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Category Archive for ‘WV-Pres’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'WV-Pres' Category


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Final poll watch: No late movement

Still to come today: An election night cheat sheet, anything else that events warrant and a liveblog, of course. (And the prediction thread is still alive!)

A final round of polling released over the past 12 hours includes interviews conducted on Monday, allowing us to check whether McCain benefited from any last minute movement.

The verdict: McCain does not  gain as a result of Monday polling. In fact, Obama gains in Zogby and IBD/TIPP’s national poll and holds firm in a Marist poll entirely conducted on Monday. At the state level, SUSA’s Pennsylvania poll shows Obama improving his position over the past few days and seizing a 9% lead, while Zogby’s 8 polls from battleground states have trendlines going in both directions - but no significant movement.

This means that no pollster has detected any sort of McCain improvement over the past few days. Firms that have been trying to allocate undecided have suggested that they are not likely to break heavily towards the Republican nominee. (Not to mention that in many state the impact of a late-breaking surge would be limited: at least 64% of all active registered voters cast their ballot before Election Day in Colorado.)

If McCain somehow pulls a comeback, almost no pollster will be able to bask in the glory, as even outlets that have shown a tighter race fell in line (IBD/TIPP, Zogby). The only exception is the “Battleground poll” (whose result I never included in my polling watch because they arbitrarily imposed wide swings in their weighing), whose GOP half (Tarrance) is projecting the tightest margin among all pollsters (50% to 48%). Mason-Dixon could also be somewhat vindicated: though their last batch of state polls pointed to an Obama victory, McCain was not in as dismal a situation as we’ve seen elsewhere.

In other words: for McCain to prevail, all polls (even Mason-Dixon) would have to be dead wrong. That’s happened before, but the New Hampshire primary was a highly volatile 4-day campaign - and that means that there were a lot of reasons to explain the polling fiasco. We simply do not know what would possibly explain a similar debacle today (though I tried to outline some possible scenarios here). With all of this in mind, here are the last polls of the 2008 cycle:

  • Obama leads 48% to 42% in the final IBD/TIPP tracking poll; IBD/TIPP allocates undecideds to reach a 52% to 44% Obama margin.
  • The Battleground tracking comes out with two different projections: Its Republican half (Tarrance) has Obama leading 50% to 48% while its Democratic half (Lake) has him ahead 52% to 47%. Note that this is not a trend towards McCain at all; Battleground has always shown a tighter race than other pollsters.
  • Obama leads 51% to 46% in Research 2000’s final tracking poll. That means that R2000 has the tightest final margin of all trackings - a fascinating result given that it is funded by Kos, RCP inexplicably refuses to include it in its averages and Obama had some of his largest leads through September and October in R2000.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads 52% to 43% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday through Monday; that’s an increase from a 7% lead Obama enjoyed in a poll released on Sunday. Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 14% yesterday).
  • Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in an ARG poll conducted Friday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 6% yesterday).
  • Nevada: Obama leads 53% to 42% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 8% yesterday).
  • Ohio: Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 6% yesterday).
  • Florida: Obama leads 58% to 40% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday through Monday; he leads by 18% among those who have already voted (58% of the sample). McCain leads 49% to 48% in a Datamar poll conducted Saturday and Sunday; the candidates were tied at 47% a few days ago and Obama led by 5% earlier. Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 2% yesterday).
  • North Carolina: Obama leads 49% to 48% in an ARG poll conducted Friday through Monday; African-Americans make up a relatively large 24% of respondents. McCain leads 50% to 49% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; McCain led by 1% yesterday).
  • Missouri is tied at 49% a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 1% yesterday).
  • Indiana: McCain leads 50% to 45% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; McCain led by 5% yesterday).
  • Washington: Obama leads 56% to 40% in a SUSA poll.
  • West Virginia: McCain leads 53% to 42% in an ARG poll taken Friday through Monday.

Meanwhile, in our final down the ballot numbers:

  • Christine Gregoire pulls ahead 52% to 46% in SUSA poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race. This breaks a series of 8 SUSA polls that had the race within the MoE.

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13th presidential ratings: One last attempt at finding McCain’s path to victory

We have been talking so much about Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina that it would also seem that Barack Obama’s electoral fortunes depend on these highly competitive states. If that were true, we would be in for quite an unpredictable Election Day indeed.

Unfortunately for McCain, a sweep of those states - even if we add Florida, Ohio, Georgia to his column - would get him no closer to the fundamental challenge he faces if he wants to reach 270 electoral votes: closing the gap in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia.

As it is looking increasingly unlikely that McCain can save Colorado given the huge share of the electorate that has already voted, all Obama needs is to hold on to Pennsylvania. The battle of Pennsylvania is sometimes portrayed as a sign McCain is still on the offensive, but this is the ultimate defensive move dictated by the need to survive.

Even if McCain can tap into the discontent of culturally conservative Democratic voters and somehow prove all Pennsylvania polls wrong, he would still face an uphill climb as he would also have to win one of Colorado, Nevada and Virginia - all states that are currently rated likely Obama. This is certainly not an easy proposal, especially in the two Southwestern states in which Obama has already locked in big majorities in early voting. And a McCain comeback in Pennsylvania would not necessarily mean that he has closed the gap in Virginia since the electoral coalitions Obama needs to assemble to win both states are different enough.

All of this suggests that Pennsylvania and Virginia are the states to watch tomorrow night, as it is difficult to imagine - though still technically possible - that Obama loses the election if he wins either of those states.

None of this is to underestimate the importance of Florida and Ohio: Both states lean ever so slightly towards the Democratic nominee, and a win in either state would surely guarantee him an electoral college majority. (The same is true in any of the other competitive red states, and the Obama organization is so dominant in some of them that for him to win there but not in other states would not surprise me.) But saying that the election’s fate is in the hands of Florida, Ohio or in states other than Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would be overstating McCain’s chances of survival.

Since the first presidential ratings I posted on June 4th, there has been an unmistakable shift towards Obama. Of the nine states that were then rated toss-ups (CO, MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA and WI), eight are now in the likely Obama column and one in the lean Obama column; all states that were rated lean McCain are now toss-ups, and all states that were rated lean Obama are now likely Obama. And the GOP base has significantly eroded: Of the eight states that were listed as likely McCain, four are now toss-ups - as would Alaska have been had McCain not picked Sarah Palin as his running-mate.

Without further delay, here are the thirteenth presidential ratings (states whose ratings have been changed towards Obama are colored blue, those whose ratings have been changed towards McCain are colored red):

  • Safe McCain: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (99 EVs)
  • Likely McCain: Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska’s 1st district, South Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia (29 EVs)
  • Lean McCain: Arizona, Nebraska’s 2nd district (11 EVs)
  • Toss-up: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota (85 EV)
  • Lean Obama: Ohio (20 EVs)
  • Likely Obama: Colorado, Iowa, Maine (at-large + 1st district + 2nd district), Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (96 EVs)
  • Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (185 EVs)

This gives us the following map and totals:

  • Safe + Likely Obama: 286 electoral votes
  • Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 311
  • Toss-up: 85
  • Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 142
  • Safe + Likely McCain: 128

I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past week:

Arizona, likely McCain to lean McCain: This seemingly last-minute development was a long time coming: Arizona polls have shown a surprisingly tight race for months, and McCain’s first signs of vulnerability came when he failed to break 50% in the state’s primary on Super Tuesday. But no one really believed that McCain’s home state could possibly be that competitive and, despite some occasional noise about an optimistic state Democratic Party, the Obama campaign did not make a move. Until this week, that is, when a big wave of polls showing McCain’s lead within the margin of error forced Obama into action; his campaign bought air time in Arizona and mobilized state volunteers.

It’s hard to think of a scenario in which Arizona is the decisive state, but at the very least, Arizona’s yearning to be a battleground state is a very good sign for Democrats in future presidential elections, and it will pay dividends at the House level, where Democrats are poised to pick up one to two seats after the two they won over in 2006.

Georgia, lean McCain to toss-up: It’s hard to believe that we are thinking of Georgia as a battleground state - let alone as a toss-up - but until Republicans prove that they are enthusiastic enough to actually vote, they are facing a catastrophe in the state: More than half of the electorate cast an early ballot, and African-Americans make up 35% of those voters - up from the 25% they represented in 2004. If strong Republican and white turnout on Tuesday does not push that number south to 30-31%, Barack Obama will be ideally placed for a (somewhat unexpected) pick-up. His campaign had invested in the state throughout the summer but went dark in mid-September, in the aftermath of the GOP convention; they are now back, airing at least one of ad tying McCain to President Bush.

Louisiana, safe McCain to likely McCain: Merely mentioning this state in the context of presidential politics would have been unthinkable just a month ago, but in the current climate an upset cannot be ruled out in any states that have a history of voting Democratic. Of course, Louisiana’s situation is complicated by the post-Katrina migrations, and no one truly knows whether the African-American population is large enough for a Democrat to pull off victory in a competitive race here. Mary Landrieu’s fate is, of course, far more dependent on this question than Obama’s.

