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Category Archive for ‘WA-Dem’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'WA-Dem' Category


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Two more Obama triumphs get Clinton on the brink of elimination

With another big night that extended his winning streak to ten contests, Barack Obama made March 4th as irrelevant as he possibly could have.

How likely was such a scenario in the morning of February 6th? After Super Tuesday, the two candidates looked to be stuck in a stalemate with no end in sight. We knew that Obama was favored to win the rest of the February voting states, but such a sweep was supposed to be quickly erased by losses on March 4th, prolonging the primary into a drawn-out battle for each delegate.

Instead, Obama has done much more than hold his serve in the ten contests that have taken place since February 5th. He not only swept every single one of them, but he did so with astonishing ease, crushing her repeatedly and opening up a wide pledged delegate lead. Obama faced high expectations, and was not necessarily going to get much credit even from a victory, but he exceeded them in almost every single contest – a truly remarkable accomplishment.

Obama’s victory in Wisconsin tonight is a dramatic exclamation point to this series. All pollsters (even ARG) had Obama leading in the state, but the conventional wisdom held that the race would remain competitive. After all, the Clinton campaign seemed determined to keep the race tight in a way they had not attempted in the last few voting states. Not only did the candidate herself spend the last few days in the state, but her campaign also

Wisconsin’s demographics also appeared to favor neither Clinton nor Obama, making this contest particularly interesting. On the one hand, Wisconsin’s electorate is particularly receptive to anti-war and populist arguments (it is not a coincidence that Howard Dean chose Wisconsin as his last stand in 2004); it also has a significant student population. On the other hand, the state has a significant working-class population, a group which Clinton had relied on until recently to carry her to victories.

Considering the momentum Obama has been riding in recent weeks, it was logical to expect that the Illinois Senator would win Wisconsin tonight. But the size of his victory – 58% to 41% — was not expected. Clinton will have a very difficult time justifying this defeat considering that she made an effort to limit her losses here. Her strategy of more aggressive contrasts, in particular, does not seem to have been fruitful at all – and that will certainly influence the way the campaign approaches Texas and Ohio.

More importantly, the exit polls reveal that Obama might be breaking the stalemate the Democratic campaign had been in for some time now. Week after week, different constituencies were barely shifting their allegiance, guaranteeing tight elections and preventing any sense of resolution from emerging. But in Wisconsin, Obama has also struck at the heart of Hillary Clinton’s base, improving his standing among her core constituencies.

He tied her among women, riding a 36% lead among men (and a massive gender gap) to victory). He prevailed comfortably among the least educated voters – even High School graduates – as well as across income groups. Clinton still polls fares better the lower a voter’s family income, but she can no longer rely on voters making less than $50,000 to rescue her. Obama even came out with a healthy 7% lead among registered Democrats.

At the same time, Obama’s advance among groups that were already supporting him keeps growing. 70% of voters between the age of 18 and 29 voted for him, as well as 91% of African-Americans (Obama has only recently started passing the 90% threshold among the black vote).

Obama looks to have finally found the key to appealing to Clinton’s key constituencies, and the New York Senator will be in a world of trouble on March 4th if she does not find a way to motivate women and the working-class (as well as Latinos, whom she depends on heavily in Texas). The first signs of this trend had appeared in the Potomac Primary, but Wisconsin has made it that much more dramatic.

