Archive for the 'WA-03' Category

Open seats: Dems clarify plans in PA-12, candidates withdraw in WA-03

Published
by
Taniel
on February 24, 2010
in PA-12 and WA-03
. 3 Comments

As Joyce Murtha rules out bid, other Dems clarify plans

While Democrats looked very interested in the possibility that Joyce Murtha might run for her late husband’s seat in the May 18th primary, but she announced she would do no such thing, thus leaving the field wide open. While her decision might complicate matters for Democrats in the short-term (widows tend to be strong candidates in special elections, however unjustified their candidacies), it will allow Democrats to work towards electing someone who could then try to defend his job even if this district is combined with a Republican-leaning district in the next round of redistricting, as I discussed last week.

It remains to be seen who that Democrat will be, however. Murtha’s decision has allowed other Democrats to come public with their plans. If former Treasurer Barbara Hafer said she wanted to run last week, this week brought a number of new contenders - starting with former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, Murtha’s former district director Mark Critz and Cambria County Controller Ed Cernic. (Remember that there will be no primary; rather, the party’s state executive committee will choose a general election candidate at a March 8th meeting, three days before a committee of GOP leaders selects its nominee.)

Singel is be the highest-profile name on that list. (He was the party’s gubernatorial nominee in 1994, and his 6% defeat to Tom Ridge was the occasion of a deep rift with outgoing Democratic Governor Casey, who did not campaign for Singel, perhaps over of abortion.) Yet, he has worked as a lobbyist for a Philadelphia law-firm, which is certainly not the best resume line with which to run for office - especially given the current economic conditions, especially in a hard-hit place like Western Pennsylvania. However, some local party officials might be reluctant to support Hafer, who was a Republican until 2002 and as far as I know has never before ran for office as a Democrat. That alone should make Critz a credible contender for the party’s nod; after all, as Murtha’s district director he forged close relationships with local officials, which should serve him well now that all he needs is to secure their support.

Interestingly, Republicans have not been able to get anyone interested in running except their 2008 nominee William Russell and businessman Tim Burns, neither of which would give the GOP as clear a shot at winning as the party was hoping to have when the seat became vacant. Indeed, whatever the national mood, let’s not forget that few districts have received as much federal money as PA-12, and most voters are probably aware of that. The GOP nominee might be very successful campaigning against Washington and against Democratic policies, but to run against the earmarking process or express pride in ignoring the ways of Congress could prove a tricky proposition to navigate.

The NRCC was hoping to convince wealthy businessman Mark Pasquerilla to seek the GOP nod, as he could try to spend his way to victory, Pasquerilla announced a few days ago that he not only would not run but that he is also endorsing a Democrat, Mark Critz. That came as a clear sign that the district’s increasingly red hue in presidential races has not translated to GOP-friendly conditions at the local level, and also that Murtha’s ability to secure millions of earmarks for the area was a powerful reason for people like Pasquerilla who identity as Republicans to support a Democrat in the special election - at least as long as said Democrat seems to follow in Murtha’s footsteps, as Critz presumably would.

Wallace withdraws in in WA-03

Within weeks of Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement, it seemed like the Democratic field to replace him would oppose centrist state Rep. Deb Wallace to progressive state Senator Craig Pridemore. Yet, a third contender (former Rep. Denny Heck, who has been working in the private sector since the early 1990s) disrupted that expectation: Not only did he indicate he would to self-fund by pouring $100,000 of his own money in his campaign, but he also displayed his institutional backing when he secured the surprise endorsement of Governor Christine Gregoire a few weeks ago. Also supporting Heck are former Governor Booth Gardner, for whom Heck worked twenty years ago, and Don Bonker, who represented the district from 1975 to 1989.