Nevada, toss-up to likely Obama: Different forces have conspired to make Nevada look like a likely Obama pick-up. For one, he dominates among Hispanics by margins that Al Gore and John Kerry would be jealous of, as well as among the West’s independent voters, who have always been one of his strongest constituencies. Polls released over the past 10 days by CNN/Time, Suffolk, Research 2000 show Obama has jumped to a commanding lead that rivals his advantage in Colorado. As if this was not enough, early voting is looking very promising for Obama. In Clark County and Washoe County, which together account for 87% of registered voters, the gap between Democratic and Republican early voters is far larger than that of the electorate at large; if conservatives do not vote at a far higher pace, the GOP could not only lose the state at the presidential level but also one or both of its House seats.

New Hampshire, lean Obama to likely Obama: I am weary of underestimating McCain in this state, but all polls have shown a very clear trend towards the Democrat over the past few weeks, who now leads by double-digits in most polls. The UNH/WMUR, surely the most trusted poll in the state, just released its final survey showing Obama leading by 11% and holding a big lead among independents. Who knew New Hampshire independents would prove McCain’s undoing?

New Jersey, likely Obama to safe Obama: Once upon a time, Republicans believed that the September 11th effect would swing the Garden State their way, and Bush made a lot of progress in this state between 2000 and 2004. How times have changed, as Obama has now seized a dominant lead in nearly all of the state’s polling. New Jersey typically flirts with Republicans for a while before giving itself to a Democrat reluctantly, but even that pattern hasn’t really held true this year, as McCain only came close to making the state competitive in the immediate aftermath of the Republican convention.

South Carolina, safe McCain to likely McCain: Just as in Louisiana, an Obama victory in South Carolina would mean that the Democratic nominee is on his way to an electoral college landslide of well above 400 EVs. But if Obama clinches a 10% win in the popular vote, it’s not inconceivable that states like South Carolina would fall in his column. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed McCain leading by only 6% in a state Bush carried by 17%. The boost in African-American turnout that we have been seeing in other states’ early voting could help Obama close the gap by a few more points.

Washington, likely Obama to safe Obama: Just as he believed he could put the Northeast in play, John McCain once had ambitions in the Pacific Northwest. But Barack Obama’s uncommon strength among the region’s independents (evidenced by the fact that this was the one region in which Obama ran consistently ahead of Hillary Clinton in general election polls) undercut McCain’s potential; also helping Obama is the fact that blue-collar voters in the West are less resistant, making it easier for him to unify the Democratic base. The result is an impressive lead that would have made Al Gore jealous. The main question in this state is whether Obama’s margin of victory is big enough to guarantee that Gregoire survives.

West Virginia, lean McCain to likely McCain: The site of Hillary Clinton’s greatest triumph was the most unlikely of states for Barack Obama to score an upset; the state is filled with blue-collar white Democrats who have not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for more than a decade. But a wave of polls in late September and early October showed a highly competitive contest, and Obama (presumably not sure of what to do with the millions he had in the bank) decided to invest in the state’s airwaves. However, Obama has been unable to make more progress over the past few weeks, and most polls that have been released over the past three weeks have McCain solidifying his position and holding a lead that hovers around the 10% mark. Obama was not even able to force McCain to spend time playing defense here. That said, that the state even got on the list of potential battleground states is a testament to how much the economic crisis transformed the presidential race.

History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:


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Ground wars: RNC spending in MT, Dems dominate early voting (Updated with Crist’s FL surprise)

If Barack Obama wins the national vote in a landslide, the election will most probably not be decided in a state-by-state warfare or on the basis of organizational muscle, but if McCain’s tightens the race in the coming days the election will of course be decided by the candidate’s ground game and investments in the most crucial swing states. So let’s take a look at the latest developments in early voting and presidential expenditures.

RNC in Montana and West Virginia: Barack Obama has had Montana’s airwaves all to himself for months; in West Virginia, he only started airing ads in the entire state a few weeks ago. The RNC’s independent expenditure division (i.e. this is not a decision made by the McCain campaign) is now going to air ads in both states. Both of their decision are somewhat surprising to me.

In Montana, the GOP could have afford to spend money months ago: this is a relatively cheap state to air ads in, and it will not cost the RNC that much to air these ads. But given how the electoral map is shaping now, it is very doubtful that Montana’s 3 electoral votes would make a difference. Under no obvious scenario would Obama be within 3 EVs of an electoral college majority. If he keeps blue states, IA and NM, he needs 5 more electoral votes; If Obama wins Colorado and Virginia but somehow loses Pennsylvania, he needs 4 more electoral votes. There is no one state with which Montana could be combined that wouldn’t also get Obama to 269 all by itself.

West Virginia, meanwhile, looks far less secure than it did a few weeks ago - but it is far less vulnerable than red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. With a few days of campaigning to go, it looks unlikely that West Virginia will go Democratic unless Obama wins a gigantic landslide that leaves him with more than 350 electoral votes. That is not the case in either of the three states I mentioned above, all of which look as competitive as they could possibly be. Given McCain’s relatively weak organization in IN or NC, for instance, it is conceivable that he loses either before losing Ohio or Florida.

Early voting: What is most remarkable about the latest early voting data is that turnout among Democratic voters continues to significantly outpace Republican turnout, and that the disparities we started witnessed two weeks ago is holding day after day. Yes, yesterday Nevada and North Carolina Republicans voted in greater numbers than they had over the past week, but they remained far under their share of the electorate - and the already-high share of Georgia’s African-American vote increased even more. Here is a quick overview of the most interesting developments:

  • In Georgia, more than 1,2 million voters have already voted, accounting for 22% of registered voters and 36% of the 2004 electorate. Amazingly, African-Americans increased their share of the electorate over the past day and now make up 35,3% of early voters.
  • In a heavily African-American suburb of Georgia, the waiting line yesterday was 12 hours - and people actually waited. I repeat: 12 hours. Would many of you wait for 12 hours before voting? It seems like the fear of disenfranchisement among African-Americans is pushing for massive early turnout.
  • In North Carolina, more than 200,000 voters cast a ballot yesterday alone, bringing the total above 1,4 million. That accounts for 22% of registered voters and 40% of the 2004 electorate. African-Americans make up 28,1% of early voters (they made up 19% of the 2004 electorate), and the partisan breakdown is: 54,1% Democratic, 28,1% Republican. That is actually a significant improvement for Republicans over the breakdown through yesterday.
  • Further confirmation of North Carolina’s statewide trends comes from county-specific data: Early voting turnout in heavily Democratic and heavily African-American Durham County, for instance, is remarkably high.
  • Louisiana might not be suspenseful at the presidential level, but the Senate race is competitive and early voting data offers us another look at black turnout: 34,3% of early voters are African-American for now (that is a smaller uptick than in other states, as African-Americans make up nearly 32% of the population according to the 2006 census estimates). Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.
  • In Florida, more than 2 million voters have already cast a ballot, accounting for 18% of registered voters and 27% of the 2004 electorate. The partisan breakdown is narrower than in other states (45-40 for Democrats) because of Republican success in implementing their absentee voter program, but far more Democrats are voting early in person, so the gap could widen.
  • In Colorado, a 25% of registered voters have already cast their ballot, accounting for 37,9% of the 2004 electorate. The partisan breakdown is outdated, however.
  • In Oregon, 18% of registered voters had returned their ballot by mail as of Monday (that means that all ballots mailed over the week-end are not yet included in the totals).
  • In Nevada, we can take a detailed look at the state’s 2 biggest counties (Clark and Washoe), which account for 87% of the state’s registered voters. In both states, the first week of early voting had Democrats turning out in incredible numbers - but Republicans have been voting in greater numbers over the past 3 days. That said, Democrats retain a commanding advantage.
  • In Clark County (which Kerry won by 5% in 2004) 34% of all registered voters have already cast a ballot. 54% of early voters are Democrats while 29% are Republicans; put it another way, 38% of registered Democrats have already voted, while 33% of registered Republicans have voted.
  • In swing Washoe County, which Bush won by 4%, 26% of all registered voters have already cast a ballot. 51% of early voters are Democratic and 33% are Republican - a far bigger advantage than the registration breakdown.

Now, this is not to say that the final voter breakdown will be anything like it is now, and polls indicate that far more Republican-leaning voters will vote on November 4th (PPP provides some detail in its new North Carolina survey: 49% of African-American likely voters have already cast a ballot versus 29% of white likely voters).

This does mean, however, that the Democratic base is enthusiastic, is heavily turning out this week - and will probably heavily turn out next week. In particular, it now looks guaranteed that there will be a significant boost in African-American turnout, boosting Democratic prospects. Obama’s turnout machine is functioning, and the burden is now on Republicans to demonstrate that they can match it. Given that this turnout gap is something we witnessed throughout the primary season, it will not necessarily be easy for Republicans to do. Can they really bring a 2:1 gap in Nevada and North Carolina all the way down to where it should be?

Also: while early voters are more likely to be partisans who would never change their mind rather than wavering voters who are locking in their votes while still being persuadable, early voting turnout is huge enough in some states (especially Colorado and North Carolina) that a number of voters who might have still moved back towards McCain might have already cast their ballot for Obama.