Boosted also by his huge victory in the Hawaii caucuses (74% to 26%, which should represent a 14 to 6 delegate split according to my calculations), Obama has built on his pledged delegate lead. Campaign Diaries’s most recent count gives him 1189 to Clinton’s 1041, with 9 outstanding. This alone makes March 4th as irrelevant as Obama could have dreamt it of being on the morning of February 6th: Clinton needs to win Ohio and Texas to stay alive, and she needs to do so by margins significant enough that she can cut in Obama’s delegate lead. But even big Clinton victories – and it is unclear how she could rise high at this point, given her decline among the groups she is the most dependent on – will not worry the Obama camp too much. A 148 delegate lead cannot be lost that easily, and there still are plenty of states voting that Obama is confident will allow him to build on his delegate lead (Mississippi, Wyoming, for instance).
Hillary Clinton still has two major opportunities to stop Obama’s march towards the nomination. There are two debates that are coming up, the first one this Thursday in Texas, and Clinton believes that she has an advantage in this format that could allow her to at best regain some ground and ride strong performances to big victories, and at worst to change the storyline and halt Obama’s momentum. These two upcoming debates should certainly not be dismissed. After all, there have been plenty of debates that have profoundly altered the state of the race so far in this contest – October’s Philadelphia debate that marked the beginning of Clinton’s decline, January 5th New Hampshire debate after which the women vote rallied around the New York Senator, the South Carolina slugfest helped Obama get a massive victory on January 19th, and the California debate a few days before Super Tuesday allowed Hillary to stop the bleeding and hold her own on February 5th.

And Clinton did get one piece of good news tonight. In the Washington primary, Clinton only trails Obama by 3%, 49% to 46%. At this time, the contest has not yet been called. Unfortunately for Hillary, there are no delegates awarded out of this contest, so she once again can point to a beauty contest to reassuring news, but the hope she had out of this primary had nothing to do with delegates. Ten days ago, Obama trounced Clinton in the Washington caucuses – 68% to 31%. The Clinton campaign has been working to argue that caucuses are undemocratic processes in which only a small number of voters can participate, leaving man disenfranchised. Since Obama got many of his biggest wins (and thus a lot of his edge in delegate) from caucuses, the Clinton campaign has been hoping to discredit Obama’s pledged delegate lead by questioning the validity of caucuses.

Now, the Clinton campaign will have evidence to back up its claim. A 37% humiliation in the February 9th caucus has become a too close to call contest, in what is right now a 34% swing. And turnout has been very strong – superior to the Republican primary turnout, and the GOP was awarding delegates tonight. It is hard to entirely dismiss the numbers from Washington, just as it is difficult to ignore Florida’s. And look for Clinton to press the anti-caucus charge in the coming days.

Ultimately, this is not an argument for voters but for superdelegates. As it is looking increasingly likely that Clinton will not be able to catch up Obama’s lead among pledged delegates, she needs to give some sort of cover to her backers, an argument they can use to justify their not rallying behind the party’s frontrunner. And the results of the Washington primary are precisely that type of argument.

But that presupposes that Clinton remains relatively close in the pledged delegate count. And much before Oh
io and Texas cast their votes, it is starting to look like the former frontrunner might not even achieve that. And no one would have predicted that on February 6th.


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Feb. 19th resuts thread: McCain, Obama win Wisconsin

3am: Hawaii looks set to go for Obama, who leads his former home-state 74% to 26% with 26% of the vote reporting. Hawaii awards 20 delegates, so this could end sinking Clinton even more in the delegate count (if the district breakdown holds as it is now, the delegate attribution should be 14-6).

1:30am: With 97% of precincts reporting in Wisconsin, Obama leads 58% to 41%, with a 38 to 27 delegate lead. 9 more have to be allocated. Clinton has not fallen as far behind here as in some of the previous contests, but given how far she is already she really could not afford even this margin.
Results from Hawaii have not yet started coming in, and the Washington primary is still within 3% (with Obama narrowly up) with 56% reporting.

11:55pm: With 45% reporting in Washington, Obama is now ahead 50% to 46% (stil much closer than the caucuses were) and McCain is way ahead, 48% to 21% (he also runs much better than he did in the caucuses).
Meanwhile, the delegate allocation in Wisconsin has been updated to 31-22, with 21 still outstanding.

11:30pm: John McCain called the winner in Washington, where he should get once again a huge share of delegates. But the Democratic race appears surprisingly tight! With 25% of the vote in (and more than 200,000 ballots counted), Hillary is actually ahead 49% to 47% (keep in mind that she lost the state’s caucuses by 36% 10 days ago). Unfortunately for her, there are no delegates at stake here for Dems.

