrow’s position now is, as Republicans have found a candidate to run: retired Army Lt. Col. Wayne Mosley, who served in Afghanistan and Iraq and who has enough wealth to self-fund his candidacy. He has already indicated that he intends to spend half-a-million dollars of his own money. An important question will be African-American turnout: Higher participation rates in 2008 helped Obama soar to a 9% victory in this Bush district. Will black voters come out in equally high numbers in a non-presidential year?
| MI-07 | Rep. Mark Schauer | Bush 54%-45% | Obama 52%-46% |
The district has had quite an eventful few years. In 2006, conservative Tim Walberg unseated the more moderate Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz in the primary and went on to win the general election. Two years later, Democrat Mark Schauer scored Schwarz’s endorsement and benefited from the blue wave that submerged Michigan to defeat Walberg by 3%.
These peculiar circumstances do not mean that Schwarz’s election was a fluke and that the Democrat still has to prove himself. Indeed, the GOP certainly did not give up on this race last year and it mounted an aggressive effort to help Walberg: The NRCC alone spent more than $1 million in the district. Furthermore, Schauer is an experienced politician, having served as the state Senate’s Minority Leader before making it to the House.
On the other hand, MI-07 is a competitive district (as the presidential results attest to) and the GOP will make sure to challenge Schauer before he has a chance to entrench himself. Walberg has not ruled out a rematch; other potential challengers include state Senator Cameron Brown and Jackson County Prosecutor Hank Zavislak.
| NC-08 | Rep. Larry Kissell | Bush 54%-45% | Obama 53%-47% |
Underfunded and unnoticed by the DCCC, Larry Kissell came within 300 hundred votes of unseating Republican Rep. Robin Hayes in 2006; two years later, NC-08 was one of the DCCC’s top targets and Kissell rode the Democratic wave all the way to a 10% victory. Can he sustain such a performance in 2010, when he will not enjoy the help of Obama’s ground operation, of a favorable political environment and of huge boosts in minority turnout? NC-08 is a swing district, which means that Kissell is not the most vulnerable Democrat but also that he could easily stumble if the GOP plays its cards right. For now, Hayes is considering seeking a rematch; also mentioned is District Attorney John Snyder, a former aide to the late far-right Jesse Helms.
| NH-01 | Rep. Carol Shea-Porter | Bush 51%-48% | Obama 53%-47% |
Arguably the most unexpected winner in the 2006 midterms, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter proved herself yet again in 2008 in a rematch many people thought she would lose. Now, she can take comfort in the fact that she represents an Obama district. Yet, Republicans are already eying NH-01 as a potential pick-up; pointing out that the district voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and in 2004, they argue that Shea-Porter is a weak fundraiser, that she has not had time to entrench herself and that she will not benefit from the Democratic tide of the past two cycles. Those arguments might be true, but the GOP should be careful not to underestimate Shea-Porter, who has shown a strong ability to mobilize grassroots and surf on their energy.
Shea-Porter has already drawn a strong challenger: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has filed paperwork to challenger her. Guinta won the mayoralty of the state’s biggest city by defeating a three-term Democratic incumbent in 2005; that victory was viewed as a major upset and it suggests Guinta can win over Democratic-leaning voters. He might have to face a contested primary, however: former Health Commissioner John Stephen is also looking at the race, as is Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney.
| NH-02 | Open | Kerry 52%-47% | Obama 56%-43% |
Paul Hodes’s decision to run for Senate creates a tricky open seat for Democrats to defend. Until 2006, when Hodes defeated Republican Rep. Charlie Bass, NH-02 was occupied by a Republican representative for 88 of the past 95 years. That certainly suggests that the GOP has a chance to reclaim the district, particularly if Bass runs for his old seat as he has said he is considering. Bass first won the seat in 1994 against a Democratic incumbent, and he held it for the next twelve years. Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Bob Odell, former state Senator Chuck Morse and talk-show host Jennifer Horn, who lost to Hodes in 2008.
Yet, today’s New Hampshire is certainly no longer a Republican bastion, and there is no evidence that the state GOP can recover from the beating it took in 2006 and in 2008. Democrats have a strong bench, and the district leans Democratic enough that their nominee could start with the upper-hand. Katrina Swett is already in the race; a former aide of Joe Lieberman, she lost a House race to Bass in 2002 and she has a large amount of campaign cash stocked up from past campaigns. Others who are mentioned are state Senate President Sylvia Larsen, Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli, former state Senator Mark Fernald and state Rep. John DeJoie.
Depending on both parties’ recruiting and on the political environment heading into 2010, this open seat could easily become a toss-up.
| NJ-03 | Rep. John Adler | Bush 51%-49% | Obama 52%-47% |
Since John Adler has the comfort of representing a blue district, he should not be at the top of the GOP’s target list, but the GOP would undoubtedly love to target this swing district before he has a chance to entrench himself. Not only are Democrats currently in shaky ground in the Garden State, but NJ-03 has not recovered its pre-9/11 Democratic roots: Al Gore won the district by 9%, so Obama remained weaker than his party’s 2000 level.
Furthermore, Adler’s somewhat underwhelming 2008 campaign suggests he could be vulnerable in 2010. Last year, Democrats were touting Adler as a top-tier recruit even before Rep. Jim Saxton retired; yet, the open seat race remained close and Adler only won by 3% against Chris Myers, a Medford councilman. Myers is now considering seeking a rematch, and former Tabernacle Committeeman Justin Murphy is already in the running.
| NM-02 | Rep. Harry Teague | Bush 58%-41% | McCain 50%-49% |
When then-Rep. Steve Pearce announced that he would run for Senate, Democrats had some hope of contesting this open seat but no one expected their nominee Harry Teague to coast to a 10% victory. While it is the cycle’s Democratic environment that put Teague in an electable position, the determinant factor might have been money: the DCCC poured in more than $1,5 million and Teague self-funded much of his campaign while the GOP went dark in the final weeks before Election Day.