Update: Florida’s Republican Governor Charlie Crist just signed an executive order extending early voting hours in the Sunshine state, meaning that polls will now be open twelve hours a day rather than eight hours. Given how much effort Obama has put into boosting early voting in Florida, this is a major boost to his campaign and it should help Democrats get as many sporadic voters to the polls as they can while reducing lines and smoothing the process. Republicans are clearly not happy about this, though it will be difficult for them to complain too much given that Crist is a McCain surrogate - albeit an atypical one.


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Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, gains edge in OH, Merkley in strong position, Lampson drowns

In my latest presidential ratings this morning, I identified the three states to watch in the election’s final stretch: Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Eight days from the election, Obama holds strong in those crucial states: A grand total of five new Virginia polls were released today, finding a consistent Obama advantage. Only Rasmussen found Obama holding a lead smaller than 7%, the four others having Obama’s lead go as high as 11%. Only one poll each from Colorado and Pennsylvania were released: Obama was leading comfortably in Pennsylvania, though his margin in Colorado is smaller than Democrats are hoping to see (4%).

That said, there is some movement in McCain’s favor in the tracking polls, and I feel compelled to point that out because of what I said in yesterday’s poll watch, when remarking on McCain’s inability to break out of the low 40s: “The day McCain manages to inch above 45%, we can think about whether the race is tightening.” Today, McCain gets to 46% in one national poll and is at 45% in three more. But Obama remains in a dominant position, as he is at 50% or above in six of the seven tracking polls; only IBD/TIPP has him at a weaker position, and that tracking’s internals are rather strange (Obama enjoys stronger party loyalty and leads among independents but only leads by 3%).

In other states, Obama’s strong position is confirmed: New polls in Ohio and Florida find Obama holding an advantage, especially in the former state. In fact, Rasmussen’s polls from these two states should put to rest talk of a tightening since Obama gains 5% and 6% in the two surveys over those released last Monday.

McCain’s two best trendlines today come from PPP’s North Carolina survey (that had Obama up 7% last week, up 1% today) and SUSA and Rasmussen’s Missouri polls (Obama led by 8% and 5%, he now ties and is ahead by 1%), but the size of Obama’s lead in all three of these surveys was not confirmed by other polls, making this week’s surveys expected regressions to the mean. In fact, it is great for Obama is that the true toss-ups are not the states he needs to win but rather places like North Carolina or Missouri: six new polls in those two states find tight races. Even Arizona polls are now showing a competitive race!

  • Obama remains ahead in the day’s tracking polls, though there is some movement: Obama loses a significant three points in Research 2000 (50% to 42%, with a 5% lead in the Sunday sample) and Rasmussen (51% to 46%); he also loses 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). Three trackings are stable: Washington Post/ABC (52% to 45%), Hotline (50% to 42%) and Zogby (50% to 45%). Obama inches up one point in Gallup (53% to 43%, the same margin as RVs and double his lead in the LVT model). That means that Obama’s leads are: 3%, 5%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 8% and 10%.
  • Virginia: Five new polls have Obama in the lead by margins ranging from 4% to 11%. The two most recent are Rasmussen and SUSA: Obama leads 52% to 43% in a SUSA poll, including a huge lead among early voters. His lead in Rasmussen is smaller: 51% to 47%, down from a 10% lead last week.
  • Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Zogby poll conducted over the week-end. Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Washington Post poll. (He led by 3% last month. This time, 50% of respondents say they have been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. The enthusiasm gap is huge, with 70% of Obama supporters describing themselves as enthusiastic.) Obama leads 51% to 40% in a VCU poll.
  • Ohio: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Zogby poll, in which he has a 16% edge among independents. Obama leads 49% to 45% in Rasmussen, a 6% swing from last week.
  • Colorado: Obama leads 50% to 46% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for McCain over last week.
  • Florida: The candidates are tied at 47% in a Zogby poll, though Obama has a strangely large 62-25 lead among independents. Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Suffolk poll of the state (up from 4%). Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll, a 5% swing in his favor since last week.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Temple University poll. The survey was conducted over an entire week (from the 20th to the 26th), however.
  • Nevada: Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Zogby poll, barely outside of the margin of error.
  • North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 46% in a Zogby poll. Obama leads 49% to 48% in a PPP poll, though he led by 7% last week. There are far less undecided voters this week. However, among early voters (about a third of the sample), Obama leads 63% to 36% (”looking at it another way, 49% of blacks in our survey said they had already voted. Only 29% of white voters said the same”). McCain leads 49% to 48% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for Obama since late last week.
  • Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a Marist poll, the same margin he enjoyed last month.
  • New Hampshire: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Marist poll, a one point decline since September.
  • Indiana: McCain leads 50% to 44% in a Zogby poll.
  • West Virginia: McCain leads 50% to 40% in a Zogby poll, thanks in part to 28% of Democratic voters.
  • Oregon: Obama leads 57% to 38% in a SUSA poll. Half of the electorate has already voted (remember that all of Oregon votes by mail), and Obama leads by 28% among those voters.
  • Arizona: The third poll in two days finds McCain in trouble in his home state. He leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Jeff Merkley leads 49% to 42% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. Half of the electorate has already voted, and Merkley leads by 10% among those voters.
  • Kay Hagan leads 48% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 8% last week.
  • Jay Nixon leads 55% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.
  • In TX-22, Republican challenger Pete Olson leads Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson 53% to 36% in a new Zogby poll.
  • In FL-25, GOP Rep. Diaz-Balart leads 45% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. Among early voters, Garcia leads 52% to 46%.
  • In SC-01, GOP Rep. Harry Brown leads 50% to 45% in a new SUSA poll.
  • In TX-07, GOP Rep. Culberson leads 47% to 40% in a Zogby poll.

Jeff Merkley’s numbers are the most important of this group, as this is the Oregon Democrat’s largest lead yet against Gordon Smith, who continues to be stuck in the low 40s. More importantly, SUSA’s polls confirms what was one of the main reasons I changed the ratings of the race to lean Democratic two days ago: Because of Oregon’s mail-in voting system, Election Day is happening right now in Oregon, giving Smith no time to catch up. While remaining ahead, Kay Hagan does not look to be as favored as her Oregon colleague.

A number of fascinating indepenent House polls were released as well, the most noteworthy of which is Zogby’s survey from TX-22: This was long seen as an extremely highly endangered Democatic seat, but the DCCC’s decision to dump hundreds of thousands of dollars suggested they saw Lampson with a chance at surviving. Zogby’s poll indicates that the conventional wisdom was right and that Lampson is an underdog in what is one of the most Republican seats represented by a Democrat. That said, the DCCC has just debuted a very hard-hitting ad on Pete Olsen, accusing him of voter fraud. We will see whether that moves any numbers.

As for CA-04, SC-01 and TX-07, all three are heavily Republican districts and for independent polls to find the Republican under 50% in each and the Democrat leading in one is obviously major news, and confirms that Democrats can expect to prevail in a few heavily conservative seats on November 4th.


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Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, Shadegg stays on top, Reichert and Porter tremble

How would we keep ourselves entertained without Zogby’s theatrics? Seemingly designed to give partisans of both sides heart failures, Zogby’s tracking poll jumped by 4% in one day - the type of bounciness that a tracking poll’s rolling samples are supposed to avoid. I doubt that any of the other tracking polls have ever found that big a one-day jump. But most comical are Zogby’s attempt to dramatize each of his releases, as the smallest trend is treated as a game-changing shift.

Just three days ago, when Obama suddenly grabbed a 12% lead, Zogby celebrated the coming “Reagan-style landslide.” By this morning, Zogby had moved to a gloomy assessment of Obama’s chances and offered a truly incomprehensible insight: “I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him.” I am not sure what that means. A more interesting “magnetic pull” is McCain’s inability to break out of the low 40s, including in Zogby’s polls. In seven new national polls, McCain’s total ranges from 40% to 45%. The day McCain manages to inch above 45%, we can think about whether the race is tightening.

At the state level, the situation remains stable, with Obama maintaining his edge in what have now become his “base” states (he jumps to a 15% edge in New Hampshire, leads by double-digit in two surveys of Iowa) and looking good in the large number of red states, any one of which would get him over the top: He leads by 9% in Virginia, by 4% in Ohio while Missouri is locked in dead heat. Even Arizona no longer looks like a lock for McCain, with two (Democratic) polls showing the race within the margin of error, and McCain’s leads in Georgia and West Virginia are far narrower than was expected. The only bright spot of McCain’s day is a Wisconsin poll released by Rasmussen showing the Republican nominee “only” trailing by 7%… Enough said.