11pm: The polls have closed in Washington, though it does not look like the Democratic results will be easy to find, nor that an exit poll has been conducted for Republicans (though 19 delegates are at stake).
In Wisconsin, Obama is leading 57% to 42% with 72% reporting, a large margin that definitely exceeds expectations. The delegate count right is now 20 for Obama and 14 for Clinton, with many more obviously still outstanding. Obama’s victory speech lasted about 45 minutes, much longer than usual, and Obama ended up going into more substantive points than he usually does.

9:40pm:
Clinton’s speech, a preview of the new stump speech she will use starting tomorrow, drew as direct contrasts as she ever has, especially on health care. We will hear more about this speech when she gives its longer version… and she better hope we will because Obama took the stage a few minutes after Clinton had started her speech, forcing the networks to choose who to cover and leading to the very early interruption of her stump speech. Obama’s camp cannot not have known what it was doing here; I guess it’s a good strategic move, but not the most gracious one. (Meanwhile, with 12% reporting, Obama is leading 55% to 44%.)

9:25pm: Wisconsin is called for Obama
, as exit polls had been suggesting for a few hours now. The question now is how big his victory is, and how big of a hit she will take in the delegate count.

9:15pm:
The third wave of exit polls is now out and Obama is ahead about 55% to 44% (The numbers that were circulating at 6pm suggested a bigger lead, and I did not mention the exact numbers since second wave polls are rarely that correct; so let’s all calm down in the comments here). Clinton kept a very narrow lead among women, 51-48. Obama crushes her among men, 66% to 32%. That’s a 37% gender gap. But Obama has a comfortable lead among lower-income voters, leading 53% to 46% among families with income of less than $50,000. The two candidates are tied among those with no college education. Among registered Dems (63%), Obama gets 51% to Clinton’s 48%. Among Republicans (9%), Obama is ahead 70% to 30%. And among independents, it’s 62% to 34%.

9pm:
Polls close in Wisconsin, and John McCain is (unsurprisingly) called the winner. On the Democratic side, no call yet, though Wolf Blitzer evokes an exit poll lead for Obama.

6:30pm
: The second wave of exit polls from Wisconsin has been leaked, and it shows a huge Obama lead (much more than double-digits). Now remember, this is a second wave exit polls, leaked 3 hours before the polls close, so the results could look very different. I don’t think I have to remind many of you of what the second wave exit polls were showing on February 5th (Clinton barely up in California, a tie in Massachusetts, with Obama up by more than he ended up being in places like Missouri and Connecticut).

So take these numbers with great caution until we get the last wave of exits in a few hours, but it’s hard to not point out that for now the numbers look very bad for Hillary. For one, the electorate is described as “less affluent” than in previous primaries, which could mean that Obama has struck at the core of Clinton’s base (right now he is very narrowly leading among women and families with income under $50,000; as a comparison point, Clinton won that group by 6% even in CT, a state she lost handily).

Original post: Here is this cycle’s eleventh results thread: Wisconsin, Hawaii and Washington will be going to the polls, and the first results will not come until 9pm ET. Turnout has been described as “steady” in Wisconsin, with the cold and snowy weather not helping push voters to the poll. In fact, turnout is reported at different rates in different regions of the state, which could possibly influence the results.

For now, here are some guidelines of what to watch for tonight.


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Feb. 19th guidelines: Can Obama finish off his February sweep?

Three states are going to the polls today (2 of which will be voting in the Democratic contest). First, Wisconsin is holding its primary, allocating 74 delegates for Dems and 37 for the GOP. Polls close at 9pm ET. Second, we will get results from the Washington state primary, where polls close at 11pm ET. There are no delegates at stake for Democrats, and 19 for Republicans. Finally, the Hawaii Democratic caucuses will end around 12:30am ET, so the results of the day’s last contest will likely not be known until late in the night.

As always, I will stay away from offering predictions but here are a few guidelines of what to watch for tonight.