Yet, the district nevertheless voted for John McCain; this is conservative territory that Teague will be hard-pressed to defend in a less favorable environment. And Teague could be in for a very tough race if Pearce, who was crushed in the Senate race, seeks his old job back: He has said that he will run either for the House or for Governor, and he would be a formidable challenger if he chooses the former.
| NY-20 | Rep. Scott Murphy | Bush 53%-47% | Obama 51%-48% |
When Kirsten Gillibrand was tapped for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat in January, the special election looked like a perfect opportunity for Republicans to regain some political footing. But the campaign did not unfold as the GOP was hoping for, and first-time candidate Scott Murphy prevailed by 400 votes. (The counting lasted more than three weeks.) The GOP remains far below the support it used to enjoy in this traditionally conservative district while Democrats managed to keep the support of voters they seduced in 2006 and in 2008: Along with the rest of upstate New York, this district is quickly abandoning its Republican roots and the GOP’s registration edge is now nominal only.
The GOP will make sure to challenge Murphy in 2010, but the special election was obviously a better bet. Murphy proved a capable candidate, and that will make him a hard to beat as an incumbent - not to mention that the district is clearly drifting leftward. Tedisco has said he would be unlikely to seek a rematch, but Republicans have other candidates they could run: state Senator Betty Little would probably be the strongest contender, while former Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell and former gubernatorial candidate John Faso are also mentioned.
| NY-29 | Rep. Eric Massa | Bush 56%-42% | McCain 51%-48% |
In 2008, Eric Massa won an impressive victory against a Republican incumbent in red-leaning territory. Will he be able to defend his seat in a less favorable environment? What should reassure Massa is that New York’s Republican Party is in far worse shape than the GOP nationally and it looks to be in no position to regain its footing any time soon. On the other hand, NY-29 is one of only three New York districts to vote for John McCain, so Massa represents a more conservative area than the other Democrats who picked-up upstate districts (whether NY-19, NY-20, NY-24 or NY-25) and that makes him an obvious target.
Massa caught a big break last month when Republican Assemblyman Brian Kolb was elected as the Assembly’s Minority Leader. Kolb had been planning a congressional run and would have been a formidable challenger, but he made it clear that he would stay in Albany now that he acquired new responsibilities in the state legislature.
That leaves the GOP with no front-runner, but there certainly is a long list of potential candidates. State Senators Cathy Young and George Whinner, Assemblyman Tom O’Mara, Corning Mayor Tom Reed, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli are all mentioned.
| OH-15 | Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy | Bush 50%-50% | Obama 54%-45% |
Mary Jo Kilroy proved a somewhat disappointing candidate for Democrats. In 2006, she was favored to win but fell short by 1,000 votes. Two years later, she was once again favored but she underperformed relatively to Obama’s and was only declared the winner after provisional ballots tallied a month after Election Day put her on top. Will Kilroy be able to turn in stronger results as an incumbent?
The district’s blue lean gives her the upper-hand, but OH-15 is not Democratic enough for Kilroy to survive if she continues to underperform. On the other hand, the district has been trending leftward (Al Gore lost it by 8% in 2000), and Kilroy could hold it for a long time if she manages to entrench herself. The NRCC knows it is important not to let that happen, and they are already targeting the incumbent: Kilroy was one of only 9 Democrats targeted by a wave of radio ads released in April.
| OH-01 | Rep. Steve Driehaus | Bush 51%-49% | Obama 55%-44% |
After surviving a number of tough challenges over the years, Rep. Steve Chabot ended up to the district’s changing political allegiance: OH-01 swung to the blue column by a dramatic 13% between 2004 and 2008, which is a far larger change than the statewide swing. Then-state Senator Steve Driehaus was a strong challenger ready to pick up the pieces, and he beat the incumbent by 5%.
Chabot has announced that he will seek a rematch in 2010. His name recognition, campaign skills and fundraising networks should be enough to put Driehaus on the defensive and test the resilience of the Obama coalition: How well can Driehaus hold in a less favorable environment and with lower turnout among the Democratic base - especially among the district’s significant minority population?
On the other hand, there is no reason for Driehaus to start trembling. OH-01 is a swing district that Democrats had long contested, and Chabot was certainly not an unsuspecting victim of the blue wave; both parties invested in this race, and Driehaus won a hard-fought battle. How will Chabot convince voters to change their mind - especially considering that he will have to appeal to Obama voters?
| PA-03 | Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper | Bush 53%-47% | McCain by 17 votes |
While Kathy Dahlkemper’s re-election race could prove a challenge if voters go sour on the Democrats’ next year, it’s not like she was simply swept in by last year’s blue wave: She was touted as a strong recruit as soon as she jumped in the race, she fought a tough campaign in which both party committees poured in a lot of money and she defeated a six-term incumbent who was not tainted by scandal; furthermore, the presidential results attest to the fact that the wave was not felt as strongly in PA-03 as in other parts of the state.
While that last reason suggests Dahlkemper does not entirely owe her election to Bush’s unpopularity, it is also a sign of trouble for the the incumbent: PA-03 might be a swing district that essentially featured a presidential tie in 2008, but it is also becoming more Republican relatively to the the state-at-large. Such socially conservative territory could be tough for the party to defend if voters come to disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. The NRCC is already targeting Dahlkemper with radio ads, but it remains to be seen whether a top GOP challenger will emerge.
| PA-04 | Rep. Jason Altmire | Bush 54%-45% | McCain 55%-44% |
Look no further than the presidential numbers for confirmation that Jason Altmire is vulnerable: As the rest of Pennsylvania swung towards Barack Obama by 8%, PA-04 gave McCain a bigger victory than it did to Bush - as dramatic a sign of Western Pennsylvania’s rightward drift as any. At least, Altmire can take comfort in the fact that he won a double-digit victory against Melissa Hart, the former representative who he unseated in 2006. But how will he fare in a less favorable environment in 2010?
