As of November 3rd:
- Safe McCain: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (99 EVs)
- Likely McCain: Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska’s 1st district, South Carolina, South Dakota, West Vigrinia (29 EVs)
- Lean McCain: Arizona, Nebraska’s 2nd district (11 EVs)
- Toss-up: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota (85 EV)
- Lean Obama: Ohio (20 EVs)
- Likely Obama: Colorado, Iowa, Maine (at-large + 1st district + 2nd district), Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (96 EVs)
- Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (185 EVs)
That brings us to the following totals:
- Safe + Likely Obama: 286 electoral votes
- Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 311
- Toss-up: 85
- Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 142
- Safe + Likely McCain: 128
The most recent analysis, with explanations of the most recent updates, is available here.
What if it’s a tie? A full analysis here.
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History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:
- November 3rd: +169 Obama (311 for Obama [185 safe, 96 likely, 20 lean] and 142 or McCain [99 safe, 29 likely, 11 lean])
- October 27th: + 149 Obama (306 for Obama [160 safe, 122 likely, 24 lean] and 157 for McCain [116 safe, 20 likely, 21 lean])
- October 20th: + 153 Obama (313 for Obama [153 safe, 107 likely, 53 lean] and 160 for McCain [116 safe, 20 likely, 24 lean])
- October 12th: + 150 Obama (313 for Obama [153 safe, 81 likely, 79 lean] and 163 for McCain [122 safe, 17 likely, 24 lean])
- September 27th: + 55 Obama (239 for Obama [154 safe, 43 likely, 42 lean] and 174 for McCain [122 safe, 38 likely, 14])
- September 20th: +6 Obama (222 for Obama [154 safe, 19 likely, 49 lean] and 216 for McCain [119 safe, 41 likely, 56 lean])
- August 31st: + 16 Obama (243 for Obama [154 safe, 29 likely, 60 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
- August 20th: + 14 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 32 likely, 55 lean] and 224 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
- July 30th: + 38 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 42 likely, 45 lean] and 200 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 35 lean])
- July 16th: +28 Obama (255 for Obama [150 safe, 43 likely, 62 lean] and 227 for McCain [90 safe, 78 likely, 59 lean])
- July 2rd: +11 Obama (238 for Obama [143 safe, 50 likely, 45 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 78 likely, 56 lean])
- June 18th: +22 Obama (238 for Obama [86 safe, 97 likely, 55 lean] and 216 for McCain [87 safe, 87 likely, 42 lean])
- June 4th: +20 McCain (207 for Obama [76 base, 107 likely, 24 lean] and 227 for McCain [97 safe, 77 likely, 53 lean])
September 20, 2008 at 1:11 am
This is the best polling site I have found. All the results are clear, as are trends. Other sites have too much clutter, and I’ve found an astonishing number of poll sites that feature “push-poll” techniques, i.e. cherry picked data that favors the candidate they are “pushing”.
Please keep up the good work.
September 26, 2008 at 8:58 am
Ummm… Sorry, I was linked to you by 3bluedudes.com and I realised that you are currently on their website as McCain ahead. In fact it seems you have Obama ahead, albiet by a small margin. Just wondering if this was an error or an old update. Worth updating, the less I see McCain winning this election, the better it is for my stress levels :-) Keep up the good work