  • Obama gains 1% in Hotline (50% to 42%) and Gallup (52% to 43%, though he loses 2% in the traditional model, 50% to 45%). The race remains stable in Rasmussen (52% to 44%) and IBD/TIPP (47% to 43%). McCain gains 1% in Research 2000 (51% to 40%), 2% in ABC/Washington Post (52% to 45%) and 4% (!) in Zogby (49% to 44%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 8%, 9%, 11%.
  • Obama leads 52% to 43% in a PPP poll of Virginia. Obama led by 8% three weeks ago. Obama now leads independents by 9% and enjoys the same level of party loyalty. Obama leads 61% to 24% among new voters.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin. He led by 10% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 54% to 39% in a University of New Hampshire poll of New Hampshire. Obama only led by 1% earlier this month. 45% of voters now describe themselves as “firm Obama supporters,” versus 32% of McCain supporters. This poll was conducted from the 18th to the 22nd.
  • Missouri: Two polls find a one-point race, well within the margin of error. McCain is ahead 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll (McCain led by 1% in the latter two weeks ago).
  • Arizona: McCain leads 44% to 40% in a poll conducted by Democratic pollsters Myers Research & Grove Insight. Obama leads by 1% among those who have already voted - 34% of the sample. Another poll conducted by Zimmerman & Associates finds McCain leading 45% to 43% only.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Jeanne Shaheen leads 49% to 36% in a UNH poll of the New Hampshire Senate race. She led by 4% in September.
  • In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter grabs a 44% to 39% lead in a UNH poll. She trailed by 3% a month ago. No surprises in NH-02, where Democrat Rep. Hodes dominates.
  • In NV-03, Democratic challenger Titus leads Rep. Porter 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll. Among early voters, Titus leads by 11% and Obama leads by 19%.
  • In WA-08, Reichert and Burner are tied at 46% in a Research 2000 poll. Reichert led by 8% two weeks ago. SUSA and two Democratic internal polls recently found the same trendline in Burner’s favor.
  • In KY-02, a DCCC poll has Democratic candidate David Boswell leading 47% to 41%.
  • In IA-04, GOP Rep. Latham leads Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald 47% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In FL-21, GOP Rep. Diaz Balart leads Raul Martinez 45% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. Martinez leads 55% to 42% among early voters.
  • In MD-01, GOP candidate Andy Harris has a narrow 44% to 40% lead in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In FL-13, GOP Rep. Buchanan leads Christine Jennings 45% to 34% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 12% last month. Among early voters, it is Jennings who has a narrow 3% lead.
  • In AZ-03, GOP Rep. Shadegg leads 50% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll, an improvement over his 9% lead two weeks ago.

A wave of independent House polls bring good news to both parties. Despite the million and a half the DCCC has poured against Shadegg, the Arizona Republican stays at the critical 50% mark; in FL-13, Rep. Buchanan confirms that he is well positioned to survive the blue wave; and in NV-03, Rep. Porter has see worse numbers than this one. That said, Dona Titus remains in a great position to pick-up that latter district, and the one-way spending should only continue to drown Porter.

The news is good for Democrats in NH-01, where Rep. Shea-Porter continues to improve her position, and WA-08, where Darcy Burner has erased the lead Rep. Reichert had opened up over the past month in the second independent poll released this week. Furthermore, Democratic candidates look strong in a large number of second-to-fourth tier contests (FL-21, MD-01, IA-04) and can hope for a few upsets victories on Election Day.


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Poll watch: Obama leads big in OH, PA, FL, IN and more; Franken narrowly ahead

The clock is running out, and the only good news for McCain today is a IBD/TIPP poll that has him only down 1%. But just like yesterday’s AP poll, that appears to be an outlier as seven other national polls show Obama firmly in command (not to mention that IBD/TIPP has McCain with more than 70% among 18-24 year-old respondents). In fact, Obama leads by double-digits in four of the day’s survey, and McCain remains stuck in the low 40s (39% to 45%) in all eight - including IBD/TIPP.

State polls are even more decisive, and they are breaking in favor of Obama rather than against him. Today’s line-up of surveys has Obama posting some big margins across the country, and what is significant is that these surveys come from different institutes, some of which have not been particularly friendly to the Democrat before (National Journal/All State or Big10, for instance). Obama leads by double-digits in five polls of Pennsylvania, three polls of Minnesota, two polls of Wisconsin, two polls of Ohio and one poll each of Michigan, Iowa and Indiana.

Obama also leads outside of the margin of error in two Florida surveys (something McCain has not done in a single Florida poll for four weeks) and captures a narrow advantage in Montana in the first poll that (finally) includes Ron Paul’s name. He is within striking distance in Georgia, where early voting turnout confirms that he has a shot at making the race very close.

Needless to say, Obama needs to capture very few of the states I just mentioned. If he wins just one of the Big Three (OH, PA and FL), he will be in a very good position to capture the presidency; two would ensure victory; and even an (at this point unlikely) defeat in all three would certainly not be the end of his ambitions: A sweep of Colorado, Virginia and Nevada (or any of these replaced by Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) could replace the Keystone State. With all of this in mind, let’s go on to today’s full roundup:

  • Obama maintains a double-digit lead in the latest NYT/CBS poll. He is ahead 52% to 39% (he led by 14% last week). He leads by 6% among independents. 62% feel “personally connected” to Obama, 47% to McCain; more voters think Obama has the right temperament and personality to be president, and more voters think Obama would handle a crisis well. Palin’s favorability rating remains negative.
  • Obama keeps his dominant position in the tracking polls. He gains 2% in Zogby (52% to 40%) and 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 45%). The race stays stable in Hotline (48% to 43%), ABC/Washington Post (54% to 43%) and Research 2000 (51% to 41%). Obama slips 1% in Gallup (51% to 45%) and 3% in IBD/TIPP (where he is only up 1%, 45% to 44%). That puts Obama’s lead in the day’s trackings at: 1%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 10%, 11%, 12%.
  • Ohio: Obama leads by double-digits in two new polls, his biggest leads ever in the state. He leads 52% to 38% in a Quinnipiac survey (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in a Big 10 Battleground poll.
  • Florida: Obama leads outside of the MoE in two new surveys. He is ahead 49% to 44% in a new Quinnipiac poll (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 49% to 42% in a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll. Obama seizes a big lead among independents in the latter, which was taken Monday through Wednesday.
  • Indiana: Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Big10 poll. The race was tied in mid-September.
  • Michigan: Obama leads by a stunning 58% to 36% in a Big10 poll.
  • Georgia: McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. McCain led by 9% two weeks ago.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

  • Proposition 8 is losing 52% to 44% in a PPIC poll. However, the “no” was ahead 55% to 41% five weeks ago.
  • Minnesota’s Senate race: Democrat Al Franken narrowly leads in two polls. In Rasmussen, he is ahead 41% to 37% with 17% for Barkley. Two weeks ago, Franken led by 6%. In a University of Wisconsin poll, he is ahead 40% to 34% with 15% for Barkley.
  • In Kentucky’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In Georgia’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss leads 47% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.
  • In Louisiana’s Senate race, Democratic Sen. Landrieu leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll. She led by 14% last month.
  • In Washington’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll.
  • In IL-11, Democrat Debby Halvorson leads 50% to 37% in a new SUSA poll.
  • In PA-12, Democratic Rep. Murtha is only up 46% to 41% in a new Susquehanna poll.
  • In WA-08, Democrat Darcy Burner storms back to grab a 50% to 46% lead in a new SUSA poll. Reichert trailed by 10% three weeks ago.
  • In MI-09, Democrat Gary Peters leads 46% to 36% against Rep. Knollenberg in a DCCC internal.
  • In OH-15, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leads 44% to 36% in a DCCC poll. She led by the same margin three three weeks ago.
  • In AL-02, Democrat Bobby Bright leads 50% to 43% in a DCCC poll.

Senate: It is difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota Senate race. Barkley is holding stable just under 20%, but his support is not firm: It could end up at a far lower point, but it could also end up rising if voters come to think he has a chance of pulling it off. In either case, it is impossible to know how that would affect Coleman and Franken’s totals.

House: Democrats get great news from SUSA. Darcy Burner appeared to be fading in WA-08, but she has now led in three polls in a row. The first two were Democratic polls, now an independent pollster confirms her comeback. IL-11 was once going to be an easy pick-up before GOP candidate Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient. Now, the Democratic surge appears to have buried Republican prospects of a come-from-behind victory here.

Furthermore, a trio of DCCC poll completes the strong news for Democrats, especially when combined with the NRCC pulling out of MI-09. That said, Susquehanna’s poll from PA-12 confirms the Democrats’ worst fear that Rep. Murtha’s recent comments about his districts has endangered his re-election prospects.


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Poll watch: As LV and RV models split, Obama leads VA, McCain stops bleeding in yet another FL poll

We are starting to see polling taken after the week-end (and thus after the Powell endorsement and McCain’s socialism charge), and there is little sign that McCain is closing the gap. He does gain a bit in two of the tracking polls, but he loses ground in four others, as Zogby, Research 2000 and Washington Post/ABC now all show Obama leading by double-digits. In all 10 of the national polls released today (including the AP survey, about which I will talk in a minute), McCain is stuck in the low 40s, between 40% and 45%.

One possible worry for Obama is that the size of his national lead is due to his gains in states that will not influence the electoral college: We have been seeing Obama open dramatic leads in safe blue states like California and Washington and cut margins significantly in places like Texas and Kentucky. The trends in places like Ohio and Florida are at a much smaller scale (surely because the volume of campaigning and advertisement makes these states less susceptible to follow national trends). So could the size of Obama’s lead in non-battleground states be obscuring a tighter race in the electoral college?