Republicans believe they have found a potential candidate strong enough to unseat Altmire: state House Republican Whip Mike Turzai. If Turzai declines, however, the GOP could have to turn to a second-tier candidate: Hart has already said she will not seek a rematch, and state Senator Jane Orie has ruled out a congressional run.
| PA-10 | Rep. Chris Carney | Bush 60%-40% | McCain 54%-45% |
Chris Carney’s 2006 victory was largely due to the scandals that surrounded Republican Rep. Donald Sherwood, who was accused of having assaulted his mistress. Given the district’s heavily conservative nature, Carney looked likely to be a one-term representative, but he benefited from yet another Democratic wave in 2008 to easily defeat a credible Republican challenger. Incumbents are typically most vulnerable during their first re-election race, and the GOP might have missed its best opportunity. Was that one re-election race enough to entrench Carney?
Before we find out the answer to that question, we will have to see whether the GOP can field a top contender. There is one elected official mentioned as a potential candidate (state Senator Lisa Baker) but she would have to give up her legislative seat to challenge Carney; other options are former deputy Auditor General Joe Peters, optometrist David Haire, attorney Matthew Brann and businessman Dan Meuser.
| PA-11 | Rep. John Kanjorski | Kerry 53%-47% | Obama 57%-42% |
PA-11 is a Democratic district, and the GOP’s takeover prospects are due solely to the longtime incumbent’s vulnerability. Kanjorski trailed for much of the 2008 cycle, and the millions that the DCCC was pouring in did not allow him to build a lead; by November, many expected him to lose, but Obama’s coattails proved too strong for Republican nominee Lou Barletta.
It would be political malpractice for the GOP not to mount another all-out offensive in 2010, when the political environment should be less toxic for Republicans. Barletta is mulling another run, though it is possible that his hardliner profile contributed to Kanjorski’s survival; after all, a Republican needs to not be too controversial to appeal to Democratic-leaning voters who are turned off by Kanjorski. The 2010 picture is complicated by the prospect that the incumbent might face a competitive primary challenge; Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien is mulling the race.
| TX-17 | Rep. Chet Edwards | Bush 70%-30% | McCain 67%-32% |
TX-17 is the most Republican district held by a Democrat - and we are talking very Republican: George W. Bush received 70% of the vote in TX-17 and McCain did almost as well. Chet Edwards has shown incredible political resilience in holding on to this seat even as it has drifted rightward - especially after 2003: The district became much more conservative because of Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting, and Edwards is the only Democrat targeted by DeLay’s plan who survived the 2004 elections.
Unfortunately for Edwards, the district is too hostile to his party for him to ever be allowed any rest. In 2008, he only prevailed by 7% against an under-funded and little-noticed opponent - a testament to the fact that danger could come anytime and the slightest breeze at the GOP’s back could be enough to do Edwards in. His 2008 opponent Rob Curnock is planning on seeking a rematch; other declared or possible candidates include businessmen Darren Yancy, developers and veterans; the only elected official who is mentioned is state Senator Steve Ogden.
| VA-02 | Rep. Glenn Nye | Bush 58%-42% | Obama 51%-49% |
Thelma Drake survived the blue wave of 2006, but the Democratic tsunami that submerged the GOP in this district (Obama improved Kerry’s performance by 18%) helped Glenn Nye score a 4% victory. VA-02 has an important military population and it is conservative enough that Nye will be in for a fight in 2010. Former Rep. Thelma Drake has ruled out seeking a rematch, but there are other potential challengers: state Sen. Ken Stolle, state Sen. Frank Wagner and Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms are mentioned.
VA-02 has an important military population, and Nye will have to deal with lower Democratic turnout, a less favorable environment and the absence of Obama’s ground operation. On the other hand, Democrats held this seat from 1987 to 2000 so the GOP should not take comfort in recent history.
Democratic seats, potentially competitive (40)
| AR-01 | Rep. Marion Berry | Bush 52%-47% | McCain 59%-38% |
Rep. Marion Berry has had little reason to be concerned about keeping his job since he first won his seat in 1996; yet, the district has taken a dramatic swing rightward over the past decade. While AR-01 voted for Al Gore by 2% in 2000, it chose George W. Bush by 5% in 2004 and John McCain by 21% in 2008! Needless to say, very few districts have taken a similar path over the past decade; this evolution (mirrored across this once proudly Democratic state) opens the door to a credible Republican congressional challenge.
The NRCC is determined to test how loyal Arkansas remains to its Democratic history, and they are already targeting Berry with radio ads that accuse him him of being too close to Barack Obama. Yet, Republicans need a top-notch candidate and that is where they could face a problem as they have an extremely thin bench in the state (Democrats enjoy super-majorities in both chambers of the legislature and they have a hold on all statewide offices). The GOP is already touting businessman Rick Crawford, known in the district for his agricultural broadcasting and who has formed an exploratory committee.
| AR-02 | Rep. Vic Snyder | Bush 51%-48% | McCain 54%-44% |
Of the three Arkansas districts held by Democrats, AR-02 gave McCain his lowest percentage - an interesting reversal given that it is also the only one of the three George W. Bush won in 2004. While that suggests that the district’s rightward swing is less brutal than its neighbors’, McCain’s 10% victory is enough to endanger the Democrats’ hold on the district. While Snyder has held the seat long enough (since 1996) to hope not to face a competitive race, the GOP could have a golden opportunity to contest the race if Snyder leaves the House, as he is rumored to be considering. The NRCC is trying to pressure Snyder into retirement by running robocalls in his district; could the threat of a competitive race be enough to force Snyder out?
| AZ-01 | Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick | Bush 54%-46% | McCain 54%-44% |
When embattled Rep. Rick Renzi announced that he would not seek re-election, it was clear that AZ-01 would be a tough open seat for Republicans to defend; but we still expecting the GOP to make some kind of effort to hold on to the seat. Instead, the race disappeared from the radar screen months before Election Day and Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick coasted to a 17% victory even as McCain won the district. Will Republicans make more of an effort in 2010?