Perhaps as a result of the increased hardship created by Heck’s candidacy, Wallace decided to drop out of the race this week - and in doing so she called on voters to nominate a centrist. “Although Wallace is not making an endorsement for another candidate at this time she believes we need to elect a true moderate Democrat who has the wherewithal to win this election,” her statement said. That certainly rules out her backing Pridemore, though I am unable to determine whether Heck fits Baird and Wallace’s centrist mold enough for this primary to feature the clear ideological fault lines it would have had if Pridemore had been opposed to Wallace. With Heck out of public office for two decades, he doesn’t appear to have taken public positions on polarizing matters, which could allow him to play the front-runner card more easily. (For one, we will have to see whether Heck can follow-up his Gregoire endorsement with more high-profile gets.)

As to the question of who Wallace’s withdrawal should favor, the obvious answer would seem to be Heck, since centrist-minded Democrats should be more likely to gravitate towards him, but important geographical factors lead me to think Pridemore is breathing a sigh of relief. While Heck is from Olympia, Wallace and Pridemore are both based around in the Vancouver part of WA-03, and their legislative districts overlap are adjacent; had they both been in the race, they would have been competing over the same turf (the region they already represent), thus undermining their best chance to clinch victory.

Today, a Republican candidate also withdrew: Washougal Mayor Pro Tem Jon Russell dropped out. Russell indicated that he was only raising $500 per month, which probably means he wouldn’t have been a big factor had he stayed in. Here also, there will be a contested primary between state Rep. Jaime Herrera and financial consultant David Castillo, who was already running before Baird retired.

Dems struggling to find candidate in Alabama, Texas

Published
by
Taniel
on December 29, 2009
in AL-05, TX-10 and WA-03
. 9 Comments

For a few days, Democrats found themselves hoping they could still recapture AL-05 - which would not only be helpful on a political level, but also on a viscerally personal one: What better way to get back at a turncoat than to end his political career? Yet, their most obvious shot at contesting the district evaporated today: Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks ended days of speculation that he might challenge Parker Griffith by announcing he would stick to the Governor’s race instead.

The emergence of Sparks’s name as a potential House candidate was not just fruitful thinking on Democrats’ part. Not only had he himself declared he was considering the move, but it would have made perfect sense. Sparks is currently a double underdog in the Governor’s race: He faces an uphill climb to beating Rep. Artur Davis in the Democratic primary, and even if he does beat Davis Alabama is too red a state for Republicans not to be favored in the general election. If he had ran in AL-05, however, Sparks would have coasted to the Democratic nomination and arguably had a stronger shot in the general election: Not that the district is bluer than the state at large, but it has a long history of voting Democratic in non-presidential races. In fact, it has never voted for a Republican in a House race.

Spark’s exit from the House race does not mean Democrats are out of option. For one, Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker would make for a strong candidate; but the problem with this former state Auditor isn’t so much her electability but the fact that it would be very risky for her to run: She is up for re-election in 2010, so challenging Griffith would mean giving up a safe position for a tough race. Other names are also floating, but AL-05 is conservative enough that Democrats are unlikely to be competitive unless they nominate a top-tier contender who has already developed a long relationship with voters.

Of course, even if Democrats fail to contest the seat it won’t mean Griffith can expect an easy cycle, as his two Republican opponents are proving themselves determined to take him down. (Remember: Alabama has a runoff system so Griffith cannot benefit from his opponents’ divisions.) If we heard more about Mo Brooks over the past week, Lee Phillip ensured he would not be forgotten by sending a mailer to the district’s Republican households attacking Griffith’s ties to national Democratic leaders:

To make matters worse for Griffith, we are for the first time hearing that the NRCC did not commit to helping win the primary - at least that’s what GOP sources are telling Politico. It is somewhat incomprehensible that the congressman accepted to switch parties in such conditions: He must have known that it would not be easy for him to be accepted by local Republicans, so how could he not insist that his switch be accompanied by a financial commitment? Sure, he is no Arlen Specter but it still seems to be something the NRCC would have ended up accepting.

Another district in which Democrats are having recruiting difficulties is TX-10: I already wrote about the district last week, when Jack McDonald’s surprisingly dropped-out of the race. But the catch is that the filing deadline is this coming Monday, and Democrats now have absolutely no one seeking their party’s nomination. Sure, targeting Rep. Michael McCaul isn’t the DCCC’s priority but failing him to field any candidate would be a big setback: The incumbent looked surprisingly weak in 2008, so Democrats shouldn’t allow him to calmly build up his profile while running unopposed. It looks like 2008 nominee Larry Joe Doherty is taking a look at the race in the wake of McDonald’s withdrawal, but his supporters only have 5 days to convince him.

