Archive for the 'WI-03' Category

Why predictions of ‘10 gloom are off: By recent standards, Dems have few open seat headaches

Published
by
Taniel
on September 25, 2009
in 2010-general and WI-03
. 6 Comments

For all the talk about House Democrats heading towards big losses in 2010, there is a major reason a red wave is unlikely: The party won’t have that much to worry about in terms of congressional retirements.

It might still be early in the cycle, but we can already say that their open seat headaches will look nothing like those that plagued the losing party of 1994, 2006 and 2008 - all cycles in which retirements were a huge factor. Needless to say, this will make it much harder for the GOP to score big gains. In a wave-like election, open seats provide easy pick-ups at little cost whereas incumbents are hard to beat even in the most favorable of environments.

Let’s review recent history:

  • 1994: Democrats lost 22 open seats - nearly 40% of their total loss.
  • 2006: At least 15 GOP-held open seats were considered competitive; the party lost 8 of them and spend a lot of money defending the rest (which included IL-06 and MN-06).
  • 2008: 18 GOP-held open seats were considered competitive; Democrats won 11 of them - nearly half of their net gain.

In 2010, it would be a big surprise if the DCCC has to defend more than 6-7 competitive open seats - and even that many would take a few unexpected retirements.

For now, 7 House Democrats have announced they won’t run for re-election. 3 represent heavily African-American districts in which the GOP has no chance: AL-02 (Artur Davis), FL-17 (Kendrick Meek) and IL-07 (Danny Davis). A fourth open seat is that of Neil Abercombie in Hawaii. Republicans are excited about Charles Djou’s candidacy, but the bottom line is that the district voted for Obama 70% to 28%. Not exactly an appealing opportunity, whatever Obama’s approval rating next fall.

That leaves us with three vulnerable open seats: LA-03 (Charlie Melancon), PA-07 (Joe Sestak), and NH-02 (Paul Hodes). Note that PA-07 and NH-02 voted for Al Gore and John Kerry and they gave Barack Obama a double-digit victory. Strong Republican recruitment should make both top-tier GOP opportunities, but they won’t be easy pick-ups.

And here’s where the news gets good for Democrats: There simply aren’t many more potentially tough seats that could open up. Just this week-end, Wisconsin Rep. Ron Kind announced he would not run for Governor - a relief for the DCCC.

At only 46, Kind is a 12-year incumbent, a Whip and a Ways and Means member; in short, he could rise to positions of power if only he stays in the House. Yet, he looked genuinely interested in a statewide race. Had he retired, the GOP would have had a good shot: While WI-03 gave Obama a 17% victory, it only went for Kerry and Gore by 3%. With Kirk now running for re-election, however, it heads off the map of competitive races. Kind has always cruised to re-election, albeit not always by dominating margins (he received 56% in 2004), and the district’s leftward turn last year should dissuade the GOP from paying much attention to the district.

So we are left with 3 vulnerable open seats - 4 if we grant that HI-01 could potentially be competitive. And I only see two House Democrats left whose retirement could create a headache for the DCCC:

  1. Rep. Bob Etheridge, who is considering running for Senate in North Carolina; NC-02 voted for Obama by 5%, for Bush by 8%.
  2. Rep. Peter DeFazio of OR-04, who is still deciding whether he wants to run for Governor in Oregon. Even if he does retire, once highly-touted GOP candidate Sid Leiken is not looking so hot anymore, to say the least.

Neither DeFazio nor Etheridge are likely to be vulnerable if they run for re-election, and at the moment I would not bet that either will retire. Even supposing that both do leaves the number of potentially competitive races at 5-6. (And let me repeat that this is already including seats in which the GOP would need to run a flawless campaign or rely on an excellent environment to be competitive; HI-01, OR-04 and PA-07 all lean blue.)

Other Democratic congressmen who have yet to rule out a retirement either are highly unlikely to quit or they don’t represent competitive districts. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08) or Jim Marshall (GA-08) running for Senate would be golden GOP opportunities, but neither has made any noise since the beginning of the year; polls showing McCain and Isakson in relatively good shape are unlikely to push them towards running. At 75, Leonard Boswell (IA-03) could retire from his swing district but he looks likely to stay put at least until redistricting. And the GOP has nothing to look forward to if Charles Rangel (NY-15) or John Dingell (MI-15) decide to retire. I believe that only leaves us with PA-11, where I once heard some buzz Paul Kanjorski might retire; but not only is that unlikely, it could also be good news for Democrats.

Let’s say a few such surprises occur, shooting the number of vulnerable Democratic open seats to 8-9. (As I said, this looks rather unlikely, especially with Kind announcing he’ll stay put.) Even that number bears no resemblance to the nightmare Democrats went through in 1994 or the retirement headaches the GOP endured in 2006 and 2008.