While McCain scored a 10% victory, keep in mind that his numbers were boosted by the fact that Arizona is his home-state; the district is best considered as swing, and the GOP will not be able to worry Kirkpatrick without a top-tier challenger. State Rep. Bill Konopnicki is reportedly considering running, but he is saying he will only run if he estimates the GOP is in a position to reclaim a majority in 2010. Needless to say, Kirkpatrick doesn’t have much to worry about from him.
| AZ-08 | Rep. Gabrielle Giffords | Bush 53%-46% | McCain 52%-46% |
Had John McCain not been the Republican’s nominee in 2008, Giffords would surely have had the comfort of representing a more Democratic district. But the fact that she sits on a red-leaning seat is the only reason to consider her vulnerable, as she more than proved her political strength in the last cycle. The GOP recruited state Senate President Tim Bee to challenge Giffords in her first re-election race; but the incumbent proved a prodigious fundraiser and dispatched Bee by a convincing 12%.
In 2010, the political environment might be more favorable for a GOP challenge, but Republicans will be hard pressed to find as credible an opponent and it is always tougher to beat an incumbent past her first re-election race. Iraq veteran Jesse Kelly is the only Republican to have declared his candidacy for now.
| CA-11 | Rep. Jerry McNerry | Bush 54%-45% | Obama 54%-45% |
When Jerry McNerny unseated Republican Rep. Richard Pombo in 2006, the GOP insisted that the district’s red lean would allow them to easily reclaim the district in 2008. Yet, on November 4th, mini-earthquake shook the district: Obama by 9%, a remarkable turn-around of 18% compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004! Unsurprisingly, McNerny benefited from this changing environment; he defeated his Republican opponent Dean Andal 55% to 45%.
These results showed that the district is no longer red - and that makes McNerny a much safer incumbent than anyone expected him to be. What the GOP needs is a non-generic candidate who can seduce decreasingly conservative voters to dump an incumbent, and California Republicans have never been good at finding such contenders.
| CA-47 | Rep. Loretta Sanchez | Bush 50%-49% | Obama 6o%-38% |
Ever since unseating a Republican incumbent by 1% in 1996, Loretta Sanchez has easily won re-election. Yet, the NRCC is convinced that the district is open to voting for a Republican; convinced that Assemblyman Van Tran is the man who can unseat her, GOP officials celebrated his decision to form an exploratory committee. Yet, I am somewhat puzzled by the GOP’s excitement: This is too blue a district for a Democratic incumbent who has shown no prior sign of vulnerability to be that endangered. After all, it’s not like Sanchez has unexpectedly underperformed in recent cycles: She received more than 60% against a well-funded challenger in 2006 and she hit 70% in 2008.
George W. Bush’s 2004 victory in the district was surely appetizing for Republicans, but California has moved to the left since then and Gore and Obama’s big victories suggest that the GOP can only contest the race in the best of conditions. The GOP could have a shot if the economic situation creates a toxic political environment for Democrats, but Tran’s best hope is for Sanchez not to run for re-election. (She has opened the door to a statewide run.) Even then, Democrats would have the upper-hand, but Tran would make the race competitive.
| CO-03 | Rep. John Salazar | Bush 55%-44% | McCain 50%-47% |
John Salazar picked up this red-leaning district in an open seat race 2004. Over the next two cycles, Republicans insisted Salazar was vulnerable but the Democrat had little trouble winning re-election; he received 62% of the vote last November. Salazar is generally considered to have proven himself enough not to be a top target in future cycles, but his past results should not obscure the fact that this remains a conservative district won by John McCain. District Attorney Martin Beeson, first elected in 2005, has already filed paperwork to challenge Salazar.
| CT-04 | Rep. Jim Himes | Kerry 52%-46% | Obama 60%-40% |
After surviving tough battles for several cycles in a row, Rep. Chris Shays - one of the most liberal Republican congressmen and the last GOP representative from New England - fell to Jim Himes in 2008. The district is so blue that Himes is the heavy favorite to win re-election; deprived of Shays’s incumbency, how are Republicans supposed to stay competitive in a district that gave Obama 60% of the vote?
On the other hand, it is worth keeping an eye on this race for now. Himes is a freshman, and incumbents are most vulnerable in their first re-election race. Also, the district has a history of voting Republican: Himes’s 2008 victory made him the district’s first Democratic representative since 1969! Two prominent Republicans are expressing their interest in challenging Rep. Jim Himes: State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and state Senate Deputy Minority Leader Rob Kane. Either could make CT-04 a race to watch. (John McKinney is the son of Stewart McKinney, who represented the district until 1987.)
| FL-02 | Rep. Allen Boyd | Bush 54%-46% | Bush 54%-46% |
One of the Democratic caucus’s most conservative members - and the only one to support Bush’s plan to privatize social security - Allen Boyd has had little trouble winning re-election in recent cycles, frustrating the GOP since he sits atop a conservative-leaning districts. The race could become more competitive in 2010, as state Senator Al Lawson has announced that he will challenge Boyd in the Democratic primary; Boyd is favored to win the nomination, but this situation could embolden Republicans to field a credible challenger to take advantage of Democratic divisions. (Florida’s Democratic primary occurs in late August.)
| FL-22 | Rep. Ron Klein | Kerry 52%-48% | Obama 52%-48% |
After running an impressive campaign to win one of the most hotly contested races of the 2006 cycle, Klein won his first re-election race by a comfortable 10% against Allen West, a retired Army officer. Yet, he also got a warning sign: Even though Obama improved on Kerry’s statewide performance by 7%, the numbers stayed the same within the district. Klein now faces a rematch against West, who has already announced his candidacy. (Republicans were hoping to draw in Adam Hasner, but the Majority Leader of the state House has said he will not challenge Klein.)