In fact, Democrats are facing a broader Texas problem: A SSP diarist shows that, while are all 12 Democratic incumbents have drawn opponents, only 9 of 20 Republicans are facing challengers! Running unopposed at the moment are: Ultra-conservative Rep. Gohmert (TX-10), Rep. Poe (TX-02), Rep. Johnson (TX-03), Rep. Hall (TX-04), Rep. Culberson (TX-07), Rep. Brady (TX-08), Rep. McCaul, Rep. Granger (TX-12) and Rep. Thornberry (TX-13). Like McCaul, Culberson had shown some signs of weakness in 2008.

Of course, Democrats have no chance of ever winning most of these 11 districts, but that does not mean that this discrepancy won’t have deleterious effects on the party’s performance up and down the ballot: The lack of Democratic challengers could negatively affect turnout since Bill White will be the only Democrat at the top of the ballot in more than a third of the state!

One district in which neither party is having any difficulty recruiting, meanwhile, is WA-03. Hotline On Call walks us through the latest developments in the race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird. As I wrote earlier this month, Democrats were already facing an ideologically clear choice between centrist state Rep. Deb Wallace and more mainstream state Senator Craig Pridemore. Another high-profile candidate has emerged: ex-state Rep. Denny Heck has not run for office since the 1980s, but he remained involved in political circles and could use his personal funds to finance his campaign. It’s unclear how he would position himself vis-a-vis Wallace and Pridemore. On the GOP side, I am surprised no elected official has emerged to challenge 31-year old state Rep. Jaime Herrerra (other state legislators’ names were being floated), but she is sure to face competition; conservative activists are perhaps looking for a candidate to rally around.

House: Confusion reigns in Hawaii, Herseth-Sandlin’s shaky, WA Dems prepare primary

Published
by
Taniel
on December 16, 2009
in HI-01, SD-AL and WA-03
. 10 Comments

Before we go to the meat of this post (House races!), I want to update my afternoon post on North Carolina polling because I’ll never cease to be amazed by national Democrats’ utter disdain for Marshall. Despite the fact that the Secretary of State is electable and that she would be a more reliable vote for Democrats than Cunningham if she joined the Senate, we now learn that Barack Obama has taken the time to call Cunningham, ensuring he gets covered as having the White House’s implicit support. (This is only the third primary I can think of in which Obama is getting involved with another goal than supporting the incumbent, the other two being NY-Gov and WI-Gov. Am I missing any?)

Hawaii special might be conducted by mail

Rep. Neil Abercrombie was hoping that leaving the House would help him campaigning in Hawaii’s gubernatorial race, but his decision could still come back to haunt him. The state’s Chief Elections Officer Kevin Cronin is insisting that the state has no money to organize a special election: the estimated cost is $2 million, a sum the Office of Elections cannot cover since it already facing a deficit. Abercrombie has already been facing criticism from state Democrats for leaving the state without representation and for endangering the party’s hold on the district, but his resignation’s financial burden should give his opponents powerful ammunition.

It is still unclear what will happen when Abercrombie does finalize his resignation in the coming weeks. Cronin hasn’t ruled out trying to delay the special election until the regularly scheduled September primary; that would seem to go against state law, but what does occur when state officials refuse to organize an election? Alternatively, a mail-in vote could be organized, i.e. voters would only be able to mail in their ballots; this system exists in Oregon, but can Hawaii effectively implement it in just a few months?

These discussions are only making more chaotic an already confused situation: The two Democrats who were already planning to run in next year’s race are not backing down from their plans to both run in the special election, which could help the sole Republican candidate score a pick-up since there will be no primary. In fact, former Rep. Case is already out with the election’s first TV ad. (I already pointed out last week that liberals will want to ensure Case’s defeat because he is far more conservative than is called for in a blue district. But I failed to mention that if he wins Case would be well placed to move up to the Senate once one of the state’s aging senators retires, and it would be quite a blow to the left if Akaka or Inouye were replaced by a Lieberman ally.)

