The only two things I disagree with you on are Norm Coleman’s electability in MN, I think he’d do just fine and I think the “damage” he suffered is largely illusory and among people who hate him anyway, and the Ohio race, which I think is a tossup.

First of all, saying that Maine is trending “increasingly blue” is only true for Presidential level politics. The same election that Barack Obama won so handily in Maine, voters voted just as overwhelmingly for Susan Collins… a moderate Republican yes… but still a solid Republican.

Voters in Maine are classic people not party voters. In 2004 before the NATIONAL Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008 happened, the Maine House and Maine Senate were split 50-50. Yes, Baldacci is a two term governor, but he got re-elected with 38% of the vote, and only won because the Republicans nominated an idiot. And it had nothing to do with the “bench” in the state, there are plenty of Republican lawmakers (and Dems too) who are visible and respected enough to make a legit run. The blueness of the state of Maine is a matter of presidential level politics for the last few cycles, nothing more.

And please, Rick Bennett? There is literally NO buzz about him… ZERO. There was some like 6 months ago, but he’s not even thinking of running. Not only that, you completely got the facts wrong when you said he “served as the last GOP President of the Maine Senate in… the early 1990s.” Actually, Bennett was President of the Maine Senate in 2002, back when the Maine Senate was split 50-50.

Tom Allen was NEVER thinking of running, and calling it a “surprise” that he isn’t running pretty much shows that you aren’t paying attention. Nobody - Dems, Republicans, Indies… NOBODY thought he was running, so it isn’t a surprise. Mike Michaud? Dude. There is ZERO buzz about him as well - and for good reason. He’s really comfy in Washington and has no reason to expose himself statewide for a job he doesn’t even really want. You literally pulled “mulling a run” out of your ass, didn’t you?

You got Steve Rowe right, but calling him “strong” is hilarious… he was part of the Baldacci administration, which is extremely unpopular right now. Rowe himself is a boring candidate who is a career politician… he is going to have a very uphill climb. The Democrats have other candidates who are much more threatening statewide… Rosa Scarcelli is a Dem business woman and an outsider, for example… Libby Mitchell is the president of the Maine Senate… there are plenty of other examples of “strong candidates”… but each and every one of them will have problems getting anywhere near a majority of votes.

The GOP has probably its best crop of candidates since Peter Cianchette in 2002 this year. There are three outsiders who have made their name in the business world… Matt Jacobson for example is President of a company who’s job is to LITERALLY bring jobs to Maine. Bruce Poliquin has made businesses thrive, and Les Otten is a former owner of the Red Sox. Outsiders with business cred in a crappy economy like this one are going to be VERY strong general election candidates for Republicans. Then you have Susan Collins / Olympia Snowe type Republicans such as Peter Mills, who we KNOW can win big statewide.

And there is no credible Independent in the race right now.

Putting this in any other category but toss up is laughably naive, and your explanation behind the rating shows just how little you know or understand about the state of politics in Maine.

Makes me wonder about your ratings and explanations of other states.