Wisconsin, Democrats: The contest that everyone is watching for, Wisconsin’s primary effectively marked the end of the primaries in 2004, when Edwards failed to catch up (falling 6% short of Kerry) and Dean finished a distant third. The primary is unlikely to be as decisive this year, but it could determine the momentum going into the final two weeks leading up to March 4th, two weeks with no contest whatsoever (!). Most polls show a narrow Obama leading — ranging from 5% to 13% — but the Clinton campaign has been working the state to make sure the margin stays close.

There are enough undecided voters in those polls to make a Clinton victory possible and if that were to happen it would certainly allow the New York Senator to claim momentum heading into Ohio and Texas and limit the talk of the campaign being already over. Inversely, a big Obama victory — with double-digits — would put the Clinton campaign in even more crisis, and further talk of her impending demise. After all, Wisconsin’s demographics don’t necessarily favor Clinton, but they are favorable enough that she has to keep it close. And this is only taking into account the momentum question. A big loss would also make Clinton fall further behind in the delegate count, which she really cannot afford to do.

A closer Obama victory would probably result in a draw, allowing the campaign dynamics to remain fundamentally the same. Obama would have met the expectations that he wins the state, and Clinton will have met her expectations to keep it close. Her campaign would also be heartened to see that it has managed to halt Obama’s upward movement and would probably attribute this to their efforts to draw more severe contrasts between the two candidates — which would signal to them that they should pursue the strategy going into March.

Something else to watch for, of course, will be the exit polls. First, has Obama made inroads in Clinton’s strongest constituencies (women, blue-collar voters) or is Clinton maintaining her advantage there? If Obama continues to improve among these groups as he did in the Potomac primary, it could spell big trouble for Clinton in two weeks. Second, how much is Obama relying on non-Democrats? The voting anecdotes relayed today by the Journal Sentinel point to many Republican voters and GOP-leaning independents crossing over to the Dem contest to support Obama now that the GOP contest is no longer suspenseful. This is precisely the group of voters that escaped Obama in New Hampshire:

Hawaii, Democrats: There are very few clues we can rely on to know what is going on in Hawaii. There have been no public polls from the state and the fact that the state is holding a caucus makes things even more unpredictable. The conventional wisdom is that Hawaii is Obama’s state to lose, both because it is a caucus and because it is the state he grew up in.

Washington, Democrats: I devoted a post yesterday morning to exploring what we are to do with the results from Washington. The Clinton campaign will be hoping to advance its anti-caucus argument here and answer the question: Do caucuses really benefit Obama? So we will have to compare Tuesday’s results with those of the January 9th caucus, which Obama won 68% to 31%. This will have no effect on the delegate race, but if Clinton pulls significantly closer, they will use the results to hit the pledged delegate count.

Republicans: McCain has still not hit a majority of delegates, but he is very close, especially with Romney’s support. The main question in GOP primaries right now is whether Huckabee can embarrass McCain some more, as he did on February 9th and almost repeated in Virginia. Huckabee is counting on Texas to pull off another upset, and it looks very unlikely that he will be able to get close in Wisconsin, which should allow McCain to get all or most of the state’s delegates. In Washington state, the fact that this is a primary should favor McCain, who barely pulled out last week’s caucuses 26% to 24%. And don’t forget that there are delegates at stake here.


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What do we do about the Washington primary?

Believe it or not, there is a primary in Washington state on Tuesday. Ten days after the caucuses that overwhelmingly awarded their delegates to Obama and that McCain very narrowly prevailed in (after a quite chaotic count), the state voters are once again called to the polls to determine two new winners.

There will be delegates awarded in the GOP contest (19 of them, mostly on a proportional basis), but none in the Democratic one, making Tuesday’s primary between Obama and Clinton yet another beauty contest. But that does not mean there will not be voters. 250,000 participated in the caucuses on the 8th, much more are expected to participate in the primary. The New York Times reports that turnout of about half the state’s voters — 1,5 million in both parties — is expected on Tuesday.