Herseth Sandlin retains a lead, but she is on shaky ground

Public Policy Polling tested South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s prospects of holding on to SD-AL. The good news for Herseth Sandlin: Unlike many other Democratic incumbents who represent tough territory, she doesn’t find herself trailing just any Republican she’s tested against. In fact, she leads a statewide official outside of the margin of error: Against Secretary of State Chris Nelson, she comes out ahead 46% to 39%. Also meaningful is the margin by which she crushes state Rep. Blake Curd 52% to 31%; Curd might be a low-profile opponent, but the bottom line is that voters aren’t rushing to support the GOP nominee and that more than half are willing to commit to supporting the incumbent.

On the other hand, those results also reveal that Herseth Sandlin’s standing is shaky. Not only is she under 50% in her match-up with Nelson, but the Secretary of State’s name recognition is a surprisingly low 41%, which means he has more room to grow than his title might suggest. Furthermore, Herseth Sandlin’s approval rating stands at 49-38, which is not particularly impressive for a state like South Dakota that tends to prize its incumbents. In short, Herseth Sandlin remains favored as she enters 2010 but she certainly has a competitive race on her hand; that’s quite a change of fortunes for someone who just a few months ago was considering seeking higher office.

In WA-03, both parties get their favored candidates

Of the four Dem-held seats that opened up in recent weeks, WA-03 is clearly the most competitive on paper (it swung from Bush to Obama in the past two elections) - and it looks like this will translate in a top-notch battle as both parties are getting some of the candidates they were hoping for. On the GOP side, the party’s standard-bearer could be 31-year old state Rep. Jaime Herrera; a protege of Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rogers, she served as an intern in the Bush White House. While she is certainly far younger than your average congressional candidate, she does appear to have enough political experience to be a strong candidate. It remains to be seen not only how easily she’ll coast to the nomination.

On the Democratic side, we are heading towards a primary between state Senator Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace; the latter is already in the race while the former is reportedly getting there. A third candidate has also jumped in the race: Maria Rodriguez Salazar, an activist and the former vice president for the League of United Latin American Citizens. All 3 candidates appear divided by stark ideological contrasts: Pridemore looks like he would be a mainstream Democrat while Wallace appears like she’d stay true to Baird’s legacy. As for Rodriguez Salazar, she’s introducing herself as a “conservative” and a “Blue Dog.”

This would be important in any primary, but potentially all the more so in WA-03: Local Democrats will want to pay special attention to electing a more reliable congressman than Brian Baird had become (he was a member of the New Democratic Coalition and a rare Democrat from an Obama district to oppose the health-care bill) and thus seize on this opportunity to push the House a bit to the left. My sense is that Pridemore starts as the favorite: Not only does he have a bigger geographic base, but his district contains a larger share of Democrats than Wallace’s, who’ll have to compete with Rodriguez Salazar for the centrist vote. Yet, much of this wil depends on how national Democrats and unions behave and on whether Emily’s List gets involved.

Yet another Democrat unexpectedly retires

Published
by
Taniel
on December 9, 2009
in PA-11 and WA-03
. 11 Comments

For the third time in three weeks, a Democratic congressman who represents a competitive district announced he would retire: Rep. Brian Baird will not seek re-election in 2010, striking yet another blow to the DCCC’s hopes of not giving the GOP any easy pick-up opportunities.

Baird, who is only 53, was on no retirement watch lists. Just last week, the NRCC leaked a memo that listed 17 representatives it sought could be pushed towards retirement if their tranquility was sufficiently perturbed by; Baird was not included among those 17 Democrats. As such, his decision comes as an unexpected gift to Republicans who now have yet another vulnerable seat contest: WA-03 becomes the Democrats’ 6th open seat headache of the cycle, following NH-02, PA-07, LA-03, KS-03 and TN-08.