This did not happen for a lack of Democrats mulling retirement: At least 11 representatives who were actively considering seeking higher office or leaving politics decided to stick around to the House. Those include: Allen Boyd (FL-02), Ron Klein (FL-22), Dennis Moore (KY-03), Ben Chandler (KY-06), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-02), Zach Space (OH-18), Patrick Murphy (PA-08), Stephanie Herseth Slandin (SD-AL) and Lincoln Davis (TN-04). That all chose to seek re-election speaks to their enjoying Democrats’ new status as the majority party.

By contrast, the NRCC has just as many open seat troubles to worry about as Democrats do. Jim Gerlach (PA-06) and Mark Kirk (IL-10)’s retirements create huge Democratic opportunities in blue territory, and DE-AL could soon become the most vulnerable district in the country if Mike Castle doesn’t run for re-election, as is expected (he has hinted he will retire if he does not run for Senate). Democrats have recruited competitive candidates in FL-12 and TN-03, both red-leaning but already-open districts. Bill Young (FL-10), Fred Upton (MI-06) and I believe Frank Wolf (VA-10) are still considering retirements, and any of them would host competitive open races.

In short: Before worrying about a coming red wave, Democrats should remember that they are leaving the GOP few obvious openings - a stark contrast to recent wave elections in which the losing party greatly contributed to its Election Day losses by having many of its incumbents retire.

Doyle and Martinez decisions might lead to game of House musical chairs

Published
by
Taniel
on August 19, 2009
in FL-10, FL-21, WI-01 and WI-03
. 2 Comments

Will there be a Florida special election?

In late 2008, a number of Governors stumbled over Senate appointments, which makes Mel Martinez’s resignation potentially risky for Charlie Crist. If he chooses a conservative firebrand to appease his base, it could give an opening to Democrats; if he chooses a moderate - and at least one of the names he is considering, former Governor Martinez, has a history of donating to Democrats - it could help Marco Rubio portray him as unsufficiently Republican.

One other thing Crist could do is take David Paterson’s route: create a major headache for his party in the House. While Democrats ended up (barely) holding on to Kirsten Gillibrand’s seat, will the NRCC be able to do so if Crist taps a Republican congressman to finish Martinez’s term?

Last week, we learned that Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart was one of a handful of Republicans who had been asked to submit documents to Crist’s office. Diaz-Balart represents FL-21 since 1992; while his district leans Republican, it has been trending leftward: This is a rare Florida district in which John Kerry improved on Al Gore’s decision, and the 12% swing between 2004 and 2008 is larger than the statewide change. Democrats would be the clear underdogs in a special election, especially as they don’t have a strong bench, but they would nonetheless have a shot at picking-up the seat.

Unfortunately for the DCCC, Diaz-Balart released a statement withdrawing his name from consideration - so it doesn’t look like the Miami region will host a special election this fall.

We are left to wonder why Diaz-Balart’s name even popped up: Why would a longtime congressman want to resign from his job to take a gig that is sure to end in 17-month? To explain Crist’s motivation, Roll Call pointed out that Rubio already represents part of FL-21 - and he could thus leave Crist alone in the Senate race to run for Diaz-Balart’s seat instead. And perhaps we can explain Diaz-Balart initial interest by referring to the 2012 Senate race: Would Diaz-Balart not be better positioned to challenge Bill Nelson if he could introduce himself as a former Senator?

But those who were hoping for a Florida special election should still have hope: Crist is now considering appointing Rep. Bill Young, who represents competitive territory (Obama won FL-10 by 4%, Bush won it by 2% in 2004). It’s easier to figure out what is going on here: Now 78, Young is already considering retiring in 2010. (As the former Chairman of the Appropriations Committee, how much could he be enjoying powerless life in the minority?)

If Young is indeed leaning towards calling it quits, a Senate appointment would allow him to close out a very long congressional career in a more prestigious position without costing him a job he wants to hold on to nor really causing that much of an additional heachache to the GOP. If anything, Republicans might be calculating that a 2009 special election might give them a better chance of holding on to the seat than an open seat in 2010: As turnout would be lower in the former case, the enthusiasm gap could be more consequential.

Wisconsin: Add Ron Kind to list of potential retirees

Barbara Lawton wasted no time before jumping in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race. Just hours after Jim Dolye confirmed that he would retire, his Lieutenant Governor had announced she would seek to replace him. Yet, it looks like Lawton might face intraparty competition after all: Rep. Ron Kind is now saying he is “considering” the race and will come to a decision “in the weeks to come.”

While Kind has been in the House sine 1997, he is still young: 12-year incumbents tend to be far older than 46. That means that Kind should become senior enough to obtain to powerful House positions without having to wait to reach an insanely old age. (He is now Chief Deputy Whip and a member of the Ways and Means Committee.) Combined with the fact that House Democrats look to have built themselves a durable majority, I would imagine that Kind wouldn’t want to jeopardize his post.

If he does pull the trigger, he would obviously have to leave his House seat. Made up of Southwestern Wisconsin, the 3rd District gave Barack Obama a huge 17% victory but it was far more competitive in past cycles: John Kerry and Al Gore both won the district by only 3%. As such, an open seat should lead to a competitive race; Democrats would start with an edge, but Republicans could hope for an upset if the environment was favorable.