So it is obvious that the results will look rather different than the caucus ones did — and I’m not even talking about complicating factor like whether those who went to caucus will think of the fact that they should vote again in the primary if they want their vote to be counted in that election too. But since there are no delegates in play at all for Democrats — and we know how this is now all down to delegates — does it matter at all?

In fact, the Washington primary could end up being an important part of the spin war because it will provide one empirical answer to “the caucus question:” Do caucuses really benefit Obama, perhaps even in a way that is unfair? That is the argument of the Clinton camp, and since they are trailing widely in the delegate count of states like CO, MN, ID that hold caucuses, it is in their interest to imply that the result — and thus the delegate count — would have been much closer had the states held primary. This argument is of course designed to provide superdelegates the cover to vote against Obama if he leads among pledged delegates at the end of the day.

So we will have to compare Tuesday’s results with those of the caucus, which Obama won 68% to 31%. It looks very improbable that the same kind of margin can be sustained in a primary, so Obama certainly does not have to win with this big a margin. But it is also clear that the closer Hillary gets, the better positioned she will be to argue that caucuses are undemocratic and that their results should be taken with care. And inversely, the less Obama gives ground the stronger his rebuttal to Clinton.

Where do we draw the line? How close does it have to get for Clinton to have a point? That’s entirely due to the spin war and to the perception out of Tuesday.


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Feb. 9th results thread: Obama sweeps all states, Huckabee delays coronation

morning: Louisiana ended up going for Huckabee by the tiniest of margins, 43% to 42%. As I explained in my 10:40pm update, that gives him no delegates, but the symbolism of his winning yet another Southern state says a lot about the distrust McCain still inspires. But Huckabee failed to complete the 3-state sweep by falling short in Washington, 26% to 24%. Paul is third at 21%.

11pm: With 78% reporting, McCain is now ahead 26% to 24% in Washington. In Louisiana, with 87% reporting Huckabee’s lead has fallen to 44% to 42% with the two candidates now going for an entirely symbolic victory (see 10:40pm).

10:40pm: Everything has got to be complicated in this year’s contests, and the Louisiana GOP process is one of them. The state has 47 total delegates, 27 of whom are for sure going to be decided at a state convention to be held on February 16th. The delegates to this state convention were chosen at caucuses held on January 22nd. It was the day of Thompson’s withdrawal, and uncommitted got a large number of votes so it’s difficult to project the allocation of these delegates.
The remaining 20 delegates will be allocated to the winner of today’s primary but only if that winner crosses 50%! Otherwise, those 20 delegates will also be chosen by next week’s convention! Right now, Huckabee is at 47% with 58% reporting. So unless he crosses that 50% threshold, he will get no delegates out of today’s primary. (The GOP rules of delegate allocation are consistently favoring McCain in a remarkable streak of luck for the front-runner).

10:15pm: As expected, Louisiana is called for Obama. He leads 53-39 with 30% in. Among Republicans, Huckabee leads 48% to 38%, but New Orleans has not reported at all, and McCain could narrow the gap there (not that there are many GOP voters in New Orleans).
In another big development (and I’m not being ironic), Obama wins the Virgin Islands. The campaign was projecting a win here, but the size of Obama’s victory is such that he took all 3 delegate votes here. That means the vote of the Virgin Islands will be more important to deciding the nominee than that of, say, Missouri! And in a contest where every delegate count, a three delegate lead is very significant. (It is worth noting that Clinton won the American Samoa and 2 of its 3 delegates on Tuesday). Also, about 2,000 votes were cast which makes the Virgin Islands very well represented at the Dem convention.
Meanwhile, in Washington, Huckabee has taken the lead! With 37% reporting, he is ahead 27% to 23% for McCain and 21% for Paul. Romney is interestingly polling very strong here, at 18% (Note: only one part of the GOP’s WA are selected today, another part is linked to the primary results of February 19th).