While that number remains low by historical standards, there is no question that Democrats are starting to play with fire: Not only are open seats are the first to fall in tough environments, but most of the districts I listed above would have been unlikely to be competitive next year had the incumbent ran for re-election. The NRCC is expanding the map without even having to lift a finger - and the more such opportunities it receives the easiest it will be for the party to score big gains next year.

Furthermore, Baird’s decision is arguably the first sign we have gotten that these recent developments might be more than isolated incidents. As of three weeks ago, not a single member of Congress had announced an outright retirement; now, three have - and all of them happen to be Democrats who represents marginal districts. How many more are seriously mulling following suit? Why is the DCCC not succeeding at convincing those members who wouldn’t have to worry about a competitive re-election race to wait it out two more years so that Democrats don’t have to defend their seat in such inhospitable conditions?

The list of Democrats to watch going forward can mostly be found on the NRCC memo I mentioned above: Reps. Ike Skelton, Bart Gordon, Rick Boucher, Alan Mollohan, Marion Berry, Nick Rahall, Mike Ross, John Spratt, Allen Boyd, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Holden, Collin Peterson, Sanford Bishop, Loretta Sanchez and Leonard Boswell. Another to keep an eye on are Rep. Peter DeFazio, who has yet to decide whether he’ll run for Governor.

WA-03 is sure to be competitive: Bush won by 2% in 2000 and in 2004 while Obama prevailed 52% to 46% last year, the district’s PVI is even and Republicans already have a candidate in the race: A mere hour after Baird’s announcement, state Rep. Jaime Herrera jumped in the race to succeed him. She’s likely to face a competitive primary, but that goes to show that Republicans believe in their chances. As for Democrats, Hotline floats the names of two state legislators, perhaps most importantly state Senator Craig Pridemore.

At least, defending WA-03 will not be a nightmare like LA-03. Sure, the DCCC would have rather dealt with this open seat in 2008 or in 2012 (higher turnout would have benefited their party and the environment would have been better) but it’s not like the district is hostile to Democrats. Even in 2000, during which Bush actually contested Washington, he didn’t score more than a 2% victory - nor in 2004, which was a more pro-GOP year; in fact, that Kerry maintained Gore’s level of support despite weakening nationally suggests WA-03 has been trending more Democratic. Furthermore, Baird easily picked-up the seat in a 1998 open race - and he has never won by less than 15% since then.

We’ll also keep an eye on who Democrats nominate, since this might be an opportunity for liberals to move the caucus slightly to the left: Baird was known as a centrist on economic matters. A member of the New Democratic Coalition, he was one of just 8 Democrats from an Obama district to vote against the health-care bill last month -  a move that was particularly frustrating to the leadership given that Baird wasn’t vulnerable. This predates the current Congress: Baird voted for the permanent repeal of the estate tax in 2005, for instance.

House Democrats receive still more bad news

Baird’s retirement is not the only reason for the NRCC to celebrate tonight: Hazleton Mayor (and hardline immigration foe) Lou Barletta announced he would seek a rematch against Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who narrowly defeated him last year after trailing for much of the campaign. Barletta’s decision guarantees that PA-11 will host a highly competitive race next fall, as he is sure to receive heavy support from the NRCC - not to mention enthusiastic support from already motivated conservatives.

Sure, this will be the third confrontation between the two men (Barletta also lost in 2002), which is usually reason to say that the challenger doesn’t have much of a chance. Indeed, it remains to be seen whether Barletta can position himself as a viable contender after the millions the DCCC poured into negative ads attacking him in the past cycles - the type of attack that leaves durable traces and often dooms repeat candidates.

Yet, no one denies Kanjorski is highly vulnerable; last year, he was only saved by Obama’s unexpectedly strong coattails - and even that barely proved sufficient since the congressman significantly underperformed the president. Not only will he not benefit from similar turnout patterns in 2010, but the electorate’s anti-incumbent mood has presumably only weakened his standing. Add to that the credible primary challenge he is facing from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien, and Kanjorski undoubtedly becomes one of the cycle’s most vulnerable incumbents - so much so that he could very well drop out at this point. That would be one retirement Democrats would most likely welcome.