One wild card is the possibility that Klein runs for Senate; often mentioned as a potential candidate, he has not ruled out a statewide bid. An open seat race would obviously be hotly contested, but it is looking increasingly unlikely that Klein will retire. For one, Governor Charlie Crist looks likely to jump in the Senate race; second, Rep. Meek is collecting establishment support, which somewhat closes to the door for Klein.
| GA-08 | Rep. Jim Marshall | Bush 61%-39% | McCain 56%-43% |
After barely surviving his re-election race in 2006, Jim Marshall coasted to re-election last year against an opponent the GOP was initially touting. The district is conservative enough that Marshall will never be fully safe, yet he has shown enough political resilience that he can hope for a respite in 2010. On the other hand, the NRCC will surely pay attention if a credible challenger emerges so we should keep an eye on recruitment news.
| HI-01 | Open | Kerry 53%-47% | Obama 70%-28% |
Rep. Neil Abercombie is running for the open gubernatorial race, which has led to an open seat race. Democrats are heavily favored to keep the seat, but Republicans point to John Kerry’s narrow victory to insist that the right Republican would have a shot. And the GOP is convinced that it has found the perfect candidate: Honolulu city Councilman Charles Djou, who started raising money for a House race in October 2007. (Abercrombie was also a city councilman before winning his House seat.) Djou has met with NRCC officials and has already been endorsed by Governor Lingle. Republicans are so enthused that they have already included HI-01in the list of districts they have been targeting with radio ads.
That said, nothing should obscure the fact that the district gave Obama 70% of the vote. Djou will have to prove that he has a shot at winning before we treat this race as competitive - not to mention that Democrats have a very solid bench. Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann is mentioned as a possible candidate, as are state Senate President Collen Hanabusa and former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell. All of them are strong enough that it remains to be seen whether Djou could even make the race competitive.
| IL-08 | Rep. Melissa Bean | Bush 56%-44% | Obama 56%-43% |
After Melissa Bean proved one of the Democrats’ few bright spot in the 2004 cycle, Republicans were convinced that she would be a one-time fluke and that they would be able to reclaim the district in upcoming cycles. Yet, Bean proved a resilient incumbent and a prodigious fundraiser; protected by the pro-Democratic environment, she comfortably won her first two re-election races. Now, not only is she better entrenched, but her district colored itself very blue last fall as Obama improved Kerry’s performance by a massive 25%. Republicans have far more attractive districts to target in 2010 and Bean could very well get a pass.
| IL-11 | Rep. Debbie Halvorson | Bush 53%-46% | Obama 53%-45% |
IL-11 featured an open seat race in 2008, and it soon became one of the Democrats’ top opportunities: Republicans had to settle to settle on a last-minute entry who managed to keep the race close for a while by spending a lot of money but ended up losing by a massive 58% to 35%. Republicans were unable to take full advantage of Halvorson’s problems last year, and they have already started to test her in preparation for 2010.
Yet, Republicans are unlikely to make this a priority unless they recruit a top-tier challenger and unless the environment is favoring them. Two challengers are already in the race: real estate investor Henry W. Meers, who could self-fund part of his campaign and Iraq War veteran Adam Kinzinger. Both would have a shot if Halvorson stumbles, but neither is strong enough to ensure a competitive race.
| IL-14 | Rep. David Foster | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 55%-44% |
Last spring, former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s resignation allowed Democrat David Foster to pick-up IL-14 in a special election, dealing a symbolic blow to the Republican leadership. The GOP’s defense was that the loss of the district was due to Oberweis being too flawed a candidate. In 2010, they will be eager to prove that they can do better with a stronger nominee. (One Republican who has already acknowledged his interest is Ethan Hastert, the former Speaker’s 31-year old son; Hastert’s connections could make him a well-funded candidate, but his last name and his years as a Cheney staffer connect him to a past that district voters soundly rejected in 2008.)
Yet, the politics of IL-14 changed dramatically last fall. When Foster won the special election, we thought of the district as a conservative-leaning seat but he now enjoys the comfort of representing a blue district. Sure, the eye-popping magnitude of the district’s transformation is due to the fact that Obama comes from this state - but that also means that the President’s popularity could protect Illinois Democrats next year.
| IN-02 | Rep. Joe Donnelly | Bush 56%-43% | Obama 54%-45% |
When Joe Donnelly beat a Republican incumbent in 2006, few would have predicted that he would soon have the comfort of representing a Democratic district. Yet, Indiana’s incredible swing leftward has colored IN-02 blue - and decisively so. The district’s unexpected willingness to vote for Democrats makes the conservative Donnelly looks far safer today than he did two years ago. On the other hand, Indiana Republicans are sure to mount a counter-offensive in 2010. Donnelly looks more vulnerable than Hill (and arguably than Ellsworth), so he should expect some action in upcoming cycles. Mishawaka Mayor Jeff Rea is mentioned as a potential challenger.
| IN-08 | Rep. Brad Ellsworth | Bush 62%-38% | McCain 51%-47% |
Nicknamed the Bloody Eighth, this district has a history of highly competitive congressional races but Brad Ellsworth has had no difficulty winning his first two races. In 2006, he scored the biggest victory of any challenger defeating an incumbent; last year, he prevailed by 30% against a challenger the NRCC started the cycle touting. IN-08 remains conservative enough that a top-tier Republican challenger might endanger Ellsworth, but the incumbent is highly favored to win re-election now that Indiana took a wild swing leftward last fall.
| IN-09 | Rep. Baron Hill | Bush 59%-40% | McCain 50%-49% |
Since 2002, this district has featured four races between Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002, 2006 and 2008, while Sodrel briefly picked-up the seat in 2004. With Sodrel is unlikely to seek yet another rematch, it looks like Hill will be able to enjoy some tranquility in the 2010 cycle. Along with the rest of Indiana, the district took a wild swing leftward last fall and the GOP can’t even rely on the district’s red lean to defeat Hill anymore. Two Republicans have already announced a run - attorney Todd Young and real instate investor Travis Hankins - but neither should prove much competition.
| KS-03 | Rep. Dennis Moore | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 51%-48% |
This is a Republican district - one Bush won twice by double-digits - and Moore has been a longtime target of the GOP. The 2008 presidential results are a mini-earthquake that suggest that voters are even more comfortable voting for a Democrat in a federal Democrat than had been previously thought. The Democrats’ main worry was that Dennis Moore would retire, as an open seat would be an extremely tough hold. After spending a few weeks hinting that he would not run for re-election, Moore ended up announcing that he would run for re-election - a huge relief for Democrats.