There isn’t much evidence of that in polls from battleground states, where Obama continues to get strong numbers - though he hasn’t put it away the way the way he appears to have secured a popular vote lead. But he dominates in Virginia, where CNN/Time finds him leading by double-digits yet again. Mason-Dixon does find the Old Dominion within the margin of error, but its previous survey had been the only one with McCain ahead since September. Furthermore, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in three out of the five CNN/Time polls (VA, Nevada and Ohio) and is leading within the MoE in two polls of North Carolina.

The good news for McCain comes from Florida: his lead in Mason Dixon is well within the margin of error, but it is the fourth survey in a row to find McCain gaining in the Sunshine State, a significant break from Obama’s fifteen consecutive - many of which were outside of the margin of error.

The second good news for McCain comes from the much-discussed AP poll that has a 1% lead. But three remarks apply here. First, McCain is stuck in the same range as every other poll (the low 40s), and Obama is much lower than his national average. As long as McCain cannot break 45% (or 46% in his best Rasmussen days), he doesn’t have much hope of besting Obama nationally. Second, Marc Ambinder remarks that evangelicals make up about twice as much of the sample as they usually do. Third, this gets us to the important slip between registered voters and likely voters.

Obama leads by 5% among registered voters in AP’s poll, a differential that also exists in Gallup’s tracking (+9% among registered voters, +5% or +8% among likely voters). And it is most dramatic in CNN/Time’s state polls. In all five, Obama performs better among RVs than among LVs (especially in Nevada, where he is ahead by 13% among RVs). What this means is very simple: Obama will benefit from higher turnout, and the size of his lead is partly dependent on how tight a likely voter screen pollsters apply.

There are clear indications that turnout will be larger than usual, particularly among Democrats, meaning that Obama’s lead could range somewhere between the LV screen and the RV results. Early voting numbers are going through the roof among Democrats and African-Americans in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada; furthermore, Gallup’s tracking poll acknowledges that the traditional LV model might not apply - which is why they have an expanded model which closely mirrors the RV results.

That said, it is impossible to predict how large turnout will be and whether Obama’s organization will fully function. And that’s why we have elections. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Obama remains in command of the tracking polls, though they are not moving as uniformly in his direction yesterday. Obama gains 2% in Zogby (up 52% to 42%), 2% in Research 2000 (up 51% to 41%), 2% in Rasmussen (up 51% to 45%) and 2% in Washington Post/ABC (54% to 43%). Hotline finds a stable margin (47% to 42%). McCain gains 2% in Gallup’s expanded likely voter model (52% to 44%, with a 9% lead for Obama among RVs and a 5% lead in the traditional LV model), 2% in IBD/TIPP (46% to 42%). To recap, Obama’s leads are: 4%, 5%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 10%, 11%.
  • Obama leads 49% to 40% in a national Fox News poll conducted Monday and Tuesday. He led by 7% two weeks ago. Who knew a few months ago that Obama would achieve the support of 88% of Democrats (versus 83% of Republicans for McCain)? Interestingly, 66% of Democrats and 47% of independents think that spreading the wealth is a good idea.
  • Obama leads 44% to 43% in a national AP/GfQ poll conducted Thursday through Monday. He led by 7% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% among all adults and by 5% among registered voters, however.
  • Obama leads 50% to 42% in a national poll conducted by Ipsos/McClatchy conducted Thursday through Monday.
  • Obama leads 54% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 42%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 44%.
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Virginia. McCain led by 3% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Ohio, just within the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 45%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 44%, with 2% for Barr (50% to 43% among registered voters).
  • Obama leads 48% to 46% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina.
  • Obama leads 50% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of North Carolina, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 46%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 46%, with 2% for Barr.
  • Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 41%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 2% for Barr.
  • McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Florida. Obama led by 2% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 52% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin, conducted Monday and Tuesday.
  • Obama leads 51% to 38% in a Wisconsin Public Radio poll of Wisconsin. However, the poll was was conducted form the 9th to the 17th, so it is not at all an indicator of what is going on currently on the ground.
  • Obama leads 55% to 36% in an Elway poll of Washington.
  • McCain leads 53% to 42% in an Ivan Moore poll of Alaska. McCain led by 17% two weeks ago.
  • McCain leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of West Virginia, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 44%.
  • McCain leads 42% to 41% in a one-week old poll of West Virginia conducted by Democratic-firm Rainmaker.
  • McCain leads 54% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. He led by 19% last month.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Mark Begich is ahead 47% to 46% in an Ivan Moore poll of the Alaska Senate race. Begich led by 4% two weeks ago.
  • Kay Hagan leads 44% to 43% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.
  • McConnell leads 50% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. He led by 9% three weeks ago.
  • Mary Landrieu leads 54% to 34% in an internal poll of the Louisiana Senate race.
  • Chris Gregoire leads 51% to 39% in an Elway poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race.
  • Perdue and McCrory are tied at 44% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
  • In AK-AL, Ethan Berkowitz leads 51% to 43% against Don Young in an Ivan Moore poll. He led by 9% two weeks ago.
  • In FL-18, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen leads 48% to 41% in an internal poll for Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo.

No big surprises in this batch of congressional polls. If anything, the news is good for the GOP as Sens. Stevens and Dole stay within the margin of error in their respective cases (as we await the verdict of the Stevens trial) and as Mitch McConnell remains ahead outside of the margin of error in Rasmussen’s survey. But the Louisiana numbers are naturally excellent news for Democrats; while Landrieu’s own survey might be overstating her lead, it does confirm the conventional wisdom that the incumbent is ahead.


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Tuesday polls find tight Senate races, large number of competitive red states

So much for that tightening. Not only does Barack Obama extend his lead in four out of the seven major tracking polls (the three others show no movement), he also hits a double-digit lead in two major national polls, Pew and NBC/Wall Street Journal.

What is most problematic for McCain is that he is stuck in the low 40s in most national survey that are being released. Of the nine national polls released today, only three have him above 42%, with McCain hitting a low of 38% and a high of 46%. This is certainly not a good range for a presidential candidate to be stuck in, especially as Obama comes in at 50% or above in seven of these polls. With 13 more days of campaigning left, John McCain is not closing the gap nationally.

The electoral college situation remains highly precarious for McCain, though taken individually a number of polls show signs of life for the Arizona Senator. In today’s polls from red states, Obama only has a lead outside of the margin of error in Insider Advantage’s survey from Colorado - and his advantage there has decreased in each of the past three polls from the institute. Polls in Florida, Indiana, Nevada and (three different surveys) in North Carolina all show the race within the margin of error - underscoring that they are still very much in play.

However, it is remarkable that McCain doesn’t have any sort of lead in any of these states, not even within the margin of error, not even in one of the three North Carolina surveys. Florida, Indiana, Nevada and North Carolina are not states Obama needs to prove himself in, they are states McCain needs to sweep before he can even think of playing catch-up in Colorado - and today’s surveys once again show that for McCain to win them all will require him to recover enough nationally for such a sweep to be plausible. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Obama opens a wide 52% to 38% lead in Pew’s national poll of registered voters; he leads 53% to 39% among likely voters. The poll was taken Thursday through Sunday, and it is a 4% gain for Obama over the previous week. Obama has opened a 21% lead over who would best handle the economy.
  • Obama leads 52% to 42% in an NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll. Sarah Palin’s favorability rating hits negative territory (-9%) for the first time. The poll was taken Saturday through Monday.
  • Obama gains in four out of seven trackings, the three others stable. Obama gains 0.7% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 41%), he gains 2% to lead 50% to 42% in Zogby, and he gains 1% to lead 47% to 41% in Diego Hotline. He also gains in Gallup’s likely voter models, so he is now up 52% to 41% among registered voters, 52% to 42% among likely voters expanded and 51% to 44% among likely voters traditional. Rasmussen (50% and 46%), Research 2000 (50% to 42%) and WaPo/ABC (53% to 44%) have the race stable. To recap, Obama’s leads in the tracking are: 4%, 6%, 6%, 8%, 8%, 9%, 10%.
  • Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll of Florida. Obama led by 3% three weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 46% to 41% in an Insider Advantage poll of Colorado. Obama led by 6% two weeks ago and 9% a month ago, however.
  • Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll of Indiana.
  • The candidates are tied at 47% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina. Obama trailed by 3% two weeks ago. This is the first SUSA poll of NC in which McCain has not led.
  • Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina. Without leaners, his lead is 47% to 42%. Among voters who have already voted, Obama leads 64% to 32%.
  • Obama leads 51% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Wisconsin.
  • McCain leads 52% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of West Virginia. He led by 8% in late September.
  • Safe states: McCain leads 59% to 35% in a SUSA poll of Oklahoma. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Wyoming (Bush won the state by twice as much). Obama leads 56% to 32% in a Chicago Tribune poll of Illinois. McCain leads 54% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of South Carolina. McCain leads 54% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Jeanne Shaheen leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire’s Senate race. She led by 9% last month.
  • McConnell and Lunsford are tied at 48% in a SUSA poll of Kentucky’s Senate race.
  • Kay Hagan leads 44% to 41% in a Civitas poll of the North Carolina Senate race.
  • Hagan leads 46% to 45% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She trailed by 1% two weeks ago.
  • Al Franken leads 39% to 36% with 18% to Barkley in a Star Tribune poll of the Minnesota Senate race. He led by 9% three weeks ago. There are no indications as to which candidate Barkley is drawing the most votes from, and that could be important given how week Barkley’s support is (only 18% of his supporters say they strongly back him); on the other hand, Barkley could surge if voters come to think he is electable.
  • Inhofe leads 51% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Oklahoma’s Senate race. He led by 16% two weeks ago, but 22% six weeks ago.
  • Three polls of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race: Bev Perdue leads 48% to 44% in a PPP poll, and 41% to 40% in a new Civitas poll. But McCrory leads 46% to 43% in SUSA poll.
  • Gov. Daniels leads 57% to 36% in a PPP poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race.
  • In WY-AL, GOP candidate Cynthia Lummis leads 50% to 44% in a new SUSA poll.
  • In ID-01, Democrat Walt Minnick leads 51% to 45% against Rep. Sali in a new SUSA poll.
  • In NH-01, Rep. Shea-Porter leads 48% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll. She led by 1% last month.
  • In NH-02, Rep. Hordes leads 49% to 43% Research 2000 poll. He led by 13% last month, so quite an improvement for his Republican challenger.