On the other hand, Rep. Paul Ryan ruled out running for Governor; he had already ruled out a Senate run, so we can remove him from the list of potential retirees. His WI-01 is swing territory (it gave Obama a 3% victory last fall) so an open seat could have been highly competitive. Ryan could eye Herb Kohl’s Senate seat, which is up in 2012, but by then redistricting will have changed his district’s demographic.

NRCC goes after Kratovil and red-district Democrats, loses a challenger in North Carolina

Published
by
Taniel
on May 28, 2009
in AR-02, FL-24, NC-08, NM-02, SD-AL, VA-02, VA-05 and WI-03
. 1 Comment

Earlier this year, the NRCC launched a massive attack against 33 Democratic representatives; but only one incumbent found himself targeted by a TV ad: Zach Space (OH-18). A few months have passed and the Republican committee is using the same strategy.

In a new wave of attacks that targets 17 Democrats, TV ads will be aired in only one district: MD-01, held by Frank Kratovil. Additionally, radio ads will air against six Democrats: Vic Snyder (AR-02), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Harry Teague (NM-02), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Tom Perriello (VA-05).

What do all these Democrats have in common? They all represent conservative-leaning territory: John McCain won all but VA-02, a district in which Obama received 2% but where George W. Bush prevailed by 16% in 2004. In 2010, Republicans are hoping that these district’s conservative nature will reassert itself since the environment is unlikely to be as favorable to Democrats as it was over the past two cycles and they are thus looking to soften these incumbent’s image by blasting them as partisan Democrats and as liberals.

And the GOP has long decided how it will do that: Use Nancy Pelosi as a boogeywoman. The NRCC’s previous wave of ad attacked Blue Dog Democrats on spending matters. “Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit,” said the ad that aired in OH-18. “And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Now, the NRCC is focusing on Pelosi’s recent back-and-forth with the CIA. “Lying to Congress would be a crime, so why won’t Pelosi investigate the “crime”?,” asks the ad that will air in Maryland’s 1st District. “Frank Kratovil sided with Pelosi to block an investigation. Frank Kratovil, voting with Nancy Pelosi 89% of the time.”

Contrary to what the GOP seems to think, it has not gained the upper-hand on this issue: Polls suggest that the CIA’s reputation is damaged enough that the public did not automatically dismiss Pelosi’s claims. Yet, what might not be a winning argument for the NRCC in most parts of the country could very well be a successful one in red districts like MD-01: Pelosi is very unpopular among Republicans and conservative-leaning voters (a constituency among which these 7 Democrats need to do well) were likely appalled by the Speaker’s contention that the CIA lied.

Democrats who have represented very hostile districts for decades (think Rep. Taylor of Mississippi) have had the time to convince their Republican constituents that they are not automatic votes in favor of the leadership of their party. As such, they have become very difficult to dislodge. But Kratovil, Kosmas, Teague, Nye and Perriello are all freshman and sit in red-leaning districts: the NRCC thus believes it can turn conservative-leaning voters against them, which explains why they are all being targeted.

Herseth Sandlin has easily won her 3 re-election races so her situation is different, but there is some buzz about her facing her first serious challenger - not to mention that she is mulling a gubernatorial run so the NRCC might be looking to pressure into leaving the House. As for Vic Snyder, he is one of those entrenched Democrats I mentioned above but the NRCC has by now made it clear it will go after Snyder and AR-01’s Marion Berry.

To truly make thee Arkansas Democrats vulnerable, the GOP will have to land top challengers, but given how entrenched both Snyder and Berry are the NRCC can hope to convince anyone to run unless they demonstrate their willingness to spend hard money on these districts. Indeed, early advertising is one thing, recruiting credible challengers is quite another. While the GOP has met some success in blue-leaning districts like OR-04 and CA-47, it still has work to do against the more obviously vulnerable Democrats.

In NC-08, a swing district in which Larry Kissell won a tough battle in 2008, Republicans were talking up the potential candidacy of Mike Minter. A former football, Minter looked interested in the race but, in a clear blow to the NRCC, he recently announced that he would not run. (This might open the door to a comeback by former Rep. Hayes, though he would probably not be the GOP’s best option.)

As much as I would like to think that athletes cannot just waltz their way into the political arena and win, there is enough evidence to suggest that Minter would have been a formidable candidate - starting with Democrat Heath Shuler, another football star who successfuly ran against an incumbent in 2006. Minter spent his entire career playing for the Carolina Panthers, which gives him huge name recognition and popularity in this district. (The Panthers are based in Charlotte, part of which is contained in NC-08.)

The GOP might have more success in WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind, who has easily held since his first victory in 1996, has not mentioned as a potentially vulnerable incumbent but he could soon draw a serious opponent: state Senator Dan Kapanke is signaling his interest in challenging Kind. WI-03 only narrowly went for Gore and Kerry (3% each time) but Obama received 58% of the vote. As such, it is not the most obvious place for an unexpected Republican offensive, but trying to expand the map to usually uncontested districts certainly did not hurt Democrats in 2006.