| KY-03 | Rep. John Yarmuth | Kerry 51%-49% | Obama 56%-43% |
After defeating perennial Democratic target Anne Northup in 2006, John Yarmuth won a rematch by a triumphant 18% margin in 2008 - a blow to the GOP’s insistence that Yarmuth was a weak candidate who only prevailed because of the Democratic wave. In 2010, Republicans will have another opportunity to prove their point - and this time they can hope that they will benefit from a better environment than in 2006 and in 2008. Yet, KY-03 is a Democratic district that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. The GOP’s prospects of holding on to the district were predicated on Northup’s popularity; now that she is gone, can Republicans hope to keep the seat on the radar screen?
| LA-03 | Rep. Charlie Melancon | Bush 58%-41% | McCain 61%-38% |
The NRCC has been working very hard to ensure that Charlie Melancon receives a top-tier challenger in 2010: They have already launched three waves of radio advertisement targeting him - one in February, one in April and one in May; that last wave of ads only targeted 5 Democrats. GOP officials are also talking to local Republicans to ensure Melancon draws a challenger; state Rep. Nickie Monica is mentioned as a possible contender.
In short, the GOP is trying to make sure not to commit the same mistake as in 2008, when they let a sophomore representative representing a staunchly conservative district run unopposed. Melancon might look like he has entrenched himself, but LA-03 has been rapidly drifting rightward (Al Gore lost by 7%, Obama by 23%), putting Melancon in a dangerous position. A wild card is the possibility that Melancon runs for Senate; he has explicitly left the door open to the idea and an open seat race would be very difficult for Democrats to defend.
| MI-09 | Rep. Gary Peters | Bush 51%-49% | Obama 56%-43% |
Even if Gary Peters was helped by the Democratic wave that submerged Michigan, the ease with which he unseated eight-term congressman Joe Knollenberg speaks to his political skills and to the district’s sharp leftward turn. Peters’s victory is not a fluke: Formerly two-term state Senator, he would have been a strong contender no matter the political environment and he has shown that he is determined to build up his profile by crafting himself an active role ever since joining the House.
Yet, Republicans sound confident that they can reclaim the seat and that Oakland County is too swing an area to give itself to one party. They also point to the fact that MI-09 is an affluent district with a significant white-collar constituency, which could fuel an upper-income backlash against Peters. Whether or not Peters is vulnerable, it will not be easy for the GOP to reclaim the seat because Peters is an experienced politician who sits on a district Obama won by 13%. At the very least, Republicans need a top-tier candidate; mentioned as potential candidates are former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday, Oakland County Sheriff Michel Bouchard and state Rep. Marty Knollenberg,
| MN-01 | Rep. Tim Walz | Bush 51%-47% | Obama 51%-47% |
Tim Walz was mentioned as a possible gubernatorial contender, but he announced in mid-December that he would not launch a statewide run. The seat is purple enough that Walz will never be fully safe, but Democrats are breathing much easier now that the seat will not be open.
| MS-01 | Rep. Travis Childers | Bush 62%-37% | McCain 62%-38% |
One of three Democrats to be elected in a special election in the spring of 2008, Travis Childers arguably enjoyed the most stunning victory as his Republican opponent was the only one not to have obvious flaws. Yet, Childers comfortably won the special election and then scored a 10% re-election victory in November - even as McCain was crushing Obama by 24%.
That MS-01 is a staunchly conservative district does not mean Childers is headed to certain defeat - other Democrats in similar position have been able to hold on to their seat for a long time, and MS-01 has a history of voting Democratic at the local level - but it is certainly enough to put a huge target on his back. The GOP is trying to recruit state Sen. Alan Nunnelee and state Sen. Merle Flowers, who have already said they will not run against each other. Either one would be a top-tier challenger. (2008 nominee Greg Davis has ruled out a run.)
| NC-11 | Rep. Heath Shuler | Bush 57%-42% | McCain 52%-47% |
Heading into the 2010 cycle, Democrats were primarily worried that Heath Shuler would run for statewide office; an open seat would be extremely tough for the DCCC to defend. But Shuler recently ruled out challenging Senator Burr and announced he would seek a third-term. Sure, Shuler will never be fully safe given that he is seating in a conservative district, but he should also prove difficult for Republicans to beat.
If Shuler manages to retain this district for a long time, the GOP’s 2008 fiasco should be held responsible: Republican nominee Carl Mumpower proved to be a disaster, and Shuler cruised to a 62% to 38% victory. To allow such a vulnerable incumbent to score such a large victory in his first run for re-election is political malpractice on the GOP’s part: That 62% could prove to be all Shuler needed to durably entrench himself.
| NM-01 | Rep. Martin Heinrich | Kerry 51%-48% | Obama 60%-40% |
For many cycles, Democrats tried to unseat Rep. Heather Wilson, a moderate Republican who survived the 2006 cycle by the narrowest of margins. In 2008, Wilson decided to run for Senate, creating a tough open seat for her party. Republicans believed they had found a top-tier candidate, but New Mexico’s huge leftward swing was too much for Darren White to handle: He outperformed John McCain, but he lost by 12% against Albuquerque Councilman Martin Heinrich.
Now that the district is finally in Democratic hands, it is hard to imagine the GOP making much of an effort to take it back. Obama did receive 60% in the district after all, so this should not be a prime target - not to mention that New Mexico Republicans are more likely to focus on NM-02, another seat Democrats picked-up last year but that also voted for McCain. In somewhat of a blow to the GOP, White is ruling out a repeat run. Funeral homes owner Kevin Daniels is positioned for a run; he could self-fund a run - allowing the NRCC to seat it out and see whether Heinrich shows any sign of vulnerability before intervening.
| NV-03 | Rep. Dina Titus | Bush 50%-49% | Obama 55%-43% |
Freshman Rep. Dina Titus now sits on blue-enough territory that she should not be on the list of the GOP’s top targets. After all, she won a very difficult race last year: Unlike those Democrats who easily picked-up an open seat the GOP barely defended, Titus beat an entrenched Republican incumbent with a moderate reputation and statewide ambitions. Add to that the fact that Titus led Democrats in the state Senate for more than a decade, and it is obvious that she is no political lightweight.