These polls underscore just how wide the range of possible Senate scenarios is. While Hagan has inched ahead and while an incumbent stuck in the low 40s is not a good sign, Hagan has not put the race ahead yet; and a number of seats (including Minnesota and Kentucky, as revealed by these polls) are complete dead heats at the moment. As for New Hampshire, Shaheen has not widened her lead over the past month, but Sununu is no longer gaining either, something he seemed to finally be doing in mid-September. With two weeks to go, it looks increasingly unlikely that the incumbent Senator can pull off an upset in the Granite State.


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Poll watch: Trackings converge towards 7% margin, Obama up big in MN and WI, McCain stops bleeding in WV and OH

The tracking polls continue to converge around a 7% differential - certainly a large margin for McCain to overcome, and further evidence that Obama remains firmly in command. Meanwhile, there continues to be a dearth of state polls (which is surprising 16 days from Election Day), and the day’s few results bring some good news for both candidates.

On the one hand, McCain can take comfort in two polls of West Virginia showing him ahead outside of the margin of error. [Update: I am not suggesting, as some commentators gently criticize me for, that McCain leading in WV is an impressive feat, and yes, the state wasn't supposed to be competitive to begin with. That said, McCain's problem is the huge number of red states that are highly vulnerable, any one of which would tip the balance to Obama. With that in mind, for McCain to hold on to WV in two polls when ARG had Obama leading by 8% and Insider Advantage had the race within the MoE is certainly comforting for McCain.]

McCain can also be relieved by Mason-Dixon’s poll of Ohio. His lead in that survey might only be 1%, but Obama has run ahead in most OH polls taken in October. However, OH has been more resistant to Obama’s surge than other battlegrounds so it is less noteworthy to find McCain leading here than in VA or CO. Obama, meanwhile, continues to get great news from blue states. Three new polls show WI and MN are both in double-digit territory, and Obama has pretty much put all the blue states away. Also, a new poll of MT in the heels of three ND poll finding a tight race confirms that the Mountain West is back in play.

Before moving on to the full roundup of the day’s polls, I want to take a separate look at Zogby’s tracking poll. Longtime readers of this blog know that I very rarely question a poll because if we wanted to play that game we could find a fishy internal in every survey, and that’s not an interesting game to play. But Zogby’s decision to weigh partisan affiliation with only a 2% margin between Republicans and Democrats is incomprehensible.

Zogby’s internals show Obama leading by 8% among independents and getting 88% among Democrats. If Election Day numbers are anywhere close to that, there is no way Obama will lose the election. And this is not just the Democrats’ wishful thinking: All the raw data on registration trends and all public opinion surveys (for instance Pew’s) leave no doubt that there has been a significant shift in partisan affiliation over the past four years. In fact, applying (Republican pollster) Rasmussen’s party weights to Zogby’s internals gives us a 9% race.

If a pollster went out in the field to measure the electorate’s party affiliation and found only a 2% gap, Democrats ought to be worried. But Zogby did not go out in the field and discover that other pollsters were wrong based on his own interviews; rather, he decided to apply a 36%-34% weighting system a priori, regardless of what data his polling brought back. Now, it is certainly possible that the partisan differential will be closer to Zogby’s numbers than to those of all other pollsters, but if that were to happen it would mean that all the assumptions and voter registration trends we have been working with have been wrong - at which point Democrats will have a lot more to worry about than the electorate’s party breakdown.

Until other polls confirm that the electorate’s partisan ID has tightened (and for now, the contrary is true), take Zogby’s results with a grain of salt. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Tracking polls continue to show rare convergence around a 7% margin. Research 2000 and Diego Hotline are both stable at that level, and Obama gains 3% in Gallup’s expanded likely voter model to lead by seven (he leads by 3% in the traditional model and by 10% among registered voters). Obama gains one point in Rasmussen to capture a 51% to 45% lead. IBD/TIPP (a five-day tracking, so there still are two pre-debate days) has a 5% race, a 2% gain for McCain and back to where we were two days ago. Finally, Zogby has Obama leading by 3% today, down from 4% yesterday (no matter what we think of Zogby’s partisan weighing, the trend line is still valuable so I will continue posting the results of the poll.
  • McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Thursday and Friday, and it is a clear improvement for McCain over past Ohio polls.
  • Obama leads 52% to 41% in a Star Tribune poll of Minnesota. He led by 18% two weeks ago. The poll was taken Thursday and Friday.
  • Obama leads 51% to 39% in a Mason Dixon poll of Wisconsin. The poll was taken Thursday and Friday.
  • McCain leads 47% to 41% in a Mason Dixon poll of West Virginia. The poll was taken Thursday and Friday.
  • McCain leads 50% to 42% in a PPP poll of West Virginia.
  • McCain leads 49% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of Montana. He led by 13% in mid-September.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

  • Al Franken leads 41% to 39% with Barkley at 18% in a Research 2000 poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Barkley gets 15% of Democrats and only 8% of Republicans… Among independents, the breakdown is 33-32-32!
  • McConnell leads 46% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. McConnell led by 13% a month ago. (24% of African-Americans say they are undecided, so Lunsford might have a bigger reservoir of votes.)
  • Bev Perdue leads 48% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. She over-performs Obama and Hagan, something we had not seen in the past few surveys.
  • In WY-AL, a Mason Dixon poll finds Democrat Gary Trauner leading 44% to 43%.
  • Safe seats: In Montana, Research 2000 finds no reason the GOP House representative and the Democratic governor should worry.

Research 2000’s poll from Minnesota is one of the first suggestions we have had that Barkley is hurting Franken more than he is hurting Coleman. His candidacy makes Minnesota’s Senate race very difficult to handicap, as it is hard to know the direction third party candidates will take in the final stretch: If voters come to think that Barkley has a shot at winning, his total could shoot upwards - and there is no telling how that would affect the Coleman-Franken match-up.

Meanwhile, Kentucky’s race is certainly competitive, but polls have found the race within the MoE since late September. Will Lunsford be able to pull ahead by Election Day? The best sign for Lunsford is that McConnell is well under 50% in most polls, and the undecided-break-for-the-challenger rule applies even more strongly in the case of such an entrenched incumbent.


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GOP defense, Dem offense: Everyone’s shifting resources to red states

The Republican ship is sinking, and it is happening up and down the ballot, with states, Senate seats and House districts no one thought would even be talked about now looking like dead heats. The GOP is retreating, trying to build some sort of firewall that would enable it to hold its position while Democrats are spending prodigious resources seeking to dramatically expand the map to staunchly red territory.

West Virginia and… Kentucky?!: Who would have thought on May 13th that Obama had any chance of making West Virginia remotely competitive? He had just been crushed by Hillary Clinton in a state that could have made Al Gore president. Yet, after weeks of speculation and polls showing the campaigns neck-and-neck, the campaign is now airing ads in the state! Not only that, but the campaign is discussing airing ads in North Dakota, Georgia and… Kentucky!

It is somewhat surprising, then, that Obama is not including Arkansas, a historically Democratic state that is probably becoming more competitive if West Virginia is tightening. There have been a grand total of three polls since mid-June, so it is hard to tell. But what is most interesting in Obama’s choice to contest these states is what it signifies about Appalachia’s demographics: Democrats are no longer afraid that Obama will be crushed among the region’s blue-collar white voters. Beyond West Virginia, that puts Obama in a very strong position in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The Obama campaign is now all-offense, all the time and across the board. It has enough money to contest more than a dozen red states, and McCain cannot afford to give any of them up besides Iowa and New Mexico. And the GOP simply doesn’t have the resources, the time and the breadth of surrogates to do that. If McCain is going to change the dynamic of the campaign, he needs to do so at the national level.