10pm: I have not said anything of the GOP’s Washington caucuses just yet, when it is shaping to be a very close race: With 16% reporting, McCain has 26.6%, Huckabee 25.9% and Ron Paul 21.2%. In Louisiana, Huckabee is up 46% to 38% with 16% reporting as well. Will Huckabee manage a sweep of today’s 3 GOP contests?

9:40pm: With 75% reporting, Clinton now trails 67% to 32% in Washington. In Nebraska, 99% are in and the final results are 68% Obama and 32% Clinton. And the first district ended up crossing the threshold of a 4-2 allocation, giving Obama 65%. The third stayed close between the two, which means a 2-2 split of delegates there. The second will split 5-1 (a disastrous result for Hillary here), for a total of 11-5. The 8 remaining delegates will be allocated statewide and will go 5-3 for Obama. That brings us to a 16-8 result, a very good margin for Obama in such a small state.
In Louisiana, the results are just starting to come in, with Obama and McCain slightly up. The second wave of Dem exit polls has the electorate slightly less dramatically polarized along racial lines than what was shown at 9pm, but still a very large racial gap. The GOP exit poll has a McCain-Huckabee tie.

9:00pm: The Louisiana exit polls have Obama up in high single digits, crushing her among the black vote (by more than usual) and being trounced among the white vote (by more than usual). Among people with no college degree (64%), the two are tied. Among those with such a degree, Obama leads by 20%. No call yet.

8:50pm: Washington is called for Obama.
In Nebraska, an update on the delegates with some potential good news for Clinton. As I said at 8:40pm, Obama crushed Clinton in the second district and should probably get a 5-1 split. However, in the third district with 80% counted Obama is leading only 52% to 47%. That means that Clinton forced a delegate split, 2 for each. In the first district, things are more unclear. With 50% counted, Obama is ahead with 58% “only.” If that number holds, the district’s 6 delegates will be split equally, 3-3 (Obama needs to get more than 59%).
One more complicating factor: The results based on which convention delegates will be allocated are the percentages of state delegates won by each candidate — just like in Iowa. And the breakdown of that is unclear (it will be important in the first district). Yes, it’s confusing. What more do you expect from a caucus?

8:40pm: With 50% of Washington’s precincts reporting, Obama is ahead 67% to 32%. This is going to probably have a dramatic impact on the delegate count (obviously no precise breakdown can be provided for now).
In Nebraska, as I said all districts are even delegate districts (6, 6 and 4). That would have given Clinton a chance to tie Obama at an 8-8 split if she had held him under 59%. But we now have results from the second district, with Obama won with 76%. If I am not mistaken, that means a 5-1 split in delegates (to be confirmed). However,

8:30pm: As expected, the Nebraska caucuses are called for Obama as well. With 73% in, Obama is ahead 69% to 31%. Clinton’s ads in the state did not manage to reduce the margin here. This should also create some delegate margins, as all 3 districts are even delegates. With 69%, Obama should get favorable splits in all of them, not to mention the statewide breakdown.

8:20pm: Washington state is reporting fast, and Obama is heading to a big victory. With 34% in, Obama is ahead 66% to 32%. Caucuses are delivering big for Obama again.

Original Post: Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana (and the Virgin Islands) are holding Democratic contests today. None is expected to be particularly close, with my preview of these contests available here. At issue is mainly the margin between the candidates and whether there is a significant delegate discrepancy. The only indication we have for now is turnout, and it appears to have been big even in a Republican state like Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald describes the intensity of the operations there as “overwhelming.”

On the Republican side, Louisiana and Washington still have to decide a winner. Kansas held caucuses earlier in the day, and Mike Huckabee handily won, 60% to 24% for John McCain, with 11% for Ron Paul. That gives him the state’s 36 pledged delegates (the system is not winner-take-all but McCain would have to win one of the three districts to get a delegate, and the big loss makes it unlikely that he did that). This win is hardly a surprise given that committed conservatives dominate caucuses, and that is the group McCain has not been able to appeal to at all. In fact, Romney won almost all the caucuses held on Super Tuesday, often with very healthy margins.