Yet, Republicans look confident that they can contest this district; they included Titus on a list of 9 Democrats they targeted in a recent wave of radio ads. They will first have to recruit a credible challenger. Former Rep. Porter is not expected to seek a rematch; he has taken another job, and he is more likely to run for Senate if he chooses to get back in politics.
| NY-19 | Rep. John Hall | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 51%-47% |
John Hall was one of 2006’s unexpected victors, which made Republicans confident that they could defeat him in 2008. But they failed to land a strong challenger after a series of recruitment failures, and Hall coasted to re-election. In 2010, the GOP looks like it will at least recruit a decent challenger: Assemblyman Greg Ball, who is only 31, is running against Hall.
While this district looks like prime target territory (it is historically Republican, Obama only received 51%, Hall has not had time to entrench himself), the GOP will have to swim against the powerful Democratic tide that has submerged upstate New York over the past few years. As the NY-20 special election demonstrated, it is not proving easy for state Republicans to rebound; will New Yorkers prove more open to voting for a conservative next year? Much could depend on factors that Greg Ball cannot control: Who will top the Democrats’ gubernatorial and senatorial level? Will Paterson’s popularity have recovered? How will voters feel about the economy and who to blame about the crisis?
| NY-24 | Rep. Michael Arcuri | Bush 53%-47% | Obama 51%-48% |
Last fall, while we were all monitoring Republican incumbents to see whether any would fall to an unexpected upset, Election Night’s biggest shocker almost came from NY-24: In a race that no one was paying attention to, Rep. Michael Arcuri spent much of the night trailing and only prevailed against Republican Richard Henna by 4%. Arcuri might have survived, but that close call put a big target on his back for upcoming cycles as the GOP will be eager to test Arcuri’s vulnerabilities.
The NRCC is already airing radio ads in the districts (Arcuri was one of only 9 Democrats targeted by a wave of ads back in April) and they are also working to recruit Hanna into seeking a rematch; the Republican will surely benefit from more national help than he did last year. On the other hand, the GOP is now deprived of the element of surprise and Arcuri will work more diligently towards his next re-election race.
| NY-25 | Rep. Dan Maffei | Kerry 50%-48% | Obama 56%-43% |
Dan Maffei looks to be in a solid position: He easily won this blue-leaning open seat in 2008, New York’s Republican Party is in a pitiful state and there are more obviously vulnerable districts the GOP can target in the state. Yet, it is worth monitoring the race as Maffei will be facing his first re-election race and as Republicans are hoping that Maffei’s ties to embattled Rep. Rangel hurt his image. Paul Bertan, a former Conservative Party leader who is now a Republican, has announced that will run against Maffei but he is unlikely to emerge as a serious candidate: At 73, he is past the age at which challengers mount successful underdog congressional campaigns.
| OH-16 | Rep. John Boccieri | Bush 54%-46% | McCain 50%-48% |
Facing a fellow state Senator in a competitive race in red-leaning territory, Democrat John Boccieri scored a convincing 10% victory to pick-up the seat. Sure, he benefited from a favorable environment but he did more than ride Obama’s coattails since he received 7% more him. Unfortunately for Boccieri, he also represents a McCain district. That’s enough to the GOP to pay more attention to the Democrat than he cares for.
Yet, the NRCC has for now refrained from including Boccieri in the list of incumbents targeted by radio ads and no strong Republicans are being brandied around as potential candidates. The GOP’s 2008 nominee, Kirk Schuring, is term-limited out of the state legislature in 2010, so he would have nothing to lose in seeking a rematch.
| OH-18 | Rep. Zach Space | Bush 57%-43% | McCain 52%-45% |
Zach Space has won his two first races with surprising ease. In 2006, he was helped by the scandal that submerged then-Rep. Bob Ney, but he managed to score an impressive 20% victory last year. The GOP looks determined to test Space next year. In mid-April, when the NRCC targeted 33 incumbents in a wave of robocalls and ads, the only incumbent they attacked with a TV ad was Space. That move was an acknowledgment that this is the type of district they need to contest if they want to meaningfully cutting the Democrats’ majority next year.
No Republican has announced a run, but state Sen. Jimmy Stewart, state Sen. John Carey and state Rep. Jay Hottinger could all make this a competitive race.
| OR-04 | Rep. Peter DeFazio | Kerry 49%-49% |
Obama 54%-43% |
Peter DeFazio would have faced some trouble represents a swing district that voted for Bush by 5% in 2000. Yet, he has never dipped below 60% at the polls in his 11 re-election races! Republicans look determined to finally contest the district in 2010, and they have landed a strong recruit: Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken, who has served as the city’s mayor since 2000 Republicans also point to his business experience and his ties to the timber industry, which is significant in the area.
But Leiken’s strength should not be overstated. While Springfield is a non-negligeable part of the district, its real population center is liberal Eugene. Furthermore, DeFazio is a very strong incumbent, and he occupies a powerful position in the House as the chairman of the Transportation Subcommittee on Highways and Transit. He can point to the additional funding his seniority has allowed him to win for the district - not to mention that OR-04 has been getting increasingly Democratic. DeFazio might have to spend a bit more time worrying about his re-election than usual, but he remains overwhelmingly favored to win a 13th term… if he runs for re-election!
Indeed, DeFazio is considering running in Oregon’s open gubernatorial race, and an open seat race would be competitive. Democrats would start with an advantage, but Leiken could ensure a highly competitive race. In fact, the NRCC is surely hoping that Leiken’s candidacy will pressure DeFazio into exiting the House race.
| OR-05 | Rep. Kurt Schrader | Bush 50%-49% | Obama 54%-43% |
In 2008, this district was one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities until a series of abortion and ethics-related scandals sunk the candidacy of Republican nominee Mike Erickson. As a result, state Senator Kurt Schrader ended up easily winning what was supposed to be a tough battle. Despite Obama’s large winning margin, it is hard to forget that George W. Bush won the district twice; for now, OR-05 should still be considered a swing district and Schrader could face a competitive race in 2010.