RNC pulls out of Maine and Wisconsin, moves in Colorado and Missouri: The GOP has been retreating from the blue states, and here are two more signs of that. Sure, the McCain campaign is staying on the airwaves in Wisconsin, so this does not represent as consequential a pull-out as the Michigan stunner, but it is undoubtedly a sign that numbers are not moving in McCain’s direction. It is also striking how quickly the RNC moved in and out of Maine, as they only started airing advertisements in the state last week.

But it is now all defense for the GOP, as McCain needs to sweep all the remaining competitive red states - a number of which are now leaning Obama. Given that McCain has always spent heavily on Colorado, it is telling that the RNC feels the need to move in there: Republicans are worried that Obama is now preparing to up his advertisement even more, even in states whose airwaves are seemingly saturated.

Obama (partially) pulls out of Michigan: When McCain (stunningly) dropped Michigan two weeks ago, Democrats warned that they did not trust the sincerity of that move and that they suspected the GOP of looking to move back in once Democrats had let off their guard. As a result, Obama continued heavy advertising for the past two weeks (he spent more than $2 million last week, compared to… zero spending for from the GOP) and kept his staff in place to continue organizing a heavy ground game. But with most polls now showing Obama leading by double-digits in what was once seen as the ultimate battleground state of this election, even his campaign is now decreasing its efforts.

The campaign is scaling back TV buys and sending away many Michigan paid staffers to other states. It is unclear where exactly these staffers are going, but early indicators point to North Carolina and Missouri - red states that Obama is now highly contesting but that he might not have had the resources to fully compete in until recently.

That said, Obama is keeping about 200 paid staffers in the state whereas McCain moved almost every single one of his out. That should guarantee that Obama’s Michigan team will be able to hold off any late October McCain surge, and it will also prove a tremendous boost in Democratic prospects in MI-07 and MI-09.

NRSC pulls out of Louisiana, moves in Georgia: This same pattern is holding at the congressional level, where the NRSC has just pulled the plug on John Kennedy’s Louisiana campaign. This was the GOP’s only chance at a pick-up - and it was a very strong one: it was ranked 5th in my Senate rankings a year ago, and Kennedy led in a few polls. And when the NRSC unveiled its first ad against Landrieu in mid-September, it looked like we were indeed in for a competitive race. But Landrieu had opened up an edge, and the NRSC simply cannot afford to spend money to help Kennedy when it has so many endangered incumbents to take care of! Without national money, Kennedy is likely to be swamped under the DSCC and Landrieu’s attacks.

Instead, the NRSC has chosen to invest in Georgia. Not Minnesota, Oregon, North Carolina, or New Hampshire (all states in which GOP incumbents really need help), but red Georgia that was nowhere on the radar screen as of early August. The DSCC just moved in the state with a $500,000 buy, polls are showing a tightening race and early voting has started. It is panic time for Senate Republicans, as the firewall keeps being lowered.

The good news for Republicans is that only three to four of their seats seem to be lost for sure at the moment. All the others - including Alaska, Oregon and North Carolina - could go both ways. The bad news is that current trendlines are not favoring the GOP - but they hhave 20 days to change that.


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Battleground watch: GOP ticket visiting red states but misusing its time

A campaign that is underfunded and under-organized should have only one preoccupation: maximize free media. Holding as many events is the only way to increase coverage in the local press and counter your opponent’s financial ability to control the airwaves war.

This is why it was so striking to read in today’s Wall Street Journal that the McCain campaign has managed to under-perform even in this department! Since the end of the GOP convention, John McCain, Cindy McCain and Sarah Palin have held a combined 56 events in contested states, versus 95 for the Obamas and Joe Biden - a huge discrepancy in just 5 weeks of campaigning, and one that has important consequences in the amount of media coverage each side gets.

This is due to the fact that Cindy does not campaign by herself the way Michelle does and to the fact that McCain and Palin have been holding much more joint rallies than Obama and Biden. Sure, that has helped McCain draw much bigger crowds than he was before he announced his vice-presidential pick, but it also means that the GOP ticket is covered in one media market instead of two.

This does not even account for the fact that Democrats have two surrogates - Bill and Hillary Clinton - that are now actively hitting the campaign trail and that are sure to draw heavy coverage wherever they travel. Republicans have no one with equivalent star power who can increase their ticket’s reach. Yesterday, the Clintons held a joint event with Joe Biden in Scranton, but they also headline events on their own. Today, Hillary made news in Philadelphia while Biden is in New Hampshire and Obama is in Ohio.

In other words, the McCain campaign is being outworked in television advertisements because of finances and in the amount of free media coverage it earns.

To make matters worse, the GOP ticket now has finally come to realize it has to play defense in the red states it had been neglecting for the past few months and where only Obama has been visible for months, both because of sustained media buys and because of a heavy schedule of campaign events. McCain is appearing in North Carolina for the first time since May today, as he holds an event in eastern North Carolina, a region with conservative Democrats - the very constituency that has shifted towards Obama since the financial crisis erupted. Meanwhile, Sarah Palin has been dispatched to Indiana, a state neither she or McCain have visited since the Arizona Senator held an event on July 1st (even that event was a speech at a national conference rather than an rally targeted at Indiana).

However, and contrary to prior reports, Palin is not scheduled to hold an event in West Virginia. Given that recent polls show a tight race in what was expected to be a safe McCain state, it is possible that the McCain campaign be forced to organize some emergency measures in the state, but West Virginia is unlikely to fall without neighboring states. For Obama to prevail here would mean that he has taken care of his weaknesses among culturally conservative Democrats, blue collar workers and Appalachia residents to such an extent that he would be likely to win Ohio, Pennsylvania and perhaps even North Carolina.

With the GOP ticket now forced to defend an increasing number of vulnerable red states, you would think they would finally have given up on Iowa, a state that fell out of contention months ago - but you would be wrong. Not only is the McCain campaign staying on the airwaves and has yet to divert its staff out of the Hawkeye State, but the campaign has sent out one of the toughest mailers to pop up anywhere in the country. It accuses Democrats and Obama of neglecting Iowa while it was flooded this spring.

Finally, the Atlanta Journal Constitution gives us a useful reminder that the registration numbers we have bee parsing over the past week or two are not yet final and that the Democrats’ gains could still come out to be slightly larger than what they are now being reported. The registration deadline was October 6th in most states, but in many localities the amount of registration forms that were sent in the final days if not on the last Monday were so large that many offices have yet to process thousands of registration forms.

Meanwhile, in other news from battleground states:

  • Time observes the ground game in Virginia and highlights differences between the two campaigns.
  • The Denver Post goes to great length to explore why Colorado is a toss-up. Though the latest polls show Obama building an advantage, it is still a worthwhile story on the state’s dynamics.
  • The Saint Petersburg Times provides more anecdotal evidence that the economic crisis is shifting the votes of the blue-collar electorate by taking a detailed look at Scranton. In other news from Pennsylvania, the New York Times confirms that college campuses are Obama territory.
  • Salon wonders what happened to North Carolina - a question I think many of us have been asking ourselves for the past few months.

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10th presidential ratings: Obama surges past the 300 mark

There is no doubt that Barack Obama is currently in command of the presidential race, and the past two weeks have seen a dramatic shift in public sentiment. Obama has surged to a stunningly dominant position in all of the Gore and Kerry states (accounting for a total of 264 votes), as the financial crisis undercut months of Republican efforts in Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. At the same time, McCain’s position has been severely damaged in a large number of red states, most dramatically in states like Florida and Missouri that just a month ago seemed to be drifting out of Obama’s reach.

The most difficult decision in this update of my presidential ratings was not whether to lift Obama above the threshold of 270 electoral college, but which red states should be moved to the lean Obama column for him to achieve that feat. The reason the Democrat is in such a dominant position is not simply that he now looks to be slightly ahead in a number of red states (Colorado, Florida and Virginia are here being moved from the toss-up to the lean Obama column) but that he has a high single-digit lead in national surveys.

This situation is one we have not encountered in the past two presidential elections: national surveys matter just as much (if not more) than those at the state level. McCain might still be competitive in all the red states but New Mexico and Iowa, but, unless he substantially improves his position in national polls, it is highly improbable that he can pull off a sweep of all the states he needs to defend - Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia. All of these states are now at best a toss-up for the McCain campaign. The loss of a single one would likely lead to an Obama presidency.

As a result of these shifts, 313 electoral votes are now rated safe, likely or lean Obama - far more than the 270 (or 269) he needs to win the presidency. There are an additional 62 electoral votes that are rated as toss-ups.

However, remember that states that are in the “lean” category are considered to be very competitive and certain to be hotly contested. That means that Obama might be favored to win in November, but his election is no lock. A shift towards the GOP over the next two weeks - perhaps because of Wednesday’s debate - could easily lead Florida, Virginia and Colorado to move back to the toss-up column and Indiana and Missouri to move back to the lean McCain category, leading to a more competitive electoral college.