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It’s Election Day, again: Can Clinton win a state this week-end?

Three states are voting today on the Democratic side, with one primary (Louisiana) and two caucuses (Washington and Nebraska). Tomorrow, another caucus will announce its results in Maine.

Barack Obama is favored to win the February primaries, leading to March 4th’s Ohio and Texas. A poll yesterday had Clinton leading in Wisconsin, but a few more will be needed before expectations switch. These next four days are especially difficult for Clinton, as she is heading to a potentially disastrous Potomac primary on Tuesday. Two new polls from Maryland and Virginia were released this morning, and they show how dire the situation could be in Clinton come Wednesday morning:

  • Rasmussen shows Obama crushing Clinton in Maryland, 57% to 31%. Black voters split 82-12 in Obama’s favor, while whites split equally between the two.
  • The numbers are barely better in Virginia, where Rasmussen shows Obama up 55% to 37%, a result very much consistent with the SUSA and Insider Advantage polls we saw yesterday. Obama leads among white men in this Rasmussen poll, and Clinton manages a slightly higher proportion of the black vote, 22%.

These two surveys underscore just how important it is for Clinton to (1) keep the margins relatively closer come Tuesday and (2) get a win this week-end among the four voting states to prevent a seven-state sweep by Obama heading into Wisconsin.

But can Clinton deliver even one victory? Judging by the results on Tuesday, both Louisiana and Nebraska look good for Obama, who did very well both in the deep South and in a red-state caucus. Louisiana’s is attributing 56 delegates, and polls close at 9pm ET (and it is a closed primary). In Nebraska, there are 24 delegates at stake and caucuses will take place all throughout the day, the earliest starting at 11:00am ET and the last closing at 9:30pm ET. Clinton did make an effort in both of these states, for example running an ad in Nebraska touting Bob Kerrey’s endorsement.

Washington is a very confusing state: It holds both caucuses (today) and primaries (on the 19th). But the primary will determine no delegate at all and is only a beauty contest. First caucuses begin at 4pm ET, last ones end at 9pm ET. Now, Obama has been organizing in this state much earlier than Clinton, and he has 5 offices. A SUSA poll released this morning shows that only about a third of Democrats who are thinking of voting will participate in the caucuses, and those favor Obama 63% to 33%. Among all voters, they are pretty much tied.

This underscores the difficulty Clinton faces among these caucus states and such a large loss could create a disproportionate allocation of delegates, of which there are 78 at stake. And Clinton has been aggressively pushing the narrative of the undemocratic nature of the caucus process (a sentiment with which I agree, as I wrote at the end of 2007, 10 days before Iowa). From today’s New York Times preview:

Mrs. Clinton… suggested that she did not expect to win in Washington, as many of her supporters would be too busy working to break away from their schedules and spend the time to caucus for her.

“If this were a primary, where everybody could vote all day, I’d feel pretty good about it,” she said. “But it’s not. It’s a caucus.”

In the search for an explanation as to why Obama performs so much better in caucus states rather than primary states (the main explanation I gave for now was that Obama actually organized and ran ads in many of Super Tuesday’s caucus states whereas Clinton did not), Clinton might have a point here, as her electorate tends to be more working-class than Obama’s, so that it is natural to expect her to be more affected by the fact that the caucus system expects you to devote a few hours of your time at a determined hour. That was less of a problem in Iowa and Nevada because the publicity of these contests — particularly in Iowa — allowed all campaigns to prepare for caucus night, find people to baby-sit your children, etc.

Clinton’s best chance could be tomorrow in the Maine caucuses, a state with few students and with a large working-class electorate. 24 delegates are stake here, so whoever wins will not get a big delegate advantage at all, but it could symbolically prove as important than the other contests given that Obama could use Maine to make life very difficult for Clinton in the coming weeks.

It is also worth noting that the Virgin Islands will also vote today and 3 delegates are at stake. In the situation we are in now where every delegate counts, one candidate will emerge with a small advantage of one delegate (Clinton did in American Samoa).



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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