Yet, that would require the GOP to get its act together. Erickson has suggested he might run seek a rematch, which would be wonderful news for Erickson. Thankfully for Republicans, they have a deep bench in the district: state Sen. Brian Boquist, state Reps. Vicky Berger, Vic Gilliam, Bill Kennemer, Kevin Cameron, Scott Bruun and Kim Thatcher could all make this a competitive race, as could Kevin Mannix, who lost the Republican primary to Erickson in 2008.
| PA-07 | Rep. Joe Sestak | Kerry 53%-47% | Obama 56%-43% |
First elected in 2006, Sestak scored a triumphant re-election victory last year and the district is Democratic enough that he should not worry about a serious challenge. Yet, the former Navy vice admiral is considering running against Arlen Specter in the Senate race. While Democrats would be favored to keep the seat, the district is not blue enough for an seat race not to be potentially competitive.
| PA-08 | Rep. Patrick Murphy | Kerry 51%-48% | Obama 54%-45% |
The GOP’s best bet to win PA-08 is an open race, but Patrick Murphy is looking increasingly uninterested in running for Senate and vacating his House seat. The district might not be Democratic enough for Murphy to be safe (after all, the GOP held the seat from 1992 to 2006) but the GOP has too many better opportunities to spend much time thinking about unseating Murphy. A top-tier challenger might make the race worth monitoring, but no credible names are circulating for now.
| PA-12 | Rep. Jack Murtha | Kerry 51%-49% | McCain 51%-49% |
PA-12 is the only district in the country to have voted for John Kerry in 2004 and for John McCain in 2008. While that would be enough to make most Democrats vulnerable, Murtha is not just any representative: He has represented the district since 1974 and he is now the Chairman of the an Appropriations subcommittee - a powerful position that allows him to steer federal money to Western Pennsylvania. In congressional campaigns, that is the strongest possible argument.
And yet, Murtha has gotten himself on the list of potentially endangered incumbents. In 2008, his comments about Western Pennsylvania’s racist and redneck residents made conservatives mount a last-minute aggressive campaign against him and got the NRCC to pour in money. But it was silly to expect a late October push to be enough to unseat as powerful an incumbent as Murtha, who won by 16%. He now faces another problem, as he is getting embroiled in a lobbying scandal: a lobbyist is being investigated by the FBI for allegedly getting Murtha to earmark projects in exchange for campaign contributions.
Murtha’s bizarre defense: “If I’m corrupt, it’s because I take care of my district,” Murtha told the newspaper.” It really looks like the incumbent is determined to make this hard upon himself, but it will take a lot more for the GOP to take him down. For one, they need a top-tier candidate: Bill Russell, who has already said he will seek a rematch, is unlikely to be strong enough.
| TX-23 | Rep. Ciro Rodriguez | Bush 57%-43% | Obama 51%-48% |
An unexpected winner in the 2006 cycle, Ciro Rodriguez did not face much of a challenge in his first re-election race. While Rodriguez initially represented a staunchly red seat, he now has the comfort of representing a blue district. Will that be enough to get Republicans to leave him alone? Bush’s 57% suggest that Republicans will have a good shot if they field a strong contender, but TX-23 is a Latino-majority district that will not be easy for the GOP to reclaim. The next round of redistricting could make the district even more heavily Hispanic and thus more Democratic.
| UT-02 | Rep. Jim Matheson | Bush 61%-36% | McCain 57%-39% |
No Democrat representing as conservative a district is ever fully safe and a top-tier Republican challenger might make the race competitive; yet, , but Jim Matheson has managed to coast to victory ever since he survived a brutal re-election race in 200 and the NRCC should not expect an easy pick-up. Do they want to invest in a challenge against this entrenched incumbent when they have so many freshmen and sophomore lawmakers to go after? Also, Utah’s electoral map will be dramatically changed in a few years, so it might make sense for ambitious Republicans to wait and see what the district looks like in 2012.
| VA-11 | Rep. Gerald Connolly | Bush 50%-49% | Obama 57%-42% |
Running in blue-trending territory in a national environment that favored his party, Gerald Connolly was expected to win by a larger margin than the 8% victory he secured over self-funding businessman Keith Fimian. Since November, the GOP has shown unexpected signs of life in Northern Virginia: in 3 specials elections held in Fairfax County Board of Commissioner races, Democrats barely won the first two and an under-funded Republican unexpectedly prevailed in the third. These might not look like significant developments, but they put a dent in the Democrats’ confidence that they are set to take firm control of the region.
All of this said, Connolly is favored to win a second term in 2010. Obama’s 15% victory makes this a strongly blue districts, and the GOP has too many other freshmen lawmakers to target to spend much time worrying about VA-11. 2008 nominee Fimian is considering a rematch, and he could self-fund his way to another close finish; other potential candidates are state Senator Tim Hugo and Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity.
| WI-08 | Rep. Steve Kagen | Bush 55%-44% | Obama 54%-45% |
In 2006, Steve Kagen became one of the most endangered House Democrats as he was elected to represent a district that had voted for George W. Bush by 11%; yet, WI-08 took a larger than average swing to the left last fall and Kagen now looks far safer than anyone could have predicted two years ago. At least, the GOP can be reassured that John Gard, who the former Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly who failed to win an open seat in red territory before losing a rematch by 8% in 2008, will not seek the seat for the third consecutive cycle. This will allow the NRCC to concentrate on finding a fresh challenger to Kagen.
Indeed, even if Obama won a decisive victory in WI-08, the district remains divided enough that any number of GOP officials could make this a competitive race. One is already in the race: Mark Savard, a member of the Door County Board of Supervisors and former Chairman of the county’s Republican Party. Savard could certainly prove a credible challenger, but the GOP might want to look a bit harder.
Another incredibly incisive run-down! Thanks so much for all the work you put into this.
seconding what bcarter3 said, this is really great to have all these comprehensive points in one place. having the member’s margin of victory in 08 be part of the graphic might be helpful, though.
great work!