Without further delay, here are the tenth electoral college ratings (states whose ratings have been changed towards Obama are colored blue, those whose ratings have been changed towards McCain are colored red):

  • Safe McCain: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (122 EVs)
  • Likely McCain: Alaska, Arizona, Nebraska’s 1st district, North Dakota (17 EVs)
  • Lean McCain: Georgia, Montana, Nebraska’s 2nd districtWest Virginia (24 EVs)
  • Toss-up: Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio (62 EV)
  • Lean Obama: Colorado, Florida, Maine’s 2nd district, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin (79 EVs)
  • Likely Obama: Iowa, Oregon, Maine (at-large + 1st district), Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington (81 EVs)
  • Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont (153 EVs)

This gives us the following map and totals:

  • Safe + Likely Obama: 234 electoral votes
  • Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 313
  • Toss-up: 62
  • Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 163
  • Safe + Likely McCain: 139

I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past two weeks:

Colorado, toss-up to lean Obama: Colorado’s move into the Obama column was a long time coming. McCain proved remarkably resilient in the state throughout the summer, and by August Colorado looked like the ultimate toss-up. But Democrats gathered in Denver in late August, giving their party added exposure and shifting public opinion in Obama’s favor. Since the convention, at least twenty polls have been released from Colorado, and McCain has only led in two of them (both were taken before the financial crisis erupted, and McCain’s lead in both was within the margin of error). By contrast, Obama has surged to leads outside of the MoE in Rasmussen, CNN/Time, Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac - and even a double digit lead in the latest PPP survey.

One thing that McCain has going for him is that his campaign never neglected Colorado (unlike other endangered red states) and thus has enough of a ground game to stay in the game. Furthermore, Obama is only outspending McCain by 50% in the state (as of the last week of September), which is far less impressive than in other states. Thus, Colorado remains competitive - but with 23 days to go, the edge goes to Obama.

Florida, toss-up to lean Obama: Everything predisposed Florida to be tilting away from Obama: the high number of senior citizens, the importance of the Jewish vote, the fact that Florida had been far more solidly Republican in 2004 than it had in 2000. Yet, a combination of factors have led the dynamics to shift in the state: the Palin pick hurt McCain among Jewish voters, the economic crisis led Obama to surge among registered Democrats and (perhaps most importantly) Obama’s massive spending throughout the summer helped him slowly chip away at McCain’s advantage since the GOP didn’t spend anything in the state’s airwaves throughout the summer.

Even now, Obama is pouring stunning amounts of money in the state (Plouffe said the campaign had budgeted a jaw-dropping $39 million for its Florida efforts) and he outspent the GOP nearly 5:1 in the last week of September! Put all of this together, and it looks like Democrats could avenge the 2000 recount: Obama has led in the 9 most recent Florida polls, a streak that is all the more impressive because a good number of these surveys have Obama ahead outside of the MoE.

Georgia, likely McCain to lean McCain: Poll numbers are tightening after a McCain surge in early September, and early voting numbers hint at very strong turnout among African-American voters. Yet, the Obama campaign pulled out of Georgia a month ago, meaning that a Democratic win in this state would coincidence with an electoral landslide nationally and it would signify that Obama is strong enough in the southern white vote to carry North Carolina and Virginia as well.

Maine’s 2nd district, likely Obama to lean Obama: This is the day’s only rating change that favors McCain. The Arizona Senator moved some resources in Maine as he pulled out of Michigan. And recent polls that show Obama leading by mid-single digits in the state explain why: the second district’s vote is typically a few points more Republican than the statewide total, and that could allow McCain to take away this electoral vote.

Michigan, lean Obama to likely Obama: McCain’s October 2nd pull-out might have come as a complete shock, but the Wolverine State now looks to be a relatively safe Obama hold. Obama has surged to a 16% lead in the latest Rasmussen poll, and the Democrat’s lead will be further protected by the fact that the Obama campaign is not letting down its guard in the state and will continue to organize a strong ground game. But not only have the McCain campaign and the RNC left the state, but the state’s Republican leaders are now badmouthing the McCain campaign.

Missouri, lean McCain to toss-up: Republicans were hoping to have put Missouri away by mid-September as they did in 2004 to be able to concentrate their resources in other vulnerable states, and for a while it looked like the Show Me State was anchoring itself in the GOP column. Not only has Obama closed the gap in SUSA and Research 2000, but he has even taken a narrow lead in the latest CNN/Time and Rasmussen numbers (see polling history). Furthermore, Obama is keeping up a heavy investment in Missouri, outspending the GOP nearly 3:1 the last week of September. This is certainly not where Republicans were expecting to be in mid-October.

Nebraska’s 2nd district, likely McCain to lean McCain: The Obama campaign is making an active push here at the moment. Omaha residents have been seeing Obama’s advertisements for months, since they share a media market with Western Iowa, and Obama just opened a second staffed office in the district. Still a long shot for Democrats, but the McCain campaign is worried enough to have dispatch Sarah Palin to the state.

New Hampshire, toss-up to lean Obama: In 2006, in no state did the Republican Party drown as much as in New Hampshire, whose independents massively turned towards Democratic candidates. Yet, McCain had high hopes for the Granite State, whose independent voters carried him to victory in 2000 against Bush and in 2008 against Romney - and McCain looked highly competitive in New Hampshire polls… until three weeks ago. As the GOP brand has once again collapsed in the wake of the economic crisis, Democrats are more looking confident that they can repeat their 2006 sweep and polls are now showing Obama leading by substantial margins - often in double-digits.

Pennsylvania, toss-up to likely Obama: Many readers of this website criticized me for leaving Pennsylvania in the toss-up column for so long. But as long as Obama regularly polled under 80% of registered Democrats, there was no reason to move Pennsylvania in his column. After all, in few states could culturally conservative Democrats and blue-collar voters hurt the Illinois Senator as much as Pennsylvania. But the economic crisis dramatically transformed the field of play: Obama has jumped to solid levels of party loyalty, and his numbers in Pennsylvania have surged. The past five surveys all have him leading by double digits, between 12% and 15%! That said, the GOP is keeping up its efforts in Pennsylvania, McCain is still visiting the state, and his campaign is still pouring in millions of dollars, so Obama will still have to work to lock the state.

Virginia, toss-up to lean Obama: The polls have significantly shifted towards the Illinois Senator over the past two weeks. McCain did post a lead within the MoE in a Mason Dixon survey, but Obama has jumped to impressive leads in CNN/Time (9%), SUSA (10%), Suffolk (12%), PPP (8%), Insider Advantage (6%). But Virginia is Republican enough a state that I might have left it in the toss-up column if it weren’t for another factor: the McCain campaign has inexplicably neglected the Old Dominion. It was one thing to not believe that North Carolina or Indiana were actually competitive, but it was evident from the early days of the 2008 cycle that Virginia was highly competitive. Yet, Obama has basically had the state’s airwaves for himself for much of the spring and summer, as McCain invested a small fraction of Obama’s spending - and only in Northern Virginia. The RNC recently moved in the state, but Obama is still significantly outspending the GOP’s efforts. The different levels of commitment will also have crucial consequences on the ground game, and it is unlikely McCain can come anywhere near the organizational power Obama has developed in the state.

West Virginia, likely McCain to lean McCain: This is a historically Democratic state that was not supposed to be competitive this year. Nowhere was Obama as crushed by Hillary Clinton in the primaries as in West Virginia, and the Illinois Senator was hurt by his weakness among blue collar voters in Appalachia. Yet, the economic crisis has led registered Democrat to do something they don’t always want to do - vote Democratic in federal races, and nowhere has that changed the game as much as in Appalachia. ARG’s recent poll showing Obama leading by 8% might have been an outlier, but McCain can certainly not count on an easy victory in this state, and Sarah Palin has been dispatched here to fire up conservatives.

History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:

  • October 12th: + 150 Obama (313 for Obama [153 safe, 81 likely, 79 lean] and 163 for McCain [122 safe, 17 likely, 24 lean])
  • September 27th: + 55 Obama (239 for Obama [154 safe, 43 likely, 42 lean] and 174 for McCain [122 safe, 38 likely, 14 lean])
  • September 20th: +6 Obama (222 for Obama [154 safe, 19 likely, 49 lean] and 216 for McCain [119 safe, 41 likely, 56 lean])
  • August 31st: + 16 Obama (243 for Obama [154 safe, 29 likely, 60 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
  • August 20th: + 14 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 32 likely, 55 lean] and 224 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
  • July 30th: + 38 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 42 likely, 45 lean] and 200 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 35 lean])
  • July 16th: +28 Obama (255 for Obama [150 safe, 43 likely, 62 lean] and 227 for McCain [90 safe, 78 likely, 59 lean])
  • July 2rd: +11 Obama (238 for Obama [143 safe, 50 likely, 45 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 78 likely, 56 lean])
  • June 18th: +22 Obama (238 for Obama [86 safe, 97 likely, 55 lean] and 216 for McCain [87 safe, 87 likely, 42 lean])
  • June 4th: +20 McCain (207 for Obama [76 base, 107 likely, 24 lean] and 227 for McCain [97 safe, 77 likely, 53 lean])


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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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